Red C Poll

Phoebas

the groutch wrote: »

just wait til people get their water bills in the letterbox, there will be a sudden drop in govt support again.

Are people really that fickle; a bill that they know is coming for an amount that they know is going to effect their support for the government?
If that is the case, then its probably also the case that they'll just get used to the water bills over time and any drop in support will just be a blip.

Iwasfrozen

Good to see SF are at 21%. I expect them to fall further before the general election and transfers will (as always) kill them. A party that refuses to condemn the actions of the IRA and ban former terrorists from membership is not worthy of being in government.

irishfeen

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Good to see SF are at 21%. I expect them to fall further before the general election and transfers will (as always) kill them. A party that refuses to condemn the actions of the IRA and ban former terrorists from membership is not worthy of being in government.

21% is absolutely massive - anything over 20% at the next GE and they would have considerable strength in negotiations. could very well end up a Jr partner in government.

Iwasfrozen

irishfeen wrote: »

21% is absolutely massive - anything over 20% at the next GE and they would have considerable strength in negotiations. could very well end up a Jr partner in government.

They've already said they won't be jr partners in government. Not that I trust their word but I think they're smart enough to see a pattern of what happens to jr partners in Irish government.

Anyway 21% poll support translates to 21% first preference votes, polls don't take into consideration transfers which have historically killed SF so they'll be lucky if 21% first preference votes equate to 16 or 17% seats in the Dáil.

And that's before all the smear attacks SF will have to go through before the election.

michael999999

irishfeen wrote: »

21% is absolutely massive - anything over 20% at the next GE and they would have considerable strength in negotiations. could very well end up a Jr partner in government.

Gerry may well be Tanaiste.

irishfeen

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

They've already said they won't be jr partners in government. Not that I trust their word but I think they're smart enough to see a pattern of what happens to jr partners in Irish government.

Anyway 21% poll support translates to 21% first preference votes, polls don't take into consideration transfers which have historically killed SF so they'll be lucky if 21% first preference votes equate to 16 or 17% seats in the Dáil.

And that's before all the smear attacks SF will have to go through before the election.

I think it will end up something in the order of about -

FG - 30%
SF - 22%
FF- 20%
Lab - 10%

I think any sort rainbow government could be formed with the inclusion of Independents... I think realistically its looking like FG/LAB/Ind

Iwasfrozen

irishfeen wrote: »

I think it will end up something in the order of about -

FG - 30%
SF - 22%
FF- 20%
Lab - 10%

I think any sort rainbow government could be formed with the inclusion of Independents... I think realistically its looking like FG/LAB/Ind

Are you saying 22% first preference votes or Dáil seats because if so SF will need far more than 22% first preference votes.

You're also making the assumption the smear the papers will inevitably dig up (and there is a lot of it) won't affect SF's performance.

irishfeen

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Are you saying 22% first preference votes or Dáil seats because if so SF will need far more than 22% first preference votes.

You're also making the assumption the smear the papers will inevitably dig up (and there is a lot of it) won't affect SF's performance.

Yes 22% first preference, don't think they will get more and even this I think is optimistic ... they will pick up a big vote in poor urban areas but rural constituencies will continue with the FF/FG divide as always.

alaimacerc

michael999999 wrote: »

Gerry may well be Tanaiste.

I'd bet money if there's a SF Tanaiste in the next government, it'll be Mary-Lou, not Gerry. But I don't think it seems likely. FF+SF won't have the seats, and FG+SF would be the ultimate "defeats the purpose of voting at all" outcome.

irishfeen

alaimacerc wrote: »

I'd bet money if there's a SF Tanaiste in the next government, it'll be Mary-Lou, not Gerry. But I don't think it seems likely. FF+SF won't have the seats, and FG+SF would be the ultimate "defeats the purpose of voting at all" outcome.

FG/SF is singly the only outcome possible that's out IMO ... FG/FF won't happen and that's more likely but it doesn't have a hope either. Hung Dáil is also a very strong possibility if FG/Lab do worst then I expect.

Timberrrrrrrr

irishfeen wrote: »

I honestly don't know about that - seems if people are just fed up with it either way.. Yesterday they planned to have "thousands" March on Cork city and the papers reported barely 500 people.. The actions of some protesters in slightly militarising the events has put a massive amount of people off imo .. Then throwing a water balloon/forcing Joan Burton to stay in the car was hilarious at the start but when it sank in where that kind of carry on would lead us numbers at marches have declined massively.

Just back from town (Dublin city) and about 60 gob****es holding up traffic while chanting illegible waffle, great way to get the people on their side.

conorh91

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

You're also making the assumption the smear the papers will inevitably dig up (and there is a lot of it) won't affect SF's performance.

Unfortunately that does appear to be the gist of it.

Anyone who could vote for a party whose leader is purported to be linked in some way to the disappearance of Jean McConville is unlikely to be swayed by sexual abuse allegations or similar.

