I am convinced that Ireland is in Serious trouble

RecordStraight · 23-02-2015 05:20PM

CruelCoin wrote: »

Again, idiots if you didn't buy at the lowest.

Yes, anyone who didn't time a property purchase at the nadir is an idiot. :rolleyes:

handlemaster · 23-02-2015 05:21PM

6541 wrote: »

I am of the opinion that Ireland is in serious trouble now.
I drove across the country at the weekend and it is shocking the state of some of the towns, street after street are lying derelict.
A whole generation have left.
There are zero jobs.
Where I live the soul has been ripped out of the town, go for a drink to be greeted with nobody in the pubs / clubs.
7 years of this and no sign of it ending !
The country is a basket case.

If people continue with that attitude every country would fail. Get up off your knees and do somthing to help you and your country.

Kermit.de.frog · 23-02-2015 05:21PM

I think things are really looking up for Ireland. The country took the medicine quickly and is recovering quicker than those countries that chose not to do that.

CruelCoin · 23-02-2015 05:27PM

6541 wrote: »

Here here, I actually get mad yes mad when people talk this property nonsense. Start looking at Visa options folks, last man out turn off the lights. This S**t just got real. When you hear the Taoiseach talking about been back on track and full employment by 2025 one has to go who the Fook is he kidding ! Just admit how bad it is.

Unemployment has gone from 14/15% in 2011 to 11% now. At this reate we'll be laughing well before 2025.

https://www.google.ie/?gws_rd=ssl#q=unemployment%20rates%20in%20ireland

Mind you, i love when you click to add Greece/spain to the graph how everything has to squish down to fit their spike.

CruelCoin · 23-02-2015 05:54PM

RecordStraight wrote: »

Yes, anyone who didn't time a property purchase at the nadir is an idiot. :rolleyes:

I'd put them in the same boat as all the clever clogs who bought at a peak, yes.

RecordStraight · 23-02-2015 05:58PM

CruelCoin wrote: »

I'd put them in the same boat as all the clever clogs who bought at a peak, yes.

What an idiotic thing to say. How did you know the month to buy?

CruelCoin · 23-02-2015 07:23PM

RecordStraight wrote: »

What an idiotic thing to say. How did you know the month to buy?

Magic

(read: comprehensive research and studying values)

I didn't get the month exact, how could i. But i can get close. Anywhere 20% either side of the nadir is fine. Piss-all off piss-all isn't worth talking about.

I missed the nadir in my area by 5k. I'm an idiot. :-(

RecordStraight · 23-02-2015 07:23PM

CruelCoin wrote: »

Magic

It kind of had to be.

CruelCoin · 23-02-2015 07:32PM

RecordStraight wrote: »

It kind of had to be.

How exactly?

price trend: 200-190-180-etc-etc-105-100-105 (demand starts kicking in at this point, supply drying up, mortage approval rates increasing, viewings in the area increasing dramatically)- 110-etc.

Doesn't take a genius to spot it here.

RecordStraight · 23-02-2015 07:42PM

CruelCoin wrote: »

How exactly?

price trend: 200-190-180-etc-etc-105-100-105 (demand starts kicking in at this point, supply drying up, mortage approval rates increasing, viewings in the area increasing dramatically)- 110-etc.

Doesn't take a genius to spot it here.

Yes, it's very easy to pick a (local) minimum in retrospect. Assuming, of course, that you need or want or are in a position to buy a property at that time.

CruelCoin · 23-02-2015 07:52PM

RecordStraight wrote: »

Yes, it's very easy to pick a (local) minimum in retrospect. Assuming, of course, that you need or want or are in a position to buy a property at that time.

By and large people are not looking at the national averages as a measure of when to buy a home. They are nearly always, or should be, looking at local values. What good to me is a house in roscommon when i'm working in kildare for example?

I've been prepping for the bottom for years now, and been wanting to buy for years, saving and biding my time. A rush job of strolling down to your bank and getting a 100% mortgage the day after you made your mind up is idiocy. A purchase of this magnitude should never be rushed, and therefore, people should have plenty of time to plan for it and think it over.

KomradeBishop · 23-02-2015 07:55PM

andrew wrote: »

Keynes was OK with it as a representation of his views, so that's good enough for me. I'm aware that there's considerable debate about what Keynes actually meant about a lot of stuff, it's too bad he didn't use more maths in order to make it clearer.

