TRADER'S CORNER

For ever odd · 24-04-2015 5:37pm #1

Trade idea's, technical, fundamentals and anything trade related.

Fizman · 25-04-2015 2:08pm

DAX took a big hit over the last week or so mainly due to Greece. Looks quite cheap right now. Have made nice gains off it this week and hope to get a piece of it's pie as it (hopefully) trundles back up to the 12500 mark. Crazy swings right now though, so my stops have been small so happy to take a few little hits for a few big gains.

arrowloopboy · 26-04-2015 9:00pm

Bought Twitter Friday evening ,they report Tuesday after the bell ,short term ,hoping for good numbers ,as alot of the sector have already reported good numbers.

colman1212 · 27-04-2015 4:37am

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Bought Twitter Friday evening ,they report Tuesday after the bell ,short term ,hoping for good numbers ,as alot of the sector have already reported good numbers.

Out of interest, what kind of tax are you liable for in Ireland on profits from short term trades? I know its quite high here in oz if you sell within 12 months.

For ever odd · 27-04-2015 6:45am

33% CGT is the same if you hold for 1 hour or 10 years. Spreadbetting which arrow is doing above, is0%

facing_west · 27-04-2015 11:58am

Fizman wrote: »

DAX took a big hit over the last week or so mainly due to Greece. Looks quite cheap right now. Have made nice gains off it this week and hope to get a piece of it's pie as it (hopefully) trundles back up to the 12500 mark. Crazy swings right now though, so my stops have been small so happy to take a few little hits for a few big gains.

what is the PE of the DAX currently , read contrasting figures , is it 16 ?

arrowloopboy · 27-04-2015 6:25pm

Just also bought T Mobile U.S @ 3439,they also report Q1 earnings tomorrow,should be good.

For ever odd · 27-04-2015 8:45pm

Apple are reporting tonight. I have no position but I like to watch the crazy moves. Way way to volatile for me.

ftse100 · 27-04-2015 9:10pm

Opened an Apple CFD Position this morning with IG. Doing pretty well. Don't know whether to close before or after earnings.

For ever odd · 27-04-2015 9:42pm

Wow a 600 point candle in 1 minute.

arrowloopboy · 27-04-2015 11:03pm

Was thinking of trading it ,thank fcuk I didn't ,that 1 minute candle dropped 340 odd points before reversing ,too much action.

paisley2 · 28-04-2015 7:17pm

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Bought Twitter Friday evening ,they report Tuesday after the bell ,short term ,hoping for good numbers ,as alot of the sector have already reported good numbers.

Hi Arrow
Out of curiosity is this a one off punt on TWTR earnings or are you trading an Earnings Strategy?
Personally I never hold a short term swing position through earnings and only ⅓ of my original position on a Long Term trend strategy is held over earnings.

arrowloopboy · 28-04-2015 8:35pm

paisley2 wrote: »

Hi Arrow
Out of curiosity is this a one off punt on TWTR earnings or are you trading an Earnings Strategy?
Personally I never hold a short term swing position through earnings and only ⅓ of my original position on a Long Term trend strategy is held over earnings.

Hi Paisley ,these earnings trades aren't part of my main trading approach ,I trade a few of them every year ,on a roll over or near 1/4 contract ,I don't generally take punts,thats for mugs ,if I believe through a bit of research that a company may be reporting good numbers,it can be a good kick star on a position that I can hold for a few months .
Usually its no more that 1% of my a/c devided into a 5% s/l ,with a target of 5% minimum,and the s/l set at b/e asap or a trailing stop.
I also bought T Mobile yesterday,they also report after 9 tonight.

For ever odd · 28-04-2015 8:46pm

Oh dear, twitter bid at 40 ask at 45 in halted trading. What a mess.
Earnings were leaked early

arrowloopboy · 28-04-2015 8:56pm

Thank god for g/s/ls ,down 18%:eek:,in a few minutes ,oops:D.

For ever odd · 28-04-2015 9:00pm

Maybe a buy for a retrace?

Fizman · 29-04-2015 4:12pm

Serious movement today!

DAX down 400 and EUR/USD up past 11150.

For ever odd · 29-04-2015 8:50pm

Fizman wrote: »

Serious movement today!

DAX down 400 and EUR/USD up past 11150.

Currency and index seem to move in opposite directions these days. I think before all this QE craic, they moved in the same direction.

dasdog · 30-04-2015 5:45pm

For ever odd wrote: »

Currency and index seem to move in opposite directions these days. I think before all this QE craic, they moved in the same direction.

