TRADER'S CORNER

For ever odd

dasdog wrote: »

Cautiously bullish but waiting for today's ADP data at 13:15 for some more clarity.

The non-manufacturing ISM was good yesterday which supports the case but the market decided otherwise after I stepped in long. Playing this by the Franc which looks quite strong at the moment.

I would be of the same opinion. 213,00 is the forcast, I think anything between 200,000/ 250,000 will steady the ship. 250,000/ 300,000 will give a bit of confidence,with other data releases watched closely to see if there is a change from soft winter data.300,000 >will see June rate hike talk back on the table. 150,000/200,000 will back up soft winter data. 150,000< will confirm economic trouble.Any revisions to past releases have to be noted.
Working off these rough figures,what position(s) do you guys think would be the way to go?

Fizman

Alibaba up 10% in the past hour off the back of earnings. Missed a trick there unfortunately.

dasdog

In contrast to yesterdays ADP the US jobless figures were really good today. I would be shot for treason a long time ago if this was war. Nudging in to the bull ring long against CHF. That's shoot for the stars stuff if the print is good.

Interesting circular to JP Morgan clients posted on Twitter.

For ever odd

dasdog wrote: »

In contrast to yesterdays ADP the US jobless figures were really good today. I would be shot for treason a long time ago if this was war. Nudging in to the bull ring long against CHF. That's shoot for the stars stuff if the print is good.




Lol; not at all, it's part and parcel of the game. If it suits you and your making money,that's all that matters!

dasdog

Sterling just rocketed on the (I assume BBC) exit poll. Day off tomorrow. Going to be a long night/morning. RBA speak at 2:30am. If you noticed they cut rates on Tuesday and the Oz Dollar went up due to the wording. Playing GBP long against AUD so I'll need to box clever.

I still think NFP will miss tomorrow but I'm in a decent profit window with USD/CHF so its about shifting the stop. Hopefully its near the 200k mark. If it beats expectations...:pac:

For ever odd

I will wait till Tuesday/ Wednesday till I trade!
Have a good one!

Fizman

Anyone trading the NFP today?

dasdog

Fizman wrote: »

Anyone trading the NFP today?

I don't see how the numbers can stop the Euro going back to where it was yesterday. I say that after walking straight in to a costly punch early on and going long at $1.118 to recover.

EDIT: Closed and GBP 1.5449 short on.

M three

Apologies if this is the wrong place but can anyone tell me how I find out the 5 largest companies by market cap in India or Nepal?
Have looked on here but it isnt clear to me..

http://www.nepalstock.com.np/

For ever odd

dasdog wrote: »

I don't see how the numbers can stop the Euro going back to where it was yesterday. I say that after walking straight in to a costly punch early on and going long at $1.118 to recover.

EDIT: Closed and GBP 1.5449 short on.

Ah come on, how is anyone supposed to follow this sh1te.
Where is your trade idea, where is your fundamentals, where is your technicals,as in post number 1?

dasdog

For ever odd wrote: »

Ah come on, how is anyone supposed to follow this sh1te.
Where is your trade idea, where is your fundamentals, where is your technicals,as in post number 1?

The move was from chapter ah bollocks where revenge was being sought and most of the previous night and mornings gains being thrown away. Stars aligned with the tories & convicts down under during the marathon. Only plus was a stinker open from March closed and a small net gain overall. Mind needed rest at that stage but the demons got the better of me.

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - For the commodity market, Analysts at TD Securities offered the CFTC Commitment of Traders Report for the week ending May 5th, 2015.

Key Quotes:

"Gold specs aggressively cut long holdings and grew short exposure amid expectations the US employment data will point to recovery and the Fed will tighten monetary conditions later in the year."

"In sharp contrast to gold positioning, silver investors went convincingly net long, as their positioning looked too much toward a correction already."

"Platinum specs removed a tiny bit of both long and short positions, unsure about how well European auto sales would fare and what China data would signal for demand."

"Palladium specs on the short side were fearful that China stimulus measures would spur additional auto sales—nearing a full reversal of early year bearishness."