IS/LM assumes economies tend towards equilibrium, when this is not true - it also assumes central banks determine the money supply, when we know (thanks to the BoE report) that that is not true, the desire for loans determines the money supply.

Keynes endorsed conflicting versions of the same IS/LM framework - so there's not really much to take from that; and remember, Hicks himself disowned IS/LM.

IS/LM is not a valid/useful macroeconomic model - there is plenty of easily found material out there, debunking it in a clear/lucid manner.

andrew wrote: »

No, but I've got a degree in those Economics courses which 'Debunking Econonomics' presumably debunks, and I'm in the middle of an Economics post-grad right now, so I've got at decent idea of what modern economics courses focus on, and the 'canon' is a synthesis of a bunch of different ideas, converging on a methodology more than anything else. I've been studying behavioural economics for the last 5 weeks, specifically looking at explantions for why people don't act in accordance with standard assumptions - a course which 'debunking economics' no doubt assumes never exists in modern economics departments.

Debunking economics specifically deals with Behavioural Economics, criticizing the concept of 'expected utility' directly - among more; if you have it in your library, just flick through the index at the back for anything you might want to find criticisms of (it's worth having, just for this purpose alone - to spur critical thinking, by trying to find criticisms, and then you can research answers to those criticisms - always worth testing knowledge like this, no?

).

andrew wrote: »

]No, we didn’t cover those particular schools of thought for the same reason that modern doctors aren’t taught about humours and the like. Anything useful which those schools have contributed (price theory, for example, from Austrian economics) has been subsumed into what we just call ‘economics,’ and the rest is…not economics. I’m sure the Austrian belief that Empirics aren’t a thing will yield much better Economic forecasts. Suggesting that those courses be taught in response to current failings of economic theory is like suggesting that doctors start taking homeopathy seriously because people keep dying of cancer.

You're not studying a pluralistic course in that case.

I'd absolutely agree with you, on Austrian economics being akin to homeopathy in many regards (praxeology is an hilarious example of trying to trump reality with theory) - however, I'd also view many neoclassical views as being the same as well

That said, students should be introduced to everything - including the core tenets of the main competing economic theories (woo included), so they can make up their own minds.
If you look into Post-Keynesian economic theory, you'll find plenty of decent criticisms of neoclassical theory, and many solid alternative macroeconomic theories (that are not included in mainstream courses).

KomradeBishop · 23-02-2015 07:59PM

RecordStraight wrote: »

Ok, but that's a bit like the guy who rubbishes the theory of Gravity but has no other explanation for how things work. And, no offence, I'd be rather slow to take advice on Physics from the guy.

I've plenty of competing theories/economic-views, I just don't need to present them to debunk neoclassical views; I've posted them on the Economics forum before (including my latest post there).

If all you know about how astrophysics works, is what astrology teaches you - and if you are well aware of the flaws in astrology - then you don't just hold onto it because you can't think of any better ideas, given how easily it is debunked.

RecordStraight · 23-02-2015 08:34PM

KomradeBishop wrote: »

I've plenty of competing theories/economic-views, I just don't need to present them to debunk neoclassical views; I've posted them on the Economics forum before (including my latest post there).

You don't need to, but it may affect your credibility if you don't explain.

KomradeBishop wrote: »

If all you know about how astrophysics works, is what astrology teaches you - and if you are well aware of the flaws in astrology - then you don't just hold onto it because you can't think of any better ideas, given how easily it is debunked.

Your analogy falls down somewhat as astrology isn't a science at all. If you said astronomy, you'd be a bit closer to the mark.

Baggy Trousers · 23-02-2015 08:43PM

I drove from Sligo to Kenmare recently and what struck me was the number of closed pubs and shops in medium sized towns. Some well know towns were ghost towns. I was looking out for a nice pub that would do decent all day pub grub but it was very hard to find. I stopped at 2 pubs that looked really nice from the outside only to see that they were closed.

Anesthetize · 23-02-2015 08:58PM

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

I drove from Sligo to Kenmare recently and what struck me was the number of closed pubs and shops in medium sized towns. Some well know towns were ghost towns. I was looking out for a nice pub that would do decent all day pub grub but it was very hard to find. I stopped at 2 pubs that looked really nice from the outside only to see that they were closed.

I bet you saw plenty of one-off housing out in the middle of nowhere as well, miles away from any shop or pub.

