Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 29-10-2014 08:07AM

Wednesday, 29 October, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Quite cold in parts of the inland north this morning and this may lead to patchy freezing fog (near ponds and rivers in particular) but the chill should fade by mid-day under mostly cloudy skies, as drizzle or light rain edges further east from west Munster. Highs near 10 C in the north, 13 C west and south, about 11-12 C east coast.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, light rain at times, a little milder with lows 5-8 C.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers, moderate southeast to southerly winds, milder again with highs 13-15 C.

FRIDAY ... Heavy rain at times, crossing the country rather slowly from west to east, should be mostly clear of the east coast by late evening, but not before giving most places 20-25 mm of rain. Moderate southerly winds and fog especially near coasts and over hills. Highs 13-15 C.

SATURDAY ... A somewhat fresher day with a bright start in most areas, isolated showers becoming more widespread, then another interval of heavy rain towards afternoon west, evening east, accompanied by gusty southwest winds. Thunder could develop along a squally cold front, lows 8-10 C and highs near 13 C. Winds could gust to 90 or 100 km/hr at times by afternoon.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, fresher with southwest winds 50-70 km/hr and lows near 6 C, highs near 13 C.

MONDAY ... Breezy, rather cloudy with a few sunny breaks, showers and falling temperatures in the 7-9 C range.

TUESDAY ... Windy and quite cold with passing showers of rain or hail. Sleet or snow possible on summits. Winds NW 50-80 km/hr and lows 3-4 C with highs only 5-8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Continued rather cold and windy with passing sleety showers that will be mostly rain or hail at lower elevations, mixed and wintry on hills. Lows about 2 C and highs around 6 or 7 C. Winds NW to N 40-70 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, cold, some morning frost. Lows near 0 C and highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Turning somewhat milder again in strong south to southwest winds, periods of rain, highs 9-11 C. Despite that rise in temperatures, the pattern looks rather raw and unpleasant.

For Britain, would expect the cool, dry interval to persist into tonight before milder air sets in, and this could lead to freezing fog in a few locations of the Midlands and eastern England tonight. Otherwise the general trends will be similar, although the cool, wet spell could persist longer in southeast England.

For North America, the general pattern is becoming considerably colder throughout the central regions as very mild to warm air is pushed to the east coast where it will remain today but then they will also turn colder. Widespread valley rain and mountain snow developing in the west, and some signs of drought relief for parts of California. ... My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with rain at times, and highs near 13 C.

M.T. Cranium · 30-10-2014 08:15AM

Thursday, 30 October, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers, moderate southeast to southerly winds, with a few gusts to 60 km/hr, milder again with highs 13-15 C for most and possibly reaching 16 or 17 C in the south and east.

TONIGHT ... Very mild, light rain and fog developing, moderate southerly winds and lows only 12-14 C.

FRIDAY ... Heavy rain at times, crossing the country rather slowly from west to east, should be mostly clear of the east coast by late evening, but not before giving most places 20-25 mm of rain. Moderate southerly winds and fog especially near coasts and over hills. Highs 13-15 C.

SATURDAY ... A somewhat fresher day with a bright start in most areas, isolated showers becoming more widespread, then another interval of heavy rain towards afternoon west, evening east, accompanied by gusty southwest winds. Thunder could develop along a squally cold front, lows 8-10 C and highs near 13 C. Winds could gust to 90 or 100 km/hr at times by afternoon. Rainfalls about 20 mm.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, fresher with southwest winds 50-70 km/hr and lows near 6 C, highs near 13 C. Possible hail and thunder especially over western counties. Rainfalls about 10 mm.

MONDAY ... Breezy, rather cloudy with a few sunny breaks, showers with risk of thunder or hail, and falling temperatures in the 7-9 C range. Rainfalls about 5 to 8 mm.

TUESDAY ... Windy and quite cold with passing showers of rain or hail. Sleet or snow possible on summits. Winds becoming NW 50-80 km/hr (after an interval of slack or light southeast winds near a low centre) and lows 3-4 C with highs only 5-8 C. Rainfalls about 8-12 mm.

WEDNESDAY ... Continued rather cold and windy with passing sleety showers that will be mostly rain or hail at lower elevations, mixed and wintry on hills. It may become mainly dry in regions not directly exposed to a northerly flow from the ocean, especially the south central counties. Lows about 2 C and highs around 6 or 7 C. Winds NW to N 40-70 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, cold, some morning frost. Lows near 0 C and highs near 7 C east, 10-13 C west as rain returns in southerly winds. Becoming very windy by late afternoon or evening in western regions.

OUTLOOK ... Turning somewhat milder again in strong south to southwest winds, periods of rain, highs 9-12 C late next week. Despite that rise in temperatures, the pattern looks rather raw and unpleasant.

See yesterday's forecast for thoughts on Britain and North America, no changes in general there. My local weather on Wednesday was quite mild and apparently we just fell fractionally short of the daily record (which was 17.3 C for Vancouver) -- it was dry but cloudy with the odd spit of rain, although heavier echoes on radar just to my west, but those moving north. Looks like the slowly advancing front will give us a downpour here on Thursday and may even spread rain into parched areas of California by Friday. The very mild air is going to spread east across the Rockies into the southern prairies for a few days while much colder air spreads south towards the Great Lakes.

