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The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

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    #902
    screamer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭screamer


    I agree that no one can predict the exact weather Droidman, but MT's forecasts/ predicitions tend to be more accurate than what the MET put out. Sometimes, they tell you tomorrow will be mild, wet and windy, then they do a retrospective look at "todays" weather, (which they predicted yesterday) and it was cold and dry.

    Snow is particularly difficult to predict, and up to now, the indications have been for no real cold in December, so this is a definite better trend for the snow bunnies amongst us (of which I am one).

    Once again, I have to thank MT Cranium, he posts here regularly with weather predictions, he is dedicated to the forum and he gets nothing out of it except thanks from some of us.


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    #903
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Just an FYI no-one predicted 2010 events 3 months out.

    Long range forecasting can suggest trends that *MAY* happen, as long as you know that when you read one there is no problem. The problem arises when someone sees a long reached forecast and takes it as gospel.

    With regards to cold and snow we can very often struggle to forecast it accurately at 48hrs.


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    #904
    snaps
    Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    Kaliyah Chilly Orange wrote: »
    Same in Slovakia. Only snow on high mountains.
    I remember flying over in 2008 to Krakow and it being 13 degrees in January. I was in shirt sleeves.
    My now father in law apologised for having no snow :)

    I'm right on Slovakian border. Not far from the tatra mountains.


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    #905
    Red Pepper
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,567 ✭✭✭Red Pepper


    screamer wrote: »
    Once again, I have to thank MT Cranium, he posts here regularly with weather predictions, he is dedicated to the forum and he gets nothing out of it except thanks from some of us.

    Absolutely but when people are slagging other long range forecasters (e.g Ken Ring), let's not forget despite the Boards Weather adoration that MT gets, he is often wrong as well.


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    #906
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Red Pepper wrote: »
    Absolutely but when people are slagging other long range forecasters (e.g Ken Ring), let's not forget despite the Boards Weather adoration that MT gets, he is often wrong as well.

    Personally, I don't have a problem with weather enthusiasts having a bit of fun and making long range forecasts, it's harmless fun to test their own personal theories or whatever. The problem I have is with those "forecasters" with private websites who are only interesting in reeling gullible people into their advert-laden and "premium content" riddled websites with no purpose only to generate money from that gullibility. And what may be even worse is that the tabloid press in the UK and Ireland is only too happy to provide free advertising for these types, and of course these articles call these charlatans and jokers "forecasters" which then gives professional forecasters (and genuine hobbyists who just like to make long range forecasts for fun and not for money), a very bad name.


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    #907
    snaps
    Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    Some pics from a walk this morning around our land. Current temp -8c (13.00) Approx 650m asl.

    330073.jpg

    330072.jpg

    330071.jpg

    330070.jpg

    330069.jpg


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    #908
    HighLine
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,378 ✭✭✭HighLine


    Great pics Snaps... very jealous.


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    #909
    Jude13
    Registered Users Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭Jude13


    Amazing pictures.


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    #910
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,343 ✭✭✭esposito


    I'm gonna stick my neck out and make a bold prediction that from Dec 28th - Jan 4th we will get our first significant fall of snow. Yes, it will be a cold New Year for a change.:pac:


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    #911
    snaps
    Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    HighLine wrote: »
    Great pics Snaps... very jealous.

    Sometimes i feel lucky where we live now. The climate is very good, Warm sunny summers but winter can be harsh but I dont miss the winters the west of Ireland threw at me! I am extremely rual though, our nearest neighbours are 800m away! We have a lot of land, some land we have is around 900m asl. The land its on is part of the Beskidy mountains that run from Czech rep through southern Poland into Slovakia and I think Ukraine. The high Polish Alps "Tatras" are about 35km to my south east. Slovakian border is approx 10kms.

    I really do get homesick sometimes, as i miss the west of Ireland. I married a Polish lass!


