Cheltenham Festival 2015

ste2010 · 21-02-2015 07:41AM

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Sorry i was being sarcastic. Just wanted to highlight how shockingly poor value they all are. I'm not one for laying horses but this has me thinking i should at least start trading them. Going to setup an account specifically for this tomorrow. GL

I don't see anything wrong with that accumulator. If bet365 offer BOG then your away with worry. As the lads mentioned about Douvan being a machine and though he looks one my main concern would be his experience. Most supreme winners have 4 or 5 runs under their belt across disciplines and experience in large fields. Given how the complexion of this race is shaping up it wouldn't surprise me if the field is small meaning the trend is probably irrelevant. Shaneshill has the expereince and despite what people are saying I think it's a smart move bringing him back to 2m as I don't believe he'd have a chance in the Neptune where nicholls canyon would. Shaneshill isnt an out and out stayer but has a decent engine. One race against tell us more or no more heroes (can't remember) and everyone doesn't rate him anymore. You have to be prepared to forgive horses for one blip on the course. Look at Vautour ! I think 14-1 is available for shaneshill (I've him backed at 16's) and backing EW at those prices would be very attractive to anyone given he'll probably be 7-1 when he's tipped up by others and people realise the clearer picture once the final decs are in. Way more attractive than the prices of the other 2. I do like L'ami Serge also

HarshOstrich · 21-02-2015 08:27AM

Shemale wrote: »

TNO doesn't have the tactical speed to win the Champion and his form this year is far worse than last year. It's a match Jezki V Faugheen, playing Jezki myself.

We can only wait and see but I think it's definitely not a two horse race.
TNO will be bang there and the way hurricane fly has been this year it wouldn't surprise me if he got into the mix.its all about the horse on the day.

If ruby did choose hurricane fly to ride would that put people off faugheen.
I think this is what he will do as it's the potential for a much more satisfying win.
Think about it if he won on HF it would be one of the best moments in his career, where as with faugheen he is expected to win and win well.
If he can see hurricane fly beating faugheen in his own head then I'm sure he would prefer that ride

Backstreet Moyes · 21-02-2015 09:22AM

ste2010 wrote: »

I don't see anything wrong with that accumulator. If bet365 offer BOG then your away with worry. As the lads mentioned about Douvan being a machine and though he looks one my main concern would be his experience. Most supreme winners have 4 or 5 runs under their belt across disciplines and experience in large fields. Given how the complexion of this race is shaping up it wouldn't surprise me if the field is small meaning the trend is probably irrelevant. Shaneshill has the expereince and despite what people are saying I think it's a smart move bringing him back to 2m as I don't believe he'd have a chance in the Neptune where nicholls canyon would. Shaneshill isnt an out and out stayer but has a decent engine. One race against tell us more or no more heroes (can't remember) and everyone doesn't rate him anymore. You have to be prepared to forgive horses for one blip on the course. Look at Vautour ! I think 14-1 is available for shaneshill (I've him backed at 16's) and backing EW at those prices would be very attractive to anyone given he'll probably be 7-1 when he's tipped up by others and people realise the clearer picture once the final decs are in. Way more attractive than the prices of the other 2. I do like L'ami Serge also

I think their is a bit of value on Mullins runners NRNB. They will shorten once they go for a race but you can back them now and get your money back if they go elsewhere.

Meath Centre Forward · 21-02-2015 09:31AM

Shemale wrote: »

TNO doesn't have the tactical speed to win the Champion and his form this year is far worse than last year. It's a match Jezki V Faugheen, playing Jezki myself.

I can't say this belief is wrong but I can say it is based entirely on The New One's effort in last year's race where he encountered a certain amount of bad luck. As I said earlier in thread, he wasn't found wanting for speed in the Christmas Hurdle.

Also not sure what part of his form is worse than last year. He's won twice as many races this season two of which he also won last season. Maybe you have a different reading of it?

But to elaborate The New One in his most recent race beat the improving Bertimont (149) 2.5L giving him 8lbs. So let's say approx it was approx 161 rated performance. Jezki in his most recent race finished 4L behind Arctic Fire (162) so approx a 158 rated performance. Anyway the long and the short of it is both would look to me to be similarly matched and both should improve for better ground and a return to Cheltenham.

