Cheltenham Festival 2015

frank93 · 06-03-2015 11:50PM

Miall108 wrote: »

Yes it was only discovered after the race at Ascot and was classed as a low grade bleed. Apparently these generally do not affect performance

But take into account how long he was off the track for and I think it was a really good run against a horse who in my onion was at the peak of his powers that day. Sprinter will come on for the run and won't be too far away come Wednesday. A interesting little fact regarding the last couple of winners of the champion. The champion hurdle has been won by a horse who has finished third in its last festival run the previous year. Hurricane fly jetzki binocular .... this points to a the new one victory if this stat was to continue..

Diggy78 · 07-03-2015 12:06AM

frank93 wrote: »

But take into account how long he was off the track for and I think it was a really good run against a horse who in my onion was at the peak of his powers that day. Sprinter will come on for the run and won't be too far away come Wednesday. A interesting little fact regarding the last couple of winners of the champion. The champion hurdle has been won by a horse who has finished third in its last festival run the previous year. Hurricane fly jetzki binocular .... this points to a the new one victory if this stat was to continue..

The last bit would be a nice trend if true but been a few horses between hf and binocular. None of which finished 3 rd at festival previous. Hf and rock on ruby being the ones I'm thinkin of.

Miall108 · 07-03-2015 12:09AM

frank93 wrote: »

But take into account how long he was off the track for and I think it was a really good run against a horse who in my onion was at the peak of his powers that day. Sprinter will come on for the run and won't be too far away come Wednesday. A interesting little fact regarding the last couple of winners of the champion. The champion hurdle has been won by a horse who has finished third in its last festival run the previous year. Hurricane fly jetzki binocular .... this points to a the new one victory if this stat was to continue..

That was definately on my mind and is why I think he can win it. I dont think the blood thing will affect his performance should it happen(hopefully it doesnt). He did tire a bit at the end in Ascot but I dont think the bleeding was to blame for that and Dodging Bullets took over which is certainly understandable considering he was out the best part of a year. Definately more in the tank for Sprinter provided the obvious things go right for him on the day

Im fancying The New One myself for the Champion Hurdle, possibly could have won last year was he not hampered by the fall of the late Our Conor. I think theres a lot being made about Hurricane Flys age but he has beaten Jezki 3 times this year and is close to his very best. Will definately give him a go each way. Only reservation I would have is can he translate his form on the Irish tracks to Cheltenham

frank93 · 07-03-2015 12:16AM

Diggy78 wrote: »

The last bit would be a nice trend if true but been a few horses between hf and binocular. None of which finished 3 rd at festival previous. Hf and rock on ruby being the ones I'm thinkin of.

Yes thsys correct. Since 2010 . Binocular won the champion in 2010 finished third the previous year at the festival. 2011 hurricane fly - no run the previous year. 2012 rock on ruby won the champion finished 2nd the year before to first lieutenant . 2013 hurricane fly won having finished third in the 2012 renewal. 2014 jetzki won after finishing third in his previous festival run behind champagne fever and mtoy.

lemush · 07-03-2015 12:20AM

Miall108 wrote: »

Well yes the reservations are his well documented health problems as someone mentioned previously and the fact he bled on his comeback race at Ascot. But look Henderson and Geraghty have been really talking him up of late saying hes in great condition. They dont seem too worried about his chances of winning. He certainly has the pedigree

Of course they are going to talk him up. They aren't gonna come out telling us any different. You can bet they are both terrified and the simple fact is not even they know what's gonna happen when push comes to shove this Tuesday. He's the one horse I can't understand anyone backing particularly at the price he is.

frank93 · 07-03-2015 12:23AM

lemush wrote: »

Of course they are going to talk him up. They aren't gonna come out telling us any different. You can bet they are both terrified and the simple fact is not even they know what's gonna happen when push comes to shove this Tuesday. He's the one horse I can't understand anyone backing particularly at the price he is.

If they weren't happy with him then I feel the wouldn't run him. Both Barry and Nicky must be reasonably satisfied with him ..

lemush · 07-03-2015 12:27AM

frank93 wrote: »

If they weren't happy with him then I feel the wouldn't run him. Both Barry and Nicky must be reasonably satisfied with him ..

Agree totally but nobody knows what's gonna happen when push comes to shove this Tuesday. Everyone reads races differently but I thought Geraghty was terrified to ask him for any effort at Ascot. I think he's an absolutely shocking price.

mulbot · 07-03-2015 12:34AM

Miall108 wrote: »

Yes it was only discovered after the race at Ascot and was classed as a low grade bleed. Apparently these generally do not affect performance

bleeding in the lungs does affect performance,it fills up the alveoli in the lungs stopping oxygen and a horse can't be running at it max potential if that happens,it's why the USA allows lasix to be used

Miall108 · 07-03-2015 12:35AM

lemush wrote: »

Of course they are going to talk him up. They aren't gonna come out telling us any different. You can bet they are both terrified and the simple fact is not even they know what's gonna happen when push comes to shove this Tuesday. He's the one horse I can't understand anyone backing particularly at the price he is.

