The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

screamer

Hooray! thanks MT Cranium, I trust your forecasts above even the met service, looks good for a few snow days....

amdgilmore

screamer wrote: »

I trust your forecasts above even the met service

Are they guessing the weather four months ahead now?

HighLine

screamer wrote: »

Hooray! thanks MT Cranium, I trust your forecasts above even the met service, looks good for a few snow days....

Not meaning to cause offence but he already got November wrong. Sooner the better people get it into their heads that long range "forecasting" is not possible.

derekon

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Some revisions to my seasonal outlook, although less so for Ireland than for Britain if anyone reads what I posted on net-weather, this is how I see things now for Ireland. Main change is a colder average, retaining the idea of high variability.

DEC -- Gradual change to much colder weather with a wintry episode likely mid-month, some snow seems likely at times in middle third of month. Milder trend towards Christmas after a possible mixed precip event around 22nd. Mildest at each end of the month, mean temperature around 3 C, 2 below normal. Some freezing daytime temperatures are possible mid-month and severe frosts to about -8 C.

JAN -- Very stormy to start the month, possible severe wind storms, temperatures at first may be mild but a sharp fall likely after the 5th which is where I am expecting a peak in stormy conditions. Severe cold is possible mid-month with heavy snowfall potential especially in Leinster and Ulster. A gradual return to milder conditions likely near the end of the month. Mean temperatures around 2.5 C or about 3 below normal.

FEB -- Cold but settled weather, some snow potential at times near east coast but there could be an east-west divide situation unless this outbreak proves stronger than some previous years where Britain froze but Ireland stayed mild. Expecting at least a modified cold on the order of Feb 2013 and a mean around 3 east to 5 west. This would be more below normal in east.

MAR -- Cold will continue to dominate for the first half then much milder weather will follow. Once again there is some potential for snow at times.

I think this is fairly similar to the earlier outlook except that I am probably looking at a somewhat lower average between the cold and mild variations. I don't foresee unrelenting or unbroken cold as with 1963 for example, but I do think there is some potential for severe cold as in 2010 (or in relative terms in March 2013).

Thanks very much for the update. This can only be good news for cold weather fans in Ireland after the disaster that was winter 2013/2014 in Ireland (for snow lovers anyway ).

Folks, the reason why this update is so important is that MT was bang on the money for the severe cold weather that hit Ireland during late November and most of December, 2010. Now the word "snow" is being mentioned for the months of December, January, February AND March. BANK!

MT, can I ask why you have suddenly changed your forecast to a more colder outlook? Is there something you are now seeing in your research that is driving this? Are we looking at a massive blocking high setting up over either the North Atlantic or Russia?

D

droidman123

I,ve said it before and I,ll say it again...NOBODY can long range Ireland's weather accruratley.its just not possible. The only way experience irelands weather is to go with the flow,possibly 2-3 days ahead.anybody predicting our weather further than that is delusional. This is not a popular opinion on here,but unfortunately its a fact.

derekon

droidman123 wrote: »

I,ve said it before and I,ll say it again...NOBODY can long range Ireland's weather accruratley.its just not possible. The only way experience irelands weather is to go with the flow,possibly 2-3 days ahead.anybody predicting our weather further than that is delusional. This is not a popular opinion on here,but unfortunately its a fact.

With all due respect and if you have any experience over the past 5/6 years with his forecasts, you will realise that MT Cranium is not "NOBODY" .............:D

D

droidman123

derekon wrote: »

With all due respect and if you have any experience over the past 5/6 years with his forecasts, you will realise that MT Cranium is not "NOBODY" .............:D

D

My post was directed at no one in particular,i am just stating facts.I love snow as much as anyone,but I,m a realist

amdgilmore

I'd be willing to bet that if you go through his predictions you'll find him wrong more often than right.

From memory, he seems to predict a couple of 'potential snow events' every year. He had two down for this winter, including, if I'm not mistaken, one in mid-November (vague though that prediction was).