I've noticed this too e.g., sell NAS100 flash on the US job numbers @ 1:30 this afternoon. I presume the logic is simple as big tech profit forecasts being hit by currency headwinds in the case of NAS.

AUD was absolutely crushed today from its recent highs that looked unsustainable. I may get another position open if there is a bounce.

GBP still thinks the sun will never set on the empire that started mid-April. It's been behaving irrationally and not falling when it "should". It's been recovering quickly after bad news and overshooting the bad pre-print level (in USD case anyway). When the dam bursts on that one it could be very interesting.

For ever odd · 01-05-2015 6:25pm

@ dasdog

Good shout on sterling, as it tanked today. Are you planning to stay short for a while?

dasdog · 01-05-2015 8:09pm

I saw some technical's this morning that kept it in a range and didn't jump in when when UK Manufacturing PMI came out. I thought there may be more upward irrationality so focussed on AUD which I traded beautifully when EUR attempted its 1270 breaches (AUD has been moving sympathetically in line with EUR).

Misread the 15:00 US print later as slightly negative and gave up most of today's gains in the furore. Was the data really that good?

USD/JPY is 120,275 at the moment which I see as over valued unless you want to put me right with today's US data.

AUD/USD I'll short again but get out of before Tuesdays RBA decision as the rate cut is apparently media hyped but the trajectory should be downward before the decision at 5:30am.

For ever odd · 01-05-2015 8:56pm

USD/JPY

Japan practically imports all of it's oil, so the rise in oil prices could be weighing on the yen. The divergence in economic policy also has to be taken into account. If I remember correctly,I read 140 been mentioned as a target for year end.
I don't really follow the yen.
15:00 data wasnt great, while it missed estimates slightly it held the same as the previous month. My read on it would be, that with all the misses lately it was as good as a beat and gave some buyers a reason to get back in.

Edit:
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 15 are reporting growth in April in the following order: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; and Primary Metals. The two industries reporting contraction in April are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.

dasdog · 01-05-2015 9:35pm

15:00 does seem like "close enough". JPY is a relatively safe one as its not volatile. Whatever Fed member Williams said seems to be doing the trick as its heading toward 119 now. All is not rosey in the US garden gentle reminder.

I'd treat anything above 0.78 AUD/USD good to short before Tuesday but keep an eye on Iron Ore and 5:30am is not a time to be awake making decisions.

GBP pre-election is hard to call after the fall today.

Have a good weekend.

For ever odd · 01-05-2015 10:02pm

GBP
Met up with a couple of mates last night that were back from UK for long weekend. They work in construction and are making over a grand a week sterling. They reckon it's absolutely booming over there and there is a big shortage of workers. compere that to the data coming out of the UK.

Have a good one!

For ever odd · 06-05-2015 9:17am

Any views on the non farm payrolls this Friday?

dasdog · 06-05-2015 11:04am

For ever odd wrote: »

Any views on the non farm payrolls this Friday?

Cautiously bullish but waiting for today's ADP data at 13:15 for some more clarity.

The non-manufacturing ISM was good yesterday which supports the case but the market decided otherwise after I stepped in long. Playing this by the Franc which looks quite strong at the moment.

dasdog · 06-05-2015 1:21pm

Looks like the bears were right yesterday.

Positions closed. US appears to be heading in the wrong direction fast.

Fizman · 06-05-2015 2:34pm

This is what stumps me with the DOW though. The data is poor (US productivity first back to back below exp quarterlies since 1993), yet Wall St barely shuddered and still around the 18000 mark.

Fizman · 06-05-2015 2:49pm

And literally as I typed that, there's a sudden drop of 150 pts!

For ever odd · 06-05-2015 3:04pm

dasdog wrote: »

Looks like the bears were right yesterday.

Positions closed. US appears to be heading in the wrong direction fast.

Why do you say that? Is the US economy faltering and heading for a recession or is it just not growing fast enough? Although the US is missing estimates, the numbers are fairly decent.

dasdog · 06-05-2015 4:15pm

For ever odd wrote: »

Why do you say that? Is the US economy faltering and heading for a recession or is it just not growing fast enough? Although the US is missing estimates, the numbers are fairly decent.

I'd go for the latter but I heard recession mentioned last week by which I assumed was an overly negative analyst on Bloomberg. I'd say they are far away from that and will take measures to avoid if (big if) there are signs. Expectations were probably just set too high in February/March.

Euro has been doing some serious damage today and I suspect another attack will be mounted on the stops later.

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