Faugheen is the conundrum though. I wish there was something about him that could give you the confidence to be negative about his chances but he's unbeaten, he comes here a fresh horse and he has looked so impressive to-date albeit this will be by far his hardest task to-date. Through Purple Bay and Bertimont, he is very closely matched with The New One. Although there is a danger in looking at the formbook and reading it too literally.

Schecter01 · 21-02-2015 09:32AM

Not Long to go

Rhinestone Cowboy · 21-02-2015 10:00AM

Thank fook NRNB is here

Doing my head in.

jimjamcos · 21-02-2015 10:13AM

Looks like MOT has a live chance of making World Hurdle now. God bless Jonjo, JP and their magic hay!

zpehtsfd · 21-02-2015 11:12AM

ste2010 wrote: »

I don't see anything wrong with that accumulator.

Well that's what makes a market cause i see everything wrong with it from a value perspective. They all have question marks hanging over them.

Douvan - Never run in better then soft going or gone left-handed
Annie Power - Hasn't been seen this season. Not every mare is like Quevega who clearly didn't need a prep run
UDS - A firecracker of a horse. Never been to Cheltenham and never run on ground with Good in the description.
Faugheen - Hasn't run against any of the CH market leaders yet.

I just setup my trading account so now waiting for the Preview Nights - where every superlative will be used to describe the 4 above - to finish before i lump on the lay side.

ste2010 wrote: »

I think 14-1 is available for shaneshill (I've him backed at 16's) and backing EW at those prices would be very attractive to anyone given he'll probably be 7-1 when he's tipped up by others and people realise the clearer picture once the final decs are in.

Not that's a value bet. GL

jimjamcos · 21-02-2015 11:55AM

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Well that's what makes a market cause i see everything wrong with it from a value perspective. They all have question marks hanging over them.

Douvan - Never run in better then soft going or gone left-handed
Annie Power - Hasn't been seen this season. Not every mare is like Quevega who clearly didn't need a prep run
UDS - A firecracker of a horse. Never been to Cheltenham and never run on ground with Good in the description.
Faugheen - Hasn't run against any of the CH market leaders yet.

I just setup my trading account so now waiting for the Preview Nights - where every superlative will be used to describe the 4 above - to finish before i lump on the lay side.

Not that's a value bet. GL

Douvan- Fair enough, he's a bit to prove yet

UDS - he's an athletic beast and doesn't have the action of horse that needs soft. Only reason he's never ran on better is Willie avoiding the big Spring festivals with him for convenience, nothing to do with ground. He's proven that he can travel overseas too. He wins.

Faugheen - Fair enough, he hasn't beaten much in terms of Gr1 animals but sometimes, like UDS, you've just got to trust the visual impression, times and distance he's beaten decent yardsticks by with utter ease. The fact they've purposely avoided Hurricane Fly is a massive positive IMO, same as I said with UDS last year, they know he's better than The Fly. He wins.

Annie Power - she has over a stone in hand of the field, is proven at track and in all likelihood, The Mares is her optimum distance. A horse coming back of a break isn't the negative it used to be, the race lacks real depth, Quinn's horse's form behind Irving in Fighting Fifth doesn't look as strong now and Annie is clearly well ahead of Glens Melody. She only runs if fit and very hard to see them cope with her pace. She wins.

Wouldn't back Douvan but the other three are extremely solid favs IMO and fair enough if you don't want to back them, but I believe you'd be crazy to lay them.

dickenson famous5 · 21-02-2015 12:58PM

Think your correct will be right in the firing line shaneshill and a good chance

zpehtsfd · 21-02-2015 02:09PM

jimjamcos wrote: »

Wouldn't back Douvan but the other three are extremely solid favs IMO and fair enough if you don't want to back them, but I believe you'd be crazy to lay them.