Nothing against the chap, I'm sure he's a nice guy, but he can't predict the weather with any more accuracy than you or the Donegal postman or anybody else.

derekon

droidman123 wrote: »

My post was directed at no one in particular,i am just stating facts.I love snow as much as anyone,but I,m a realist

Fair point. In any case, MT has a very strong track record in respect of LRFs (the best I have seen on here, hands down).

All I know is that already we had 3 frosts last week (and winter does not start until this Monday) - I think that is more than all of last winter! The coming months should be fascinating for coldies. I hope you enjoy the ride droidman123 and it will be interesting to see if MT's forecast pans out...:D

Nice to chat to you

D

droidman123

amdgilmore wrote: »

I'd be willing to bet that if you go through his predictions you'll find him wrong more often than right.

From memory, he seems to predict a couple of 'potential snow events' every year. He had two down for this winter, including, if I'm not mistaken, one in mid-November (vague though that prediction was).

Nothing against the chap, I'm sure he's a nice guy, but he can't predict the weather with any more accuracy than you or the Donegal postman or anybody else.

To be fair its not only his predictions,there's tons of people that think they can predict Ireland's weather weeks or months ahead,but it just can't be done and I think anyone that follows weather trends would agree with this.

maquiladora

droidman123 wrote: »

To be fair its not only his predictions,there's tons of people that think they can predict Ireland's weather weeks or months ahead,but it just can't be done and I think anyone that follows weather trends would agree with this.

If you mean stuff like "it will rain in this part of Ireland on this day, X months from now", then I agree, that's not something that can be done with current technology and understanding of science. But what is possible is to use science to look at probabilities for certain weather patterns at longer ranges.
Look at sudden stratospheric warmings for example. We can see those start to appear on the computer models about 7 or 10 days in advance, usually at that range they are pretty much a lock to happen. Then you have to add on 2-3 weeks of lag for the warming to downwell from the top of the stratosphere to the troposphere. That doesn't always happen, and it doesn't always happen in a way that has an impact on our weather, but it often does.

So while you can't say "it will snow in this part of Ireland on Dec 22nd", it is possible to say something like "there is an increased likelihood of cold weather reaching Ireland around 3-5 weeks from now".

droidman123

maquiladora wrote: »

If you mean stuff like "it will rain in this part of Ireland on this day, X months from now", then I agree, that's not something that can be done with current technology and understanding of science. But what is possible is to use science to look at probabilities for certain weather patterns at longer ranges.
Look at sudden stratospheric warmings for example. We can see those start to appear on the computer models about 7 or 10 days in advance, usually at that range they are pretty much a lock to happen. Then you have to add on 2-3 weeks of lag for the warming to downwell from the top of the stratosphere to the troposphere. That doesn't always happen, and it doesn't always happen in a way that has an impact on our weather, but it often does.

So while you can't say "it will snow in this part of Ireland on Dec 22nd", it is possible to say something like "there is an increased likelihood of cold weather reaching Ireland around 3-5 weeks from now".

Fair enough,but can you take my point that most of it is wishful thinking? I,m no expert on weather prediction but the point I,m making is many people try and fail to predict Ireland's weather. Other geographical places on this fine planet is possible to predict weather wise,but you can have all the gfs charts or all the scientific info you like,but Ireland's location means its nigh on impossible to predict a few days ahead weather wise,i mean reasonably accurartely.would you not agree?

Volvoair

maquiladora wrote: »

If you mean stuff like "it will rain in this part of Ireland on this day, X months from now", then I agree, that's not something that can be done with current technology and understanding of science. But what is possible is to use science to look at probabilities for certain weather patterns at longer ranges.
Look at sudden stratospheric warmings for example. We can see those start to appear on the computer models about 7 or 10 days in advance, usually at that range they are pretty much a lock to happen. Then you have to add on 2-3 weeks of lag for the warming to downwell from the top of the stratosphere to the troposphere. That doesn't always happen, and it doesn't always happen in a way that has an impact on our weather, but it often does.

