Red C Poll

Godge

A new poll out today from Red C. They seem to do one nearly every month.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0114/672484-politics-poll/

Rather than look at in isolation, here are the various parties and their share (of Red C polls) since last September, with the last one today's poll. I haven't included Reboot's 1%, as I can't get it to align so it is under Independent.


FG|28|26|22|21|24
FF|18|18|18|19|18
SF|23|20|22|24|21
Lab|8|8|8|6|8
Ind|21|26|27|28|28
Grn|2|2|3|2|1


The trend is interesting, but much of it is within the margin of error.

Looking at those, the questions I have are as follows:

Are FF ever going to get beyond 18/19%, or is that as far as Martin can bring them?
Are Labour stuck at 8% (assuming December is a one-off)?
Have Sinn Fein peaked, are people seeing though them?
Have Fine Gael bottomed out, is the budget having an effect?

But probably the most important one is, will all of this change as we get closer to an election and people think about what sort of government we need?

Godge

A separate issue is the popularity of the party leaders. I couldn't find comparable data from previous Red C polls online but the current satisfaction ratings for the various leader are as follows:


Enda Kenny 35%
Joan Burton 33%
Micheal Martin 31%
Gerry Adams 27%


Gerry's position in the rankings is quite surprising considering all we have heard on these boards about how the Liam Adams and Mairia Cahill affairs haven't affected him. That may well be true and it may be that Mary Lou's childish antics in the Dail have created a question mark over her leader's suitability for the role of leading the country.

oscarBravo

Graphically:



(I took the liberty of formatting the original post.)

Iwasfrozen

Definitely seems like Labor are making a recovery at SF's expense. Hopefully SF don't go above 20% on election day. Nice to see them being pushed back down to second place anyway.

FF have been stripped back to their core voters, I don't expect them to fall much further if at all.

FG are making a nice recovery and with a few more give away budgets and the water charges issue getting stale they should be on schedule to be in government for 2016.

Godge

oscarBravo wrote: »

Graphically:



(I took the liberty of formatting the original post.)

Thanks, couldn't figure out how to do it.

Rightwing

oscarBravo wrote: »

Graphically:



(I took the liberty of formatting the original post.)

Looking at this graph, FG looks to be in the most volatile position. They need the voter to feel the effects of the recovery, that's too late for Labour.

Go on the independents.

Godge

Rightwing wrote: »

Looking at this graph, FG looks to be in the most volatile position. They need the voter to feel the effects of the recovery, that's too late for Labour.

Go on the independents.

The Independent vote is interesting. Here is an alternate view of it:

http://www.redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/SBP-December-2014-Poll-Report.pdf


"A lot has been made of the rise of support for Independent candidates in the polls, (rightly so with their share now standing at 28% in this poll) and how this might work in terms of a government after the next General Election. While they will of course do well, it is unlikely that support will remain at such a high level when the reality of forming a government is put to voters.

Traditionally in between elections when voters were less connected to the political situation and unsure of how they might vote in a year or mores time, polling has seen high levels of undecided voters. The proportion of the electorate suggesting they were undecided had often been seen to reach as high as 25% of all those likely to vote. Yet at the moment the level of
undecided voters stands at just 12% of those likely to vote in any General Election.

This may suggest a subtle change in mind set among those being polled who haven’t really made up their mind how they will vote, from simply stating they are unsure how they will vote, to instead being ABP (Anyone But a Party). However, it is quite likely that to some extent that claiming you will support an Independent candidate now, remains a way of not registering support for a party mid election, somewhat in the same way as saying you were undecided in the past. "


If that is true (and without taking a view one way or another on it), then there is 12% of undecideds hiding in the Independent vote. One to watch.