M.T. Cranium · 31-10-2014 07:31AM

Friday, 31 October, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Continued very mild with temperatures steady in the range 15-17 C with a slow-moving band of rain already over the western counties covering central regions through mid-day and eastern counties by afternoon. Occasional moderate southerly winds gusting to about 70 km/hr. The rain will last four to six hours and amount to 15-25 mm, and there could be the odd rumble of thunder, with temperatures closer to 13 C by end of the rainfall and 10-12 C during the evening which will see further light showers in a southwesterly wind of about 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Showers and moderate southwest winds, a few clear intervals and lows 6-8 C.

SATURDAY ... A somewhat fresher day with a bright start in most areas, isolated showers becoming more widespread, then another interval of heavy rain towards afternoon west, evening east, accompanied by gusty southwest winds. Thunder could develop along a squally cold front with highs near 13 C. Winds could gust to 80 km/hr at times by afternoon. Rainfalls about 20 mm.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, fresher with southwest winds 50-70 km/hr and lows near 6 C, highs near 13 C. Possible hail and thunder especially over western counties. Rainfalls about 10 mm.

MONDAY ... Breezy, rather cloudy with a few sunny breaks, a few sunny breaks but frequent showers with risk of thunder or hail, and falling temperatures in the 7-9 C range. Rainfalls about 5 to 8 mm.

TUESDAY ... Windy and quite cold with passing showers of rain or hail. Sleet or snow possible on summits. Winds becoming NW 50-80 km/hr (after an interval of slack or light southeast winds near a low centre) and lows 3-4 C with highs only 5-8 C. Rainfalls about 8-12 mm.

WEDNESDAY ... Continued rather cold and windy with passing sleety showers that will be mostly rain or hail at lower elevations mostly during the morning and over north and east, mixed and wintry on hills. It will probably become mainly dry in regions not directly exposed to a northerly flow from the ocean, especially the south central counties. Lows about 2 C and highs around 6 or 7 C. Winds NW to N 40-70 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, cold in parts of east and north where some morning frost will occur, lows near 0 C although temperatures rising over most regions towards morning, and highs near 9 C east, 11-14 C west as rain returns in southerly winds. Becoming very windy by late afternoon or evening in western regions.

OUTLOOK ... Turning somewhat milder again in strong south to southwest winds, periods of rain, highs 9-12 C late next week. Despite that rise in temperatures, the pattern looks rather raw and unpleasant. The pattern then seems likely to become rather chilly and unsettled in a westerly flow that occasionally permits mixing from more northerly source regions. This kind of pattern can sometimes open the doors for more persistent cold if the storm track weakens.

Today in Britain will see near-record warmth of 19-21 C in the south, and otherwise pretty much the same sequence of gradual but eventually considerable cooling towards 5-7 C by mid-week. In North America cold air is sweeping south across the Great Lakes and Midwest from a source in central Canada, while very mild air is moving north across the plains and prairies to bring them some mid-teens temperatures later today. Heavy rain is moving slowly inland from the Pacific and we've had that most of the day here with a high on Thursday near 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 01-11-2014 07:45AM

Saturday, 1 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A bright start to the day for Leinster as well as some parts of Ulster, increasing cloud east Munster and inland Connacht, Donegal, while rain spreads into the Atlantic coastal counties. This rain will eventually cover all other regions and bring another 15-25 mm on average, with some spot flooding. Highs 13-15 C. Moderate southerly winds will increase to strong southwest at times, especially for the southeastern counties this afternoon, where some gusts to 80 km/hr are likely.

TONIGHT ... Showers less frequent, strong southwest winds easing to 30-50 km/hr, lows about 5-7 C.

SUNDAY ... A rather similar day although somewhat fresher and colder feeling with highs only 11-13 C. About 10-20 mm rain in the active showers, some of which could become thundery. Winds SW increasing again to 60-80 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, passing squally showers with hail and thunder. Cold more due to the wind than temperatures which will range from lows near 4 C to highs near 11 C. Winds SW to W 50-70 km/hr. Rainfalls about 5-10 mm.

TUESDAY ... Cold and becoming windy by afternoon after a period of rather slack winds as low pressure moves southeast across the Irish Sea. Winds becoming northwest 50-70 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs near 9 or 10 C. Showers or periods of light rain could become sleety on high terrain, hail showers may mix in lower down at times. Rainfall (equivalent) about 5-10 mm.

WEDNESDAY ... During the early morning, any remnant cold air (over north Leinster, east Ulster) will be scoured out by milder air advancing on southerly winds. Rain will return and winds will slowly increase to 50-80 km/hr by later afternoon. Overnight lows could be frosty near midnight but then temperatures will rise to 5-8 C. Highs 9-13 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy (possibly very windy at times) with squally showers, temperatures briefly touching 15 C mid-day in southerly gales, then falling slowly later to near 8 C. Possible squall line that we can monitor closer to the actual time.

FRIDAY and WEEKEND will become rather cold and unsettled with temperatures between 7 and 10 C. There are some signs of even colder weather developing mid-month but no strong model consensus.

Will update Britain and North America in a day or two, my local weather on Friday was quite unpleasant until mid-afternoon with fog and rain, but a bit of clearing greeted the kids (and some adults) on their rounds. Max was 14 C.