Fair enough. Can't afford to hold much liability so will just look to trade out on raceday. GL.

jimjamcos · 21-02-2015 03:53PM

SDG 5/2 fav with Boyles now, lol. Of all the bookmakers, they have to be the most ridiculous when it comes to cutting horses

Peintre Celebre · 21-02-2015 04:34PM

She male I've never seen anyone with a more unrational dislike for a horse. Any excuse not to give him credit

Shemale · 21-02-2015 05:49PM

Meath Centre Forward wrote: »

I can't say this belief is wrong but I can say it is based entirely on The New One's effort in last year's race where he encountered a certain amount of bad luck. As I said earlier in thread, he wasn't found wanting for speed in the Christmas Hurdle.

Also not sure what part of his form is worse than last year. He's won twice as many races this season two of which he also won last season. Maybe you have a different reading of it?

But to elaborate The New One in his most recent race beat the improving Bertimont (149) 2.5L giving him 8lbs. So let's say approx it was approx 161 rated performance. Jezki in his most recent race finished 4L behind Arctic Fire (162) so approx a 158 rated performance. Anyway the long and the short of it is both would look to me to be similarly matched and both should improve for better ground and a return to Cheltenham.

Faugheen is the conundrum though. I wish there was something about him that could give you the confidence to be negative about his chances but he's unbeaten, he comes here a fresh horse and he has looked so impressive to-date albeit this will be by far his hardest task to-date. Through Purple Bay and Bertimont, he is very closely matched with The New One. Although there is a danger in looking at the formbook and reading it too literally.

A lot is made of the mistake, he lost about 3 lengths with well over a mile to race.

My view is he was right with them and when Captain Cee Bee turned the screw TNO got dropped off the back and when Jezki and MTOY starting racing Hurricane Fly got dropped.

TNO laboured very hard to beat Bertimont, NTD always has him right for his races and he doesn't seem to mind any type of ground, he just hasn't been as imperious this season as he had been last season.

Jezki on the other hand is trained for the day, is a Spring horse and has similar form to last year.

Faugheens form is a lot better than TNO, he has beaten the opposition in the manner of a Champion Hurdler

Shemale · 21-02-2015 05:53PM

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

She male I've never seen anyone with a more unrational dislike for a horse. Any excuse not to give him credit

The New One is a very good horse, I just don't think he is quick enough to win a Champion

I would understand if you were talking about SDG?

sting60 · 21-02-2015 07:15PM

I have tried to stay away ( without posting) re these shocking doubles/trebles bookies are offering for march but its like pushers offering heroine to addicts outside methadone clinics.

Gringo180 · 21-02-2015 07:36PM

How good was De Grugy today. Thinking twice now about my Sprinter Sacre bet.

Morleystreet · 21-02-2015 07:45PM

deccy15 wrote: »

Up for Review for me. Was very impressive in what usually turns out to be a quite good bumper. Silver Concorde won same race last year!!

Like up for review also. Would you be backing him now for Cheltenham bumper, given running in naas tomorrow. If he won there wonder would he shorten up much for Cheltenham.

NaiveMelodies · 21-02-2015 07:49PM

Gringo180 wrote: »

How good was De Grugy today. Thinking twice now about my Sprinter Sacre bet.

No bet but delighted that the race is looking stronger now.

My Mr Mole at 33s not too likely a winner now though!

BumperD · 21-02-2015 07:52PM

Morleystreet wrote: »

Like up for review also. Would you be backing him now for Cheltenham bumper, given running in naas tomorrow. If he won there wonder would he shorten up much for Cheltenham.

His action suggests a liking softer ground if leopardstown run is anything to go by, or am I wrong? I would question how well he will fair on good ground at Cheltenham if that's the case

Meath Centre Forward · 21-02-2015 10:32PM

Shemale wrote: »

A lot is made of the mistake, he lost about 3 lengths with well over a mile to race.

My view is he was right with them and when Captain Cee Bee turned the screw TNO got dropped off the back and when Jezki and MTOY starting racing Hurricane Fly got dropped.

TNO laboured very hard to beat Bertimont, NTD always has him right for his races and he doesn't seem to mind any type of ground, he just hasn't been as imperious this season as he had been last season.

Jezki on the other hand is trained for the day, is a Spring horse and has similar form to last year.