Well look none of us knows but anything can happen on the day. I like most people who are backing him at that price would probably rather cling to the hope that he has the potential to blitz all before him if he hits form and considering 2nd place at Ascot on his first race back was a pretty good race for him despite the bleed(which has been said many times the extent of his bleed wouldnt generally affect a horses performance), I have a feeling there is more to come from him. Then again I could be proven wrong

frank93 · 07-03-2015 12:36AM

lemush wrote: »

Agree totally but nobody knows what's gonna happen when push comes to shove this Tuesday. Everyone reads races differently but I thought Geraghty was terrified to ask him for any effort at Ascot. I think he's an absolutely shocking price.

Yea geraghty didn't push him out or ask him for a effort. I think it was more of a race course gallop for him. I felt he travelled strongly and then just stopped in his tracks when he went behind. - i put thst down to the fact he wasnt 100% fit.. Although it has to be said he wasn't beating that far that day a couple of lengths? . With special tiara out in front this will be ran quick and sprinter sacre has huge cruising speed, which this race will be ran to suit. Can't see him being out of the top 2.

Miall108 · 07-03-2015 12:40AM

mulbot wrote: »

bleeding in the lungs does affect performance,it fills up the alveoli in the lungs stopping oxygen and a horse can't be running at it max potential if that happens,it's why the USA allows lasix to be used

It does depending on the extent of the bleed. Might be worth reading this, very interesting article re Sprinter Sacre at Ascot and bleeding.....http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/jan/23/expert-evidence-soothes-concern-sprinter-sacre-bleeding

lemush · 07-03-2015 12:42AM

frank93 wrote: »

Yea geraghty didn't push him out or ask him for a effort. I think it was more of a race course gallop for him. I felt he travelled strongly and then just stopped in his tracks when he went behind. - i put thst down to the fact he wasnt 100% fit.. Although it has to be said he wasn't beating that far that day a couple of lengths? . With special tiara out in front this will be ran quick and sprinter sacre has huge cruising speed, which this race will be ran to suit. Can't see him being out of the top 2.

Like I said all about opinions but I thought Geraghty was terrified to ask him for any effort more than him getting tired because no doubt in my mind that if he was 80% the horse he was he would have been fit enough to beat Dodging Bullets. British handicapper marked him up as running 20lbs below his mark, he bled after the race yet he's 11/4 to win the Champion Chase I just think it's mental. I think there's a hole in him and I can see him being absolutely stuffed.

Hulk Hands · 07-03-2015 01:04AM

lemush wrote: »

Like I said all about opinions but I thought Geraghty was terrified to ask him for any effort more than him getting tired because no doubt in my mind that if he was 80% the horse he was he would have been fit enough to beat Dodging Bullets. British handicapper marked him up as running 20lbs below his mark, he bled after the race yet he's 11/4 to win the Champion Chase I just think it's mental. I think there's a hole in him and I can see him being absolutely stuffed.

The horse with the consensus best form in the race is Dodging Bullets. Plenty of people dont fancy him at Cheltenham, but outside of there you'd be hard pressed to say any of the opposition couldve ran up to a much higher mark than him this year. Maybe Sire De Grugy wouldve beaten him at Ascot but it wouldnt have been a procession.

Yet we have SS on his first run back for over a year, on ground that didnt suit, given a very tender ride, and bled during the race. Yet the form 2m horse of the year could only beat him 2l given all that. If SS improves 6-10lb from that run, he'll win this race with a bit to spare imo. While I doubt that may happen, 11/4 is a fair enough price that it does. If 11/4 is a mental price in your opinion, then what would be a fair one?

lemush · 07-03-2015 01:17AM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

The horse with the consensus best form in the race is Dodging Bullets. Plenty of people dont fancy him at Cheltenham, but outside of there you'd be hard pressed to say any of the opposition couldve ran up to a much higher mark than him this year. Maybe Sire De Grugy wouldve beaten him at Ascot but it wouldnt have been a procession.

Yet we have SS on his first run back for over a year, on ground that didnt suit, given a very tender ride, and bled during the race. Yet the form 2m horse of the year could only beat him 2l given all that. If SS improves 6-10lb from that run, he'll win this race with a bit to spare imo. While I doubt that may happen, 11/4 is a fair enough price that it does. If 11/4 is a mental price in your opinion, then what would be a fair one?

He should without a doubt be behind DG and SDG in the betting imo. And quite a bit. If for nothing but the fact that they have proved their wellbeing. But I think he was fit enough to do the job at Ascot if anything like the horse he was, he couldn't do it and bled. Can't have him at 11/4.