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    #912
    droidman123
    Registered Users Posts: 5,409 ✭✭✭droidman123


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Personally, I don't have a problem with weather enthusiasts having a bit of fun and making long range forecasts, it's harmless fun to test their own personal theories or whatever. The problem I have is with those "forecasters" with private websites who are only interesting in reeling gullible people into their advert-laden and "premium content" riddled websites with no purpose only to generate money from that gullibility. And what may be even worse is that the tabloid press in the UK and Ireland is only too happy to provide free advertising for these types, and of course these articles call these charlatans and jokers "forecasters" which then gives professional forecasters (and genuine hobbyists who just like to make long range forecasts for fun and not for money), a very bad name.
    I agree totally with you about the ken rings,James maddens,etc.I know they are only money making rackets,but the point is, apart from their reasons for long range weather forecasters,there's no difference in them and anyone else long ranging Ireland's weather forecast because it simply can't be done.I admire mt cranium and any other weather enthusiasts.it seems to be a very interesting hobby and I certainly never meant to have a pop at any of them.I just don't wear rose tinted glasses when reading anyone's long range weather forecast for Ireland,I honestly don't see the point. As I said earlier,I love a bit of snow,especially at Christmas time,but it gets tiresome when people print charts and say things like "things could get interesting for Ireland in 10 days or 2 weeks from now". The fact is its not " interesting" because its all mystic Meg stuff.science doesn't come into it in any way shape or form because their is no science available yet that can long range Ireland's weather forecast.


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    #913
    Timistry
    Registered Users Posts: 742 ✭✭✭Timistry


    snow porn right there!


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    #914
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,647 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    i recall the uk met office predicting a very cold outbreak three weeks before it happened in 2010- their monthly update at the time was quite confident about it, when usually they would be cautious.
    mt, i recall, predicted it in advance too. these people do get it wrong, but this narrative that it is impossible to ever predict the weather accurately beyond three days is misleading. however that is not to say their predictions can often be wrong, especially when it comes to cold weather, as little local features, like shortwaves, can direct the cold elsewhere. mt has been wrong sometimes, so it's true he is not a deity to be revered:P) but it would be showing a bit more balance to acknowledge that he does get it right sometimes.


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    #915
    MadDog76
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,162 ✭✭✭MadDog76


    vicwatson wrote: »
    Buffalo, New York :P

    Where it belongs .......... it's not welcome over here!! :P


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    #916
    Nabber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Some nice pics there snaps.

    Some nice back and forwards from Droidman and Maq.

    Read MTs forecst, my understanding is MT basis his predictions on moon cycles as a predominant factor in his predictions?
    I like his forecasts, I also like that I can choose to agree or disagree.

    I think we here in Ireland for the most part stay snow free more often than any other part of the planet at this latitude.

    Good look predicting snow here. It's hard predicting snow here 3-4 hours before a event ;)

    To all predicters, keep up the good work. Pioneering takes time and a phenomenal amount of mistakes....

    Snaps thanks again, 79 thanks, just shows people want weathet not debates


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    #917
    BuilderPlumber
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,378 ✭✭✭BuilderPlumber


    Villain wrote: »
    Just an FYI no-one predicted 2010 events 3 months out.

    Long range forecasting can suggest trends that *MAY* happen, as long as you know that when you read one there is no problem. The problem arises when someone sees a long reached forecast and takes it as gospel.

    With regards to cold and snow we can very often struggle to forecast it accurately at 48hrs.

    I recall no one predicted that 2010 snow event even the day before it happened! A few snow showers was all was forecast. Instead, it lasted a period stretching from 27th November right up to St Stephen's Day. The only white Christmas I remember and definitely not one of the better Christmases I have had to be honest.

    Snow featured a lot in 2009 and 2010 for some reason. There was snow at both the start and end of both years. From 2011 to 2013, the weather reverted back to normality. The 2013/14 winter then was full of violent hurricanes the worst since 1997/98. I hope we get neither bad snow or bad wind this year. The snow came early and the wind came late in 2010 and 2013/14 respectively. Bad weather out of season (eg. snow in Novemner (usually more common late December/January) and wind in February (usually more prominent from October to December)) tends to come on very extreme and it shows the weather is messed up. 1997, 2010 and late 2013/early 2014 were among the worst years I remember.


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    #918
    ch750536
    Registered Users Posts: 3,736 ✭✭✭ch750536


    Scrappychimow wrote: »
    I predict alot of snow this winter- starting in November.

