Cheltenham Festival 2015

EICVD · 15-02-2015 03:43PM

I'm in the Michael Flips camp too. Surprised he didn't have a spin around the x-country course at Punchestown a few weeks ago.

posturingpat · 15-02-2015 03:51PM

EICVD wrote: »

I'm in the Michael Flips camp too. Surprised he didn't have a spin around the x-country course at Punchestown a few weeks ago.

Like quantitativeeasing

Now that was a spin

EICVD · 15-02-2015 03:54PM

posturingpat wrote: »

Like quantitativeeasing Now that was a spin

Don't remind me

posturingpat · 15-02-2015 04:12PM

Tidy performance by Very wood,7/1 just before the off :eek: No sign of Meade yet for an interview to tell us where he goes though.

Jon Stark · 15-02-2015 04:14PM

Mgoraf wrote: »

Much improved run for Briar Hill there, I think he'd have beaten Dedigout if we jumped the last.

Dedigout looked tough in front and I think that's why Ruby made a hames of it, too eager to catch the leader and went too heavy into the jump.

oPATCHo · 15-02-2015 06:24PM

posturingpat wrote: »

Tidy performance by Very wood,7/1 just before the off :eek: No sign of Meade yet for an interview to tell us where he goes though.

Had a feeling he'd run well today, but as usual, i didnt back him for today's race. I tool the 17/1's on offer yesterday for the 4 miler at the festival, just hope he goes down that route

BumperD · 15-02-2015 06:42PM

BumperD wrote: »

If Very Wood is back to somewhere near his best 66-1 for the RSA looks value for a 2014 festival winner. He looks like an RSA type and that race he won in Galway does throw up RSA horses (Jessie's dream and Don Cossack both won that beginners chase and were prominent in the RSA betting the following year).

A pleasing performance from Very Wood. Unfortunately, from post race comments below, it looks like the 4miler is the preferred route but for those who took the 66/1 on offer yesterday, I woodn't be tearing up the docket just yet.

""I don't know what was wrong with him. He can be a bit funny at home, but he has started looking better recently and felt better," said Meade.

"He worked well on the flat at Punchestown with Apache Stronghold and Texas Jack, and that has been nicely boosted since.

"He proved himself last year and three miles isn't really a problem - he ran up the hill at Cheltenham like he was going round the first time when he won the Albert Bartlett.

"That was quite incredible, so stamina is his forte. I think he'll jump better off better ground.

"He's a Cheltenham winner so he has to go back if he's all right. My initial reaction is to go for the four-miler, but it's up to Eddie and Michael (O'Leary) what they want to do."

The National Hunt Chase would be Cooper's choice and the jockey said: "For once I picked the right one. I picked him because he did a nice piece of work and thank goodness it paid off.

"I never thought we were going quick, but he got into a lovely rhythm and was jumping great. He'd be some ride in the four-miler if he went that way."
http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=551610&lid=&raceid=&title=Wood+stars+in+very+good+show&ref=PA+Racing+Feed&nav=&sub=&day=Sun

Gregk961 · 15-02-2015 07:01PM

Any thoughts on Beat That for the world hurdle? Looked like one of the top staying novice hurdlers last year and Henderson gave the impression this was the objective for the year. A poor Re-appearance over Christmas has to be forgiven of course, but I doubt much was expected that day.

Not been much news on the horse all season has he been struggling for fitness or what is it?

jimjamcos · 15-02-2015 07:07PM

Gregk961 wrote: »

Any thoughts on Beat That for the world hurdle? Looked like one of the top staying novice hurdlers last year and Henderson gave the impression this was the objective for the year. A poor Re-appearance over Christmas has to be forgiven of course, but I doubt much was expected that day.

Not been much news on the horse all season has he been struggling for fitness or what is it?

