Red C Poll

Godge · 17-02-2015 11:08PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

To refer back to some data that I posted based on the previous polls - Thanks to OscarBravo for the chart..

FG tend to get more votes than their OP levels by a few points , whereas SF tend to poll significantly lower that OP results...

@26% OP results , SF are probably looking at something like 17/18% of the seats/votes so something around 26/27 seats..

FG will be close to double that figure... at 25% OP poll based on the previous profile FG would be looking at ~45 seats..

FG will be the largest party after the next election and by some margin....Labour ~7-8% will get about 15 seats so combined they'll be 60 seats or so..

SF/FF will only have 45-50 seats combined...

Rightwing wrote: »

May go in as equal partners I'd imagine.

Rightwing wrote: »

Well the likelihood is that combination. The SF aspect is novelty speculation.

Quin_Dub wrote: »

It's certainly a possibility..

As I see it there are 3 possibilites
FG/Lab + others minority Government

FG/FF/Lab majority Government

Hung Dail with a repeat vote in late summer

Can't see any other scenario really happening...

Quin_Dub wrote: »

FG+FF combined will likely have enough for a slim majority (44% combined in Red C poll would give them just a little over 50% of the seats) so they might need Labour to ensure a solid majority..

Also - I think that FF certainly would be more open to coalition if there was a Jnr Junior partner that could be the fall guy instead of them....

So, why have a 1 or 2 seat government majority when you could have closer to 10/12 with Labour in tow whilst still keeping Labour as the sacrificial lambs for the next time around...?

http://adriankavanaghelections.org/2015/02/14/sinn-fein-feeling-the-love-on-valentines-day-constituency-level-analysis-of-the-sunday-independent-millward-brown-opinion-poll-15th-february-2015/#more-7859

I don't always agree with Adrian Kavanagh's analysis but as always it makes at the very least a good point to start a debate from.

On the Sindo poll, he has the following:

FG - 46
SF - 45
FF - 34
Ind - 33
Lab - 1

He is one out with 159 instead of 158, still it means SF/FF/Ind is a real possibility if those poll results were to be replicated.

It seems more and more that the choice in the next election will be a government led by FG or a government led by SF.

Zubeneschamali · 17-02-2015 11:15PM

Godge wrote: »

On the Sindo poll, he has the following:

FG - 46
SF - 45

Seats? He's having a laugh.

Gerry Adams himself has said they cannot make best use of a 26% vote share. They don't have enough candidates, they don't have the organization in every constituency, and they don't get any transfers from FG, Labour or FF supporters.

If they go in equal at 26%, FG will be better than 50-40 ahead, maybe 55-35.

Quin_Dub · 17-02-2015 11:43PM

Godge wrote: »

http://adriankavanaghelections.org/2015/02/14/sinn-fein-feeling-the-love-on-valentines-day-constituency-level-analysis-of-the-sunday-independent-millward-brown-opinion-poll-15th-february-2015/#more-7859

I don't always agree with Adrian Kavanagh's analysis but as always it makes at the very least a good point to start a debate from.

On the Sindo poll, he has the following:

FG - 46
SF - 45
FF - 34
Ind - 33
Lab - 1

He is one out with 159 instead of 158, still it means SF/FF/Ind is a real possibility if those poll results were to be replicated.

It seems more and more that the choice in the next election will be a government led by FG or a government led by SF.

Not a chance in hell that SF will get 45 seats..

They'd need to be around 40% in the Opinion polls to even have a chance of that level of seats..

Plus , that would mean taking 2 seats in quite a few 4 seaters - Something that they've never done before..With their transfer "challenges" they'd need to be pulling down 45% plus of 1st preference votes to get a 2nd seat anywhere... Again , not going to happen...

Gerry Adams was one of only 2 SF candidates to get reach the quota on 1st preferences ,along with Caomhin O'Caolain last time out - both only just exceeded the quota...

SF will not break 30 seats..

RandomName2 · 18-02-2015 12:40AM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Not a chance in hell that SF will get 45 seats..

They'd need to be around 40% in the Opinion polls to even have a chance of that level of seats..

Plus , that would mean taking 2 seats in quite a few 4 seaters - Something that they've never done before..With their transfer "challenges" they'd need to be pulling down 45% plus of 1st preference votes to get a 2nd seat anywhere... Again , not going to happen...

Gerry Adams was one of only 2 SF candidates to get reach the quota on 1st preferences ,along with Caomhin O'Caolain last time out - both only just exceeded the quota...

SF will not break 30 seats..

FG is desperately campaigning on behalf of SF at the moment (thank God there isn't a devisive EU referendum in the mix because you know what line the government would go with). However, one has to factor in the fact that as a protest-vote, more moderate left wing groups, and of course independents, will siphon off a lot of ballots (as was witnessed in the by-elections).