Rightwing

Godge wrote: »

The Independent vote is interesting. Here is an alternate view of it:

http://www.redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/SBP-December-2014-Poll-Report.pdf


"A lot has been made of the rise of support for Independent candidates in the polls, (rightly so with their share now standing at 28% in this poll) and how this might work in terms of a government after the next General Election. While they will of course do well, it is unlikely that support will remain at such a high level when the reality of forming a government is put to voters.

Traditionally in between elections when voters were less connected to the political situation and unsure of how they might vote in a year or mores time, polling has seen high levels of undecided voters. The proportion of the electorate suggesting they were undecided had often been seen to reach as high as 25% of all those likely to vote. Yet at the moment the level of
undecided voters stands at just 12% of those likely to vote in any General Election.

This may suggest a subtle change in mind set among those being polled who haven’t really made up their mind how they will vote, from simply stating they are unsure how they will vote, to instead being ABP (Anyone But a Party). However, it is quite likely that to some extent that claiming you will support an Independent candidate now, remains a way of not registering support for a party mid election, somewhat in the same way as saying you were undecided in the past. "


If that is true (and without taking a view one way or another on it), then there is 12% of undecideds hiding in the Independent vote. One to watch.

I'm not sure I'd buy into that. The thing about independents is, they may get c 28%, but not secure all that many seats (may just miss out on many, despite getting a lot of votes).

Godge

Rightwing wrote: »

I'm not sure I'd buy into that. The thing about independents is, they may get c 28%, but not secure all that many seats (may just miss out on many, despite getting a lot of votes).

Or, and this is half-way between your view and Red C's, some people may give one Independent a first preference to register protest before giving their second to their regular party/choice for government.

Rightwing

Godge wrote: »

Or, and this is half-way between your view and Red C's, some people may give one Independent a first preference to register protest before giving their second to their regular party/choice for government.

True enough, I don't think the Irish electorate (or indeed any electorate) is sophisticated in their use of votes.

Uncle Ben

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Definitely seems like Labor are making a recovery at SF's expense. Hopefully SF don't go above 20% on election day. Nice to see them being pushed back down to second place anyway.

FF have been stripped back to their core voters, I don't expect them to fall much further if at all.

FG are making a nice recovery and with a few more give away budgets and the water charges issue getting stale they should be on schedule to be in government for 2016.

I never thought I'd see SF in second place let alone slipping from first within the margin of error. It really does show how the establishment of FF / FG & Labour have destroyed this country.

Fr Tod Umptious

Uncle Ben wrote: »

I never thought I'd see SF in second place let alone slipping from first within the margin of error. It really does show how the establishment of FF / FG & Labour have destroyed this country.

Not exactly.

What it shows is that people are willing to listen to populists but only to a certain degree.
The economic good news and lower taxes will bring them back to established parties

Support for SF is soft support, a lot less people will be willing to support them in a GE than would in local elections or give them support in a poll.
This trend will continue to evolve as we approach the GE.
The closer we get to the election the less SF can attack the economic good news or its messengers.

For Reals

Godge wrote: »

A separate issue is the popularity of the party leaders. I couldn't find comparable data from previous Red C polls online but the current satisfaction ratings for the various leader are as follows:


Enda Kenny 35%
Joan Burton 33%
Micheal Martin 31%
Gerry Adams 27%


Gerry's position in the rankings is quite surprising considering all we have heard on these boards about how the Liam Adams and Mairia Cahill affairs haven't affected him. That may well be true and it may be that Mary Lou's childish antics in the Dail have created a question mark over her leader's suitability for the role of leading the country.

I salute your non-bias punditry

Good loser

I believe the combined FF/FG vote will always be 50% + in general elections.

BoJack Horseman

Interesting to see the trend since September.
Its pretty consistent.

As an aside, I hate the "independent & others" tag.
Its hardly cumbersome to extract the 4% far-left parties & show the 24% indie stat on its own.

Iwasfrozen

Uncle Ben wrote: »

I never thought I'd see SF in second place let alone slipping from first within the margin of error. It really does show how the establishment of FF / FG & Labour have destroyed this country.