Snow flurries fell this morning in Chicago and hilltops are turning white in the northeastern U.S. with mixed squall bands developing from the Great Lakes which did not become as warm this past summer as most years due to the very cold winter in 2013-14 and lacklustre temperatures at best all year. This may shift the snow squall season forward into NOV-DEC more than the usual DEC-JAN peak. The other day I mentioned my long-range forecast for Ireland but for North America, will be expecting very cold air to dominate in most regions with the west coast trying to hold on to persistent warmth but sometimes joining the rest of the continent under arctic air masses. Newfoundland and the eastern arctic may have above normal temperatures with a ridge expected over the west-central Atlantic. It may be a snowy and stormy winter in parts of the eastern U.S. and the Midwest, Great Lakes. Florida won't always be in the colder air, but some periods may be quite chilly there as well (meaning frosts in the citrus belt).

M.T. Cranium · 02-11-2014 08:11AM

Sunday, 2 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Increasing cloud this morning, showers becoming more widespread and eventually merging into periods of rain with some squally conditions at times, hail possible ... winds increasing to SSW 50-70 km/hr, feeling rather raw especially once it begins to rain. Highs 9-11 C north, 11-13 C south. Rainfalls of 5-10 mm.

TONIGHT ... Breezy and rather cold with frequent showers, some squally with hail. Lows 2-5 C, hail could accumulate in parts of inland northwest and give some slippery driving conditions. Fog could develop over hail that accumulates.

A rather similar day although somewhat fresher and colder feeling with highs only 11-13 C. About 10-20 mm rain in the active showers, some of which could become thundery. Winds SW increasing again to 60-80 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Mostly cloudy with brief Intervals of sunshine, passing squally showers with hail and thunder. Cold more due to the wind than temperatures which will range from lows near 4 C to highs near 11 C. Winds SW to W 50-70 km/hr. Rainfalls about 5-10 mm.

TUESDAY ... Cold and becoming windy by afternoon after a period of rather slack winds as low pressure moves southeast across the Irish Sea. Winds becoming northwest 50-70 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs near 9 or 10 C. Showers or periods of light rain could become sleety on high terrain, hail showers may mix in lower down at times. Rainfall (equivalent) about 5-10 mm.

WEDNESDAY ... During the early morning, any remnant cold air (over north Leinster, east Ulster) will be scoured out by milder air advancing on southerly winds except possibly in parts of east Ulster and north Leinster. Rain will return and winds will slowly increase to 50-80 km/hr by later afternoon. Overnight lows could be frosty near midnight (as low as -2 C around Monaghan and Cavan) but then temperatures will rise to 5-8 C. Afternnon or evening highs 9-13 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy (possibly very windy at times) with squally showers, temperatures briefly touching 15 C mid-day in southerly gales, then falling slowly later to near 8 C. Possible squall line that we can monitor closer to the actual time, giving some thunderstorms and gusty winds.

FRIDAY and WEEKEND will become rather cold and unsettled with temperatures between 7 and 10 C. Models are increasingly pointing to strong low pressure off the south coast of Ireland, looping around and moving back to the northwest slowly between 7th and 10th of November. Some rather persistent rain and moderate to strong east winds may develop, and snow or sleet could accumulate on summits as the flow will not be particularly mild (around 6-9 C at sea level, 2-5 C higher up). There are some signs of even colder weather developing mid-month but no strong model consensus. Another possible outcome would be an interval of modified cold under slack pressure patterns in a large-scale trough.

Will update other forecasts more extensively tomorrow, but it's worthy of note that snow fell very close to sea level in parts of the Carolinas and accumulated to about 15 cm in higher locations known as the Piedmont. This snow will transition to a cold rain on northeast winds along the coast further north but will continue to fall on higher terrain as the storm pushes northeast into New Brunswick, Canada. The weather on the west coast, meanwhile, finally cleared and we enjoyed some sunny intervals and a rather crisp autumnal day, 10-12 was the high. We had an extra week of daylight savings time and are now setting the clocks back to standard time.

M.T. Cranium · 03-11-2014 08:21AM

Monday, 3 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with brief intervals of sunshine, passing squally showers with hail and thunder. Cold more due to the wind than temperatures which will range from 6-8 C in some parts of the north to highs near 11 C over most of the country (although temperatures could drop several degrees during heavier showers especially if hail develops). Winds SW to W 50-70 km/hr. Rainfalls about 5-10 mm.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, showers or periods of light rain, occasional clear intervals, cold with lows 4-7 C. About 3-5 mm rain.

TUESDAY ... Cold and becoming windy by afternoon after a period of rather slack winds (away from west Munster which will remain windy) as low pressure moves southeast across the Irish Sea. Winds becoming northwest at 50-70 km/hr. Highs near 9 or 10 C. Showers or periods of light rain could become sleety on high terrain, hail showers may mix in lower down at times. Rainfall (equivalent) about 5-10 mm. Frosty in some places during the evening and around midnight.