I backed himself and Zarkander a few weeks back. His beating of Don Poli at Punchestown was what attracted me to him. I didn't think his comeback run was bad either. He travelled very well before blowing up and the total lack of market support beforehand seemed to suggest that would be the case. The real worry for me would be the lack of a run since and how weak he seems on exchanges. They're obviously finding it hard to keep him right

posturingpat · 15-02-2015 07:47PM

posturingpat wrote: »

Someone mentioned the 4 miler above, I've 2 words Very wood.

Why did i not put my money where my mouth is

This waiting around for NRNB isn't working out too well

BumperD · 15-02-2015 08:07PM

Waiting for nrnb is never a bad strategy, he is worth backing at Cheltenham regardless of what race he goes for. 4 miler available at 10's and I guess he will be 7's come nrnb which isn't that big a difference.

sdoc13 · 15-02-2015 08:10PM

posturingpat wrote: »

Why did i not put my money where my mouth is This waiting around for NRNB isn't working out too well

Nearly did the same but took the 25s with hills this morning. Would have backed him today at 7s but was out n about.

Hope he goes to the 4 miler now.

Gregk961 · 15-02-2015 08:37PM

jimjamcos wrote: »

I backed himself and Zarkander a few weeks back. His beating of Don Poli at Punchestown was what attracted me to him. I didn't think his comeback run was bad either. He travelled very well before blowing up and the total lack of market support beforehand seemed to suggest that would be the case. The real worry for me would be the lack of a run since and how weak he seems on exchanges. They're obviously finding it hard to keep him right

Ya I was looking at very woods form from last year when I spotted him, had nearly forgotten to be honest. The horses he had behind for his two wins at Aintree and punch are very impressive

gillamandango · 15-02-2015 09:46PM

Nice little boost for As Quart De Tour in the bumper today, with Cogryhill

jimjamcos · 15-02-2015 10:09PM

More of That blue on exchanges. Seems very likely he could turn up yet

madmoose · 15-02-2015 10:22PM

Mccoy be desparate for him to run aswell being a big ride seeing as fishers cross has gone at the game even as the reserve.

jimjamcos · 15-02-2015 10:26PM

madmoose wrote: »

Mccoy be desparate for him to run aswell being a big ride seeing as fishers cross has gone at the game even as the reserve.

Results of tests expected by Wednesday according to Berry. Can expect market to tell the tale before then though

ste2010 · 15-02-2015 11:03PM

posturingpat wrote: »

On what evidence is he a grade 1 2 mile chaser? I am aghast at how he's the price he is.

Well he did get pipped in the only novice grade 1 chase at the festival last season. A race which has a solid record of producing a horse which fairs well in the champion chase the following season. When you add in the fact he won a G1 hurdle beating first and second in the champion hurdle last season on the same course, the season before beating in a bumper the champion hurdle winner and 3rd it's safe to say he likes to perform on the course. When you add the fact that at Cheltenham you really want to be a stayer or super classy to win a race over 2m he's firmly in the picture.
When you factor in sprinter sacre and sire de grugy don't look to what they used to be it looks a perfect opportunity for another horse to fill the void..
I started looking at the rest of the horses and their form on undulating tracks also Cheltenham at the level that champagne fever has run in other races and it's pretty clear to me the chance he has..the first tip you get from any Cheltenham tipster is course form is important.
I actually think he should be a 3-1 shot and the other 2 would be superstars 6-1
Now back to the point of being a G1 chaser. Rewind to the clonmel oil chase-how many G1 winning chasers did he have behind him on that day? A multiple cross water champion chase winner, a paddy power gold cup winner, a john durkan chase winner, a JNwine champion chase winner, they be aged horses but when champagne fever is right and on his day he's capable of beating anything over 2m at cheltenham

posturingpat · 15-02-2015 11:38PM

ste2010 wrote: »