So while you can't say "it will snow in this part of Ireland on Dec 22nd", it is possible to say something like "there is an increased likelihood of cold weather reaching Ireland around 3-5 weeks from now".

what else would he say ?...its hardly going to be warm sunny days with danger of sunburn ..its winter time. for fecks sake,frost,snow,freezing fog etc is the NORMAL WEATHER for this time of year. why does this seem so difficult for some people to understand.

droidman123

Volvoair wrote: »

what else would he say ?...its hardly going to be warm sunny days with danger of sunburn ..its winter time. for fecks sake,frost,snow,freezing fog etc is the NORMAL WEATHER for this time of year. why does this seem so difficult for some people to understand.

Exactlly!

kittyn

Volvoair wrote: »

what else would he say ?...its hardly going to be warm sunny days with danger of sunburn ..its winter time. for fecks sake,frost,snow,freezing fog etc is the NORMAL WEATHER for this time of year. why does this seem so difficult for some people to understand.[/quote

Snow is not normal winter weather here ........ You are hardly going to get sunburn in winter in Ireland now are you????? Frost happens, freezing fog not so much ...... However if you follow the charts at all there tends to be a trend ...... Do you follow the charts or just being pedantic?

droidman123

kittyn wrote: »

Volvoair wrote: »

what else would he say ?...its hardly going to be warm sunny days with danger of sunburn ..its winter time. for fecks sake,frost,snow,freezing fog etc is the NORMAL WEATHER for this time of year. why does this seem so difficult for some people to understand.[/quote

Snow is not normal winter weather here ........ You are hardly going to get sunburn in winter in Ireland now are you????? Frost happens, freezing fog not so much ...... However if you follow the charts at all there tends to be a trend ...... Do you follow the charts or just being pedantic?

I think you are being pedantic,did you seriously not get what he was saying in his post?

kittyn

droidman123 wrote: »

kittyn wrote: »

I think you are being pedantic,did you seriously not get what he was saying in his post?

I'm not being pedantic, far from it ...... MT is giving his prediction as he sees it that's all. That's from him watching all the various different factors that come into predicting the way the wether may go ......
Nobody can say what the weather will be like on a certain day in a certain city or town never mind IMBY however a trend can show up.

maquiladora

droidman123 wrote: »

Fair enough,but can you take my point that most of it is wishful thinking? I,m no expert on weather prediction but the point I,m making is many people try and fail to predict Ireland's weather. Other geographical places on this fine planet is possible to predict weather wise,but you can have all the gfs charts or all the scientific info you like,but Ireland's location means its nigh on impossible to predict a few days ahead weather wise,i mean reasonably accurartely.would you not agree?

I think that once you go beyond about 5 days then it's a case of looking to see if there is a way to establish the probabilities of broader weather patterns. Anything beyond short range forecasting should not be about absolutes, only probabilities.

droidman123

maquiladora wrote: »

I think that once you go beyond about 5 days then it's a case of looking to see if there is a way to establish the probabilities of broader weather patterns. Anything beyond short range forecasting should not be about absolutes, only probabilities.

With all respect that doesn't answer my original question.

droidman123

kittyn wrote: »

droidman123 wrote: »

I'm not being pedantic, far from it ...... MT is giving his prediction as he sees it that's all. That's from him watching all the various different factors that come into predicting the way the wether may go ......
Nobody can say what the weather will be like on a certain day in a certain city or town never mind IMBY however a trend can show up.

You are saying mt is giving his prediction as he see,s it? Fair enough. I am saying there's tons of people giving there prediction "as they see it". But its not my opinion,its a fact, most of them are wrong most of the time.that includes James madden,mt, the Donegal postman and the wizard of oz et all. If I am wrong I will gladly take any argument on board.

maquiladora

Volvoair wrote: »

what else would he say ?...its hardly going to be warm sunny days with danger of sunburn ..its winter time. for fecks sake,frost,snow,freezing fog etc is the NORMAL WEATHER for this time of year. why does this seem so difficult for some people to understand.

I think you missed my point. In that example, the increased probability of colder weather in that timeframe would be due to a sudden stratospheric warming, not just because "it's winter". A cold stratosphere, with no sign of any warming would lead to a forecast of a reduced probability of cold weather for that same period. Last winter was a good example of that.

maquiladora

droidman123 wrote: »

With all respect that doesn't answer my original question.