It shows nothing of the sort, it shows people are not happy with the establishment party, not any party has "destroyed" the country.

And btw if we had followed SF proposals during the boom we would have been much much worse off.

Steppenwolfe

For Reals wrote: »

I salute your non-bias punditry

I was just thinking that myself. What a load of codswallop

BoJack Horseman

Steppenwolfe wrote: »

I was just thinking that myself. What a load of codswallop

What was inaccurate about his posts?

Godge

Steppenwolfe wrote: »

I was just thinking that myself. What a load of codswallop

Explain to me why Gerry Adams is now the least popular leader. We had multiple posts on here from the usual suspects only a couple of months ago telling us how he was the most popular leader and that he was untouched by the scandals.

I would like to hear their explanation of what has changed. I didn't advance a particular view, I asked a question.

As always when they go missing, you wonder whether they are awaiting instructions from Belfast.

alaimacerc

Godge wrote: »

Explain to me why Gerry Adams is now the least popular leader. We had multiple posts on here from the usual suspects only a couple of months ago telling us how he was the most popular leader and that he was untouched by the scandals.

My suspicion is that this is a function of "transfer toxicity". If you're a SF#1 voter, then Gerry for Taoiseach, grand so. Fairly small numbers of others happy with that. If you're voting for one of the other three (well, two and a half) main parties you're likely thinking of who'd be a somewhat acceptable leader in the event if a coalition, if it's not your own party's. SF perhaps don't help themselves here by "talking down" their own coalition prospects and intentions. Or are believing their own propaganda that they'll only go into one if they get to lead it.

alaimacerc

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Its hardly cumbersome to extract the 4% far-left parties & show the 24% indie stat on its own.

Hopefully we'll see a more sensible breakdown of this "bloc" as time goes on. At least for the "formal" groupings, once they're somewhat stabilised. It's a nonsense to say "the biggest vote is for 'misc'."

One wonders if it's even a real number. Are these respondents actually going to be voting #1 for any actual independent in their actual constituency? Or are they thinking "I like that guy [_] in the Dáil, I'd vote for him" -- regardless if there's anyone "like-minded" standing where they do have a vote? And if the independent vote goes ten different ways in each, it may elect no-one even where it on the face of it has a quota-and-a-half.

For Reals

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

What was inaccurate about his posts?

Just to note that when Sinn Fein are topping, 'these polls carry no real weight' etc.

Godge

For Reals wrote: »

Just to note that when Sinn Fein are topping, 'these polls carry no real weight' etc.

Since this poll came out, there has been a load of sniping on this and the other thread about how I am highlighting a poll when supposedly previously I have dissed them. Not surprisingly, most of those sniping are SF supporters.

However, despite what they all say, I haven't changed my view on the fact that it is a long way to the next election. Here from the OP to the thread is the biggest question I posed:

Godge wrote: »

But probably the most important one is, will all of this change as we get closer to an election and people think about what sort of government we need?

I have also said many times that between elections, individual polls aren't the story, the trend is. That is why I included polls back to last September in the OP.

I have placed a huge caveat over the poll. Why would I do that if I was wanting to crow about FG topping the poll? (incidentally last month SF only topped one of the three polls, FG topped the other two and again I was cautious about their relevance for a general election)

On other posts on the Taoiseach thread, I have drawn attention to the remarks made by Red C about the softness of the FG vote - again hardly something a rabid FG voter would do.

When Gerry Adams is the least popular party leader and SF have gone down in the polls, the easy thing to do is to make snide and sniping remarks about who is posting the factual information, unfortunately it doesn't change the polls. Neither does it help those on the thread who are interested in analysing and looking at what is happening.

I have a genuine interest in statistics and numbers. The idea behind this thread is to follow the polls and analyse them as we get nearer the general election. It is not about scoring cheap political points.

