Red C Poll

Zubeneschamali · 26-03-2015 12:50PM

Jawgap wrote: »

The Shinners, he predicts, will have about 40.

His model predicts 40, but I think it will turn out to be a bad model.

FG will get more seats than SF for every % point of first preference votes they get, and I think he underestimates this effect.

For example in 2011: FG got 2.11 seats per % point of first preferences. SF got 1.41.

That ratio would give FG 50, and SF 33.

Labours ratio in 2011 was 1.9, and even in 1987, with only 6.5%, they got 12 seats for a ratio of 1.8.

And these predictions are based on this poll - I think the govt parties have hit bottom, and are rebounding. They won't get back up to the heady days of 2011, when they got most of the protest vote, but I think we could see 30% FG, 10% Labour, for seats of FG 60, Labour 20.

Zubeneschamali · 26-03-2015 12:53PM

golfball37 wrote: »

At least with FF's 17% you can be sure if anything this will be higher come pollng day

I don't think so - they only got 17.4% last time out, and it still hadn't sunk in everywhere that they are no longer the party of permanent government.

Many voters who simply follow the party in power will vote government parties this time, as FF have no goodies to hand out.

Jawgap · 26-03-2015 12:58PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't think so - they only got 17.4% last time out, and it still hadn't sunk in everywhere that they are no longer the party of permanent government.

Many voters who simply follow the party in power will vote government parties this time, as FF have no goodies to hand out.

Plus....a lot of people may feel that voting FF opens the door for SF.

I was in the UK in 1992 and this is starting to have the sniff of that time - the polls saying one thing the outcome of the election being a 'wtf' moment - because it's easy to register a protest when a pollster asks you a question, it's a bit different when you're stood there pencil in hand over the ballot.

Godge · 26-03-2015 01:41PM

Jawgap wrote: »

I think a lot of what he does is based more on the science and stats and less on the 'art.'

I'd agree, and tbh, I doubt Burton will not be returned - she may have a long night in the count centre though!

She has always relied on transfers. Varadkar will have a large surplus and if he cannot elect a second FG TD, it will elect Burton.

Godge · 26-03-2015 01:51PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

His model predicts 40, but I think it will turn out to be a bad model.

FG will get more seats than SF for every % point of first preference votes they get, and I think he underestimates this effect.

For example in 2011: FG got 2.11 seats per % point of first preferences. SF got 1.41.

That ratio would give FG 50, and SF 33.

Labours ratio in 2011 was 1.9, and even in 1987, with only 6.5%, they got 12 seats for a ratio of 1.8.

And these predictions are based on this poll - I think the govt parties have hit bottom, and are rebounding. They won't get back up to the heady days of 2011, when they got most of the protest vote, but I think we could see 30% FG, 10% Labour, for seats of FG 60, Labour 20.

Remember the new Dail will be smaller with only 158 seats so FG/Labour may be a bit short of 80 seats. Otherwise you seem to have a similar long-term view of the outcome as I do.

Of course, there is a long way to go.

Quin_Dub · 26-03-2015 02:00PM

Not a chance SF will get to 40 seats from 24% in opinion polls

If that level holds to election day , they'll land 18-20% of actual votes - ,that put them in the high 20's or so - 28 to 30 seats..

FG on 24% would land ~28% of the vote giving them something in the mid to high 40's

I also suspect that some SF gains will be at the expense of other non-government parties..

They are definitely going to go after Joe Higgins vacant seat , likewise Paul Murphy and Boyd Barrett..

Quin_Dub · 26-03-2015 02:02PM

Jawgap wrote: »

Plus....a lot of people may feel that voting FF opens the door for SF.

I was in the UK in 1992 and this is starting to have the sniff of that time - the polls saying one thing the outcome of the election being a 'wtf' moment - because it's easy to register a protest when a pollster asks you a question, it's a bit different when you're stood there pencil in hand over the ballot.

Definitely shade of the Kinnock era going on..

All the polls had Labour miles ahead , because it was trendy to say you hated the Tories..

But , then they got to the polling booths, not so much..

The opinion polls may not reflect it , but enough of the don't knows and "independent" voters will swing back toward FG/Lab come polling day to make the difference

Godge · 26-03-2015 03:52PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Definitely shade of the Kinnock era going on..

All the polls had Labour miles ahead , because it was trendy to say you hated the Tories..

But , then they got to the polling booths, not so much..

The opinion polls may not reflect it , but enough of the don't knows and "independent" voters will swing back toward FG/Lab come polling day to make the difference

That is not impossible. If FG were to get to say 32% and Labour to 12%, it is not inconceivable that they would have a narrow majority or that they would only need a Lowry or a few like that to get back in.

I have been saying for a while that FG/Lab/Others is a good bet.