Fr Tod Umptious

The closer the election gets the lower SF will be.

Remember the first ERSI report a while back that suggested good economic growth ?

Doherty attacked it and attacked its authors saying it was more or less BS.

And the reason is obvious, because it did not fit with the SF mantra that "austerity does not work".

As more and more economic forecasts and results prove that the country is on the up SF will have less to argue, while at the same time having to defend their dear leader and his past, and not just about the violence as we have seen.

Godge

Surprised nobody comments on the poll in Sunday Times today.

FG 27
SF 19
FF 18
Lab 9
Green 3
Ind 23

They don't poll as often as Red C and some of their polls have been out of line. I think this one overstates the Government recovery and I also think ReNua will take votes from FG, Ind and SF in the short term.

However, if FG/Lab are running at close to 40% by the summer in Red C polls, it is game on for seeing this government reelected.

Kermit.de.frog

For all their faults i'd take the present government over any alternative on offer atm because there isn't one.

nuac

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Good to see SF are at 21%. I expect them to fall further before the general election and transfers will (as always) kill them. A party that refuses to condemn the actions of the IRA and ban former terrorists from membership is not worthy of being in government.

I agree with this.

The RCC tried to use canon law and movement between parishes etc to deal with sexual abusers and issues arising - in effect a state within a state.

Did not work. RCC has lost a lot of support and credibility

SF/IRA are at the same - Kangaroo courts, moving suspects etc, threatening whistleblowers.

They are already losing support over that, and imho will lose more

padd b1975

the groutch wrote: »

just wait til people get their water bills in the letterbox, there will be a sudden drop in govt support again.

People have been getting water bills for years.

Brian Shanahan

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Wouldn't have stopped the IMF coming in. The guarantee was the wrong move in retrospect only; it appeared to be the right move at the time and I'm fairly certain no matter what the opposition at the time said, they would have done the same thing.

No, it was obvious that it was the wrong move at the time, even if you didn't look at the economics but just the people who were pushing it.

One of the first rules in a crisis is to never take the advice of those who set up the conditions for the crisis in the first place. And it was the people who pushed for deregulation in the first place (the cause) who subsequently pushed so hard for the bank guarantee.
The second rule is never to take the advice of those who will gain the most of said advice being taken. The German government and UK and German banks were the other main group pushing the guarantee, and that was mainly due to the fact that German and UK banks had piled in on the junk bonds being issued by Anglo Irish, the AIBs and BoI just at the point of their collapse, and they knew they could pressure a weak Irish government (especially Lenihan at finance) to guarantee bonds which originally had no guarantee at all, hence the Irish government ending up having to pay extremely high interest (that's the trade off for junk bonds, you get very high interest repayments on the understanding that the company issuing them probably won't survive to repay the debt) on private debt they shouldn't have honoured.

irishfeen wrote: »

I think this is the start of a gradual recovery of the government parties - people ultimately fear change .. Even take the Scottish Referendum as an example.

Bad example, what happened with the Scottish referendum is that the Unionist parties of London got in a panic because up to two weeks before the referendum they were losing and heavily, so they promised to give Scotland devo max if they voted "No" (an option which Call Me Dave refused to counternance going on the original ballot, remember) which is what the Scots at the time were most in favour of. When the referendum swung, the Southern parties went into their usual mode vis a vis Scotland, i.e. treat the Scots like a jumped up bunch of traneens, and proceeded to do everything in their power to not fulfill their pre-referendum promises, even going as far as to say that they wouldn't implement the full recommendations of the report their tame civil servant wrote up for them (which was significantly less than what was promised). Combined this with the Nu Labor/Tory election mantra up in Scotland, "Vote SNP, get the other shower of **** in Westminster!" and you've got a perfect storm of a people that are becoming acceleratingly in favour of full independence and a pro-independence party looking more and more like the only sane option, hence the polls showing that the Nats will get between 52 and all 59 Scottish Westminster seats.

MayoSalmon

It wouldn't be radical to say FF will be back in power in less than 10 years

Kermit.de.frog

All we need now is a Grexit to really break the legs of Sinn Féin.

Everyone knows Greece is on the way out of the eurozone yet SF threw it's lot behind a party that, aside from a couple of looper parties on the continent, is absolutely despised. They are still pretending that these guys are putting it up to the EU!? The shinners are wired to the moon when they touch economics or the EU.

alaimacerc

MayoSalmon wrote: »

It wouldn't be radical to say FF will be back in power in less than 10 years

Soul-destroying, is what it is. But near-inevitable, I think, unless SF really manages to replace it as a party of populist nationalism. Which I think is unlikely: too many that are too conservative to think of voting SF, but too tribal to go FG.

LuckyLloyd

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fine-gael-support-bounces-back-after-12-year-low-in-last-poll-1.2153425

Good poll for government, however SF up 2% despite recent 'scandals' and Gerry Adam's popularity unchanged.