Steppenwolfe

Godge wrote: »

Explain to me why Gerry Adams is now the least popular leader. We had multiple posts on here from the usual suspects only a couple of months ago telling us how he was the most popular leader and that he was untouched by the scandals.

I would like to hear their explanation of what has changed. I didn't advance a particular view, I asked a question.

As always when they go missing, you wonder whether they are awaiting instructions from Belfast.

I have no idea and don't give a toss why he's the least popular leader in those polls. I don't think any of them are doing their party any good as leader. I was simply agreeing with the posters sarcastic remark about your 'non biased punditry'.

You state " I didn't advance a particular view, I asked a question." However, the questions in your OP are loaded with bias. Your 2nd post of the leaders graph is also followed by the Mary Lou remark which highlights your bias once again. In your reply to me you go on about other posters "awaiting instructions from Belfast." Really?

The poll graphs are useful and interesting. Adding bias loaded questions and remarks is not.

Godge

Steppenwolfe wrote: »

I have no idea and don't give a toss why he's the least popular leader in those polls. I don't think any of them are doing their party any good as leader. I was simply agreeing with the posters sarcastic remark about your 'non biased punditry'.

You state " I didn't advance a particular view, I asked a question." However, the questions in your OP are loaded with bias. Your 2nd post of the leaders graph is also followed by the Mary Lou remark which highlights your bias once again. In your reply to me you go on about other posters "awaiting instructions from Belfast." Really?

The poll graphs are useful and interesting. Adding bias loaded questions and remarks is not.

The questions are thrown up by the findings of the poll. If SF had further increased their vote and it was showing as solid, the question would have been different. There are questions for all the parties.

Godge wrote: »

The trend is interesting, but much of it is within the margin of error.

Looking at those, the questions I have are as follows:

Are FF ever going to get beyond 18/19%, or is that as far as Martin can bring them?
Are Labour stuck at 8% (assuming December is a one-off)?
Have Sinn Fein peaked, are people seeing though them?
Have Fine Gael bottomed out, is the budget having an effect?

But probably the most important one is, will all of this change as we get closer to an election and people think about what sort of government we need?

conorh91

Steppenwolfe wrote: »

I have no idea

seriously? You cannot think of any reason why Gerry Adams has suffered a 20% cut in supporters? Any controversy at all in recent weeks… kangaroo courts, rape victims… anything like that come to mind?

I cannot comprehend why SF want to retain at the helm of their party a man who displays no competence for, or interest in, a Government role; who regularly embarrasses the party on economic matters; who makes utterly incredible claims regarding IRA non-membership; and who now sees his reputation sink further, having allegedly impeded justice for underage rape victims.

For how long can the Cult of Gerry survive? I'm no fan of Mary-Lou McDonald, but at least her barmy opinions are more amusing than she is offensive. She carries no personal human-rights' violations baggage, which is a clean slate many of us prefer in our leaders….

irishfeen

FG will be delighted to see their decline bottom out - general elections are all about momentum and ultimately the electorate fearing the unknown.. Unemployment will be under 10% at the next GE and budget 2016 will likely serve to give back every euro they possibly can to those tempted to vote SF/Ind.

I would imagine you will see an all out attack on everything SF from Q3 2015 .. Inside FG/Lab they will be plotting to take SF apart and IMO Adams will be centred around that.

Fr Tod Umptious

conorh91 wrote: »

seriously? You cannot think of any reason why Gerry Adams has suffered a 20% cut in supporters? Any controversy at all in recent weeks… kangaroo courts, rape victims… anything like that come to mind?

I cannot comprehend why SF want to retain at the helm of their party a man who displays no competence for, or interest in, a Government role; who regularly embarrasses the party on economic matters; who makes utterly incredible claims regarding IRA non-membership; and who now sees his reputation sink further, having allegedly impeded justice for underage rape victims.