WEDNESDAY ... During the early morning, any remnant cold air (over north Leinster, east Ulster) will be scoured out by milder air advancing on southerly winds except possibly in parts of east Ulster and north Leinster. Rain will return by mid-day on the outer west coast and by evening in most other regions, as winds slowly increase to 50-80 km/hr by later afternoon or evening. Overnight lows could be frosty near midnight (as low as -2 C around Monaghan and Cavan) but then temperatures will rise to 5-8 C. Afternoon or evening highs 9-13 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy (possibly very windy at times) with squally showers, temperatures briefly touching 15 C mid-day in southerly gales of 70-100 km/hr, then falling slowly later to near 8 C. Possible squall line that we can monitor closer to the actual time, giving some thunderstorms and gusty winds.

FRIDAY and WEEKEND will become rather cold and unsettled with temperatures between 7 and 10 C. Models are now showing somewhat weakened low pressure off the south coast of Ireland, looping around and moving back to the northwest slowly between 7th and 10th of November. Some rather persistent light rain and moderate east winds may develop, and snow or sleet could accumulate on summits around Sunday night or Monday night as the flow will not be particularly mild (around 6-9 C at sea level, 2-5 C higher up). At this point, models are divergent on how this rather slack weather pattern might further develop, with some suggestion of milder air trying to push back from the southeast, although that looks like it might be held back over eastern England before the situation then transforms to a blocking ridge of high that could return somewhat colder air from the northeast into the circulation by mid-month. That being said, there is not much on the 10-15 day maps to suggest very dramatic weather events, just a rather chilly pattern in general.

For Britain, would expect that all these events will unfold about a half day later on average, until we get to the point where blocking begins, then it could be somewhat warmer in England for a while around the 10th to 13th, before colder air sags south. Snow is likely to start appearing on higher summits of Wales, northern England and Scotland in the next week or so, but not at lower elevations.

In North America, much colder weather seems to be gaining control as the jet stream is now running more across the southern U.S. which remains generally near normal in contrast to the colder than average readings that are common in the northern states and southern Canada. This trends to more average values near the west coast where some light rain is spreading in, but in general the weather systems are weak, except for the departing storm now moving north towards the Labrador Sea. My local weather on Sunday was overcast with drizzly light rain at times, and the high was about 12 C.

M.T. Cranium · 04-11-2014 08:53AM

Tuesday, 4 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, passing showers that may become heavy at times in Connacht and parts of central Leinster, hail quite possible by mid-day or afternoon, and possible thunder. Winds that are currently rather slack from north will increase to 50-70 km/hr adding some chill especially during showery intervals. Highs 7-10 C north, 10-13 C south.
Rainfalls generally about 5 mm. Some sleet or snow could fall on summits.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals as showers die out, some frost likely in north Leinster and most of Ulster except Donegal coasts, a few parts of inland Connacht. This frost may dissipate before sunrise as cloud spreads across central counties, and the west will be frost-free then milder towards morning. Lows about -2 C in north and inland east, +3 C coastal east and some parts of coastal northwest, and 4-7 C west Munster.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloud increasing for Ulster, otherwise mostly cloudy all day with rain developing in west, winds increasing gradually to southerly 30-50 km/hr. Overnight it will become quite windy and milder as the highs for the day, 8-10 C will be the evening lows as well.

THURSDAY ... Periods of rain, blustery south winds 50-80 km/hr, some gusts to 100 km/hr possible near coasts, 15-25 mm rain. Highs near 14 C. There may be a gusty squall line feature moving eastward during the afternoon.

FRIDAY ... Some clearing by early morning, lows near 4 C. Variable cloud and showers, breezy during the day, somewhat colder with highs 10-12 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Mostly cloudy, outbreaks of light rain more frequent in west and south, some low cloud over hills and light to moderate winds that will start out westerly then circle around to easterly as low pressure develops near the south coast. At the moment the model indications suggest a rather weak system that eventually dissipates to give mostly cloudy weather with isolated showers and near normal temperatures next week, possibly rather cold some nights, with frosts fairly frequent.

My local weather on Monday was wet and rather foggy, and some areas have had flooding from overflowing of small rivers coming out of the north shore mountains. The high was about 12 C.

M.T. Cranium · 05-11-2014 08:40AM

Wednesday, 5 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for heavy rainfalls tonight and Thursday, 20-25 mm likely, accompanied by strong wind gusts at times to 100 km/hr. Some flooding may develop by afternoon or evening tomorrow.

TODAY ... Sunny intervals for north and east, with increasing cloud during the afternoon. Highs 8-10 C. ... Cloudy by mid-day in south and west, becoming rather windy by late afternoon as rain begins to move in. Highs 10-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Windy with periods of rain, mild in west and south, winds increasing to southerly 50-80 km/hr. Lows 7-9 C. Cloudy but dry at first in east and north, lowest temperatures before or around midnight (lows 3-5 C) and rain arriving before daybreak.

THURSDAY ... Windy and mild with intervals of heavy rain, becoming squally towards late afternoon with risk of thunder, southerly winds 70-110 km/hr and highs 13-15 C. Foggy especially over higher terrain, dense fog may limit visibility in parts of the inland north and northwest. Rainfalls for most regions about 20-25 mm, some spot flooding could develop.