Well he did get pipped in the only novice grade 1 chase at the festival last season. A race which has a solid record of producing a horse which fairs well in the champion chase the following season. When you add in the fact he won a G1 hurdle beating first and second in the champion hurdle last season on the same course, the season before beating in a bumper the champion hurdle winner and 3rd it's safe to say he likes to perform on the course. When you add the fact that at Cheltenham you really want to be a stayer or super classy to win a race over 2m he's firmly in the picture.
When you factor in sprinter sacre and sire de grugy don't look to what they used to be it looks a perfect opportunity for another horse to fill the void..
I started looking at the rest of the horses and their form on undulating tracks also Cheltenham at the level that champagne fever has run in other races and it's pretty clear to me the chance he has..the first tip you get from any Cheltenham tipster is course form is important.
I actually think he should be a 3-1 shot and the other 2 would be superstars 6-1
Now back to the point of being a G1 chaser. Rewind to the clonmel oil chase-how many G1 winning chasers did he have behind him on that day? A multiple cross water champion chase winner, a paddy power gold cup winner, a john durkan chase winner, a JNwine champion chase winner, they be aged horses but when champagne fever is right and on his day he's capable of beating anything over 2m at cheltenham

The bumper and hurdle form would suggest he should be a grade 1 performer over fences if translating that form but look at his chase form. You say he was 2nd last year as if its good, WW in his other 2 chases to date beat a horse rated in the 130's by a neck and in the other almost got lapped by uxizandre. In his chase career Cf has won 3 of his 8 starts each of which he has been odds on for. To suggest the Clonmel chase form is proper grade 1 form i find quite ludicrous to be honest. CF has been trained for the 1st half of the season for a staying campaign(different training) but now they've copped he doesn't have a chance in the gold cup they're dropping him back, if he was in the Ryanair i could in someway understand why people fancy him but in the champion chase for people to think he's value over 2 mile in a grade 1 chase as the 3rd favourite between 4 and 6/1 a month beforehand despite being in against multiple time grade 1 2 mile chase winners to be one of the most insane prices I've ever seen even with taking the Mullins/ricci/ruby factor into consideration. The more i think about this the more i think im going to lay the nuts off this horse on the day when the Mullins fanboys latch on.

ste2010 · 15-02-2015 11:50PM

posturingpat wrote: »

The bumper and hurdle form would suggest he should be a grade 1 performer over fences if translating that form but look at his chase form. You say he was 2nd last year as if its good, WW in his other 2 chases to date beat a horse rated in the 130's by a neck and in the other almost got lapped by uxizandre. In his chase career Cf has won 3 of his 8 starts each of which he has been odds on for. To suggest the Clonmel chase form is proper grade 1 form i find quite ludicrous to be honest. CF has been trained for the 1st half of the season for a staying campaign(different training) but now they've copped he doesn't have a chance in the gold cup they're dropping him back, if he was in the Ryanair i could in someway understand why people fancy him but in the champion chase for people to think he's value over 2 mile in a grade 1 chase as the 3rd favourite between 4 and 6/1 a month beforehand despite being in against multiple time grade 1 2 mile chase winners to be one of the most insane prices I've ever seen even with taking the Mullins/ricci/ruby factor into consideration. The more i think about this the more i think im going to lay the nuts off this horse on the day when the Mullins fanboys latch on.

Wasn't dodging bullets behind him last season at Cheltenham ? DB beaten practically everything else in the market and how would you rate his chances?
This notion of a horse coming 2nd or 3rd in a grade 1 race and not being a grade 1 horse is ludicrous (this is a general point across the forum). The idea of being a grade 1 horse only when your winning is stupid. I think the market is shaped around 3 things. The dream that sprinter sacre or sire de grugy will come back and the chance they might not, the latter determining the shorter prices for the others behind. I honestly can't see anything behind him in the betting staying up the hill in this grade. Only the 2 in front if they managed to reproduce a good chunk of their past form. Who's your idea of a winner in this race?

ste2010 · 15-02-2015 11:51PM

posturingpat wrote: »