For how long can the Cult of Gerry survive? I'm no fan of Mary-Lou McDonald, but at least her barmy opinions are more amusing than she is offensive. She carries no personal human-rights' violations baggage, which is a clean slate many of us prefer in our leaders….

IMO Adams remains at the helm because SF is like no other party.
Dissention is not permitted, if it was there would have been a heave long ago.

My fear of a SF led government in Ireland would be that dissention would not be allowed either and our democracy would slowely but surely be lost.

BoJack Horseman

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

IMO Adams remains at the helm because SF is like no other party.
Dissention is not permitted, if it was there would have been a heave long ago.

My fear of a SF led government in Ireland would be that dissention would not be allowed either and our democracy would slowely but surely be lost.

Thankfully, SF have absolutely zero interest in government..... its an awfull lot like hard work.

http://www.thejournal.ie/mary-lou-mcdonald-sinn-fein-government-1865502-Jan2015/

MARY LOU MCDONALD has expressed her view that Sinn Féin would have to be the largest party in the country before it would consider going into the government after the next election.

She knows as well as we do that a 50+ seat SF Dáil representation is all but impossible....
So, why vote for someone unwilling to participate in government?

alaimacerc

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

She knows as well as we do that a 50+ seat SF Dáil representation is all but impossible....

Does sound like she's cranking up the threshold: previously it was just "left-led". Which merely requires:

a) We pretend SF is a "left" party, and not a bunch of nasty nationalist opportunists with some flatpack economic policies.
b) SF, the "hard" left, Labour, and a few "left-leaning" indies add up to more than FF's total. And there will be plenty of indies after the next one fancying they can bluff their way through that one. Even Ming seemed to have the occasional such notion, despite having politics that were anything but.
c) And, the above can reach 79, or at least bluff their way through a vote on taoiseach after an election in which FG is licking its wounds, Labour is trying to get the number of that truck, and they're repeatedly yelled at that they've "lost their mandate" and need to pipe down.

Bigger than not just FF but also than FG seems like a much bigger ask.

So, why vote for someone unwilling to participate in government?

Because they've been told to? It's "building the brand". One more heave the election afterwards. At least for the true believers.

OTOH... It's not going to be good for the transfers, is it? Aside from a few "deep green" FF types that think MLMcD is just spoofing and are salivating at the idea of the all-republican, all the time coalition. That the SF leadership keep trying to talk back down again.

alaimacerc

conorh91 wrote: »

For how long can the Cult of Gerry survive? I'm no fan of Mary-Lou McDonald, but at least her barmy opinions are more amusing than she is offensive. She carries no personal human-rights' violations baggage, which is a clean slate many of us prefer in our leaders….

I think "barmy" is a tad harsh, but I broadly agree otherwise. She has the party's baggage all the same, but she tends to offset it, rather than vastly compound it.

But I can't see Gerry stepping down over the next few years. How would it play up north, or to the "Republican Base"? Maybe some horrible compromise where McD becomes leader in the Dáíl, and Gerry stays as president -- but that was what we had before, so flip-flopping between the two would seem horrifically confused.

Maybe I'm kidding myself, but I just can't get my head around the idea of GA as An Taoiseach ("revolving" or otherwise).

alaimacerc

For Reals wrote: »

Just to note that when Sinn Fein are topping, 'these polls carry no real weight' etc.

Just like the ones like this, where they're not. Especially where the Independents are the ones "topping", which as I've pointed out tends to make a nonsense of the whole business. Though if you were busy salivating the prospects of an Adams-Ross coalition and we're harshing your mellow, all apologies.

RDM_83 again

Ok to leave aside the usual SF/Anti-SF warfare, what does this mean for Labour? I know the polls are innaccurate but they do seem to have a consistency in their (Labs) results in the polls that might actually be backed up in an actual election.
Is it decimation time or is it survivable for them?