I notice that FG/Lab have shortened to 5/1 in the most recent Paddy Power odds.

marienbad · 26-03-2015 04:35PM

Godge wrote: »

That is not impossible. If FG were to get to say 32% and Labour to 12%, it is not inconceivable that they would have a narrow majority or that they would only need a Lowry or a few like that to get back in.

I have been saying for a while that FG/Lab/Others is a good bet.

I notice that FG/Lab have shortened to 5/1 in the most recent Paddy Power odds.

And I have a few bob on them for quite some time at even better odds

We love stability more than anything else.

First Up · 26-03-2015 04:47PM

marienbad wrote: »

And I have a few bob on them for quite some time at even better odds

We love stability more than anything else.

We'll have a better feel closer to the election but if you plan to take a punt on FG/Labour I would do it now as those odds are only going to shorten.

Fr Tod Umptious · 28-03-2015 07:25PM

New Red C poll for SBP shows FG and Lab +3, SF -3, FF no change.

The trend continues

Phoebas · 28-03-2015 07:28PM

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

New Red C poll for SBP shows FG and Lab +3, SF -3, FF no change.

The trend continues

SF down 4 according to RTÉ.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0328/690500-opinion-poll/

irishfeen · 28-03-2015 07:30PM

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

New Red C poll for SBP shows FG and Lab +3, SF -3, FF no change.

The trend continues

Yep Full Details -

Fine Gael - 27 (+3)
Sinn Féin - 17 (-4)
Labour - 10 (+3)
Fianna Fáil - 18 (-)
Independents - 28 (-2) *includes Renua Ireland on 2%*

joe912 · 28-03-2015 09:10PM

Jawgap wrote: »

Plus....a lot of people may feel that voting FF opens the door for SF.

I was in the UK in 1992 and this is starting to have the sniff of that time - the polls saying one thing the outcome of the election being a 'wtf' moment - because it's easy to register a protest when a pollster asks you a question, it's a bit different when you're stood there pencil in hand over the ballot.

presumably when you say a lot of people you mean "you".

joe912 · 28-03-2015 09:12PM

Opinion polls have no place in a democratic society. The weekly ones we get now are beyond a joke.

alaimacerc · 28-03-2015 09:13PM

joe912 wrote: »

Opinion polls have no place in a democratic society.

Perhaps the phrase you're looking for is "incompatible with Republican values"?

Jawgap · 28-03-2015 09:15PM

joe912 wrote: »

presumably when you say a lot of people you mean "you".

No, I mean to my mind there are broad parallels between the situation here, at the moment, and the UK in 1992 when Labour appeared to be a shoo-in, everyone said they were voting Labour, and afterwards everyone said they voted Labour - and yet the Tories got in.

One reason was that voters fled from the LibDems because voting for them was perceived as opening the door for Labour.

Jawgap · 28-03-2015 09:17PM

joe912 wrote: »

Opinion polls have no place in a democratic society. The weekly ones we get now are beyond a joke.

Why do you say that?

Are there issues with the sample or the analyses?

conorh91 · 28-03-2015 09:20PM

joe912 wrote: »

Opinion polls have no place in a democratic society. The weekly ones we get now are beyond a joke.

Usually said by people who dislike the latest opinion poll finding.

I believe opinion polls play a vital role in a smart, modern democracy. My only concern would be regarding the integrity of the polling process: there is massive scope and incentive for fraudulent reporting.

Wasn't there some question about the identity of one of the polling companies a few years back? There was major confusion about who they were and who ran the company. If I remember correctly, the company was not properly registered.

joe912 · 28-03-2015 09:27PM

conorh91 wrote: »

Usually said by people who dislike the latest opinion poll finding.

I believe opinion polls play a vital role in a smart, modern democracy. My only concern would be regarding the integrity of the polling process: there is massive scope and incentive for fraudulent reporting.

Wasn't there some question about the identity of one of the polling companies a few years back? There was major confusion about who they were and who ran the company. If I remember correctly, the company was not properly registered.

What possible roll could they play other than persuading people that voting is a waste of time or trying to manipulate the vote to match the requirements of those paying for the poll.
Worse still would sitting governments change policy to match poll results, how would that be healthy in a democratically elected government.

Jawgap · 28-03-2015 09:29PM

joe912 wrote: »

What possible roll could they play other than persuading people that voting is a waste of time or trying to manipulate the vote to match the requirements of those paying for the poll.
Worse still would sitting governments change policy to match poll results, how would that be healthy in a democratically elected government.