THURSDAY NIGHT ... Heavy rain may continue over parts of Leinster as a wave is now expected to develop on the cold front and move north into the Irish Sea. A further 10-20 mm rain may fall in the inland southeast, Wicklow and Dublin with 5-10 mm further north and west, but western regions may escape almost without further rainfall. Lows 5-8 C. The strong winds will abate before the rain ends, then it may become moderately windy again towards morning.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloudiness with occasional showers, breezy to windy at times, and colder with highs 8-11 C. Rainfalls about 5 mm.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy and cool with occasional light rain but some dry intervals, misty to foggy at times too. Highs will average 8-9 C. Slight frosts could develop over inland north.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY are looking unsettled, but details are not too reliable yet as some models show quite a strong low approaching the south around Wednesday 12th, which would lead to heavy rain and strong winds. Other guidance is more subdued although unsettled. Temperatures will likely stay fairly close to 10 C daytime.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and rather hazy with highs of about 13 C.

M.T. Cranium · 06-11-2014 08:39AM

Thursday, 6 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT maintained for heavy rain and gusty winds. Full moon occurs tonight at 10:23 p.m.

TODAY ... Windy and mild with some heavy bursts of rain, mainly over north and west this morning then spreading to central counties mid-day and east coast by late afternoon, although sporadic light rain may come and go before this main band arrives. Eventually, rainfall totals of 20-25 mm are likely, with spot flooding possible. Strong southerly winds gusting to about 90 km/hr are likely to ease gradually, although a weak squall line will bring a few gusts to north Leinster and Dublin regions. One or two thunderstorms could develop between Mullingar and Navan and south into Laois and Kildare. There could be a few glimpses of sun or at least brighter intervals mainly over south central counties and highs will reach about 14 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain will become heavy over Leinster and a further 10-20 mm could fall from Wexford north to Dublin, while rain tapers off to drizzly showers elsewhere, with moderate westerly winds developing after an interval of calm as low pressure forms over the Irish Sea. Lows 7-9 C east, 3-7 C west.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals for the east with isolated showers developing, cloudy for west and north, partly cloudy for south, more widespread showers that could turn heavy in parts of west Munster. Highs 9-11 C. Rainfalls about 10-15 mm west, considerably less during the day east, but even so, the overnight rain may produce morning flooding lasting a few hours in low spots.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of light rain, lows 3-5 C and highs 8-11 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy to windy at times (west to northwest) with showers, lows about 3-5 C and highs 8-10 C.

MONDAY ... Intervals of rain, milder, highs near 13 C.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... After a brief dry spell early Tuesday, another system is likely to bring moderate or heavy rainfall especially for southern counties, with highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some chance of a colder turn developing, although nothing too extreme can be identified from present guidance.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with light rain at times, and highs near 13 C.

M.T. Cranium · 07-11-2014 08:38AM

Friday, 7 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny intervals for the east with isolated showers developing, cloudy for west and north, partly cloudy for south, more widespread showers that could turn heavy in parts of west Munster. Highs 9-11 C. Rainfalls about 10-15 mm west, considerably less during the day east.

TONIGHT ... A few intervals of rain persisting across the south with 5-10 mm possible, cloudy with a few clear intervals further north, slight risk of frost and icy sections on roads in north central counties. Lows near 5 C south, and in the range of -1 to +3 C elsewhere.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of light rain across the south and showers in parts of the north, with highs 8-11 C. Rainfalls 3-7 mm.

SUNDAY ... Breezy to windy at times (west to northwest) with showers, lows about 3-5 C and highs 8-10 C.

MONDAY ... Becoming foggy and milder with intervals of rain with highs near 13 C and about 10-15 mm rainfall.

TUESDAY ... Becoming partly cloudy with showers more isolated, highs 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Periods of rain, east to northeast winds may become rather brisk, highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There are continuing hints of a colder turn after mid-month although maximum temperatures would not fall below freezing but might be as low as 4-7 C if some of this guidance proves correct.

My local weather was very mild on Thursday, with a few sunny breaks and light showers in the area, highs reached 16 or 17 C around the region.

M.T. Cranium · 08-11-2014 09:06AM

Saturday, 8 November

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Periods of rain will continue across most of Leinster while ending soon in east Munster. Some locally heavy falls of 15-20 mm may develop in parts of Laois, Kildare and Dublin and nearby parts of adjacent counties over the next few hours, with flooding on poorly drained sections of road network, but these conditions should improve around mid-day with a partly cloudy regime already in place further west moving in. That will eventually be followed in the northwest by showers heading southeast into Donegal later this afternoon. This may leave parts of the inland southwest mostly dry for the day. Highs 9-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals east and south with lows about 2-4 C, risk of isolated frost in counties around Offaly and Westmeath, as cloud moving across Ulster and Connacht brings a few showers there and keeps low temperatures up around 5-7 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy, rather cold with passing showers, heavier in the western half of the country (5-10 mm there, 2-5 mm east). Highs 8-10 C and winds becoming westerly to northwesterly at 50-70 km/hr. These winds will ease somewhat while backing to southerly in the evening.

MONDAY ... Early morning frost in some parts of north Leinster and east Ulster but cloudy with rain arriving further west by morning, becoming heavy at times as it overspreads the rest of the country in strong southeast winds. Lows -1 to +3 C in northeast, rising from 5 C towards 10 C in Munster, and otherwise near 5 C. The day will be wet and moderately windy with highs near 12 C and 15-25 mm rainfalls.

