Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 24-11-2014 08:39AM

Monday, 24 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy as a weak frontal system drifts across the country bringing some very light drizzly rain (1-3 mm) although it may stay foggy for a time in a few places across the inland south where colder air may remain trapped for a while. Highs about 6-8 C (10 C coastal margins).

TONIGHT ... Partial clearing will allow scattered frost and fog to develop again, with lows -2 to +4 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, some persistent low cloud from early fog, and highs about 8-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy, some fog or mist, drizzle, southeast winds becoming a little stronger at 30-50 km/hr, lows 1-3 C and highs 7-9 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Mild with moderate southeast to south winds, occasional light rain, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

The WEEKEND OUTLOOK has changed as models get new information on the major storm system leaving North America mid-week. Apparently this will move close enough to Ireland to drag some even milder air into the region around Saturday and possibly lasting through Sunday, with highs 10-12 C, before colder air begins to surge in behind the system on Monday, 1st of December. This colder air may not be quite cold enough for snow except perhaps on higher terrain, but temperatures will drop several degrees into the 5-7 C range.

This storm is currently near Chicago and is dropping rain across much of the northeastern U.S. on top of some locally heavy snow packs. Flooding is likely to develop as highs reach 15 C over the melting snow and 20 C over bare ground on the east coast. Despite that, much colder air will quickly return once the low gets into Quebec on Tuesday, and allows arctic air to rush in on strong westerly winds. Some snow is then likely although not a repeat of the recent lake effect mega-squalls. Meanwhile the west remains rather placid and mild, dry in the southwestern U.S., and drizzly further north, although we had some sunshine earlier on Sunday with a high of 8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 25-11-2014 08:59AM

Tuesday, 25 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with some lingering fog in some central regions, drizzle at times, highs near 9 or 10 C where fog dissipates, but temperatures could be held down in the 5-7 C range in a few areas. Light southeast winds. (note that freezing fog could be encountered in parts of Britain)

TONIGHT ... Fog becoming widespread and possibly some zero visibilities as a hazard for road travel, lows 2-5 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Foggy or misty, some outbreaks of light rain in west, highs about 7-9 C.

THURSDAY ... Stronger winds will dissipate most of the fog (southeast 40-60 km/hr), milder with light rain (3-5 mm west, 0-3 mm east). Highs near 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Continued mild with southeast winds and showers at times, highs reaching 11 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Mild, showery with highs around 11 or 12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Turning colder early next week with frost or fog returning as pressures rise again. Highs in the 6-8 C range, some lows will be below -2 C.

In North America, much warmer conditions melted most of the snow with some flooding underway in formerly heavy snow zones, record high temperatures or close to records were noted all over the east, while it turned slowly colder in central regions with rain turning back to wet snow there. The west remains very mild and rather persistent rain has moved into southern British Columbia and parts of Washington state. This will continue most of the week, with highs near 11 C. The desert southwest is warm and dry near 23 C.

M.T. Cranium · 26-11-2014 08:05AM

Wednesday, 26 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Fog may be persistent in some inland valleys, coasts and urban areas are more likely to have better visibility. With light winds continuing, the air may not mix and highs will vary from 7-10 C in coastal regions to 4-7 C over inland counties. Watch for patchy freezing fog until about 0900h especially in parts of inland west Munster.

TONIGHT ... Drizzle may overspread some western counties and it will turn a bit milder there, but some clear conditions overhead could allow dense fog and frost to return to parts of the central and inland eastern counties. Lows there may fall to -2 C. Coasts and most western counties will remain 2-5 C.

THURSDAY ... Breezy, milder with occasional light rain, winds SE 40-60 km/hr and highs near 10 C. Rainfalls mainly over western counties of 2-5 mm.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, some fog returning, generally rather mild with lows about 3-5 C and highs 8-11 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Although a rather strong storm will be passing to the north, current indications are that high pressure with an inversion may develop over most of Ireland except for the north coast where it may be cloudy with occasional rain. Otherwise, coastal areas should be fairly mild around 10 C but inland, some valley locations may experience persistent fog keeping temperatures down to 5-7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This rather non-descript weather pattern seems to be trying to hold on for as long as it can, but eventually it could be replaced by something more active. I continue to think December will bring a bit of everything but may end up rather mild towards the end. The longer this low-energy weather pattern persists, the better the chances for arctic air to establish itself over northern Europe, so while it is quite a boring weather experience, the alternative would be last winter's more certain absence of any chance for winter weather patterns.

Meanwhile, conditions remain about the same for Britain although today there is a bit more light rain moving through from the south. North America's brief warm spell over eastern regions is coming to an end with a coastal storm bringing rain and inland snow that could become heavy in places such as eastern PA, northern NJ and CT into MA. The mild weather in the west continues, locally we had some light rain at times and highs near 12 C on Tuesday.

M.T. Cranium · 27-11-2014 09:12AM

Thursday, 27 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Patchy dense fog with some freezing fog conditions will gradually disperse as winds pick up to 40-60 km/hr from the southeast. Milder by afternoon with highs reaching 8-11 C for most. Some drizzle or light rain may give 1-3 mm in parts of west Munster, mostly trace amounts elsewhere.

TONIGHT ... Breezy enough to prevent frost or dense fog although misty with a little more drizzle or light rain, lows 3-6 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, some brighter intervals developing across parts of the north, patchy light rain in west Munster with highs 9-12 C.

SATURDAY ... Overnight clearing and light winds may see a return to dense fog and scattered frost inland, then the day will be misty or hazy but mild near coasts and where the fog lifts inland, staying rather cold in more persistent fog in some valleys. Lows -3 to +2 C, highs near 10 C coastal, 5-8 C further inland.

SUNDAY ... Widespread dense fog may be very slow to lift, otherwise similar to the conditions on Saturday, lows -4 to +2 C, highs 6-10 C.

MONDAY ... Foggy conditions may clear in somewhat stronger south to southwest breezes, then light rain from a weak frontal system, lows -2 to +4 and highs 8-11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Higher pressure will build in from the southwest, leading to extensive fog and mist, rather mild near coasts but with potential for frost or fog to linger inland.

Over the eastern U.S., snowfalls of 10-20 cm were fairly widespread inland with heavy rain closer to the Atlantic coasts, but this storm has now moved into eastern Canada en route to western Iceland, and slow clearing will follow with rather cold temperatures for most east of the Rockies. The far west and most of the south remain mild and dry except for some rain moving into parts of Washington state and southern B.C. ... My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy and foggy with light rain at times, highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 28-11-2014 08:13AM

Friday, 28 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Variable cloud, some brighter intervals developing across parts of the north, patchy light rain mostly confined to west Munster with mild highs of 9-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clearing will promote widespread fog, a few places may drop below freezing but highs mainly 2-5 C, locally -2 C with freezing fog possible.

SATURDAY ... Overnight clearing and light winds may see a return to dense fog and scattered frost inland, then the day will be misty or hazy but mild near coasts and where the fog lifts inland, staying rather cold in more persistent fog in some valleys. Lows -3 to +2 C, highs near 10 C coastal, 5-8 C further inland.

SUNDAY ... Widespread dense fog may be very slow to lift, otherwise similar to the conditions on Saturday, lows -4 to +2 C, highs 7-11 C.

MONDAY ... Foggy conditions may clear in somewhat stronger south to southwest breezes, then light rain from a weak frontal system, lows -2 to +4 and highs 8-11 C. The light rain may amount to 3-5 mm in the north but will be reduced to trace amounts in the south.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Higher pressure will build in from the southwest, leading to extensive fog and mist, rather mild near coasts but with potential for frost or fog to linger inland. Highs during this period will average 8-10 C. That spell will be followed by another weak frontal system by Thursday, and according to current guidance, another Atlantic high will then build in, although this one will have some rather cold temperature profiles as it will be drawing down some modified arctic air from Greenland as it approaches. The results may be extensive low cloud and temperatures around 4-6 C later in the week, and sharper frosts.

In general, temperatures over the next ten to fifteen days will average close to normal values but coastal areas may run a bit above, inland areas below normal.

The weather pattern across North America has become fairly quiet again, with colder air slowly pressing south across western Canada. That created some heavy snow in central B.C. on Thursday, but it remained mild on the south coast and some places had record highs near 17 C, with a few sunny breaks developing in the cloud cover. The colder air mass will be slowly moving south to end this mild spell and clear the skies -- only isolated flurries are expected as the snow moves further east as well as south towards Montana and North Dakota.