23-02-2015 09:14PM

Great as things are in Dublin at the moment, looking forward, Dublin hasn't the capacity to sustain it in terms of space for development of office space, housing needs, transport etc. There is only a certain level Dublin can grow to due to its location.

Around the country villages and towns are being left behind. Its not possible for every town to thrive but a decentralisation policy of sorts brought forward but not carried through all those years ago should be reviewed in terms of settling on a few key towns and trying to generate something in those areas. We need the likes of Waterford, Athlone, Tullamore, Castlebar, Letterkenny, Thurles, Clones etc. to be towns that can be self-sufficient. If there are a few key hub towns throughout the country that generate employment other places will benefit. For example with the motorway, Athlone or Tullamore are perfect locations to act as a focal point for the midlands counties.

The Apple development in Athenry today is a big boost for the area but more of this is needed in key locations around Ireland. Great work has been done to attract top companies to Dublin but as we should have learned by now, a balanced economy needs more than a focus on one sector or one key city.

KingBrian2 · 23-02-2015 09:14PM

Ireland is experiencing a bubble in forecasters. People who know nothing about economics arguing that we are going down the drain. Just not true. Even the most basic indicators, emigration, unemployment and social welfare recipients are all in decline. The most serious issue is debt payments. The national debt is way too high and if that declined we would be in better times.

Unfortunately from my limited knowledge of the subject I would say it is unlikely to be brought down anytime soon, the old agreement of separating banking and government debt is not yet approved by the €uropean central bank as it is dead opposed. With Greece talking about parking its debt mountain in the €CB's vaults the idea will be even less palpable.

Anesthetize · 23-02-2015 09:24PM

Borders no.2 wrote: »

Great as things are in Dublin at the moment, looking forward, Dublin hasn't the capacity to sustain it in terms of space for development of office space, housing needs, transport etc. There is only a certain level Dublin can grow to due to its location.

Dublin does have the capacity for growth but it needs to go high rise. You're always going to get people who'll say it will ruin the cityscape but it's something that needs to happen to Dublin. It's better to grow upwards than outwards.

For example with the motorway, Athlone or Tullamore are perfect locations to act as a focal point for the midlands counties.

There was the whole Midlands Gateway project involving Athlone, Mullingar and Tullamore which quietly vanished after a few years. I guess the recession hindered any sort of progress in that.

KomradeBishop · 23-02-2015 09:54PM

RecordStraight wrote: »

You don't need to, but it may affect your credibility if you don't explain.

Not really - I can perfectly credibly tear apart neoclassical economics, without allowing posters to try and distract from that with "well what are your alternatives?"

RecordStraight wrote: »

Your analogy falls down somewhat as astrology isn't a science at all. If you said astronomy, you'd be a bit closer to the mark.

That is the whole point - neoclassical economics is to economics, as astrology is to astronomy. Also, economics isn't a science either...

As I said, you don't just hold onto a wrong theory (neoclassical-economics/astrology), just because you can't presently think of a better one.

KomradeBishop · 23-02-2015 10:03PM

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Ireland is experiencing a bubble in forecasters. People who know nothing about economics arguing that we are going down the drain. Just not true. Even the most basic indicators, emigration, unemployment and social welfare recipients are all in decline. The most serious issue is debt payments. The national debt is way too high and if that declined we would be in better times.

Unfortunately from my limited knowledge of the subject I would say it is unlikely to be brought down anytime soon, the old agreement of separating banking and government debt is not yet approved by the €uropean central bank as it is dead opposed. With Greece talking about parking its debt mountain in the €CB's vaults the idea will be even less palpable.

We're already down the drain, and are only just barely trying to work our way back up again - a process that would take more than a decade at this rate - and when QE fails we're about to be washed back down again by deflation, in which case predicting a recovery within decades, will itself become a very quaintly optimistic statement.

The block to all potential recoveries, will be: Deflation.

There is no plan in place to avoid deflation - QE only delays it briefly; all the solutions needed for avoiding/resolving deflation, are probably not going to become politically possible for many years.

monkeysnapper · 23-02-2015 10:09PM

2 weeks ago I traveled across uk , Ireland is doing just fine my friends.......just fine :0)

KingBrian2 · 23-02-2015 10:25PM

KomradeBishop wrote: »

We're already down the drain, and are only just barely trying to work our way back up again - a process that would take more than a decade at this rate - and when QE fails we're about to be washed back down again by deflation, in which case predicting a recovery within decades, will itself become a very quaintly optimistic statement.