TUESDAY ... Mild with a few showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will be dominated by a slow-moving and possibly intensifying low that will bring winds from the south backing into southeast or east as it meanders around near the southwest coast. Some heavier rain could develop in parts of the southeast, central counties and inland Connacht. Temperatures will remain near normal in the range of 6 to 10 C much of the time.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for unsettled conditions to continue with near normal temperatures that may take a tumble downwards late next weekend or into the following week (of 17th Nov onwards).

The outlook for Britain is fairly similar -- today's heavy rain may impact parts of North Wales and northern England by afternoon and evening, and the wet spell later next week may be mostly confined to southwest England and south Wales for Britain.

In North America, conditions are fairly seasonable this weekend but attention is turning to a very cold outbreak set to move south next week. Remnants of Typhoon Nuri hit the western Aleutians of Alaska earlier today with winds gusting to over 150 km/hr. Weaker systems further east are bringing rain to the coast but we had a dry day here on Friday with a few sunny breaks and highs near 15 C.

M.T. Cranium · 09-11-2014 08:39AM

Sunday, 9 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy with rather frequent showers developing, after a dry morning in parts of Leinster and east Munster. Some of the showers could produce brief thunder or hail, but in general rainfall amounts only 3-7 mm, with highs reaching 10 to 12 C. Breezes from west to northwest will be moderate at times.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, more persistent in east Ulster and north Leinster, eastern Connacht. Lows -2 to +2 C. This may produce some scattered frost or freezing fog with slippery roads tomorrow morning in those regions. Further south and west, cloudy with lows about 3-6 C.

MONDAY ... Any morning sunshine will fade behind advancing cloud, as rain spreads into Munster during the morning, Connacht to south Leinster mid-day and other regions further east by afternoon. About 15-20 mm rain likely, milder with gusty southeast to south winds developing, highs 11-13 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain may continue early morning leading to fog, and then slow clearing with mild temperatures, lows 6-8 C and highs 11-14 C. Some light rain could be more persistent near Dublin as weak disturbances form over the Irish Sea moving north, but many other places could have a dry interval.

WEDNESDAY ... Scattered showers or periods of rain, mild with south to southeast winds sometimes rather gusty, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Moderate or even heavy rain likely with strong southeast winds, temperatures steady in the 8-11 C range. Potential for about 20-30 mm rainfalls.

OUTLOOK ... The storm track will shift further south and place Ireland in a mostly dry southeast to easterly flow that is not being advertised as particularly cold although slight frosts would be expected especially in central and inland northern counties. Daytime highs would be around 7 to 9 C.

As cold air masses over central Canada to move south in waves this coming week, the west coast remains rather mild and we enjoyed some sunshine for a change on Saturday with highs near 10 C. The strong storm in the Bering Sea is gradually filling up now and will be almost gone by this time tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium · 10-11-2014 08:47AM

Monday, 10 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain and moderate southeast winds will spread east, but the morning could remain dry in some places in eastern and north-central counties. Eventually most places will see about 15 mm of rain and winds gusting to 70 or 80 km/hr. West Munster will get through this first and see some improvements later in the day with winds easing. Highs will generally reach 11-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Some lingering drizzly or foggy conditions but also some clearing intervals, lows will be rather variable as a result in the range of 3 to 8 C. Some dense fog patches are quite likely to form.

TUESDAY ... A few showers but also some dry intervals, mild. Highs 11-14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Outbreaks of rain mostly confined to eastern counties, mild with moderate southerly winds, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy and mild with periods of heavy rain (20-30 mm potential), winds southeasterly 70-110 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs around 10-12 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Winds are expected to become easterly during this period with the storm track pushed south. Sometimes this is a good recipe for colder weather and wintry showers but in this case, it appears that the flow will remain relatively mild (7-9 C) so that showers will continue to be rain where they occur -- more likely across the southern third of the country with perhaps a few sunny intervals each day further north.

The situation for Britain is about the same, but big things are happening across North America as wintry cold is pushing south from Canada to cover most of the plains states today, snow moving along the boundary from Montana towards Nebraska and then into the western Great Lakes region and upper Midwest. It may take two or three days for this cold to spread all the way east to the coast, where it will be rather modified, but temperatures will drop as low as -15 to -20 C in the plains states and -5 to -10 C in the Great Lakes region over the next two days. A shallow outflow of this cold, dry air will reach the west coast but not enough to drop temperatures by very much. On Sunday we had some hazy sunshine and highs of about 10 C. A slight frost is developing overnight.

M.T. Cranium · 11-11-2014 09:05AM

Tuesday, 11 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain will feed north into the eastern and some central counties, and some thundery bursts may develop, with 15-20 mm possible. Further west, a few dry intervals, scattered outbreaks of light rain also moving north mainly near the Atlantic coasts. Amounts there closer to 5-10 mm. Mild with highs reaching 12-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain tapering to drizzle and fog, mild, lows 7-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... More rain likely, although this time more concentrated on western counties, again with risk of thunder, 10-20 mm possible. Generally cloudy but with a few brighter intervals especially for Ulster and north Leinster. Highs around 12 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy and wet with southeast winds veering to south or southwest 70-100 km/hr before easing, 20-25 mm rainfalls possible, and highs near 11 C. Spot flooding seems likely especially south and east inland counties.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, somewhat cooler in southeast winds backing to easterly, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Some light rain at times near south coast, showers further north although generally not very heavy, in a somewhat cooler easterly wind of 30-50 km/hr. Lows 2-5 C with slight frosts inland north and west, highs 7-9 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Models seem to be pointing to a quiet almost slack pressure pattern for several days next week, which could promote some dense fog or lingering frost in a few places, but temperatures close to average if perhaps slightly on the colder side. One model then goes on to show colder air seeping in from the east near the end of the month.