M.T. Cranium · 29-11-2014 08:59AM

Saturday, 29 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some persistent fog or mist, especially over inland valleys, while hazy sunshine could develop in coastal areas and over higher terrain. Due to an inversion, it will be unusually mild on hills today and Sunday. Highs will vary from about 10-11 C in coastal sunshine, to 5-7 C in persistent fog or mist inland. Winds very light or calm.

TONIGHT ... Foggy, some scattered light frost likely, lows -1 to +4 C, calm with some drizzle on northwest coasts.

SUNDAY ... Little change with extensive, persistent fog and coastal hazy sunshine developing, highs in the range of 5-8 C in persistent fog and about 11 or 12 C in coastal areas.

MONDAY ... Morning fog or mist, then increasing cloud, outbreaks of light rain by mid-day. Amounts only 2-4 mm in north, trace amounts south. Lows about -2 to +3 C and highs 7-10 C.

TUESDAY ... Early morning freezing fog or frost, colder, some sunshine developing by afternoon. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs 5-8 C.

WEDNESDAY to SATURDAY will see two pulses of higher pressure with rather cold air from a source in the south Greenland to Labrador region. This will lead to some sharp or even severe frosts that may become persistent, lows could fall into the -6 to -3 C range, and highs may struggle to surpass 5-6 C.

This spell may also have some dense fog patches especially inland, and one or two sleety showers in weak sea effect streamers near coasts. That activity will tend to shift around from day to day with changing wind directions.

Beyond this very stable and cool regime, there is likely to be a return to somewhat milder westerly flow for a time towards mid-December.

My local weather has turned much colder on Friday, temperatures were falling all day in brisk northwest winds, and scattered sleet has turned to wet snow this evening. There's an icy coating on the ground but no real accumulations. Current temperature is near the freezing point, after a morning high of 10 C.

This cold snap is expected to be rather brief and temperatures next week around here will be back up into the 8-10 C range.

M.T. Cranium · 30-11-2014 08:28AM

Sunday, 30 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Extensive fog or mist may be rather slow to clear, but some coastal districts will get brighter intervals or even sunshine. Highs will reach 10-12 C where the sun breaks through, but will remain 6-8 C under low cloud or fog. There may be intervals of drizzle or light rain in west Ulster and north Connacht.

TONIGHT ... Foggy or misty, rather cold, lows generally 2-5 C but some inland frosts with lows near -1 C.

MONDAY ... Fog gradually lifting, light rain developing across parts of the north, 2-4 mm at most, and this will eventually disperse over the south with even smaller amounts. Highs about 9 or 10 C. Winds becoming moderate from the southwest to west after the weak front passes.

TUESDAY ... Freezing fog with frost in the morning, some clearing later. Cold, with a few weak onshore showers in parts of the northwest. Otherwise dry, morning lows -4 to -1 C (2-4 C coastal west Munster) and highs 6-8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Some fog and frost to start, sunny intervals but rather cold again, lows -4 to -1 C and highs 7-9 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue rather cold with sharp frosts and widespread fog, sometimes freezing fog. Lows around -5 to -2 C and highs around 5 to 7 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Somewhat milder on Saturday with light rain developing, highs near 10 C, then becoming windy, then turning colder on Sunday as winds increase from the west to northwest. Passing showers could become wintry on higher ground. Highs around 5 or 6 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some indications of a wintry spell developing as winds turn increasingly to the north, and draw on very cold air from higher latitudes. This may require a period of transition but eventually would expect to see some potential for snow and near-freezing daytime temperatures with severe frosts. Would say confidence is only moderate at this stage.

Meanwhile, my local (Saturday) weather was very cold and mostly sunny after about 2 cm of overnight snow. There was a bit of ice as a result. The afternoon highs were only about -2 C and it felt more like -10 C in the wind. Looks like another very cold day on Sunday then a gradual warming trend here as this arctic air mass pushes away from western Canada towards the east. After quite a cold month, it was milder in Chicago on Saturday at 12 C. This milder air will be spreading over the eastern seaboard on Sunday and will remain until mid-day Monday before the western chill arrives there.

M.T. Cranium · 01-12-2014 08:39AM

Monday, 1 December, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Fog gradually lifting, a few sunny breaks possible mid-morning before light rain develops across parts of the north and west, 3-6 mm at most, and this will eventually disperse over the south and east with even smaller amounts. Highs about 9 or 10 C. Winds becoming moderate from the southwest to west after the weak front passes.

TONIGHT ... Becoming very cold with freezing fog in some places, sharp frosts and possible icy roads. Lows -4 to -1 C except for a few coastal areas that avoid frost by 1-2 degrees.

TUESDAY ... Freezing fog with frost in the morning, some clearing later. Cold, with a few weak onshore showers in parts of the northwest. Otherwise dry, morning lows -4 to -1 C (2-4 C coastal west Munster) and highs 6-8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Some fog and frost to start, sunny intervals but rather cold again, lows -4 to -1 C and highs 7-9 C. Freezing fog could be persistent in north central counties.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue rather cold with sharp frosts and widespread fog, sometimes freezing fog. Lows around -5 to -2 C and highs around 5 to 7 C. It may turn a bit milder on Friday in the west (8-10 C).

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Somewhat milder on Saturday with light rain developing, highs near 10 C, then becoming windy, then turning colder on Sunday as winds increase from the west to northwest. Passing showers could become wintry on higher ground. Highs around 6 or 7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The pattern will become increasingly stormy, and the air flow will be cool and unsettled with somewhat of a northern source involved despite the westerly flow. The following week looks windy and quite cold with highs only 5-8 C, and there is some potential for much colder air to break through and drop temperatures further. Wintry showers seem likely especially on higher terrain in the northwest.

Meanwhile, a brief warming trend hit the eastern U.S. where highs were in the range of 15-20 C on Sunday. This won't last much longer than today before much colder air arrives from the Midwest where temperatures are already below freezing. This is a largely dry pattern with isolated lake effect but a weak frontal wave will develop near Kentucky tonight, bringing sleet or snow across the mid-Atlantic states before that turns to a cold rain near Washington D.C. -- the severe cold further west is about to modify to more seasonable December temperatures this week, but for now it is very cold on the west coast, the high under sunny skies on Sunday was -3 C and the overnight low will be close to -8 C here. Then it starts warming up gradually each day to the end of the week. Some parts of California got some welcome rain over the weekend (welcome to drought-stricken farmers and reservoir managers at least). This was heaviest around the San Jose to central valley regions. Nothing much has fallen in the south yet.

M.T. Cranium · 02-12-2014 08:41AM

Tuesday, 2 December, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Watch out for black ice in counties from Meath to Roscommon this morning, as temperatures will remain close to freezing until about 10 a.m., with the roads damp from yesterday's light rain. In general, sunshine will be fairly widespread, but some patchy fog could develop rather quickly after sunrise near rivers and lakes, adding to the icy road problems. Also, while most places should be dry, a few brief sleety showers are indicated on radar for Connacht and above 200m elevation those could be hail or even snow briefly. However, very little of that activity will persist beyond the midlands and what there is should die off during the afternoon. Highs near 6 or 7 C for most, could reach 9 C south coast. Moderate northwest winds 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Widespread sharp frosts, ice fog patches and icy roads. Winds becoming calm. Lows -4 to -1 C, just a few coastal fringes escaping frost.

WEDNESDAY ... Persistent fog in places and widespread low cloud, a few sunny breaks developing, cold. Highs 5-8 C.

THURSDAY ... Little change although some patchy drizzle in the mix, foggy to start, variable cloud and cold later, lows -4 to -1 C and highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, after a foggy start, light rain developing in some western areas, slightly milder. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 7-10 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Windy at times, somewhat milder on Saturday (about 10 C) with showers and blustery SW to W winds, but falling back to around 6 or 7 C by Sunday with showers possibly more wintry over higher terrain.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Models are having some problems assessing the intensity of the developing storm track which threatens to produce some severe gales by mid-week, and not turning as mild as some might expect in an Atlantic dominated flow because the air masses are originating from eastern Canada rather than the central Atlantic and are not modifying very quickly due to the fast flow aloft. Thus highs only 5-8 C and wintry shower potential at higher elevations. Also, watching developments north of central Russia where a cut-off high pressure area with a very high central pressure near 1055 mb is meandering around -- models have been generally showing this feature slopping around in the very high latitudes but some of its eventual motion could be towards Greenland. If that manages to ridge through to a westward-drifting Azores high, then we could see a surge of very cold air heading south towards Ireland at some point after the 10th, most likely around the middle of the month. This is why I think there could be a snowfall event of some consequence later this month, so be prepared just in case.

