Red C Poll

alaimacerc

maccored wrote: »

sure we know that from the past few governments .... i dont see the relevance to SF> In fact I dont go the for whole populist SF theory either. they arent populist considering they usually stick by what they promise.

Yes, "not populist because I like 'em". Very rigorous analysis there. Look at SF's last few budget submissions. They haven't even managed to "stick by what they promise" as long as time to make the next set of promises. Much less until actually implementing any of them. We might likewise go through SF's policy document flipflops, but to be fair not even SF supporters read those, much less expect anyone else to believe them.

Nodin

maccored wrote: »

afraid I left my magic ball at home so I cant fortell how the next election will pan out. obviously you really need to read my post a bit closer as all the data is there plain to see. the last line is one you might want to read - "I cant see SF getting that kind of numbers - but I also cant see them being junior partner to FF, FG or Labour"

t'would be suicide.

maccored

alaimacerc wrote: »

Ah, so furious handwaving it is, then.

"Please Lord, make SF popular, but not so popular they actually have to face any political decisions they might make any of their supporters uncomfortable."

"Please lord make this person stopped ranting

Yours
Maccored"

@Nodin - indeed it would. Adams actually made the point on newstalk this morning that they have no intention of going in as junior partners.

maccored

alaimacerc wrote: »

Yes, "not populist because I like 'em". Very rigorous analysis there. Look at SF's last few budget submissions. They haven't even managed to "stick by what they promise" as long as time to make the next set of promises. Much less until actually implementing any of them. We might likewise go through SF's policy document flipflops, but to be fair not even SF supporters read those, much less expect anyone else to believe them.

What powers of analysis you have. whats wrong with their budget submissions precisely. And which document 'flipflops' are you referring to?

realdanbreen

maccored wrote: »

"Please lord make this person stopped ranting

Yours
Maccored"

@Nodin - indeed it would. Adams actually made the point on newstalk this morning that they have no intention of going in as junior partners.

Well if Gerry Adams said that then it must be true.

CramCycle

realdanbreen wrote: »

Well if Gerry Adams said that then it must be true.

Its been said by Mary Lou in the past as well, while not a fan, have to agree with this decision. They won't go in as Junior partners as they would end up forcing the Dail to dissolve on the first serious issue where there view differs to the Senior member or losing the backbone of their support on the ground.

They are unlikely to make senior partners, which suits them as well, as with anyone who believes they will be on the opposition bench, its alot easier to say what your supporters have to hear without actually backing it up if any of them simply don't face upto the scrutiny of being implemented.

michael999999

CramCycle wrote: »

Its been said by Mary Lou in the past as well, while not a fan, have to agree with this decision. They won't go in as Junior partners as they would end up forcing the Dail to dissolve on the first serious issue where there view differs to the Senior member or losing the backbone of their support on the ground.

They are unlikely to make senior partners, which suits them as well, as with anyone who believes they will be on the opposition bench, its alot easier to say what your supporters have to hear without actually backing it up if any of them simply don't face upto the scrutiny of being implemented.

You mean just like what fine Gael and labour are doing now?

CramCycle

michael999999 wrote: »

You mean just like what fine Gael and labour are doing now?

Not sure what you mean. Fine Gael and Labour have stayed in government and reached workable, even if they were not amicable agreements to keep it going (for how long more, who knows).

I can't see Fine Gael going in as Junior partners to anyone who might make enough votes, but maybe I am basing that on too narrow a view, maybe they would but on their experience of being the bigger dog at the table, I just can't see it at the minute. Labour will always have too unless they grow considerably.

maccored

realdanbreen wrote: »

Well if Gerry Adams said that then it must be true.

as in opposition to your if gerry adams said it then he must be lying? common sense says it.

Zubeneschamali

maccored wrote: »

Adams actually made the point on newstalk this morning that they have no intention of going in as junior partners.

I believe he also made the point that Sinn Féin are not in a position to make full use of a 26% vote share - he said the party is still developing or something like that.

If FG and Sinn Fein get are equal first preference share in the polls going into the election, FG will get a lot more seats.

maccored

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I believe he also made the point that Sinn Féin are not in a position to make full use of a 26% vote share

... which is why i said in an earlier post that I doubt they'll get those kinds of numbers. I'd prefer if they stayed in opposition for another few years tbh. cant do them any harm.

FTA69

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

FG are already starting to argue that someone is going to have to keep an eye on SF if they get into government and are terrified at the prospect of a FF / SF government. Let's not forget that FG approached SF in 2007 to discuss the potential of forming a government together.

What? When did that happen?? I have absolutely no recollection of that happening and my memory is that Fine Gael categorically ruled out coalition between the two. Sinn Féin in 2007 were blatantly angling for a coalition with Fianna Fáil and very luckily for them, were rebuffed in favour of the Greens.

Similarly SF have been saying that Labour have been failing to blunt FG's 'right wing' policies and they could do better to protect the most vulnerable.