If polling is such a waste if time, how come political parties commission so many of them as private polls (as well as focus groups etc)?

joe912 · 28-03-2015 09:32PM

alaimacerc wrote: »

Perhaps the phrase you're looking for is "incompatible with Republican values"?

what are you talking about. According to most of the posters here the ira never had a mandate. So presumably they were volunteering because they believed in what they were doing, not to gain popularity or for approval from the general public. They continued the struggle against british occupation despite strong opposition from the british and irish governments and their relevant media outlets.

oscarBravo · 28-03-2015 09:35PM

joe912 wrote: »

According to most of the posters here the ira never had a mandate. So presumably they were volunteering because they believed in what they were doing, not to gain popularity or for approval from the general public.

joe912 wrote: »

...no place in a democratic society.

Uh huh.

joe912 · 28-03-2015 09:37PM

Jawgap wrote: »

If polling is such a waste if time, how come political parties commission so many of them as private polls (as well as focus groups etc)?

Presumably so they can enact policies that they believe will make them more popular. So polls are popular so that they can effect policies that have short term gains to benefit particular parties as opposed to long term benefits for the people and the country as a whole.

Jawgap · 28-03-2015 09:43PM

joe912 wrote: »

Presumably so they can enact policies that they believe will make them more popular. So polls are popular so that they can effect policies that have short term gains to benefit particular parties as opposed to long term benefits for the people and the country as a whole.

So are you saying if we got rid of polls politicians will suddenly start governing in the national interest?

If polls are so pernicious how come no one is proposing to do away with them?

joe912 · 28-03-2015 09:44PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

All we need now is a Grexit to really break the legs of Sinn Féin.

Everyone knows Greece is on the way out of the eurozone yet SF threw it's lot behind a party that, aside from a couple of looper parties on the continent, is absolutely despised. They are still pretending that these guys are putting it up to the EU!? The shinners are wired to the moon when they touch economics or the EU.

wasn't f.g one of the parties coming down hard on the greeks at the last e.u meeting despite the fact that if Greece got concessions that would open the door for concessions for Ireland. what sort of a party would rather punish the irish people further, just to save face and to hang on to power, in the face of rising support for the left and I don't mean labour.

joe912 · 28-03-2015 09:50PM

Jawgap wrote: »

So are you saying if we got rid of polls politicians will suddenly start governing in the national interest?

If polls are so pernicious how come no one is proposing to do away with them?

it would be some seismic change for any of the established parties to put the national interests first.
we would really need to see the proposed radical reforms to governance that f.g promised before the last election to become a reality, if we even knew what them reforms might be.
realistically the only hope for governance in the people and nations best interest is an end to party politics and a system whereby we vote directly for the position for Taoiseach and ministers based on what they personally want to achieve and how they plan to deliver.

conorh91 · 28-03-2015 10:05PM

joe912 wrote: »

Worse still would sitting governments change policy to match poll results, how would that be healthy in a democratically elected government.

Democracy operates according to the basic thesis that Parliament and the Government fear electoral backlash, and will obey the public mood for fear of a backlash.

All opinion polls do, is to provide the parliament and the Government with more empirical and exact gauge of the public mood.

Without opinion polls, rulers will resort to guesswork, and may even become too conservative, failing to act at all for fear of the imagined consequences.

Polls are democratic instruments. Yes, they can be too populist, and for that reason I share your wariness of them to an extent. However, I think life without opinion polls would be even less desirable.

My only concern relates to methodological transparency and the integrity of this very influential data.

First Up · 28-03-2015 10:10PM

joe912 wrote: »

wasn't f.g one of the parties coming down hard on the greeks at the last e.u meeting despite the fact that if Greece got concessions that would open the door for concessions for Ireland. what sort of a party would rather punish the irish people further, just to save face and to hang on to power, in the face of rising support for the left and I don't mean labour.

Oh we know who you mean.

The myth that Greece was going to "show balls" and strike a deal that would embarrass the Irish govt was the motivation behind this thread and is the sort of nonsense that was seized upon by the shinners among others.

That myth has been well and truly debunked so if you want a stick to beat the govt, you need something a bit better.

joe912 · 28-03-2015 10:11PM

conorh91 wrote: »

Democracy operates according to the basic thesis that Parliament and the Government fear electoral backlash, and will obey the public mood for fear of a backlash.

All opinion polls do, is to provide the parliament and the Government with more empirical and exact gauge of the public mood.

Without opinion polls, rulers will resort to guesswork, and may even become too conservative, failing to act at all for fear of the imagined consequences.

Polls are democratic instruments. Yes, they can be too populist, and for that reason I share your wariness of them to an extent. However, I think life without opinion polls would be even less desirable.

My only concern relates to methodological transparency and the integrity of this very influential data.[/QUOTE]

this is the crucial bit surely whomever commissions the survey will manipulate it to get the desired result. The public mood rarely relates to the national interest.

Red C Poll

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