Faugheens form is a lot better than TNO, he has beaten the opposition in the manner of a Champion Hurdler

I think we'll have to agree to disagree but just to refute some of your points .... what part of Faugheen's form is better than The New One.

The New One beat Bertimont 2.5L giving him 8lbs ... The New One approx 10.5 lengths superior to Bertimont. Faugheen beat Purple Bay 8L off level weights...Faugheen approx 8L superior to Purple Bay. Purple Bay beat Bertimont 4L getting 1lb .... approx 3 lengths superior to Bertimont.

The sum total of this form equates to Faugheen being 0.5L better than The New One... hardly a whole lot. Of course if predicting the Champion Hurdle was as easy, it'd be great ... but when you say Faugheen's FORM is better The New One, I'd like to see evidence !

As regards The New One being laboured in beating Bertimont he probably was. But he got the job done in unfavourable conditions against a very smart horse. People underestimate the improvement Skelton has got out of Bertimont. The distances to the third and fourth were 7L and 5L which give a stronger idea of the form. The New One was also comfortably in control by the end of the race.

Of course you could be right....The New One hasn't got enough speed .... but the evidence for this is weak to say the least. He was hampered in the process losing by your admission 3L - a bigger distance by which he was beat not to mention the affect it had on his rhythm ... he went from a nice position on the rail to chasing a fast pace with no cover and managed to go from jumping the first couple nicely to skying the remainder! When they did quicken towards the second last his jockey was very slow to ask for a response and when he did, the horse responded finishing faster than all else. My conclusion is he was the best horse in the race and would have won.

Whether he's the best horse this year remains to be seen. He has a serious challenge on his hands but has done everything expected of him since.

coopdog85 · 21-02-2015 11:35PM

Meath Centre Forward wrote: »

I think we'll have to agree to disagree but just to refute some of your points .... what part of Faugheen's form is better than The New One.

The New One beat Bertimont 2.5L giving him 8lbs ... The New One approx 10.5 lengths superior to Bertimont. Faugheen beat Purple Bay 8L off level weights...Faugheen approx 8L superior to Purple Bay. Purple Bay beat Bertimont 4L getting 1lb .... approx 3 lengths superior to Bertimont.

The sum total of this form equates to Faugheen being 0.5L better than The New One... hardly a whole lot. Of course if predicting the Champion Hurdle was as easy, it'd be great ... but when you say Faugheen's FORM is better The New One, I'd like to see evidence !

As regards The New One being laboured in beating Bertimont he probably was. But he got the job done in unfavourable conditions against a very smart horse. People underestimate the improvement Skelton has got out of Bertimont. The distances to the third and fourth were 7L and 5L which give a stronger idea of the form. The New One was also comfortably in control by the end of the race.

Of course you could be right....The New One hasn't got enough speed .... but the evidence for this is weak to say the least. He was hampered in the process losing by your admission 3L - a bigger distance by which he was beat not to mention the affect it had on his rhythm ... he went from a nice position on the rail to chasing a fast pace with no cover and managed to go from jumping the first couple nicely to skying the remainder! When they did quicken towards the second last his jockey was very slow to ask for a response and when he did, the horse responded finishing faster than all else. My conclusion is he was the best horse in the race and would have won.

Whether he's the best horse this year remains to be seen. He has a serious challenge on his hands but has done everything expected of him since.

The argument that TNO was an unlucky loser last year is rubbish. He was caught for toe having been upsides Jezki, MTOY & Hurricane Fly 3 out. Those 3 kicked & TNO couldn't & beside, sam t.d was hoping the front 3 would tire & he would come with a late run. To say he would have won only for being hampered by our Conor is rubbish. Best horse won on the day, setting the course record, & will win the champion hurdle again this year.

Meath Centre Forward · 21-02-2015 11:45PM

My argument is there if you want to refute the points in it young man ! Rubbish .... Hmmm .... Let's hear your case.

I'm not going to repeat myself but I don't take you too seriously if you're going to call my post rubbish and not explain yourself !!

Muscles2006 · 22-02-2015 12:03AM

Shemale wrote: »

A lot is made of the mistake, he lost about 3 lengths with well over a mile to race.