The block to all potential recoveries, will be: Deflation.

There is no plan in place to avoid deflation - QE only delays it briefly; all the solutions needed for avoiding/resolving deflation, are probably not going to become politically possible for many years.

Maybe in your eyes but once again I refer to the actual economic picture. Growth has returned. Wages have improved and employers are hiring more people. If that is not good economic news than what figures you are looking at. Perhaps you would prefer a stagnating economy that is harmful to all citizens.

Baggy Trousers · 23-02-2015 10:28PM

Anesthetize wrote: »

I bet you saw plenty of one-off housing out in the middle of nowhere as well, miles away from any shop or pub.

I don't mind that. I live in a "one off house".

irishguitarlad · 23-02-2015 10:39PM

Just saw today that bus eireann are doing away with a good few routes,just thought this was relevant to this thread

Anesthetize · 23-02-2015 10:42PM

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

I don't mind that. I live in a "one off house".

I suppose it depends on location. In suburban areas it's ok but one-off housing in rural Ireland during the celtic tiger years went beyond a joke, and now it's come back around to bite the country in the ass. Pubs in rural Ireland shouldn't have to feel the pinch of drink-driving laws if so many people didn't build 2-story montrocities in some obscure townland in the middle of nowhere. It's also no wonder Ireland has broadband coverage well behind the rest of Europe.

ToxicPaddy · 23-02-2015 10:45PM

Most of Ireland is on its knees, suffering, a massive brain drain, no investment and no jobs. Dublin, Cork and Galway will always do well as they have long established companies and large employers who have invested heavily in their setups there and won't be going anywhere fast.

The funny thing is that some companies in Dublin are struggling to recruit at the moment because of the huge emigration and skills lost over the past few years. They are starting to import workers now.

A lot of Irish people need to realise that the days of manufacturing and property development are essentially over. If they don't upskill, they may as well accept their fate of long term employment. It's not a nice scenario to face but unfortunately the financial, pharma and technology sectors are the only growth areas I can see for the next 10 years.

It's just not viable to manufacture here when you can do it in eastern European countries for a fraction of the cost. The property market is essentially dead outside of the big cities and rural Ireland is going to be relying on small businesses and tourism.

The usual propaganda is always being spouted by every government about how well the country is doing but you'd have to be blind not to cop whats happening or not happening outside the big cities.

KingBrian2 · 23-02-2015 10:52PM

ToxicPaddy wrote: »

Most of Ireland is on its knees, suffering, a massive brain drain, no investment and no jobs. Dublin, Cork and Galway will always do well as they have long established companies and large employers who have invested heavily in their setups there and won't be going anywhere fast.

The funny thing is that some companies in Dublin are struggling to recruit at the moment because of the huge emigration and skills lost over the past few years. They are starting to import workers now.

A lot of Irish people need to realise that the days of manufacturing and property development are essentially over. If they don't upskill, they may as well accept their fate of long term employment. It's not a nice scenario to face but unfortunately the financial, pharma and technology sectors are the only growth areas I can see for the next 10 years.

It's just not viable to manufacture here when you can do it in eastern European countries for a fraction of the cost. The property market is essentially dead outside of the big cities and rural Ireland is going to be relying on small businesses and tourism.

The usual propaganda is always being spouted by every government about how well the country is doing but you'd have to be blind not to cop whats happening or not happening outside the big cities.

Just to be accurate and that is the buzz word here but the government is not saying the country is doing well. They are saying it has improved which it has and it will recover based on the current economic data available, now that could change should they decide to ease up on austere policies. The real issue is long term sustainable growth as opposed to short term populist measures that appease the anti € lot. We will see if that is deliverable.

The One Doctor · 23-02-2015 10:54PM

6541 wrote: »

There are zero jobs.

I just got a permanent civil service job. Seek and ye shall find. Eventually.

RecordStraight · 23-02-2015 10:58PM

ToxicPaddy wrote: »

The usual propaganda is always being spouted by every government about how well the country is doing but you'd have to be blind not to cop whats happening or not happening outside the big cities.

What is the government supposed to do? Apple don't want a European headquarters in Longford Town, and the people of towns like Longford don't seem to want to start companies like Apple. So do you have a proposal?

We know the SF/AAA proposal - tax the rich, burn the bondholders, jail the bankers. Not sure how any of those would help either...

I am convinced that Ireland is in Serious trouble

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