Meanwhile, this short-medium term forecast pattern will also apply to Britain where yesterday's front is now moving through central England with brief and light rainfalls. Temperatures there are still rather mild and will fall off by afternoon and evening to freezing. In North America, a modified arctic cold has spread over the Great Lakes without much lake effect snow this time, and the milder air from the weekend has been suppressed to regions south of the Carolinas, but has remained in place over Texas and the southwest. The cold further west is moderating slowly. Monday here was sunny but not as cold as the weekend with a high near 2 C. Out of the wind, it felt somewhat mild but overnight it remains quite chilly at -5 C.

M.T. Cranium · 03-12-2014 08:36AM

Wednesday, 3 December, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Persistent fog in places and widespread low cloud this morning, drizzly showers (possibly sleety at higher elevations) in western counties, then a few sunny breaks developing by mid-day and afternoon, remaining quite cold. ...
Highs 5-8 C.

TONIGHT ... Frost and fog are likely to return in parts of central and eastern counties with lows -3 to +2 C, overcast with drizzle or light rain near west coast. Lows there 2-5 C.

THURSDAY ... Little change although some patchy drizzle in the mix, foggy to start, variable cloud and cold later, highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, after a foggy start, light rain developing in some western areas, slightly milder. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 7-10 C. Moderate west to northwest winds developing (40-60 km/hr).

SATURDAY ... Becoming windy and somewhat milder on Saturday, lows about 2 C and highs about 10 C, with showers and blustery SW to W winds 50-80 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Windy and turning a bit colder again in westerly winds 50-80 km/hr, lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Windy but possibly becoming stormy especially in Connacht and Ulster, timing still somewhat uncertain for the strongest winds, and intensity could be anywhere between 80 and 130 km/hr depending on how this evolves. We can be a bit more definitive about temperatures, they will peak again on Monday near 10 or 11 C briefly then will fall steadily as the winds increase on Tuesday, levelling off near 5 C at sea level and 2 C at higher inhabited elevations (probably about -4 C on summits). Hail and snow showers seem likely in that blast of westerly winds drawing on an air mass that will have been over Baffin Island in northeast Canada just two or three days before reaching Ireland (the storm in question winds itself up very rapidly south of Greenland on Sunday night and heads east with a surge of very cold air that will start out at about -15 or -20 C, so after two days over the rather chilly far Northern Atlantic it won't have much time to modify).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Model evolution beyond this stormy period is probably of low confidence especially when we consider that there is a very strong blocking high drifting around north of Russia with an opening in the direction of eastern Greenland once the strong low passes (unless it were to loop back around as some guidance weakly suggests). This is why I continue to think there could be a turn towards very cold temperatures by mid-month but would say confidence on that is no better than 50-50, probably more like 30%. The other alternatives are something like 50% for continued cold unsettled west to northwest flow, and 20% milder southwest flow although there seems to be little chance of anything very mild.

See yesterday's report for a few thoughts about Britain and North America. My local weather has continued clear and rather cold although not as severe a chill as we had on the weekend. The high on Tuesday was about 3 C and it is now around -2 C at 11:30 p.m.

M.T. Cranium · 04-12-2014 08:46AM

Thursday, 4 December, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some light rain that could turn sleety on hills around Dublin will edge away to the east later this morning, while further west, freezing fog may become rather persistent in some eastern and central counties. The west will be brighter with scattered showers, some of which could become wintry on hills there. Light winds will persist in some eastern counties while a gradual increase in west to northwest winds will add some chill in the west (gusts to 70 km/hr later this afternoon). Highs will average 6 or 7 C but a few places may be colder if the fog persists.

TONIGHT ... Breezy, cold, wintry showers on hills, rain or hail in parts of the west although amounts fairly slight. Patchy frost and ice fog further east. Lows near coasts around +2 C, inland -3 to +1 C.

FRIDAY ... Rather windy (NW 40-70 km/hr) and cold with passing showers, wintry on some hills in the north and west in particular. Also a few sunny intervals. The stronger winds should ease the fog issue at least. Lows around -2 C and highs around 7 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and somewhat milder with passing showers, a few with hail or thunder. Lows near 3 C and highs 10-12 C. Winds WSW 50-80 km/hr, possible higher gusts.

SUNDAY ... Continued rather windy and a bit colder again with passing hail or sleet showers. Lows near 3 C and highs near 7 or 8 C. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Windy, periods of rain, temperatures steady around 8-10 C although reaching 12 C south coast. Winds southwest 70-100 km/hr. About 15-25 mm rain with this stage of the developing storm.

TUESDAY ... Windy and turning gradually colder in stages, showers becoming increasingly wintry towards afternoon and evening, winds westerly 70-120 km/hr. Strong gusts likely in Connacht and west Ulster, parts of west Munster. Lows about 4 C and highs 6-8 C, falling off to near 2 C over higher terrain by afternoon or evening.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and cold with passing wintry showers, winds WNW 70-120 km/hr. Lows near 1 C and highs near 5 C.

OUTLOOK ... The most likely outcome is for a similar regime to continue with further windy and unsettled conditions and temperatures not particularly mild for an Atlantic-dominated flow since that will be drawing on very cold air flowing out of Greenland and Baffin Island. The high that I mentioned yesterday over northern Russia has begun to push right over the north pole towards Greenland and I am not entirely convinced that the models have a firm handle on what is evolving, so let's just say that rather dramatic changes could develop in weather outlooks past the end of next week.

My local weather on Wednesday continued sunny and somewhat cold, with the high around 4 C. Looks like cloud will move in here with a bit of sleet turning to light rain eventually during the next couple of days and temperatures will return to normal which is about 8-9 C. Eastern North America has what is left of the strong arctic high now, and that is sliding out over the Atlantic to move south of Ireland over the weekend. Temperatures are only slightly below normal in the northeast U.S. as a result of this modification.

M.T. Cranium · 05-12-2014 08:26AM

Friday, 5 December, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rather windy (NW 40-70 km/hr) and cold with passing showers, wintry on some hills in the north and west in particular. Also a few sunny intervals, more frequent in eastern counties. Highs around 7 C although temperatures could fall back to 3-4 C during wintry showers in parts of Connacht and Ulster.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, frost developing rather early, but this may dissipate as milder air arrives later with cloud. Lows near -1 C early, some areas staying near that level but western districts generally warming towards morning in southwest winds, 3-5 C by morning.

SATURDAY ... Windy and somewhat milder with passing showers, a few with hail or thunder. Lows near 3 C and highs 10-12 C. Winds WSW 50-80 km/hr, possible higher gusts.

SUNDAY ... Continued rather windy and a bit colder again with passing hail or sleet showers. Lows near 3 C and highs near 7 or 8 C. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Windy, periods of rain, perhaps falling as sleet on higher terrain, cold for east and north until evening (4-7 C) but later on, temperatures steady 8-10 C although reaching 12 C south coast. Winds increasing to southwest 70-100 km/hr. About 15-25 mm rain likely overnight into Tuesday with this stage of the developing storm.

TUESDAY ... Windy and milder for part of the day,l then turning gradually colder in stages, showers becoming increasingly wintry towards afternoon and evening, winds westerly 70-120 km/hr. Strong gusts likely in Connacht and west Ulster, parts of west Munster. Morning temperatures near 10 C then falling off to 6-8 C, and near 2 C over higher terrain by afternoon or evening.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY ... Windy and cold with passing wintry showers, winds WNW 70-120 km/hr. Lows near 1 C and highs near 5 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Cold and windy on Friday with the stronger gusts easing slowly, mixed wintry showers likely, highs near 5 C. Somewhat milder for a few days once this stormy interval ends, but another similar cycle of strong winds and colder unsettled weather seems likely about a week later, if not a more substantial cold spell (which remains a possibility as the models are not necessarily that reliable beyond about seven days at this point).

The general story for Britain will be almost the same as above given the fast westerly flow developing. Scotland will be particularly cold with frequent wintry showers throughout the period. Meanwhile, in North America, the pattern is relatively bland for most regions, and western regions continue to recover slowly from recent cold temperatures. My local weather on Thursday was overcast with a light rain in temperatures near 4 or 5 C. There is still a bit of snow visible on grassy surfaces but that will likely disappear during milder temperatures expected on Friday.

Astronomy preview -- full moon is Saturday 6 Dec at 12:27h.

M.T. Cranium · 06-12-2014 08:48AM

Saturday, 6 December, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Full moon occurs today at 12:27h, but at that precise time the Moon is over the Pacific regions.

TODAY ... Turning somewhat milder in strong southwest winds. Morning drizzle or light rain, followed by heavier showers as winds gust to about 80 km/hr. Highs 9-11 C for most except 7-9 C on higher ground in north. Rainfalls about 5-10 mm.