Permabear · 18-02-2015 01:39AM

This post has been deleted.

Chips Lovell · 18-02-2015 01:24PM

golfball37 wrote: »

SF have said PS wages will be capped at 100k was my understanding. A step I would certainly agree with. if these senior civil servants are so good let them get their wage in the private sector.

They already finding positions elsewhere. There's plenty of examples of positions paying above €100k remaining unfilled because suitable candidates aren't applying.

EDIT: Permabear beat me to it.

Rightwing · 18-02-2015 01:39PM

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

They already finding positions elsewhere. There's plenty of examples of positions paying above €100k remaining unfilled because suitable candidates aren't applying.

EDIT: Permabear beat me to it.

I think SF are probably looking at principals in schools, civil service etc.

No one in their right mind would question a consultant entitled to earn over €100K. However, at the moment they are milking it both off the private and simultaneously from the public.

Chips Lovell · 18-02-2015 01:48PM

Rightwing wrote: »

I think SF are probably looking at principals in schools, civil service etc.

No one in their right mind would question a consultant entitled to earn over €100K. However, at the moment they are milking it both off the private and simultaneously from the public.

They made no such distinction. Indeed, they specifically mentioned they wanted to cut consultants pay:

Reduce consultants’ pay by 15% on income between €150,000 and €200,000; and 30% on income of over €200,000 per annum: saves €9 million

Permabear · 18-02-2015 02:14PM

This post has been deleted.

Rightwing · 18-02-2015 02:51PM

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

They made no such distinction. Indeed, they specifically mentioned they wanted to cut consultants pay:

Well consultants shouldn't be seen to be untouchable.

PS salaries are out of control. We need look no further than this for proof:

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/incoming-lord-mayor-defends-110k-salary-234590.html
The incoming lord mayor of Cork has defended the office’s €110,000 salary describing it as a “reflection of the importance of the role”.
Catherine Clancy, Labour, was reacting to criticism from Sinn Féin which said the city cannot afford what it described as one of the highest paid political jobs in Europe.

--
I think I'll take SF's side on this one.

Chips Lovell · 18-02-2015 02:55PM

Nobody should be be untouchable, but if you advertise a €100K+ job and nobody applies, it makes little sense to claim the salary should be lower.

Claiming salaries should be capped at certain levels is such a wrong-headed approach. You either pay what it takes to fill the positions or accept that you'll have to do without those people.

Rightwing · 18-02-2015 02:59PM

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

Nobody should be be untouchable, but if you advertise a €100K+ job and nobody applies, it makes little sense to claim the salary should be lower.

Claiming salaries should be capped at certain levels is such a wrong-headed approach. You either pay what it takes to fill the positions or accept that you'll have to do without those people.

I agree, but there will be very instances of this (health & financial excluded).

Rightwing · 18-02-2015 03:17PM

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/taoiseach-accused-of-creating-golden-circle-over-pay-hikes-for-government-advisors-31002593.html

This is the area where SF are well ahead of the established parties.

Speaking in the Dail, Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams asked the Taoiseach how he could condone cuts to payments for lone parents while special advisors are getting pay hikes.
“There is no austerity for your Government. You have created a culture of privilege, a golden circle that rivals the old Fianna Fail one, and, meanwhile, you impose cuts on frontline staff and destroy public services,” Mr Adams said

Chips Lovell · 18-02-2015 03:27PM

In the absence of explanations of why those salaries were approved, we've no way of knowing whether they were required or not. As far as I can see, the documents released only really get into details on one case:

It's also emerged that Communications Minister Alex White wrote to Mr Howlin's officials seeking to place his special adviser Bernard Harbor on a scale higher than the standard scale for principal officers.

"While I am aware that advisers are placed on the principal officer standard scale, I am requesting that in view of Mr Harbor's salary with his existing employer, he could be placed at the top end of the scale," Mr White wrote. The request was later sanctioned

Idbatterim · 18-02-2015 03:53PM

Also - I think that FF certainly would be more open to coalition if there was a Jnr Junior partner that could be the fall guy instead of them....

So, why have a 1 or 2 seat government majority when you could have closer to 10/12 with Labour in tow whilst still keeping Labour as the sacrificial lambs for the next time around...?

good points and I see very little difference between Labour and FF, both in love with the social partners, consensus, money thrown at your or taken away, regardless of merit, anti employment etc, they are cut from the same cloth...

hatrickpatrick · 18-02-2015 06:13PM

When is the next Red C poll due in fact? Must be soon enough? Next weekend?

alaimacerc · 18-02-2015 09:17PM

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Or to be precise, to only take that much from their own Dáil salaries. Pretty sure that book deals, etc, aren't included in this particular party diktat!

alaimacerc · 18-02-2015 09:22PM

Idbatterim wrote: »

good points and I see very little difference between Labour and FF, both in love with the social partners, consensus, money thrown at your or taken away, regardless of merit, anti employment etc, they are cut from the same cloth...