BoJack Horseman

RDM_83 again wrote: »

Ok to leave aside the usual SF/Anti-SF warfare, what does this mean for Labour? I know the polls are innaccurate but they do seem to have a consistency in their (Labs) results in the polls that might actually be backed up in an actual election.
Is it decimation time or is it survivable for them?

A literal decimation would be a great result!
I'd imagine they will return 10-14 TDs.... Relying on popular local personalities rather than any particular grá for the party as a whole.

They will, however be in the next government, with 1 senior & 1 junior ministry for their efforts.

alaimacerc

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

They will, however be in the next government, with 1 senior & 1 junior ministry for their efforts.

Why are you so sure of that? PD fashion revival prediction?

BoJack Horseman

alaimacerc wrote: »

Why are you so sure of that? PD fashion revival prediction?

They will be in government out of necessity to make up the numbers..... And with a dozen or so TDs are going to get a seat at the cabinet table.

What coalition partner hasn't had a cabinet position?

alaimacerc

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

They will be in government out of necessity to make up the numbers.....

With whom? Or are you assuming "whatever else is going + Labour"?

BoJack Horseman

alaimacerc wrote: »

With whom? Or are you assuming "whatever else is going + Labour"?

More or less.

The next Dáil may have as little as 110 party member TDs.

Even a hammered Labour party with a dozen or so TDs will find itself back at the cabinet table.

The alternative is herding a similar number of cats/Indies.... which is obviously trickier.

Fr Tod Umptious

RDM_83 again wrote: »

Ok to leave aside the usual SF/Anti-SF warfare, what does this mean for Labour? I know the polls are innaccurate but they do seem to have a consistency in their (Labs) results in the polls that might actually be backed up in an actual election.
Is it decimation time or is it survivable for them?

Its probably easier to predict the fate of Labour than that of SF.

The right of center will not vote for them because in govt they were too far left and a hindrance to progress, the left of center will not vote for them because they were too far right and deserted their core.

As junior partners they will be hung out to dry and will rebound after 15 or so years of being the party of protest.

Rinse and repeat

alaimacerc

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

More or less.

The next Dáil may have as little as 110 party member TDs.

Even a hammered Labour party with a dozen or so TDs will find itself back at the cabinet table.

The alternative is herding a similar number of cats/Indies.... which is obviously trickier.

Surely if there's very large numbers of Indies in the next Dail (50! I feel a swoon coming on...) they'll have by that point have herded themselves into several "groupings" (whether the ones accreting at present or otherwise). If only because otherwise an omnitechnicalshamblesgroup is too horrific a prospect to contemplate. So the difficulties of dealing with them may be somewhat overstated.

FG+Labour being returned still seems very unlikely, unless it can square the minority government or support from some Indies circle. FF+SF seems likely to need Indies regardless, and if Labour were to throw in with that lot, they'd look very desperately-clinging-to-power indeed. FG+FF still seems like the unthinkable, but it might not need anyone else at all.

alaimacerc

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

As junior partners they will be hung out to dry and will rebound after 15 or so years of being the party of protest.

Rinse and repeat

What the "repeat" looks like depends if there's any of the long-threatened "realignment" in the meantime. Will there be a credible "left bloc" for them to be the moderate/sane/non-toxic/non-nasty-nationalist wing of? Or will the left as a whole stay strictly a minority interest, with people drifting aimless between brands without meaningfully increasing their numbers?

Though to be fair, the next election looks to be hard enough to call. Trying it for three elections out would seem to be quite the challenge.

Quin_Dub

FYI - Full historical list of Opinion polls since the Last GE is here

As far as the next Dail goes I can't see beyond an FG/LAB + Others government to be honest.

FG will end up with around 54/55 seats (having brought those that lost the whip back on-board, excluding Lucinda)

This is based on the fact that 36% of the vote in 2011 got them 76 seats..Assuming that by the time the election comes around they'll be sitting at maybe 27/28% in the polls that would bring them ~55 seats in a 158 seat Dail.