TONIGHT ... Showers turning wintry in north and west, less frequent further east, as winds veer westerly 50-70 km/hr. Lows 1-3 C and possibly a bit lower in higher parts of Connacht and Ulster, snow and ice problems may develop on higher roads there.

SUNDAY ... Bright and very cold with passing mixed wintry showers, winds westerly 50-90 km/hr, highs only 4-7 C. Hail or thunder possible. Snow may accumulate on hills.

MONDAY ... Continued cold and windy, passing sleety or wintry showers more frequent in north and west, as winds continue from west to northwest before backing into south late afternoon or evening. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs about 7 C but temperatures hovering 4-7 C most of the evening.

TUESDAY ... Windy and milder briefly, rain becoming heavy, strong SW winds 60-100 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C. However, it will begin to turn quite cold again late afternoon or evening.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will be a very windy and cold period with passing wintry showers, and some accumulations of snow on hills in Connacht and Ulster, also higher parts of west Munster. Somewhat less precip likely in east but what does arrive could be mixed in form. Winds WNW 70-110 km/hr and possible higher gusts at times near Atlantic coasts. Temperatures steady in rather narrow ranges of 2-5 C for most, although it will probably be a bit milder than that near the Atlantic coasts (7-9 C). Some ice or snow problems especially overnight hours in higher parts of the north. Friday could see a brief and slight warmup as a weak warm sector rushes past in the strong flow. This would briefly turn most precip to all rain for a time then back to mixed wintry showers later.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... The following weekend (13th-14th) will bring somewhat less blustery conditions but it will remain cold with frosts at night in the -3 to 0 C range, and highs only 5-8 C. There will be fewer showers and much less blustery winds (gusts to 50 km/hr) but still some wintry showers in parts of the north and west.

Following that, most guidance suggests brief warming but with further shots of this modified arctic air from a source near Greenland, and always the risk that a much colder interval could develop rather quickly without too many days of notice on the computer models (the flow late next week shows signs of trying to turn all the way to northerly but so far the models are not developing that idea too far).

Very cold in parts of south central England this morning, lows of -7 C reported at Benson near Oxford. Would expect some treacherous freezing fog in a few areas on the M-4 and other major routes. In general however, the pattern for Britain will be about the same as above, with Scotland seeing more frequent snow than other regions. North America continues in a rather relaxed early winter pattern after all the excitement last month, as rain or sleet moves into the inland northeast today. Some rain on the west coast with freezing rain in some interior valleys overnight and Saturday. My local weather on Friday was damp with light rain at times, highs about 6 C, and evening fog.

M.T. Cranium · 07-12-2014 08:11AM

Sunday, 7 December, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Turning colder quickly now, becoming partly cloudy and feeling very cold with passing mixed wintry showers, winds westerly 50-90 km/hr, highs only 4-7 C and wind chill values around -3 C in full exposure to the wind. Hail or thunder possible. Snow may accumulate on hills. In general, the shower activity will be more frequent in Connacht and west Ulster, and Kerry, Clare and western Cork-Limerick, than elsewhere.

TONIGHT ... Very cold with frost developing in sheltered valleys, lows -3 to +2 C depending on distance from the Atlantic (coastal areas 3-4 C). Some further wintry showers although longer dry intervals.

MONDAY ... Continued cold and windy, passing sleety or wintry showers more frequent in north and west, as winds continue from west to northwest before backing into south late afternoon or evening, highs about 7 C but temperatures hovering 4-7 C most of the evening.

TUESDAY ... Windy and milder briefly, rain becoming heavy at times with 10 to 20 mm on average, strong SW winds developing and reaching 60-100 km/hr, morning lows near 6 C after some early frost in some eastern counties, but temperatures rising later in the night, then highs near 10 C. However, it will begin to turn quite cold again late afternoon or evening.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will be a very windy and cold period with passing wintry showers, and some accumulations of snow on hills in Connacht and Ulster, also higher parts of west Munster. Somewhat less precip likely in east but what does arrive could be mixed in form. Winds WNW 70-110 km/hr and possible higher gusts at times near Atlantic coasts. Temperatures steady in rather narrow ranges of 2-5 C for most, although it will probably be a bit milder than that near the Atlantic coasts (7-9 C). Some ice or snow problems especially overnight hours in higher parts of the north. Thursday night into Friday morning could see a brief and slight warmup as a weak warm sector rushes past in the strong flow. This would briefly turn most precip to all rain for a time then back to mixed wintry showers later. Friday is now looking quite cold by afternoon and evening and this sharp cold will last for part of Saturday.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... The following weekend (13th-14th) will bring somewhat less blustery conditions but it will remain cold with frosts at night in the -3 to 0 C range, and highs only 5-8 C. There will be fewer showers and much less blustery winds (gusts to 50 km/hr) but still some wintry showers in parts of the north and west. Sunday and Monday may become a bit milder again. Keeping a close eye on model runs for any signs of a colder turn but so far the main theme seems to be variable between 5-10 C and possibly another fairly vigorous storm around the 21st to 23rd time frame. Very early call for Christmas Day and holiday period would be near normal temperatures and generally settled after that earlier storm moves through.

Saturday was wet in my part of the world and rather foggy, the high reached about 10 C. There is likely to be an east coast mixed rain and wet snow event by about Tuesday but no big storm is indicated, meanwhile, a rather persistent warm spell is developing over central regions of North America, not much sign of wintry weather for the near future in places like Denver or Oklahoma City but mild highs in the 15-20 C range.

M.T. Cranium · 08-12-2014 09:04AM

Monday, 8 December, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some icy roads in higher elevations around Ireland this morning. Partly cloudy with continued cold and windy conditions, passing sleety or wintry showers more frequent in north and west, as winds continue from west to northwest before backing into south late afternoon or evening, highs about 7 C but feeling closer to 2 or 3 C in the wind -- and it may fall off to those levels during heavier mixed or wintry showers, but then temperatures hovering 4-7 C most of the evening away from the somewhat colder northeast.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, becoming milder, rain starting in the west after midnight spreading east. Some brief icy conditions could develop in a few parts of east Ulster and north Leinster wherever cold air remains trapped for a while, but in general temperatures will be rapidly rising towards 10 C by morning.

TUESDAY ... Windy and milder briefly, rain becoming heavy at times with 10 to 20 mm on average, strong SW winds developing and reaching 60-100 km/hr, early frost or ice in some eastern counties rapidly dissipating, but temperatures rising later in the night or early morning, then temperatures steady near 10-11 C. However, it will begin to turn quite cold again late afternoon or evening. Possible squally showers with hail or thunder during the cold frontal passage.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will be a very windy and cold period with passing wintry showers, and some accumulations of snow on hills in Connacht and Ulster, also higher parts of west Munster. Somewhat less precip likely in east but what does arrive could be mixed in form. Winds WNW 70-110 km/hr and possible higher gusts at times near Atlantic coasts. Temperatures steady in rather narrow ranges of 2-5 C for most, although it will probably be a bit milder than that near the Atlantic coasts (7-9 C). Some ice or snow problems especially overnight hours in higher parts of the north. Thursday afternoon or evening (most regions) into Friday morning (southeast only) could see a brief and slight warmup as a weak warm sector rushes past in the strong flow. This would briefly turn most precip to all rain for a time then back to mixed wintry showers later. Friday is now looking quite cold by afternoon and evening with the potential for 3-5 cm snowfall accumulations in many parts of Ulster and Connacht, 1-3 cm some parts of inland north Leinster and west Munster, and this sharp cold will last for part of Saturday. Highs near 5 C or lower on Friday, lows by Saturday morning around -5 C.

OUTLOOK ... Slightly milder by Sunday into Monday morning, showers and 7-9 C, then turning colder again for a day or two, mixed wintry showers. Another slight rise in temperatures will follow; the models continue to hint at much colder weather that would develop if the west-northwest flow relaxed or moved further south to allow a full-on northerly to develop. There's a trace of this evolution showing now on Friday and Saturday but it doesn't quite take hold. What's probably missing is any large-scale warming of the upper atmosphere over Greenland or other regions northwest of Ireland to block out the Atlantic, but it remains quite cold anyway.

My local weather on Sunday was very mild and the sun was trying to shine through a thick veil of high cloud, highs reached 13 C. More rain is moving in for Monday. This very mild air is going to create a massive chinook warming in Alberta and Montana and temperatures there could easily top 15 C during the week, even 20 C is possible in a few spots. Very little of this warming will be felt east of about Minnesota or Iowa, as a cool high remains locked in over Quebec and a weak coastal storm is keeping winds northeasterly for the large cities on the east coast; precip there will be mostly rain with sleet or wet snow at higher elevations well inland.