I find Olivia O'Leary's analysis (RTE Drivetime political diary yesterday) more persuasive. To wit: SF aren't socialists, they're a populist nationalist party. Their "growth path" is to seek replace FF -- the other such party. Of course, that's not going to encourage either of those two to be too keen to go into coalition with each other...

oscarBravo · 18-02-2015 10:52PM

alaimacerc wrote: »

Or to be precise, to only take that much from their own Dáil salaries.

...and donate the rest to the party. I'm still not clear on how such a large donation from an individual to a political party is allowed under SIPO rules.

alaimacerc · 19-02-2015 12:06AM

oscarBravo wrote: »

...and donate the rest to the party. I'm still not clear on how such a large donation from an individual to a political party is allowed under SIPO rules.

Yes, I wasn't disputing that part -- implied from the context, I felt!

My understanding is that this is "worked" as an exception to the usual per-person donation rules. Because Reasons.

the groutch · 19-02-2015 01:45AM

Rightwing wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/taoiseach-accused-of-creating-golden-circle-over-pay-hikes-for-government-advisors-31002593.html

Mr Kenny also said there were questions over how Sinn Fein raised funds to run the party.

cheap digs like that which have nothing to do with the question asked will do Enda & FG no favours.

Good loser · 19-02-2015 02:21AM

conorh91 wrote: »

At present there are hospital consultants earning €65k after taxes and levies. It works out at around €100k gross pay.

Plenty of CEOs earn less than €100k. A few years ago, I worked for a CEO who took no wage at all. Although that practice has become far less common today, CEOs are the most pragmatic people in business.

Why shouldn't public servants face up to responsible pragmatism in a similar vein?

Capping public-sector pay is no panacea, but it is one of the least-stupid SF policies.

As far as I know this is no longer one of SF's policies.

alaimacerc · 19-02-2015 02:38AM

conorh91 wrote: »

Capping public-sector pay is no panacea, but it is one of the least-stupid SF policies.

Good loser wrote: »

As far as I know this is no longer one of SF's policies.

Perhaps SF have introduced a stupidity cap on their policies? (Cleverness cap? Lack-of-stupidity cap? Stupidity cup?)

Zubeneschamali · 19-02-2015 09:56AM

Good loser wrote: »

As far as I know this is no longer one of SF's policies.

This week.

Next week, who knows? A mission to Mars?

Quin_Dub · 19-02-2015 01:28PM

The infighting begins..

Richard Boyd Barrett says Sinn Féin has helped bring about unity by austerity

RBB starts getting the digs in early as he knows he'll have a fight on his hands vs. SF to keep his seat..

I reckon that quite a number of the seats that SF potentially will pick up in the GE will come from the hard left parties and independents..

R B-B , Copinger , Murphy and a few others are seriously at risk from SF..

golfball37 · 19-02-2015 01:38PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

...and donate the rest to the party. I'm still not clear on how such a large donation from an individual to a political party is allowed under SIPO rules.

Its officially set aside for whatever constituency the individual resides in.
It doesn't go the party as far as SIPO is concerned.

oscarBravo · 19-02-2015 02:01PM

golfball37 wrote: »

Its officially set aside for whatever constituency the individual resides in.

Set aside for the constituency, or set aside for the SF constituency organisation?

It doesn't go the party as far as SIPO is concerned.

Interesting. I wonder if a random third party decided to give (say) a FF constituency organisation a hundred grand, would SIPO feel the same way about it?

alaimacerc · 19-02-2015 04:02PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

Set aside for the constituency, or set aside for the SF constituency organisation?

Apparently it's paid directly to (SF) constituency staff.

Rightwing · 19-02-2015 07:16PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

Set aside for the constituency, or set aside for the SF constituency organisation? Interesting. I wonder if a random third party decided to give (say) a FF constituency organisation a hundred grand, would SIPO feel the same way about it?

That's not a good comparison.

I would imagine any of the FF members are free to give their salary to the cause. Can't see too many doing it though.

michael999999 · 19-02-2015 07:49PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

Set aside for the constituency, or set aside for the SF constituency organisation? Interesting. I wonder if a random third party decided to give (say) a FF constituency organisation a hundred grand, would SIPO feel the same way about it?

But Fianna fail weren't declaring the money they were getting, the bloody crooks!

How much did Fianna fail hero Bertie ahern say he won on the "horses"?

Red C Poll

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