The same calculations for Labour , assuming they stay around the 8/9% mark would give them around 14 seats, although I suspect they might not quite to that level maybe 12 is a more realistic number..

So - FG/Lab will have somewhere around 66/67 seats combined..

FF will come in around 25 seats , SF will come at about 20 seats , leaving 47 seats for the Independents et al..

At ~25 seats FF won't go in to Government with anybody.

SF have already stated that they will only go in as the largest party and at the ~20 seat level there are just way too many cats to be herded to make that workable.

The only viable Government to be made in the above scenario is a minority FG/Lab +Others mix sitting at around 6/7 seats short of an overall majority

Godge

alaimacerc wrote: »

Surely if there's very large numbers of Indies in the next Dail (50! I feel a swoon coming on...) they'll have by that point have herded themselves into several "groupings" (whether the ones accreting at present or otherwise). If only because otherwise an omnitechnicalshamblesgroup is too horrific a prospect to contemplate. So the difficulties of dealing with them may be somewhat overstated.

FG+Labour being returned still seems very unlikely, unless it can square the minority government or support from some Indies circle. FF+SF seems likely to need Indies regardless, and if Labour were to throw in with that lot, they'd look very desperately-clinging-to-power indeed. FG+FF still seems like the unthinkable, but it might not need anyone else at all.

FG + Lab + Ross Group is possible, even Lucinda or the Greens if necessary. That grouping could well get a majority of 5-10.

Donnelly staying out of the Ross group is interesting as it suggests it is populist rather than right-wing slash the public sector as it might otherwise have been, which in turn makes it a group easier for FG/Lab to do business with.

The only way I could see FF going in with FG is if they are smaller than SF. In that scenario FF would have a choice, second biggest in government or second biggest in opposition. The obvious choice is second biggest in government as you will have some goodies to hand out.

It is very speculative at this stage as we are still a long way out. I suspect the polls from next September onwards to tell the most. In the meantime, keeping an eye on trends is the way to go.

Godge

http://adriankavanaghelections.org/2015/01/14/the-empire-strikes-back-constituency-level-analysis-of-the-paddy-power-red-c-opinion-poll-14th-january-2015/#more-7694


Some additional reading on the implications of the poll.

Quin_Dub

Poll Date Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Green Others
Milward Brown Poll 19/05/2014 20 6 21 23 2 27
Euro Election 23/05/2014 22.28 5.3 22.31 19.5 4.9 25.7
Local Election 23/05/2014 24 7.2 25.3 15.2 1.6 26.7
Milward Brown Poll 04/06/2014 20 5 20 26 2 27
Avg Opinion Poll 20 5.5 20.5 24.5 2 27
Avg Vote % 23.14 6.25 23.805 17.35 3.25 26.2
Difference in Performance 16% 14% 16% -29% 63% -3%



Another view of opinion polls..

Table shows the 2 opinion polls immediately before & after the Local/Euro elections and then the actual % of the vote captured in those elections..

Averaging the 2 opinion polls and the 2 votes and then comparing the Vote performance vs. the Opinion polls is quite interesting..

FF/FG/Lab all captured 14-16% more votes than their opinion poll performance suggested , whereas SF captured a whopping 29% less votes than their poll performance..Yet their post election poll result was higher than before the election..

Independents were 3% down , so not a huge gap there..

The Greens performance is skewed by the fact that they are at such a low level and their relatively strong Euro performance.

If that Poll vs. Vote mix was to be replicated in the next GE , SF have a huge problem; as for them to get to a position where they'd be able to form a government as the largest party , they'd need to be polling north of 50% in the opinion polls to put them in line for the 35-40 seats that they'd need to be a realistic Snr. Partner in Government.

BoJack Horseman

Its a good post Quin.

Transfer toxicity also hampers the Shinner seat percentage vs poll percentage.

However SF can still maximise their chances by not running multiple candidates in constituancie.