    Time beat ya OP, time beat ya.


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    #919
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,726 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    BuilderPlumber wrote: »
    I recall no one predicted that 2010 snow event even the day before it happened!

    Maybe you didn't look the day before it happened?


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    #920
    Tabnabs
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,695 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    Two magical words uttered on the 07.55 forecast on RTE Radio 1 this morning - 'light dusting'. Wicklow mountains in for a wintery few days later in the week.


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    #921
    davidsr20
    Registered Users Posts: 768 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    MadDog76 wrote: »
    Where it belongs .......... it's not welcome over here!! :P

    Ok can I ask why there are so many snow haters looking at a snow tread?


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    #922
    Missymoohaa
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,737 ✭✭✭Missymoohaa


    davidsr20 wrote: »
    Ok can I ask why there are so many snow haters looking at a snow tread?

    Yes agree and if you hate snow, fine but can you guys not start your own thread and leave this one for the snow bunnies, perhaps. :D


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    #923
    Lucreto
    Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    The cold weather is always just out of reach. It is a high of 3C in Amsterdam today.


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    #924
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,726 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Lucreto wrote: »
    The cold weather is always just out of reach. It is a high of 3C in Amsterdam today.

    Only the first day of winter...loooong way to go yet! :)

    In the olden days - i.e. pre 2010 - I remember I wouldn't even bother looking at charts until after Christmas!


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    #925
    Tabnabs
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,695 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    Lucreto wrote: »
    The cold weather is always just out of reach. It is a high of 3C in Amsterdam today.

    Just out of reach, by three days...
    Thursday will be another cold, foggy day with little or no lifting of the fog in places through to afternoon. The wind will pick up on Thursday night, becoming moderate northerly from the northwest in the evening. The increasing wind will be accompanied by increasing cloud too, with outbreaks of rain in the northwest on Thursday night. It'll be another cold night with sub zero temperatures so there is a chance that precipitation could turn wintry over the mountains.


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    #926
    omicron
    Registered Users Posts: 818 ✭✭✭omicron


    Lucreto wrote: »
    The cold weather is always just out of reach. It is a high of 3C in Amsterdam today.

    Inland ares will be averaging 1-2C for most of this week (highs around 6, lows around -3), hardly an Indian summer now is it.


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    #927
    Patty O Furniture
    Registered Users Posts: 5,133 ✭✭✭Patty O Furniture


    Reports are that it maybe a White Christmas especially for the Northwest & down the East, i heard it on TodayFM news this morning.

    Hasn't snowed here since 2010.


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    #928
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,726 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Patty O Furniture wrote: »
    Reports are that it maybe a White Christmas especially for the Northwest & down the East, i heard it on TodayFM news this morning.

    :confused:
    Patty O Furniture wrote: »
    Hasn't snowed here since 2010.

    :confused:


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    #929
    Eye in the sky
    Registered Users Posts: 3 ✭Eye in the sky


    Amazing pics.... very pretty


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    #930
    budweiser6
    Registered Users Posts: 74 ✭✭budweiser6


    davidsr20 wrote: »
    Ok can I ask why there are so many snow haters looking at a snow tread?

    Absolutely agree with you - I'm a lurker for years but must say there is a different atmosphere on here lately which is a pity .. I normally absolutely love the build up which could go on for weeks on end and yes there is dissapointment however there is some seriously talented amateur forecasters who post here which the forum would be all the worse for if we didn't have them. Yes... alot of the time people are looking at models in FI but so what if it doesn't come true this is for snow enthusiasts like myself and just want some... well... hope!

    Thanks to all of you... I still know jack about reading models in all this time but the discussions are always brilliant!


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    #931
    Calibos
    Registered Users Posts: 7,796 ✭✭✭Calibos


    Patty O Furniture wrote: »
    Reports are that it maybe a White Christmas especially for the Northwest & down the East, i heard it on TodayFM news this morning.

    Hasn't snowed here since 2010.

    That was just Today FM repeating a piece in the Star Newspaper today quoting guess who.....James 'Mad' Madden. Put no stock in it whatsoever in other words. Madden forecasts snowy Winters every single year to drive traffic to his pay site.


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