The bumper and hurdle form would suggest he should be a grade 1 performer over fences if translating that form but look at his chase form. You say he was 2nd last year as if its good, WW in his other 2 chases to date beat a horse rated in the 130's by a neck and in the other almost got lapped by uxizandre. In his chase career Cf has won 3 of his 8 starts each of which he has been odds on for. To suggest the Clonmel chase form is proper grade 1 form i find quite ludicrous to be honest. CF has been trained for the 1st half of the season for a staying campaign(different training) but now they've copped he doesn't have a chance in the gold cup they're dropping him back, if he was in the Ryanair i could in someway understand why people fancy him but in the champion chase for people to think he's value over 2 mile in a grade 1 chase as the 3rd favourite between 4 and 6/1 a month beforehand despite being in against multiple time grade 1 2 mile chase winners to be one of the most insane prices I've ever seen even with taking the Mullins/ricci/ruby factor into consideration. The more i think about this the more i think im going to lay the nuts off this horse on the day when the Mullins fanboys latch on.

Wasn't dodging bullets behind him last season at Cheltenham ? DB beaten practically everything else in the market and how would you rate his chances?
This notion of a horse coming 2nd or 3rd in a grade 1 race and not being a grade 1 horse is ludicrous (this is a general point across the forum). The idea of being a grade 1 horse only when your winning is stupid. I think the market is shaped around 3 things. The dream that sprinter sacre or sire de grugy will come back and the chance they might not, the latter determining the shorter prices for the others behind. I honestly can't see anything behind him in the betting staying up the hill in this grade. Only the 2 in front if they managed to reproduce a good chunk of their past form. Who's your idea of a winner in this race?

posturingpat · 16-02-2015 12:02AM

ste2010 wrote: »

Wasn't dodging bullets behind him last season at Cheltenham ? DB beaten practically everything else in the market and how would you rate his chances?
This notion of a horse coming 2nd or 3rd in a grade 1 race and not being a grade 1 horse is ludicrous (this is a general point across the forum). The idea of being a grade 1 horse only when your winning is stupid. I think the market is shaped around 3 things. The dream that sprinter sacre or sire de grugy will come back and the chance they might not, the latter determining the shorter prices for the others behind. I honestly can't see anything behind him in the betting staying up the hill in this grade. Only the 2 in front if they managed to reproduce a good chunk of their past form. Who's your idea of a winner in this race?

Heres where you're really going to get steam coming out of your ears. I think dodging bullets is the bet of the race e/w he's a completely different animal this year he was like a lanky minor playing senior last year and now he's after a year in the gym and on the protein shakes,his Jumpings improved a lot and the good ground will improve him again him being flat bred. His lack of Cheltenham form is a slight concern but as i say i think he's only grown up this year.if i can get 5 or 6/1 between now and then ill have a few bob e/w on him.

Simply Ned could run a decent race at a big price too if getting the good ground he needs but shouldn't be good enough to win.

mdwexford · 16-02-2015 12:06AM

Champagne Fever is priced up on his excellent past festival form and his connections.

His chase career has been disappointing so far. He's stepped up to grade 1 company 4 times and has been beaten on each occasion.

He has also never won over 2 miles over fences.

Saying he should be 3/1 fav is ludicrous.

He may come alive again at the festival but if he couldn't beat Western Warhorse he won't win a champion chase. I don't think he's progressed much this season and going up and down in distance doesn't help either.

If he was 12s or so an each way case could be made but at 5s he's no value.

ste2010 · 16-02-2015 08:09AM

posturingpat wrote: »

Heres where you're really going to get steam coming out of your ears. I think dodging bullets is the bet of the race e/w he's a completely different animal this year he was like a lanky minor playing senior last year and now he's after a year in the gym and on the protein shakes,his Jumpings improved a lot and the good ground will improve him again him being flat bred. His lack of Cheltenham form is a slight concern but as i say i think he's only grown up this year.if i can get 5 or 6/1 between now and then ill have a few bob e/w on him.