BoJack Horseman

Well this poll just reflects what was polled by RedC.

The upswing was from MRBI's last poll which was curiously low % for gov parties.

LuckyLloyd

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Well this poll just reflects what was polled by RedC

Maybe, but it's hard to take the Red C poll seriously when the releasing media entity offers wonderfully biased and meaningless commentary like:

Elsewhere Sinn Fein are at 21pc and are failing to move beyond that level which shows middle Ireland is not ready to consider it worthy of Government.

Zubeneschamali

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Good poll for government, however SF up 2% despite recent 'scandals' and Gerry Adam's popularity unchanged.

The thing which interests me is that the govt parties are up, but so are undecideds, while independents and FF are down. I think polling angry people tends to bring out the protest element, but as the election approaches people focus. We are going to choose a Government in the next election, and voting for Independents is just handing the Government to the people who vote for a party with a realistic chance of being in that Government.

As for SF, anyone who could vote for Sinn Féin is hardly likely to be bothered by something like a child abuse cover up scandal, SF's leaders have much worse than that on their consciences. The scandals won't dent SF or Gerry Adams with their committed supporters, but they will limit their vote with the undecideds, and will continue to keep them transfer toxic.

Godge

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fg-gets-boost-as-dublin-support-is-back-to-old-levels-1.2153464


This analysis by Stephen Collins is well worth reading if you haven't used up your free articles yet.


Fine Gael:

"One of the big positives for Fine Gael is that its vote in Dublin is back up to 25 per cent and is in a strong position to hold most of its seats in the capital."

"In class terms, it is way ahead of all rivals in the best-off AB social category, where it is on 43 per cent. It gets 35 per cent among farmers, 24 per cent among C1 voters, 19 per cent among C2 voters and 15 per cent among the poorest DE category.
Across the age groups it is strongest in the over-65s, where it is on 35 per cent, with its next strongest age category the 50 to 64 group, where it gets 29 per cent."


Sinn Fein:

"One cause for concern for the party (Sinn Fein) would be that Sinn Féin support in Dublin has slipped back since the last poll, but its position in Connacht-Ulster has improved significantly over the same period.
In class terms the party is easily the most popular among the poorest DE social category, where it is on 36 per cent of the vote.
That share drops steadily across the socio-economic divide, with the party dropping to 6 per cent among the best-off AB voters.

There is a significant variation across the age groups, but it is weakest among the 50- to 64- year-olds. The party remains more attractive to men than women, although the differential has narrowed considerably over the past few years."

Those are the bits that interest me.

FG support is higher among those who are more likely to vote - better-off voters and older voters.

FF is in big trouble, at only 13% in Dublin, it is only just ahead of Labour on 10% and similar to its 2011 general election performance of 12.5%. Independents/Others at 35% in Dublin is strong (the Socialist Party/AAA should be able to hold its seats, ditto Shane Ross and Finian McGrath). There will be a swing of seats from Labour to SF/Independents if the election was held tomorrow.

I think there is a very interesting year of polls ahead. With more and more people back at work and getting pay rises, support for FG should rise as the year goes on. However, SF is so strong in the lower socio-economic groups that it may well be able to hold its vote in or around 20% come the next election. Nothing in this poll to change my view that the next government will be FG/Lab/Others with the others likely to be one small grouping such as Greens/Renua/Shane Ross group. SF then to be the major opposition party.

Jawgap

For the political anoraks.......from Adrian Kavanagh's blog......

Sinn Fein and the Government Parties make gains: Constituency-level analysis of the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll (26th March 2015)

It suggests FG will be the largest party in the next Dail at about 46 TDs, with Lab being reduced to 4.

The Shinners, he predicts, will have about 40.

golfball37

As i've said ad nauseum, SF would want to be polling close to 40% to get 24% of the vote. At least with FF's 17% you can be sure if anything this will be higher come pollng day

Godge

Jawgap wrote: »

For the political anoraks.......from Adrian Kavanagh's blog......

Sinn Fein and the Government Parties make gains: Constituency-level analysis of the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll (26th March 2015)

It suggests FG will be the largest party in the next Dail at about 46 TDs, with Lab being reduced to 4.

The Shinners, he predicts, will have about 40.

For all his scientific work, he gets some things wrong.

For example, Jack Chambers will not take a seat for FF in Dublin West.

That seat will either be Joan Burton, a second FG candidate or a different FF candidate if they add one.

Jawgap

Godge wrote: »

For all his scientific work, he gets some things wrong.

For example, Jack Chambers will not take a seat for FF in Dublin West.

That seat will either be Joan Burton, a second FG candidate or a different FF candidate if they add one.

I think a lot of what he does is based more on the science and stats and less on the 'art.'

I'd agree, and tbh, I doubt Burton will not be returned - she may have a long night in the count centre though!