Sinn Féin also learned the lesson of the Greens and Labour and realised that entering coalition as a minority partner propping up austerity will lead to ruin. I know that Adams has a near fanatical desire to be in government in the north and south but from what I hear, the lessons of 2007 have been well learned. Muppets like McGuinness and his ilk would be likely to be enthusiastic with a power-at-all-costs approach but I can't see the party going for it. If they do ever go for coalition it will be on a "green agenda" with Fianna Fáil.

It will be a SF / FG government or a SF / Independent government. As support for the independents has started to fall as predicted I reckon the SF / FG option is most likely.

The Blueshirts would never go for it, there'd be uproar.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

listermint

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Independents may take rise, There is alot of anger out there at FG. Unless they get their house in order. i.e. ditch Enda and perhaps a few of the older like minded loons well then they will suffer.

A radical overhaul of that party would give them an instant fresh face.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

golfball37

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Just because the economy is growing now it still doesn't justify what happened here.
It was morally wrong to attach banking debt to the Irish tax payer and I hope this is still sung from the rooftops no matter how we are doing.

Godge

listermint wrote: »

Independents may take rise, There is alot of anger out there at FG. Unless they get their house in order. i.e. ditch Enda and perhaps a few of the older like minded loons well then they will suffer.

A radical overhaul of that party would give them an instant fresh face.

The anger is fading.

The poll at the weekend was interesting but it wasn't a RedC poll who have been doing the most polls recently. The less often a polling company takes a poll, the less able to spot trends.

The next RedC poll will tell a lot.

Godge

One thing on the weekend poll.

SF said they won't go in as junior partners.

SF/FF/Ind is possible based on the figures. Martin wouldn't go for that, but he won't be leader if those figures pan out. Third biggest party? So which future FF leader would be happy as junior partner to SF?

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

michael999999

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

But its not really difficult to be the fastest growing economy statistically, when our starting base is so low. And Europe is up the ****ter.

Banjo String

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

We've forgotten FG and FFs history ......

BOHtox

Anyone want to hazard a guess of what the seats outcome will be for each party based on them polls?

hatrickpatrick

Miserably disappointing poll for fans of independents. Can only hope that we recover significantly in the coming months. Anything is possible, as recent poll swings have shown.

I still hold out hope for a whipless government, but I'll admit that the prospect has dimmed slightly. Unlike those opposed, who don't tend to admit when their own parties are doing badly

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

By what mechanism, specifically, would it collapse?

alaimacerc

Godge wrote: »

So which future FF leader would be happy as junior partner to SF?

I can certainly imagine min-Dev fancying himself as a maxi-Tanaiste. Or maybe coming up with some piffle about a "rotating collective leadership"...

Phoebas

golfball37 wrote: »

Just because the economy is growing now it still doesn't justify what happened here.
It was morally wrong to attach banking debt to the Irish tax payer and I hope this is still sung from the rooftops no matter how we are doing.

Will SF be singing from the rooftops the fact that they voted for the blanket bank guarantee?

Banjo String

Phoebas wrote: »

Will SF be singing from the rooftops the fact that they voted for the blanket bank guarantee?

Based on cooked book figures. Which FG also Voted on.

FreudianSlippers

Banjo String wrote: »

Based on cooked book figures. Which FG also Voted on.

I don't think you'll find many that disagree that those people in Anglo who were responsible for the deceit should be prosecuted.

However, the government made a very difficult decision with the information available to them at the time with extreme pressure to make a quick decision. It turns out that decision wasn't entirely correct, but it wasn't far off - they should have insulated the healthier pillar banks with a guarantee and let Anglo burn.

Quin_Dub

oscarBravo wrote: »

I like visualising data.

BOHtox wrote: »

Anyone want to hazard a guess of what the seats outcome will be for each party based on them polls?

To refer back to some data that I posted based on the previous polls - Thanks to OscarBravo for the chart..

FG tend to get more votes than their OP levels by a few points , whereas SF tend to poll significantly lower that OP results...

@26% OP results , SF are probably looking at something like 17/18% of the seats/votes so something around 26/27 seats..

FG will be close to double that figure... at 25% OP poll based on the previous profile FG would be looking at ~45 seats..

FG will be the largest party after the next election and by some margin....Labour ~7-8% will get about 15 seats so combined they'll be 60 seats or so..

SF/FF will only have 45-50 seats combined...

Rightwing

Godge wrote: »

One thing on the weekend poll.

SF said they won't go in as junior partners.

SF/FF/Ind is possible based on the figures. Martin wouldn't go for that, but he won't be leader if those figures pan out. Third biggest party? So which future FF leader would be happy as junior partner to SF?

May go in as equal partners I'd imagine.

FreudianSlippers

I think it depends on how poorly Labour do, but I think it'd be crazy to rule out FG/FF and maybe Labour.