See yesterday's forecast for the general themes for Britain and North America, my local weather on Monday was sunny with a slight frost in the morning and an afternoon high near 9 C. Similar weather is expected most of the week here, but it's closer to -10 C on the far side of the Rockies over fresh snow. Very little new snow has fallen yet on the coastal mountains, today's clearing revealed no sign of it yet on nearby peaks.

M.T. Cranium · 12-11-2014 09:08AM

Wednesday, 12 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for strong winds and heavy rainfalls -- the strong S-SE winds are expected to reach the west coast tonight and then move east to Leinster by mid-day Thursday. After several days of variable rainfall amounts and more expected today, the heavier rain likely on Thursday will be falling on largely saturated ground and flooding is possible in both urban and rural areas that are either low-lying or poorly drained.

TODAY ... Showery rainfalls of 5-15 mm will move generally northeastwards but will be heavier in central regions (from south to north-central) and some coastal areas may have dry intervals by afternoon with perhaps a bit of sunshine. Mild with highs near 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, strong southeast winds developing, heavy rain at times especially in west Munster, lows near 7 C. Some gusts to 100 km/hr near the south coast. Fog may become dense especially over higher portions of the road network.

THURSDAY ... Strong winds gradually moving across the eastern counties then easing from the west, rain continuing heavy at times but tapering off to showers with some late clearing in the west. Gusts to 110 km/hr possible and about 15-25 mm rain in total, leading to some flooding. Highs near 12 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, still a few outbreaks of rain (5-10 mm amounts more typical) with lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.

WEEKEND and FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Model guidance begins to diverge through the weekend and becomes more or less chaotic next week. The middle ground seems to be an increasing tendency to east winds and rain becoming more confined to the south coast over the period, but there is enough uncertainty to say that rain is still going to be intermittent in other regions. The temperature trend is likely to be slightly downward into the range of 7-10 C daytimes and 2-5 C nights, with slight chance of frost in a few locations mainly inland northwest. It should be stressed that the actual outcome could be a stronger cooling trend, more rain than suggested, or even a lack of easterly winds overall and a quick return to what many call "this Atlantic muck." The models are having problems with two features, one being a (possibly) weakening blocking high over northwest Russia, and a second factor being how much cold air spills out of North America (where a strong cold outbreak is certain) into the Greenland-Iceland sector. The guidance that allows the blocking to continue and the cold to be held back somewhat is also the most pronounced "easterly" guidance available for our forecast.

Well, it would be apparent from that summary that Britain will be closer to the source of any cooler or drier air from the east and so the range of possible outcomes there next week (after similar trends to about Sunday) might include some rather cold weather by late in the period. Meanwhile, some frigid air has invaded most of North America apart from the still-warm southwestern states, and an even stronger surge is coming next week. Snowfalls of 15-30 cms can be expected in some lake effect zones on top of some heavy snowfalls in the past two days in upper Michigan (The Marquette area south of Lake Superior has seen almost 100 cm of snow since Sunday night). On the west coast we continue to enjoy some clear skies despite a cold east wind and temperatures have dipped slightly to about 8 C although that wind made it feel more like 2 C on Tuesday.

M.T. Cranium · 13-11-2014 09:08AM

Thursday, 13 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for heavy rainfalls and possible flood risks, developing in two stages, 20-30 mm rain today and a further 20-30 mm possible tonight. The greatest flood risk appears to be for the inland southeast and Leinster mainly west of Dublin, extending later into eastern Connacht and central Ulster.

TODAY will be mild and windy with intervals of heavy rain, possibly thundery in Leinster, giving 20-30 mm as it moves slowly east. There will be a partial clearance for Munster and western Connacht with just isolated but locally heavy showers. Highs near 12 C and winds SSE 50-80 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... heavy rainfall will return from a second wave moving in from the south, affecting mostly the eastern half of the country. This will also give about 20-30 mm rainfalls and by this time the cumulative effects will make flooding both widespread and possibly severe in places. Watch for updates. Temperatures will stay near 8-10 C and western regions, while not as wet, will have 5-10 mm further rain and some dense fog may develop in places.

FRIDAY ... The heaviest rain will move out of Ulster during the morning, but with a clearing trend, some heavy thundery showers could then develop in moderate south to southeast winds. Highs near 11 C. Rainfalls 5-15 mm. Some flooding may be slow to abate despite the improvement in the weather.

SATURDAY ... Colder with passing showers, heavier near south coast and inland to central counties. Winds backing to east, lows 4-7 C and highs 8-10C.