"Copper investors cut more shorts and added longs, as global inventories decline, supply curtailment announcements continue, and China demand hopes strengthen."

"Crude oil specs covered short futures exposure in response to the rally over the last few weeks as WTI specs continued to reduce shorts, while Brent specs added more to short positions than longs last week."

"Natural gas specs also heavily short-covered last week, taking profits from the currently low price environment."

"Gasoline positions were hardly changed, while heating oil specs reduced net short exposure in accordance with broader energy market sentiment and contrary to growing inventories."
22:35 - FXStreet

CFTC commitments of traders report - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities offered the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for week ending Tuesday, April 28th.

Key Quotes:

"CFTC data for the week through May 5th showed a significant shift in positioning in the JPY, AUD, CAD, GBP and MXN. Net shorts in JPY increased by 26k to –31k contracts. The move comes ahead of extended holidays in Japan. Leveraged funds accounted for the majority of the move."

"We expect JPY weakness (and related positioning) to become more deeply entrenched as we transition into the second half of the year when Fed hike expectations firm; even if the Fed delays hikes until early 2016 we suspect that the BoJ will have to provide additional stimulus. In either scenario, JPY weakness will prevail."

"Positioning in AUD swiftly shifted to a net long of 0.6k contracts, a weekly swing of 28k contracts. This is probably due to the RBA meeting; despite delivering 25bps of cuts the removal of its easing bias provided a lift to the AUD."

"CAD net shorts were reduced by 10.8k contracts to –10.8k (mostly due to leveraged funds). We are not surprised by this change given that we were looking for a USD/CAD to drop to 1.1950, which it did. We think we are nearing the point where USD/CAD longs will be the big trade for the rest of the year."

"Net shorts in GBP were scaled back to 9.4k to –24.8k contracts ahead of UK election week. Expect net shorts to be sharply reduced in next week’s report given the surprising Conservative majority win. As we noted here, we like strategic longs in GBP/CAD and shorts in EUR/GBP."

"EUR net shorts were also pared back by 7.6k contracts to –190k. We do not think this is sustainable however and the rally in EUR/USD looks like it has stalled. Sentiment measures remain bearish and though we expected the countertrend bounce, we think it is an opportune time to get short EUR/USD"

"MXN net shorts increased by 26.7k to –50.1k contracts. CHF net longs increased by 4.0k to 5.3k contracts. The move would consistent with EMFX underperformance. NZD net longs were scaled back by 1.1k to 9.1k contracts. Overall, we estimate that aggregate USD position stands at USD33.2bn (from USD34.7bn last week)."
21:20 - FXStreet

For ever odd

Toyota hit record profits mainly due to weak yen(sales are lower). I will be watching BMW, Daimler and the DAX tomorrow to see if there Is any influence.

EDIT
Bmw and Daimler were down this morning but recovered somewhat. Volkswagen down over 4% for the day, Michelin and Palladium had noted drops too.

For ever odd

I got aggressive today, and shorted the bejasus out of
DAX
Volkswagen
Bmw
Daimler
CAC
Renault
Peugeot
Michelin

May, June and July targets hit today. Time to relax now.

Fizman

For ever odd wrote: »

I got aggressive today, and shorted the bejasus out of
DAX
Volkswagen
Bmw
Daimler
CAC
Renault
Peugeot
Michelin

May, June and July targets hit today. Time to relax now.

Nice work. Out of interest, do you have strict risk management maths that you would typically stick by?

dasdog

For ever odd wrote: »

I got aggressive today, and shorted the bejasus out of
DAX
Volkswagen
Bmw
Daimler
CAC
Renault
Peugeot
Michelin

May, June and July targets hit today. Time to relax now.

Stronger EUR and DAX overcooked? I saw US auto sales mentioned as a factor in April's US Retail expectation tomorrow at 0.2% (compared that to Core Retail at 0.5%).