Simply Ned could run a decent race at a big price too if getting the good ground he needs but shouldn't be good enough to win.

I couldn't argue with the angle. He was only 6 if I can recall last season so there's no reason why he hasn't progressed. I think the hill and champagne fever will be his biggest obstacles

Shemale · 16-02-2015 08:17AM

BumperD wrote: »

Waiting for nrnb is never a bad strategy, he is worth backing at Cheltenham regardless of what race he goes for. 4 miler available at 10's and I guess he will be 7's come nrnb which isn't that big a difference.

A good few firms are bog when they go nrnb so its not that bad. Backed him at 5 and was delighted to see it settled at 13/2.

If he travels and jumps like that he will go close in either race.

ste2010 · 16-02-2015 08:27AM

mdwexford wrote: »

Champagne Fever is priced up on his excellent past festival form and his connections.

His chase career has been disappointing so far. He's stepped up to grade 1 company 4 times and has been beaten on each occasion.

He has also never won over 2 miles over fences.

Saying he should be 3/1 fav is ludicrous.

He may come alive again at the festival but if he couldn't beat Western Warhorse he won't win a champion chase. I don't think he's progressed much this season and going up and down in distance doesn't help either.

If he was 12s or so an each way case could be made but at 5s he's no value.

He has ran only twice over the distance as you alluded to they were playing with his targets too much.
The first time he ran over C and D he was a head beaten in the arkle ahead of next in the betting.
The second time at punchestown it was pretty obvious he was over the top.
Sire De Grugy was beaten by Kid Cassidy at the start of the season last year. Kid Cassidy hasn't done anything remotely near that form since. It's safe to say some horses have their days in ref western warhorse.
Who's your idea of a winner?

ste2010 · 16-02-2015 09:03AM

Here's an interesting RSA stat which doesn't play in Don Poli's favour.
No horse has won the RSA having not raced within 55 days of the festival.
Is he due for a quick spin before March?

jimjamcos · 16-02-2015 09:53AM

ste2010 wrote: »

Here's an interesting RSA stat which doesn't play in Don Poli's favour.
No horse has won the RSA having not raced within 55 days of the festival.
Is he due for a quick spin before March?

Hope nobody tells poor Don! :P

ste2010 · 16-02-2015 10:14AM

jimjamcos wrote: »

Hope nobody tells poor Don! :P

He looks standout without Coneygree running but it's a stat that doesn't lie though. Morning assembly came 3rd with that stat in mind but the first 2 home had run 4 weeks prior

skippymac6 · 16-02-2015 10:22AM

ste2010 wrote: »

He has ran only twice over the distance as you alluded to they were playing with his targets too much.
The first time he ran over C and D he was a head beaten in the arkle ahead of next in the betting.
The second time at punchestown it was pretty obvious he was over the top.
Sire De Grugy was beaten by Kid Cassidy at the start of the season last year. Kid Cassidy hasn't done anything remotely near that form since. It's safe to say some horses have their days in ref western warhorse.
Who's your idea of a winner?

I remember Sizing Europe was very similar when he won the Queen Mother a few years back. After winning the Arkle (slightly unfancied after Captain Cee Bee went off fav) he was upped in trip and beaten in the JNWine chase at Down Royal. He was then third to Golden Silver and Big Zeb in the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown before winning the Queen Mother.

Point is that if the horse is good enough then the messing around at the different trips isn't an issue. Over 2 miles at cheltenham in all three forms of race type, he has fantastic course form over the trip. I agree that he is a point or two short at 9/2 or 5/1 but he certainly has as good a chance as any if he gets into a good jumping rhythm and doesn't make one of his race stopping blunders. There are question marks about pretty much every fancied runner in the field and I agree that Dodging Bullets looks the most "safe" fancy but still think one of the more unfancied types could spring a surprise.

Cheltenham Festival 2015

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