M.T. Cranium · 09-12-2014 08:39AM

Tuesday, 9 December, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Becoming very windy (SW veering to W 70-110 km/hr) and while most of the daylight hours will remain mild (10-12 C) temperatures will fall off steadily tonight. Periods of rain may become heavy for a while mid-day, 10-20 mm likely, and there may be a few squally showers including hail and thunder as the cold front passes.

TONIGHT ... Very cold with strong westerly winds 70-120 km/hr, passing squally showers of hail turning to snow over inland higher elevations. This activity will be more frequent and intense in western counties but some of the cells will make it to the east coast too. Lows around 1 or 2 C except for a slight freeze in snow-covered areas that develop inland north.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, very windy and cold (feeling very cold in the wind). Highs 5-7 C but temperatures may drop during heavier wintry showers that move across the country. Westerly gales at 70-120 km/hr. Very high swells and waves are predicted for Atlantic coasts. Storm surge issues somewhat mitigated by lunar phase as full moon was last Saturday.

THURSDAY ... Continued windy but turning slightly milder during the day, wintry showers turning to all rain for a time, 5-15 mm likely during the afternoon and evening hours. Wind gusts abating to about 80 km/hr and backing more to south ahead of developing frontal system expected late overnight. Morning lows -1 to +2 C. Highs 7-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Early morning rain and gusty winds, falling temperatures. Sleet or snow is likely to follow accompanied by strong northwest winds. This may accumulate 5-10 cms on higher terrain in Connacht and Ulster and 3-5 cms in some other regions, but for now will say 1-3 cm potential for Dublin, Waterford and Cork -- may be somewhat hit or miss in terms of impacts on roads and general mobility. Temperatures falling from near 5 C to 1-2 C and only recovering slightly if and when the sleet or snow let up. Winds increasing to NW 50-80 km/hr adding more chill.

SATURDAY ... Remaining very cold with further wintry showers and moderate northwest winds backing to westerly 50-70 km/hr. Lows near -4 C and highs around 5 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY are looking somewhat milder in westerly winds of about 50-70 km/hr and passing showers as well as some dry intervals. Highs will recover to about 8-9 C with lows in the 2-4 C range.

FURTHER OUTLOOK is for this roller coaster ride to continue with more rather strong weather fronts moving along in a west to northwest flow, and still with hints of an even colder spell to follow. Would say 22-23 Dec is likely to be fairly unsettled and 24-25 Dec a bit less so in this pattern, but there could actually be some snow around for a change this year (seems like I am always saying mild at Christmas except in 2010 it was late St Stephen's Day). For now will speculate and say mixed wintry showers around, 4-6 C.

This windy and unsettled pattern will hit Scotland and northern England with frequent wintry showers and snow on hills, while Wales and southern England will be somewhat more moderate although with a few quite cold intervals, notably Friday night through Saturday if you have travel plans.

North America continues to see rather mild weather in the west and seasonably cold in the east. A weak coastal storm will bring sleet or rain to the larger cities on the east coast today and Wednesday, snow further inland on hills mainly. My local weather on the other coast was very mild and windy with buckets of rain (about 50 mm at least) and highs near 14 C. This is expected to continue for several days and the freezing level is rising to almost peak elevations of 2500m. Flooding, mudslides etc as a result in some places. Also a very strong chinook warming is developing east of the Rockies.

M.T. Cranium · 10-12-2014 08:27AM

Wednesday, 10 December, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for very strong wind gusts peaking at 130 km/hr in exposed locations, 110 km/hr more generally, and also some hail or wintry showers more prevalent in higher parts of the north and west. This combination could make driving rather treacherous, watch for crosswinds if on north-south routes. Some overtopping of seawalls will be possible around high tides today and swells, waves are massive in the Atlantic.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, very windy and cold (feeling very cold in the wind). Highs 5-7 C but temperatures may drop during heavier wintry showers that move across the country. Westerly gales at 70-110 km/hr for most and 90 to 130 km/hr in exposed parts of north Connacht and west Ulster. Very high swells and waves are predicted for Atlantic coasts. Storm surges around high tides could produce some minor coastal flooding. See alerts for driving impacts.

TONIGHT and THURSDAY ... Continued windy but turning slightly milder during the day, wintry showers turning to all rain for a time, 5-15 mm likely during the afternoon and evening hours. Wind gusts abating to about 80 km/hr and backing more to south ahead of developing frontal system expected late overnight. Morning lows -1 to +2 C. Highs 7-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Early morning rain and gusty winds, falling temperatures. Sleet or snow is likely to follow accompanied by strong northwest winds. This may accumulate 5-10 cms on higher terrain in Connacht and Ulster and 3-5 cms in some other regions, but for now will say 1-3 cm potential for Dublin, Waterford and Cork -- may be somewhat hit or miss in terms of impacts on roads and general mobility. Temperatures falling from near 5 C to 1-2 C and only recovering slightly if and when the sleet or snow let up. Winds increasing to NW 50-80 km/hr adding more chill. The situation is complicated as a narrow wedge of somewhat milder air will be embedded in the system and temperatures and associated precipitation will likely fluctuate from sleet to rain and back to snow.

SATURDAY ... Remaining very cold with further wintry showers and moderate northwest winds backing to westerly 50-70 km/hr. Lows near -4 C and highs around 5 C. Some further 1-3 cm snow accumulations possible in parts of the inland north.

SUNDAY and MONDAY are looking somewhat milder in westerly winds of about 50-70 km/hr and passing showers as well as some dry intervals. Highs will recover to about 8-9 C with lows in the 2-4 C range.

OUTLOOK ... Turning colder again mid-week with mixed wintry showers, highs 4-7 C and moderate to strong northwest winds. More cycles of milder and cold spells of about two days' duration seem likely for a while. The outlook for Christmas is for rather cold and somewhat unsettled weather so there may be some chance of snow at least on higher ground, with highs generally 4-7 C.

The current storm is hitting very hard in Scotland with blizzards raging over higher terrain and pelting hail showers in gale force winds lower down. Conditions will gradually worsen in England and Wales too, although only higher parts of the north seem likely to see much snow today. The Friday into Saturday snow potential will move steadily towards England and travellers by road may find sleet or snow along the routes at least as far as Oxford or the central Midlands.

North America continues to see very mild to warm conditions in the west, and my local weather on Tuesday featured partly cloudy skies and 14 C which felt more like mid-April than December. The east coast by contrast has driving rain and cold northeast winds, with a heavy wet snow likely today over upstate New York and eastern Ontario into southern Quebec.

M.T. Cranium · 11-12-2014 08:22AM

Thursday, 11 December, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for very strong winds should expire soon as the gradient eases but it will remain rather windy all day. ALERT for snowfalls of 3-5 cm in some parts of northern and central inland counties overnight, and renewing with further snowfalls later Friday into Saturday morning.

TODAY ... Although remaining windy, the more violent gusts should calm down soon and by afternoon the wind speeds will be in the 50-80 km/hr range, backing in direction from west to southwest ahead of a complex frontal system that is developing in the wake of the major low crossing Scotland. Wintry mixed showers will continue over higher portions of the north with rain or hail showers elsewhere. An interval of steady rain is likely by late afternoon or evening, and this may begin as sleet or wet snow in the north. Highs today should reach 7 to 9 C but it may feel closer to 3-4 C.

TONIGHT ... Snow may develop away from the milder south coast where the rain will continue. However, coastal fringes all around the country will also be more likely to see rain than snow as temperatures will be somewhat marginal there. Inland, lows could fall to -2 C, around most coasts +2 C, south coast staying milder at 5-7 C. By morning there could be 3-5 cm of snow on the ground in some parts of central and northern counties, but probably somewhat variable by elevation. Icy roads may become hazardous towards morning.

FRIDAY ... Wet snow may change to rain then back to snow, as a somewhat milder sector wedged between two areas of snow moves across the country around mid-day, so the timing will also tend to change snow to rain for a time. Then further accumulating snow may develop, as winds become rather strong again from the northwest to north. Highs could reach 5 C between snowfall periods (7-9 C south coast) but temperatures may fall back to 1-3 C later in the north.

FRIDAY NIGHT and SATURDAY will be bitterly cold with snow showers rather widespread, 2-4 cm accumulations in some northern counties, 1-3 cm inland further south. Hail or rain showers may also fall near Atlantic coasts. Urban areas may see less accumulation too because of marginal temperatures warmed up there slightly, lows near -4 or -5 C inland, -2 to +2 around coasts, then highs 3-6 C as the day progresses. Then a sleety mix turning to rain will sweep in with the approach of warm fronts later in the day, in moderate northwest backing to westerly winds.