My view is he was right with them and when Captain Cee Bee turned the screw TNO got dropped off the back and when Jezki and MTOY starting racing Hurricane Fly got dropped.

TNO laboured very hard to beat Bertimont, NTD always has him right for his races and he doesn't seem to mind any type of ground, he just hasn't been as imperious this season as he had been last season.

Jezki on the other hand is trained for the day, is a Spring horse and has similar form to last year.

Faugheens form is a lot better than TNO, he has beaten the opposition in the manner of a Champion Hurdler

He lost a lot more than 3 lengths, have a look at the race again. He jumped the hurdle about half a length behind Jezki and came away from it 5 to 6 lengths behind him. And I think the most striking thing about his performance is that he managed to pull 5 lengths on Hurricane Fly after he jumped the last after being hampered, that was astonishing.

For what it's worth I also reckon Faugheen will win the race but i think TNO is def the biggest threat.

mulbot · 22-02-2015 03:14AM

coopdog85 wrote: »

The argument that TNO was an unlucky loser last year is rubbish. He was caught for toe having been upsides Jezki, MTOY & Hurricane Fly 3 out. Those 3 kicked & TNO couldn't & beside, sam t.d was hoping the front 3 would tire & he would come with a late run. To say he would have won only for being hampered by our Conor is rubbish. Best horse won on the day, setting the course record, & will win the champion hurdle again this year.

If you look at the sectionals you will see that the times aren't significant enough to say they "kicked on" and that he couldn't keep up. He was badly hampered by OC and by looking at his race position before he was hampered and the times he posted in the next two sectionals after it,would suggest that if the original position had been held he prob would have been the winner

Shemale · 22-02-2015 12:48PM

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

My Mr Mole at 33s not too likely a winner now though!

I think that is a cracking bet, he had plenty left the last day.

Shemale · 22-02-2015 01:20PM

Muscles2006 wrote: »

He lost a lot more than 3 lengths, have a look at the race again. He jumped the hurdle about half a length behind Jezki and came away from it 5 to 6 lengths behind him. And I think the most striking thing about his performance is that he managed to pull 5 lengths on Hurricane Fly after he jumped the last after being hampered, that was astonishing.

For what it's worth I also reckon Faugheen will win the race but i think TNO is def the biggest threat.

Being hampered didn't cost him, he was right with them at the third last, after the second last Sam was the most animated of the front 5 jockeys. He got dropped by a 154 rated 13 year old who had never ran in a Champion Hurdle as he wasn't good enough.

Good luck to you if you back him but I really can't see him win it barring Jezki and Faugheen coming to grief (which nobody wants to see)

Shemale · 22-02-2015 01:22PM

In case you haven't heard/ seen Bet 365 are NRNB and BOG all races, let the games begin!!

handsfree2 · 22-02-2015 01:23PM

Shemale wrote: »

Being hampered didn't cost him, he was right with them at the third last, after the second last Sam was the most animated of the front 5 jockeys. He got dropped by a 154 rated 13 year old who had never ran in a Champion Hurdle as he wasn't good enough.

Good luck to you if you back him but I really can't see him win it barring Jezki and Faugheen coming to grief (which nobody wants to see)

I agree with your analysis but conditions and tactics on the day will dictate whether or not he'll be left stranded at the top of the hill. It's impossible to say for sure that it'll happen again.

I'll be on jezki for the record.

Meath Centre Forward · 22-02-2015 01:37PM

Shemale wrote: »

Being hampered didn't cost him, he was right with them at the third last, after the second last Sam was the most animated of the front 5 jockeys. He got dropped by a 154 rated 13 year old who had never ran in a Champion Hurdle as he wasn't good enough.

Good luck to you if you back him but I really can't see him win it barring Jezki and Faugheen coming to grief (which nobody wants to see)

If Jezki had suffered the same bad luck as The New One would Jezki have won?

The New One has not got enough credit for getting involved at the finish. Had he folded after being hampered, he'd still be an unknown and there'd be none of this "outpaced" talk!

Cheltenham Festival 2015

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