I don't think there is a clear direction in FX majors at the moment. GBP is defying all the bears. Not even sure if bad data will reverse it tomorrow (GBP/NZD made a huge move yesterday). Zero positions open right now which is rare. Went briefly long on GBP/USD today when it broke 1.56 and closed EUR/USD when it broke 1.125 (opened on Friday) but I've no real ideas. I'll go to follow the trend mode in big bursts if anything.

For ever odd

Fizman wrote: »

Nice work. Out of interest, do you have strict risk management maths that you would typically stick by?

Yes, strict but simple. Yesterday was just one of those days when everything went to plan, for a change.
No trades open. I will not trade for the rest of the week.

For ever odd

dasdog wrote: »

Stronger EUR and DAX overcooked? I saw US auto sales mentioned as a factor in April's US Retail expectation tomorrow at 0.2% (compared that to Core Retail at 0.5%).

I don't think there is a clear direction in FX majors at the moment. GBP is defying all the bears. Not even sure if bad data will reverse it tomorrow (GBP/NZD made a huge move yesterday). Zero positions open right now which is rare. Went briefly long on GBP/USD today when it broke 1.56 and closed EUR/USD when it broke 1.125 (opened on Friday) but I've no real ideas. I'll go to follow the trend mode in big bursts if anything.

In my opinion it's to late to start planning a trade for today. Governor kurdoa is speaking on Friday at 4.40am. Why don't you have a look and throw an idea up here.

Fizman

There's some big US data at 13.30 this afternoon that could be a market mover. If US Retail Sales is decent, good chance of USD strengthening.

I see there's a few articles appearing this morning too from a few influential sources saying they feel that the Eur/Usd correction is almost done and parity in Q3/Q4 is likely.

dasdog

For ever odd wrote: »

In my opinion it's to late to start planning a trade for today. Governor kurdoa is speaking on Friday at 4.40am. Why don't you have a look and throw an idea up here.

PM sent.

Fizman wrote: »

There's some big US data at 13.30 this afternoon that could be a market mover. If US Retail Sales is decent, good chance of USD strengthening.

I see there's a few articles appearing this morning too from a few influential sources saying they feel that the Eur/Usd correction is almost done and parity in Q3/Q4 is likely.

Have a look at the FX section on trading floor. I don't think there was a single recommendation today that was correct. Except MOFuturesFX sentiment last night who called everything right bar GBP/NZD which had rallied massively on Mon/Tue and GBP/JPY which has two good days also. I'm been looking out at his sentiment nightly and retrospectively.

I find it hard to believe there is going to be a strong Q2 when the US are creating jobs that doesn't appear to be yielding a lot of disposable income.

Fizman

Another incredible day in DAX land. 350 points bottom to top.

Think that trend will continue tomorrow after a possible initial fade.

For ever odd

Fizman wrote: »

Another incredible day in DAX land. 350 points bottom to top.

Think that trend will continue tomorrow after a possible initial fade.

Out of interest, are you trading the DAX for long?

Can you give us a reason why you think that? I'm not agreeing/disagreeing with you, just curious.

For ever odd

For ever odd wrote: »

Yes, strict but simple. Yesterday was just one of those days when everything went to plan, for a change.
No trades open. I will not trade for the rest of the week.

Year end target raised, monthly targets adjusted accordingly. I will not trade until June 1

For ever odd

Commodities: CFTC Commitment of Traders Report - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities offered the CFTC Commitments of Traders Report for commodities for the week ending Tuesday, May 12th.

Key Quotes:

"Gold specs turned further into building net length hoping that US data would continue to disappoint, and drive Fed hike expectations further out."

"Despite weakening industrial demand prospects, silver specs took cues from strengthening gold demand and cut short positions."

"Platinum investors positioned net short as prices slid down amid moderating prices and demand concerns."

"Specs also moved their palladium positions toward the shorts as Chinese economic data disappointed."

"Copper specs increased their long exposure aggressively on the hope improving global demand and labour strife will tighten the market."

"Crude oil specs were mixed as WTI investors cut long positions more than shorts on shifting sentiment, while Brent investors added to long positions and decreased shorts."