SUNDAY and MONDAY should be somewhat milder with occasional rain or showers, highs 7-9 C.

TUESDAY may see a return to wintry showers and strong northwest winds. The highs would be 4-6 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Milder for a few days, if the models have this pattern figured out, but possibly turning colder again towards Christmas Day.

Will update other forecasts tomorrow, my local weather on Wednesday was positively subtropical, heavy rain and 15 C. Nearby Seattle had its warmest December temperature in a century of records, 19 C. It is still pouring after about 50 mm of rain and there are widespread flooding and mudslide reports.

M.T. Cranium · 12-12-2014 08:32AM

Friday, 12 December, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Scattered snow flurries this morning mainly in two areas, west Munster and north Connacht, west Ulster. Other areas could have some locally slippery roads for a while, with drizzle or light falls of wet snow. Temperatures will gradually recover a bit to around 6 C, showers will briefly become mostly rain or hail as they move south. There may be brief sunny intervals in eastern counties.

TONIGHT ... Turning colder in stages with hail or ice pellet showers turning to snow over parts of the north, especially inland and above 100m. Accumulations of 2-5 cm possible. Isolated snow flurries elsewhere could leave a coating by morning, especially on hills, but larger urban areas and coastal districts more likely to remain dry. Lows -2 to -5 C. Watch for icy roads especially in north Leinster, most of Ulster and most of Connacht.

SATURDAY ... Cold with snow showers for part of the morning, little further accumulation, then a few brighter intervals, followed by cloud and rain setting in during the late afternoon or evening. Winds moderate NW backing to WSW at about 50 km/hr. Highs 6 or 7 C likely to be recorded later afternoon.

SUNDAY ... Periods of rain, becoming windy, mild for a while then turning a bit colder again. Lows near 4 C and highs near 8 or 9 C. Moderate to strong westerly winds gusting to 80 km/hr.

MONDAY and TUESDAY look fairly seasonable and showery in a moderate westerly wind.

OUTLOOK ... Midweek it may turn colder again for about two days with mixed wintry showers. The models have begun to show a more settled regime after that, lasting through Christmas, so the latest outlook for the 25th would call for dry, partly cloudy weather with highs near 8 C and slight frosts overnight.

My local weather featured occasional rain, highs near 12 C and strong southerly winds arising in the past few hours, in fact I am sending this off right now as we could lose power here at any moment.

M.T. Cranium · 13-12-2014 09:14AM

Saturday, 13 December, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Watch out for black ice or icy roads in some inland areas all around the country this morning, temperatures will be slow to recover from current values near -2 C in those areas, and a few mixed wintry showers are drifting south in a band that extends from Connacht to east-central Ulster. These could drop 2-4 cm of snow on some higher areas that they traverse this morning but eventually they will either die out or change more to liquid precip as they approach the Dublin area. There may be some sunny intervals in the southeast before cloudy skies develop with a few showers there later. Then the north and west will see the onset of milder and windier conditions with rain developing late afternoon. Winds NNW backing to WSW later on, and increasing to 40-70 km/hr. Highs eventually reaching 6 or 7 C but not until late afternoon or evening.

TONIGHT ... Sleet at times in east Ulster and north Leinster turning more to rain towards morning. Rain elsewhere, drizzle and fog, lows 3-5 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy or windy, showers turning sleety or wintry by afternoon over higher parts of north, highs 8-10 C south, 6-8 C north, but turning colder in most areas by late afternoon. Winds WSW 50-70 km/hr.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will continue showery and rather cool in a westerly flow that will produce highs near 7 or 8 C and morning lows around 2 or 3 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY are currently looking slightly milder, near 10 C with showers or periods of light rain, then a few degrees cooler again towards the weekend of the 20th-21st. The current projections for the Christmas period continue to point towards rather mild and dry conditions with slight frosts at night, 7-9 C daytime, and a bit of sunshine in the mix. I am expecting it to become much more active towards the end of the month and into early January.

My local weather on Friday was very mild and partly sunny, in fact it was so mild that people were walking around without jackets in some cases. High was about 13 C. This evening we were treated to the rising of a half moon lying almost on its side, I suppose from that we can see that we are very close to our own winter solstice.

M.T. Cranium · 14-12-2014 08:31AM

Sunday, 14 December, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Showers or periods of rain (10-15 mm) followed by partly cloudy skies, gusty SW to W winds at 50-80 km/hr, highs 9-11 C. A few showers will then develop later afternoon and it will turn slightly colder.

TONIGHT ... Partly to mostly cloudy, a few showers, some turning wintry over higher terrain in north, lows -1 to +3 C. Icy roads may be a problem in a few areas by morning.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, a few showers, remaining rather cool with highs 6-8 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain at times, windy, highs near 10 C. About 15-20 mm rain is possible, and wind gusts to 80 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will be seasonable and mostly dry with just a few isolated showers. Highs around 8 C and morning lows around 2 C.

FRIDAY is likely to turn a bit colder in stronger westerly winds, squally showers developing. Highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Back to rather bland weather for a few days before Christmas, but could turn windy around late 23rd into Christmas Eve, and colder with mixed wintry showers possible. The models then diverge as to whether this colder spell will dig in and draw on much colder air, or require another cycle or two of the parade of weak Atlantic systems. As mentioned yesterday, I would look for some much more active weather patterns around the end of this month and into early January. In my research, the period 4-8 January is favoured for stormy conditions.

Conditions in Britain will be similar, throughout this period, and generally rather bland for this time of year. In North America, a notable warm spell is coming to an end over the west-central states and a wintry mix of rain and snow is developing. The warmer air is being suppressed into the southern tier of states. The west coast is turning slightly cooler although still above normal, and my local weather on Saturday was partly cloudy with a high near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 15-12-2014 08:02AM

Monday, 15 December, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy and rather cold with passing showers, some of them mixed on higher ground. Amounts will be generally small and some parts of Leinster and east Munster could remain dry. Highs 7-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Cold and frosty early in parts of the northeast, but then cloudy and turning milder, as will be the case from evening onward in the south and west ... winds increasing from southwest before dawn, rain in parts of the west by morning. Lows -1 to +3 C northeast, to 3-7 C south and west.

TUESDAY ... Moderate southwest winds, periods of rain (10-15 mm), mild with highs about 11-13 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY are looking partly to mostly cloudy with a few isolated showers but not overly unsettled, lows near 3 C and highs near 9 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will turn a bit colder with strong westerly winds in parts of the north, highs near 7 C. Mixed wintry showers could develop at times on higher ground.

OUTLOOK ... The rather bland weather pattern will continue until after Christmas according to most guidance and the holiday weather should be reasonably good for travel, if any rain occurs it should be relatively brief in duration and light, and there could be some dry intervals with near normal temperatures. After about the 27th the weather pattern seems likely to intensify towards a more stormy episode again, which may culminate with severe storms on either side of New Years (4-8 Jan expected to be a peak for storm intensity).

At some point now to 26th I may take a few days off, especially if the immediate weather is not looking too disruptive.

Our local weather on Sunday was mild and mostly sunny once a slight frost dissipated. Lows of about -2 C and highs near 9 C.

M.T. Cranium · 16-12-2014 08:25AM

Tuesday, 16 December, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Turning milder in stages with periods of rain developing (10-15 mm likely) and temperatures continually rising, peaking by this evening at around 11-13 C. Mid-day readings will be 7-9 C. Winds increasing to moderate southwesterly 50-80 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Rain tapering to drizzle, mild especially first half of the night, temperatures falling back slowly to around 6 or 7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy, light rain at times or drizzle, moderate westerly winds and highs near 10 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated showers, lows 2-4 C and highs 8-10 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are likely to become slightly more windy and unsettled with highs around 8 C.

From Monday to Christmas Day, rather unsettled at times in a moderate to strong westerly flow, rather cold by recent standards with highs 6-8 C and the chance of some wintry showers on hills if not at lower elevations. The pattern seems to be slowly gearing up for a major stormy interval closer to New Years and lasting into the first week of January.

My local weather on Monday was overcast after a frosty start. The cloud kept it feeling quite cold and the high was only about 6 or 7 C. Light rain or drizzle is edging in from the west tonight.

M.T. Cranium · 17-12-2014 08:41AM

Wednesday, 17 December, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

The leading European model has just made a dramatic shift towards extreme winter conditions on its maps for the period late Christmas Day to 27th and beyond -- other models are trending somewhat vaguely in that general direction too -- it is yet too early to be definitive but we all need to be on high alert if this trend continues in later model runs today and tomorrow.