HarshOstrich · 07-03-2015 07:28AM

Lads at the end of the day sprinter sacre nearly won on his comeback run when his jumping was no where near his best, and he was also never really asked for an effort so I couldn't put anyone off backing him if that's as bad as he can run.
I was mad on taking him on but I think it's pointless now.

pugw · 07-03-2015 07:44AM

lemush wrote: »

Agree totally but nobody knows what's gonna happen when push comes to shove this Tuesday. Everyone reads races differently but I thought Geraghty was terrified to ask him for any effort at Ascot. I think he's an absolutely shocking price.

Agreed BG didn't give him a hard race but to my mind it was just a prep run to dust off the cobwebs for cheltenham! I think he's a certainty

Jon Stark · 07-03-2015 07:48AM

I think Barry will do the same thing on Wednesday as he did last time; he'll briefly ask for an effort and once he doesn't get the right vibes he'll quickly bow out.

DB was off the bridle last time while SS was seemingly going well. The race was there to be won if SS was good enough but Barry was afraid to pull the trigger. That would worry me.

Deco99 · 07-03-2015 08:13AM

Would there be a list of Sam Twiston Davis rides for festival? Thinking of backing him for top jock if he has a good book.

Backstreet Moyes · 07-03-2015 09:47AM

Just watched Smashing's run again behind Un De Sceaux he is a massive price for the Arkle.

andyman · 07-03-2015 09:48AM

Any top jock bet I'll be doing is after day 1. Cooper has a very good book and will be a decent price on Tuesday evening

longshotvalue · 07-03-2015 09:55AM

Nuts102 wrote: »

Just watched Smashing's run again behind Un De Sceaux he is a massive price for the Arkle.

I had just been looking at last years races, and look at his run in the Coral Cup. Add in festival form into the mix..

jimjamcos · 07-03-2015 10:16AM

Nuts102 wrote: »

Just watched Smashing's run again behind Un De Sceaux he is a massive price for the Arkle.

7/1 in the W/O UDS market is stonking value for him to be in first 4.

Backstreet Moyes · 07-03-2015 10:27AM

jimjamcos wrote: »

7/1 in the W/O UDS market is stonking value for him to be in first 4.

I have pittance e/w at 40/1. Not sure whether to took into 25/1 e/w now or wait for the betting w/o market on the day.

Trouble in P · 07-03-2015 10:41AM

Looking through Chelt. Specials on PP and noticed that Ireland are 11/4 to win the Prestbury Cup against England who are 1/4 (i.e Irish horses versus English horses). Anybody think this is value, its hard to recall Mullins and Gigginstown in particular sending over a stronger hand in previous years. Doesn't Willie Mullins have over 150 horses travelling over to Cheltenham

posturingpat · 07-03-2015 10:41AM

Deco99 wrote: »

Would there be a list of Sam Twiston Davis rides for festival? Thinking of backing him for top jock if he has a good book.

I like Sam and think hell have a good festival but theres a good few races where he wont have any rides,the supreme for one looks like he mighnt have one. Hard to see him do it

Backstreet Moyes · 07-03-2015 10:44AM

Lads are those specials guaranteed price i doubt it? Peace and Co 3/1 enhanced on Betfair.

jimjamcos · 07-03-2015 10:48AM

Nuts102 wrote: »

I have pittance e/w at 40/1. Not sure whether to took into 25/1 e/w now or wait for the betting w/o market on the day.

Paddy Power have Betting W/O market up already. It's cliché but I honestly believe he's a ew bet to nothing and 7/1 in that is seriously good value.

UDS - should win
Vibrato - given the poor ride earlier in season when he gave VV too much to do and the subsequent criticism from both public and Nicholls, I think STD won't want to give UDS too much rein which may cost him.

Josses Hill - may not get round on what we've seen

Sgt Reckless - may not run given prep. Also in County Hurdle.

I think both Smashing 7/1 and Clarcam 9/2 are certs to be ridden for a place with Smashing a standout.

Backstreet Moyes · 07-03-2015 10:50AM

Boyles special looks very good 3/1 Don Cossack and Paint the clouds to both place.

driver02 · 07-03-2015 10:53AM

What's the difference between lucky 15 and cross doubles just wondering which is best.

Mountainlad · 07-03-2015 11:54AM

jimjamcos wrote: »

Paddy Power have Betting W/O market up already. It's cliché but I honestly believe he's a ew bet to nothing and 7/1 in that is seriously good value.

UDS - should win
Vibrato - given the poor ride earlier in season when he gave VV too much to do and the subsequent criticism from both public and Nicholls, I think STD won't want to give UDS too much rein which may cost him.

Josses Hill - may not get round on what we've seen

Sgt Reckless - may not run given prep. Also in County Hurdle.

I think both Smashing 7/1 and Clarcam 9/2 are certs to be ridden for a place with Smashing a standout.

Wouldn't that be 7/1 he finishes first or second, whereas if you back e/w with Ladbrokes at 25/1 you've 5.25/1 on the place side and extra place. Given it could be a small field, better value? I know you run the risk of a double stake loss if he doesn't place but I suppose you also have the marginal chance he could win if UDS falls.

Cheltenham Festival 2015

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