"Three consecutive weeks of smaller-than-consensus injections prompted natural gas specs to heavily increase long positions."

"Gasoline and heating oil positions were little changed as inventories decreased, but remain healthy."
21:41 - FXStreet


CFTC Commitments of Traders Report -TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities offered the CFTC Commitments of Traders Report for the week ending Tuesday, May 12th.

"Evidence of the market’s waning conviction on the persistence of the USD bull trend is evident in the CFTC data for the week through May 12th. Positioning data reflected a further reduction in the IMM spec market’s overall bullish bet on the USD, with aggregate, implied USD position accumulated across the major currencies slipping to USD29.9bn this week, the smallest total long punt on the USD effectively since August last year."

"Net EUR shorts were trimmed 11k contracts this week to –179k in total, the smallest bear position net in the EUR since early March. Net short JPY positions fell 7.5k contracts in total to –23.5k in the latest week; net short JPY positions have increased a little in the past two weeks from the level seen prevailing at the end of April but positioning in the JPY overall remains extremely overall—a reflection perhaps of the limited movement (and sliding vol) seen in spot. Net CHF longs doubled this week, rising 5k contracts to +10k."

"One surprise in the data is the fact that speculative and CTA accounts opted to—correctly—fade the GBP’s post election rally. Net GBP shorts rose 6k contracts in the week through Tuesday, just days after the Tories’ surprising election victory."

"Commodity currency positioning was mixed; investors boosted net AUD longs modestly (and from relatively flat levels), taking the market’s net long AUD position to +4.4k, from just +626 contracts in the prior week. Net NZD longs were cut quite sharply in the week, however, falling to +1.7k in the week (from +9k prior). The CAD saw decent net short-covering over the week, with the net market position falling from –10k contracts to –3.9k this week, the smallest bear bet on the CAD since October."
21:35 - FXStreet

fundjanitor

Hi guys,

Quick question is see alot of you actually purchased individual stock and i'm wondering how do you go about this?

I have been investing via managed funds through Rabo Direct and Zurich for the past 3 years( 21 years old ) and i'm wondering how do i go about actually purchasing individual stock in a company as apposed to having to purchase via funds/packages etc


Any advice is very much appreciated


Cheers

dasdog

June nonsense.


Lack of Euro inflation post QE, money being kept in pockets so plan will run its course for now despite some rumours Draghi may reign back.



Initial low jobless claims figures and not so good NFP. We forget in the US benefits aren't for life. Not claiming dole does not equate to being employed.

"Back in the US, the initial jobless claims four-week average touched a new low not seen since 2000. It seems that those who can't find work have already used up their benefits, while layoffs (outside the energy sector) remain low."



1.145 showed creeks last night but held. Momentum is there like a battering ram. Timing long on the attack and short on the retreat is key. It should break and squeeze up rapidly before retreating. The more hungry may look at 1.180 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement from 1.40, May 2014) but I'm not sure it will go that far.

For ever odd

http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/press/koen_2015/index.htm/

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/pages/speeches/default.aspx

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/2015speech.htm

dasdog

For ever odd wrote: »

http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/press/koen_2015/index.htm/

As is the norm no surprises from the BoJ (we are GMT+1) but I will digest.



Switch off time, have a good one.

For ever odd

dasdog wrote: »

Switch off time, have a good one.

Yes, your dead right... Adrenaline is still flowing and the ideas.

I will be watching WTI oil futures roll over this week and DXY constitutes relationships. I will use my time off to follow-up on these, to see if there is anything viable.
If anyone has got any pointers, it would be appreciated.

Enjoy the weekend lads.

For ever odd

fundjanitor wrote: »

Hi guys,

Quick question is see alot of you actually purchased individual stock and i'm wondering how do you go about this?

I have been investing via managed funds through Rabo Direct and Zurich for the past 3 years( 21 years old ) and i'm wondering how do i go about actually purchasing individual stock in a company as apposed to having to purchase via funds/packages etc


Any advice is very much appreciated


Cheers

You need to find a broker for yourself, loads of threads on boards about it.