TODAY ... Continuing very mild with occasional light rain, also a few brighter intervals. Highs near 12 C with moderate westerly winds at times.

TONIGHT ... Slightly cooler with passing showers, lows 3-5 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers that may become increasingly wintry over higher parts of the north. Highs 7-9 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are likely to be somewhat colder than normal at 5-7 C with mixed wintry showers over parts of the north, moderate westerly to northwesterly winds, and overnight lows in the range of -2 to +2 C. Nothing too extreme is anticipated here and this is not the major shift referred to above.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will then revert to the current weather type, mild, cloudy with light rain, temperatures generally steady 9-12 C.

TUESDAY 23rd and WEDNESDAY 24th are indicated to be colder in stages with showers becoming somewhat more mixed at first then wintry over higher terrain, highs around 7 or 8 C.

CHRISTMAS DAY into ST STEPHEN'S DAY -- The latest output from the leading European model shows extreme wintry weather sweeping into Ireland from the northwest behind a rapidly deepening low. If correct, this would bring strong winds and a rapid shift from rain to snow. Temperatures would be likely to start out around 5 or 6 C and then slide down towards -2 C by the 26th and 27th with colder readings possible if snow cover develops. Wind gusts to at least 90 km/hr are possible from west to northwest once the system moves across Ireland (no strong winds are indicated ahead of it in the mild sector).

It is difficult to assess the confidence level on this outcome, other models would indicate a more restrained colder trend with some snow and moderate winds. And I think we all know that these scenarios can be withdrawn as there are still eight days to go until this change begins, and ten days to its deepest phase. I will say my own confidence in it is moderate and not yet high (no ironic remarks, please).

With all that said, the trends over Britain now to 25th are similar. They would also see this sudden change to severe wintry weather but setting in somewhat later in the early morning of the 26th. For that reason, I would be cautious about placing white Christmas bets given the parameters, Belfast and Glasgow might be much better bets than other locations which might see their snow arriving too late even if all this is entirely correct.

Over North America, a rather bland pattern continues with not much happening apart from some freezing rain around Ottawa and Montreal as the mild spell further south tries to push north against a weak arctic high in Quebec. My local weather on the west coast on Tuesday was overcast with very light rain at times, and feeling rather cold at 7 C.

So, watch for updates, I may comment on the 12z model runs around 1800h. You can pretty much expect a very active discussion starting up on the other forum threads related to winter and snow. Bottom line is, this looks plausible but could prove to be maybe a day to a week premature.

M.T. Cranium · 17-12-2014 08:41AM

Wednesday, 17 December, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

The leading European model has just made a dramatic shift towards extreme winter conditions on its maps for the period late Christmas Day to 27th and beyond -- other models are trending somewhat vaguely in that general direction too -- it is yet too early to be definitive but we all need to be on high alert if this trend continues in later model runs today and tomorrow.

TODAY ... Continuing very mild with occasional light rain, also a few brighter intervals. Highs near 12 C with moderate westerly winds at times.

TONIGHT ... Slightly cooler with passing showers, lows 3-5 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers that may become increasingly wintry over higher parts of the north. Highs 7-9 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are likely to be somewhat colder than normal at 5-7 C with mixed wintry showers over parts of the north, moderate westerly to northwesterly winds, and overnight lows in the range of -2 to +2 C. Nothing too extreme is anticipated here and this is not the major shift referred to above.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will then revert to the current weather type, mild, cloudy with light rain, temperatures generally steady 9-12 C.

TUESDAY 23rd and WEDNESDAY 24th are indicated to be colder in stages with showers becoming somewhat more mixed at first then wintry over higher terrain, highs around 7 or 8 C.

CHRISTMAS DAY into ST STEPHEN'S DAY -- The latest output from the leading European model shows extreme wintry weather sweeping into Ireland from the northwest behind a rapidly deepening low. If correct, this would bring strong winds and a rapid shift from rain to snow. Temperatures would be likely to start out around 5 or 6 C and then slide down towards -2 C by the 26th and 27th with colder readings possible if snow cover develops. Wind gusts to at least 90 km/hr are possible from west to northwest once the system moves across Ireland (no strong winds are indicated ahead of it in the mild sector).

It is difficult to assess the confidence level on this outcome, other models would indicate a more restrained colder trend with some snow and moderate winds. And I think we all know that these scenarios can be withdrawn as there are still eight days to go until this change begins, and ten days to its deepest phase. I will say my own confidence in it is moderate and not yet high (no ironic remarks, please).

With all that said, the trends over Britain now to 25th are similar. They would also see this sudden change to severe wintry weather but setting in somewhat later in the early morning of the 26th. For that reason, I would be cautious about placing white Christmas bets given the parameters, Belfast and Glasgow might be much better bets than other locations which might see their snow arriving too late even if all this is entirely correct.

Over North America, a rather bland pattern continues with not much happening apart from some freezing rain around Ottawa and Montreal as the mild spell further south tries to push north against a weak arctic high in Quebec. My local weather on the west coast on Tuesday was overcast with very light rain at times, and feeling rather cold at 7 C.

So, watch for updates, I may comment on the 12z model runs around 1800h. You can pretty much expect a very active discussion starting up on the other forum threads related to winter and snow. Bottom line is, this looks plausible but could prove to be maybe a day to a week premature.

M.T. Cranium · 17-12-2014 08:12PM

UPDATE _ Wed 17 Dec 2014 at 7:15 pm
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High alert maintained for wintry outbreak late 25th onward, as North American based models continue to show strong development of cold northerly surge while European model has retreated somewhat from last night's position, but I would prefer to compare next run to that one. Also note that because this pattern change is mainly based on developments over northeastern Canada and Greenland, the North American models might be relatively more plausible when compared to the European model(s) than is sometimes the case for European forecasting.

In any event, all scenarios trend towards winter weather developing at some point shortly after Christmas and it seems inevitable that with such a strong massing of arctic air over the far northern Atlantic and a dropping jet stream, it's mainly a question of when rather than if this will come to pass. Any delay would simply load the potential for severe storminess early in January when energy levels reach a peak.

Anyway, the next forecast will be issued around 0730h with a full look at the updated guidance.

M.T. Cranium · 18-12-2014 08:15AM

Thursday, 18 December, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

No consensus yet on the potential for wintry weather in the days after Christmas, although some of the guidance continues to show potential for snow and freezing temperatures. The weather on Christmas Day itself looks relatively settled and chilly although not quite as cold as what might follow.

TODAY ... Gradually turning a bit colder especially in northern areas, outbreaks of light rain, and moderate westerly winds at 50-80 km/hr. Highs about 12 or 13 C in southern counties, 10-11 C central and 8-9 C north. Further rainfalls about 5 mm.

TONIGHT ... Breezy to windy and somewhat colder again, lows 3-5 C. Passing showers could begin to mix on higher ground by early morning.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will be rather cold with passing showers that become sleety or wintry on higher ground. Some bright sunny intervals also. Lows generally 2-4 C and highs 7-9 C. Moderate westerly winds 50-70 km/hr.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will see a return to very mild and cloudy weather with light rain or drizzle and temperatures steady in the range of 9 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY (24th) will become colder with strong westerly winds at times, passing showers becoming mixed on northern hills, highs about 6 to 8 C.

CHRISTMAS DAY looks like a rather settled, cold day with morning temperatures close to freezing and daytime highs of 5 to 7 C. There may be more cloud than sunshine but not very much if any precipitation. Any that does develop could be mixed showers over northern counties at least.

From 26th to 28th there is too much of a range in the available guidance to say much more than this -- be alert for the possibility of wintry weather and even rather severe snow and cold in this period, but we cannot yet rule out a variety of weather including brief snowfalls changing to rain and back to snow, or just a dry cold with local snow flurries near Atlantic coasts. There is one model showing a heavy snowfall event on the 27th. It now appears that the most active weather would be 27th-28th more so than St Stephen's Day, but these trends are not too reliable yet.

I hope we can be more definite by the weekend on this important weather period, but still waiting for a better consensus to develop. I continue to think that a significant wintry outbreak is inevitable within the next two weeks given the large-scale pattern changes underway.

My local weather was cloudy with occasional light rain, high of about 8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 19-12-2014 08:40AM

Friday, 19 December, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Almost all of the guidance went off the cold path earlier but the European model has just vetoed that idea for the time being. While most other models caved in and allowed a low from west of Bermuda to make steady progress north towards Iceland and cut off the cold air, the European model has cast its vote for a track towards Munster which would lead to a winter storm scenario around the 28th into the 29th after a rather chilly but dry holiday period. As the two outcomes are vastly different after about mid-day 26th, I have one unified forecast to that date, then a take-your-pick set of possibilities from then on. We may not know until about Sunday which of these will actually verify.