I'm not sure what the original question is. I've already said that there's no way to absolutely say what the weather will be like in Ireland beyond about 5 days, but there are ways in which we can use science to say there is an increased or decreased probability for certain general weather patterns beyond that range.

There is nothing new or controversial about that. The UK Met Office puts out a 30 day forecast based on probabilities every day.

droidman123

maquiladora wrote: »

I'm not sure what the original question is. I've already said that there's no way to absolutely say what the weather will be like in Ireland beyond about 5 days, but there are ways in which we can use science to say there is an increased or decreased probability for certain general weather patterns beyond that range.

There is nothing new or controversial about that. The UK Met Office puts out a 30 day forecast based on probabilities every day.

The fact that the UK met office or any other soothsayer puts out "probabilities" is irrelevant. People mock the donegal post man and the James maddens of this world,rightfully or wrongfully.you make the point about scientific predictions, but they are as wrong or as right as the aforementioned people. Probabilites are not accurate forecasts for Ireland,as was my original post. Scientific or Donegal postman or mt cranium or the James maddens or whoever else of this world can not reasonably predict 2-3 days may by 4-5 at most the weather accuratly of Ireland.I know this from experience not from any scientific probabilities.

MadDog76

Scrappychimow wrote: »

I predict alot of snow this winter- starting in November.

November has come and (almost) gone .......... where's the f*****g snow!!??!!???! :rolleyes:

maquiladora

droidman123 wrote: »

The fact that the UK met office or any other soothsayer puts out "probabilities" is irrelevant. People mock the donegal post man and the James maddens of this world,rightfully or wrongfully.you make the point about scientific predictions, but they are as wrong or as right as the aforementioned people. Probabilites are not accurate forecasts for Ireland,as was my original post. Scientific or Donegal postman or mt cranium or the James maddens or whoever else of this world can not reasonably predict 2-3 days may by 4-5 at most the weather accuratly of Ireland.I know this from experience not from any scientific probabilities.

Ah c'mon man, James Madden and the Met Office don't even belong on the same planet let alone in the same paragraph. If you are seriously lumping them together then I don't know what to say really...Madden creates his "forecasts" based on nothing but the same cold hyperbole that gets printed in tabloids to generate traffic toward his personal website so that we can make money from the hits and people buying his "premium services". The Met Office issue unbiased forecasts that deal in probabilities based on the data from supercomputers and proven scientific observations for the benefit of the public regardless of weather type.

A 2 day forecast in a low pressure pattern can be less accurate than a 5 day forecast when high pressure is dominating. There is nothing magic or constant about it, it's about varying degrees of probability, and that's the same for Ireland as it is anywhere.

In 2009 and 2010 the shift to potential colder patterns were picked up on the models at 10+ days range. What started as low probability increased as the days passed and confidence increased. These things don't just suddenly arrive 2-3 days before it starts snowing out of nowhere. There are certain things that get set into motion long before that, far from our shores, which doesn't guarantee 100% what kind of weather Ireland get, but it does increase (or decrease) the likelihood of what we can say might happen down the line.

snaps

Cold has really dug in here around eastern Europe. East of germany is very cold right into Russia. We have solid ground, frozen river and daytime temp yesterday of -6. Last night was -11. Not much snow yet, but we do have about 5-10 cms laying in south eastern poland.

davidsr20

I think droid man has no idea what he's talking about.

uck51js9zml2yt

snaps wrote: »

Cold has really dug in here around eastern Europe. East of germany is very cold right into Russia. We have solid ground, frozen river and daytime temp yesterday of -6. Last night was -11. Not much snow yet, but we do have about 5-10 cms laying in south eastern poland.

Same in Slovakia. Only snow on high mountains.
I remember flying over in 2008 to Krakow and it being 13 degrees in January. I was in shirt sleeves.
My now father in law apologised for having no snow

droidman123

davidsr20 wrote: »

I think droid man has no idea what he's talking about.

You may be right,but i can assure you i am not the only one.i stand by what i said in relation to long range weather forecasting for ireland.

vicwatson

MadDog76 wrote: »

November has come and (almost) gone .......... where's the f*****g snow!!??!!???! :rolleyes:

Buffalo, New York :P