The other parties often handicap themselves by splitting their vote too much.

Quin_Dub

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Its a good post Quin.

Transfer toxicity also hampers the Shinner seat percentage vs poll percentage.

However SF can still maximise their chances by not running multiple candidates in constituancie.

The other parties often handicap themselves by splitting their vote too much.

Not sure that 1 candidate per constituency will do it for them..

Look at what happened in the Dublin by-election - Topped the 1st preference but lost out on transfers..

I also think that when SF add more candidates and run in every constituency it will be hard left candidates that they'll squeeze out more than main party ones , particularly in Dublin.

For example , Paul Murphy ,Ruth Copinger & Richard Boyd-Barrett are going to be targeted in a big way by SF to get seats..They'll also go after Joe Higgins old seat.

So that's 3 or 4 seats that they could very well pick up without hurting the incumbent government one bit..

I also think that SF rely on the personality/credentials of the candidate a bit more than FG/FF. That's not necessarily a bad thing insofar as it means that the person gets elected based on the work they've done locally as a Councillor or whatever, whereas you regularly see the "party vote" for FF/FG where a no name (or Family name but no history) candidate gets elected (see the election of sister and daughter of deceased FG TD's in recent times). This is part of the reason why no SF candidate ever brings home a running mate , they get a personal vote , but not a party vote..

alaimacerc

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

However SF can still maximise their chances by not running multiple candidates in constituancie.

The other parties often handicap themselves by splitting their vote too much.

Don't see how really applies. What the "traditional" parties do is to run multiple "local strokes for local folks" candidates at each end of a constituency. This sometimes helps because it takes more votes in that area; it sometimes hinders because some people will only vote for that candidate then go home for the cuppa, or else, transfer to other "we need something for this town!" candidates.

SF candidates are toxic to non-SF, but not to other SF. In fact, where they have run multiple candidates (in the North, locals) I bet you see an especially high degree of intra-party transfers. If they thought they'd a shot at taking two seats out of five anywhere, they'd do it, and I'm sure it would hold up, to that extent. Still have the external transfer problem, though.

For Reals

Godge wrote: »

Since this poll came out, there has been a load of sniping on this and the other thread about how I am highlighting a poll when supposedly previously I have dissed them. Not surprisingly, most of those sniping are SF supporters....

I was generalising about the usual view by some that these posts carry no weight if topped by Sinn Fein. I wasn't specifically pointing at you.
However you do accuse others with opposing views of sniping and bias. You're hardly the opposite, giving a clear thought out unbiased view, statistics or no. You've a right to your view, unless you're a Fine Gael party member (and Enda's in a huff) but don't try sell it like its pure logic based on numbers.

Quin_Dub

alaimacerc wrote: »

Don't see how really applies. What the "traditional" parties do is to run multiple "local strokes for local folks" candidates at each end of a constituency. This sometimes helps because it takes more votes in that area; it sometimes hinders because some people will only vote for that candidate then go home for the cuppa, or else, transfer to other "we need something for this town!" candidates.

SF candidates are toxic to non-SF, but not to other SF. In fact, where they have run multiple candidates (in the North, locals) I bet you see an especially high degree of intra-party transfers. If they thought they'd a shot at taking two seats out of five anywhere, they'd do it, and I'm sure it would hold up, to that extent. Still have the external transfer problem, though.

They've never taken 2 seats here though , just don't see it happening..

Of their "Big names" only Gerry Adams and Pearse Doherty got a 1st round quota and not much more , so little head-room for a running mate...

In fact , the other "names" - Mary Lou, Aongus O'Snodaigh , Martin Ferris - All got in on the last seat in their constituencies..

I just don't see any place where they'll pick up 2 seats in a constituency...The only potential one is Dublin SW and it'll be Paul Murphy they pick off , not Pat Rabbitte...

oscarBravo

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Another view of opinion polls..

I like visualising data.