TODAY ... Windy and quite cold with passing showers, some of which may contain hail and (over higher ground only) snow. Wind gusts from WNW to 100 km/hr in exposed northern and western areas, 80 km/hr east and south coasts, 60 km/hr less open areas inland. Feeling quite cold in that wind as highs reach about 7 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, passing mixed wintry showers, frost in a few spots and icy roads possible inland north. Lows -2 to +3 C.

SATURDAY ... Not quite as cold, breezy, passing showers or a period of light rain, highs near 8 or 9 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will become very mild with occasional light rain, moderate southwest winds and highs 10-12 C, nights also very mild, some fog and mist.

TUESDAY will turn colder in stages, around 9-10 C morning, 6-8 C afternoon, with a few showers and moderate westerly winds.

WEDNESDAY (24th) will then be colder, mostly dry but with some passing mixed wintry showers possible in north. Frosty by evening (Christmas Eve), but the lows earlier will be about 2 C, the highs near 6 C.

THURSDAY (Christmas Day) will likely be cold and dry with a bit of wintry sunshine as well as scattered morning frost and ice fog, a few lucky locations could see a brief and light snow flurry (most likely around Donegal Bay). Lows near -3 C and highs near 5 or 6 C.

ST STEPHEN's DAY (26th) seems likely to continue rather cold and dry, although some guidance suggests it will turn steadily milder. If that happens there could be some late rain, if it stays cold, some occasional sleet or snow. Highs in the cold scenario would be 3-5 C and in the milder one about 9 C. (my estimate is that these outcomes are about equally likely so take your pick or an average)

Around the 27th to 29th, either it turns quite mild with occasional rain and highs near 10 C, or a winter storm develops and heavy sleet south, snow central and north, are quite possible. As I stated in the headline, we won't really know which of these horses to back until perhaps Sunday. This is no doubt why Met-E have decided not to cast their vote as they can't (as easily) give out two options as your distant friend, hidden away in the wilds of a foreign land, might choose to do. These same two options would apply to most of Britain although chances of the very cold air and winter storm conditions reaching the south are less likely even on the European model. North America continues to experience generally mild and bland weather with snow hard to find, but a major storm will develop just before Christmas in the Great Lakes region. It is the future of that storm that holds the key to developments downstream in the Atlantic and therefore in Ireland. If it circles back too far as shown on the GFS model, it would leave too much space for another storm to develop near Bermuda. If it moves too far east as shown on other models, it would pick up that storm and bring it east. But if it holds to more of a northeast drift towards west Greenland, then it pushes the Greenland high east and forces the Atlantic storm to head on a more southerly track that allows cold air to reach Ireland before it does. This is what we're going to have to watch and see which guidance is correct. But you can probably rely on the pattern to Christmas Day at this point, the uncertainty grows rapidly after the big day.

My local weather on Thursday was more of the same drab cloud and light rain with a high of about 9 C. Rather foggy at times.

M.T. Cranium · 19-12-2014 10:09PM

UPDATE _ Friday 19 Dec 2014 _ 9:10 p.m.
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The situation from now to about Christmas Day seems fairly certain and should follow the general trends of forecasts. Beyond that, model confusion has actually intensified and has reached almost unprecedented proportions. It is not even clear whether any of the models have the right forecast solution, or if something not shown on any of them might actually happen from 26th to 29th.

To summarize, the European model currently has given up on the cold spell for now but some of its background guidance still gives it some credence. So there are indications on that model of a rather fast warming trend after the cold, dry weather over Christmas and early part of the 26th. Some rain could fall in that scenario although it looks like a dry warming trend in the south.

But the competing GFS model shows only a brief warmup if any around the 27th to be followed by very strong winds and rapidly falling temperatures, no doubt a certain amount of snow in western regions and several days of bitterly cold weather to follow. A third model that I like to watch, the GEM, takes a middle course with cold, dry weather remaining dominant once it sets in over Christmas, and only minor disturbances in a northwest to northerly flow. In that variant, I would estimate chances of snow to be 10-30 per cent and likely temperatures close to freezing daytime and -7 C to -4 C at night.

But it's not just a choice among these three, other models have other ideas, and with this much spread in guidance, you can construct your own hunchcast from the basic building blocks. Here's what I think might be the most likely outcome... cold air builds in over Christmas and St Stephen's Day, it remains dry and frosty, then winds back into the northeast and a storm track develops to the south of Ireland for a few days. There would be a freeze for four to six days and several outbreaks of snow from both streamers coming in from the east and from weak disturbances moving across the south (or perhaps not so weak). But I want to stress that this is just my own idea of what could develop. The variables are very complex and arise from slow-moving systems a long way from Ireland. It is about as simple as predicting where a good football team will be in possession of the ball five minutes from what you're seeing on television. In other words, the various high-powered computer models might be little more than white noise at this point, in fact all but one pretty much have to be, there is no real agreement among them at present.

M.T. Cranium · 20-12-2014 08:39AM

Saturday, 20 December, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Guidance continues to be very inconclusive about the details beyond Christmas Day. I have decided to follow a middle course so there will be some mention of cold weather and snow in the outlook period but confidence is moderate rather than high at this early stage.

TODAY ... Breezy and rather cold although slightly milder than yesterday, with any bright intervals fading to mostly cloudy skies, outbreaks of light rain, and moderate westerly winds. Highs near 9 C.

TONIGHT ... Occasional light rain, milder than previous two nights, lows about 6 or 7 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will see another very mild spell night and day with temperatures steady around 10 to 12 C in moderate southwest winds. There will be occasional rain but amounts won't be too heavy, 10-15 mm on average.

TUESDAY will continue rather mild but it will turn slightly cooler by afternoon and evening, morning lows near 5 C and afternoon highs 8-10 C. A few showers will come and go.

WEDNESDAY (Christmas Eve) will be partly cloudy and rather cold with light mixed wintry showers developing, some snow could fall on high ground, and highs will be near 5 C. By midnight it could be close to -1 C with a frost developing.

THURSDAY (Christmas Day) will be partly sunny aside from some morning ice fog and daytime isolated showers of hail or snow. Most places will likely stay dry. Morning lows near -3 C and afternoon highs 4-7 C.

FRIDAY (St Stephen's Day) is more likely to turn a bit milder after a very cold start, and that could lead to some light sleet or rain. Here's where the guidance starts to become very inconclusive, but I'll say for now expect some rise in temperature from morning lows around -3 to -5 C, to afternoon readings about 6-8 C.

OUTLOOK ... If there is to be any mild weather following this Christmas cold snap, it would take place around the 27th but the storm responsible for that possible mild day could track across Ireland and divide the country into a mild and rainy south and chilly north with a wintry mix. Then all of that could easily turn to snow, if not by late 27th, then more likely 28th into 29th, as much colder air is most likely to arrive then from the north. The onset of this cold could be fairly abrupt with rapidly falling temperatures and near-blizzard conditions possible in some onshore flows (whether from northwest, north or northeast yet to be nailed down). If there is going to be significant disruption in travel it would be most likely later 27th into 29th. And this applies even more to Britain where the storm could be more intense.

Bear in mind, the range of possible outcomes remains high and there's about a 30% chance of no really strong wintry outbreak, against a 20% chance of no mild air making it in at all. That leaves the transitional outcomes in the middle with a 50% likelihood, so would assume that outcome more likely.

Some details of what could happen in Britain with the intense later stages of the developing storm (27th) -- very strong winds, mixed rain and snow turning to snow and blizzards in parts of northern England, Scotland and north Wales, possibly even in Cornwall and Devon (from northwest). But this storm is not yet a done deal, there may be less intense wintry impacts.

Any cold spell that develops would likely fade out slowly as high pressure masses over the country around New Years, and milder temperatures would arrive gradually around 2-3 January for a brief period before an intense storm would likely develop in the Atlantic and possibly make a direct hit around 5th or 6th of January (and we all know that's no time to be getting a storm). :eek:

The situation over North America remains generally bland and rather boring in meteorological terms for the time being but an intense storm will develop next week and will bring strong winds and lake effect blizzards to parts of the Great Lakes region, strong winds and a sharp temperature drop with thunderstorms for the east coast cities on Christmas Day. This low will drift north into Hudson Bay and become surrounded by a vast swirl of very cold air with the storm track then dropping much further south. The west will remain mild to about Christmas Eve and turn colder when arctic air sets up over Alberta and Montana for a few days, ending what has been a long spell of abnormally mild weather in most of the mountain and coastal regions. ... My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy to start then overcast with light rain, highs near 10.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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