SUNDAY ... Rather cold again with east to northeast winds, passing showers but some longer dry intervals, lows 2-6 C and highs 7-9 C. Some morning frost inland northwest.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, cold. Some isolated showers, lows 0-3 C and highs about 8 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Winds becoming southeast again, more rain likely, temperatures briefly near 10 C, then a rather brisk westerly flow with relatively cool highs in the 6-8 C range.

Cold air continues to spread east in North America and highs today will only reach 5 C on the east coast, -2 C in the Great Lakes and -10 C in the northern plains and Rockies. My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and cool with a high near 8 C.

Will post forecast updates around 1700h with the latest details on the second wave of rainfall expected tonight.

M.T. Cranium · 13-11-2014 05:21PM

UPDATE _ Thursday, 13 November _ 4:30 p.m.
__________________________________________

All indications point to the second overnight wave hitting the eastern half of the country with about 25-35 mm further rainfall which will either hold flooding roughly in its status at that time or make things somewhat worse still in other areas. This rainfall could be thundery as lightning is now being indicated northwest of the Iberian peninsula about where the trailing edge of this rainfall complex is located.

The onset of this rainfall will be 9 p.m. or so, the heaviest amounts will fall around midnight to 0300h in the southeast and from 0200 to 0600h in the Dublin-Kildare-Meath region. Amounts will be much less, or even close to zero, in the western half of the country, on the present track. Another update will be posted around 8 p.m.

M.T. Cranium · 13-11-2014 11:14PM

LATE UPDATE _ 10 p.m. Thursday 13 November 2014
_________________________________

Sorry this is a bit late but all weather sites seem to be slowing to a crawl and my mouse picked up a hint that it should do the same.

Although there is some westward drift in the model guidance for the final outcome of tonight's heavy rainfall event, it still appears to be a case of central and eastern counties seeing more than western counties with the track of the developing frontal wave likely to be central Waterford to Sligo. The heaviest rain will follow that general path although a secondary maximum is likely to develop near the southern flanks of the Wicklow Mountains and up the eastern side of the Wicklow-Dublin higher terrain. Expect a brief period of gusty east to southeast winds in some parts of the southeast. Winds to the west of the track of this feature will tend to go calm for a while in moderate rain.

Some final estimates for rainfall amounts overnight:

20-30 mm in general most counties, but 30-40 locally Waterford, Kilkenny, Carlow, Laois, Kildare, south Wicklow and north Wexford. 10-20 mm Kerry and southwest Clare, also some parts of east Ulster.

A few local 40-50 mm totals are possible over southeast-facing higher terrain and rivers or streams draining those areas could experience severe flooding by early morning hours.

The feature will tend to weaken gradually moving through north-central regions where totals will probably be closer to 20 mm than 30 mm, and this may limit further flooding to nuisance more than severe in Connacht and west-central Ulster.

Will keep watching and updating as required.

M.T. Cranium · 13-11-2014 11:14PM

LATE UPDATE _ 10 p.m. Thursday 13 November 2014
_________________________________

Sorry this is a bit late but all weather sites seem to be slowing to a crawl and my mouse picked up a hint that it should do the same.

Although there is some westward drift in the model guidance for the final outcome of tonight's heavy rainfall event, it still appears to be a case of central and eastern counties seeing more than western counties with the track of the developing frontal wave likely to be central Waterford to Sligo. The heaviest rain will follow that general path although a secondary maximum is likely to develop near the southern flanks of the Wicklow Mountains and up the eastern side of the Wicklow-Dublin higher terrain. Expect a brief period of gusty east to southeast winds in some parts of the southeast. Winds to the west of the track of this feature will tend to go calm for a while in moderate rain.

Some final estimates for rainfall amounts overnight:

20-30 mm in general most counties, but 30-40 locally Waterford, Kilkenny, Carlow, Laois, Kildare, south Wicklow and north Wexford. 10-20 mm Kerry and southwest Clare, also some parts of east Ulster.

A few local 40-50 mm totals are possible over southeast-facing higher terrain and rivers or streams draining those areas could experience severe flooding by early morning hours.

The feature will tend to weaken gradually moving through north-central regions where totals will probably be closer to 20 mm than 30 mm, and this may limit further flooding to nuisance more than severe in Connacht and west-central Ulster.

Will keep watching and updating as required.

M.T. Cranium · 14-11-2014 09:20AM

Friday, 14 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Remnant light showers will soon move out of the north, and many regions will enjoy a dry start with a few brief sunny intervals. Some heavy showers may push some distance inland from the south coast and could set off a thunderstorm around Cork or Waterford and there would be potential for 10-15 mm rainfall locally. However, for most places, further rainfalls will be slight. Moderate southerly winds developing. Very mild with highs near 13 C.

TONIGHT ... Further showers may become more widespread later in the night as winds back slowly to southeast, rain likely heavier in Munster than elsewhere, 5-15 mm there. Lows 5-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Slightly colder with winds backing more towards easterly, passing showers or periods of light rain mostly near south and southeast coasts, 5-10 mm on average there, but a few sunny intervals further north and west. Highs 8-11 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers in northeast winds that will back further into a northerly direction, while remaining rather light. Lows 2-5 C and highs about 9 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be fairly bland days with scattered showers or outbreaks of light rain and generally light and variable winds picking up towards the end of the day on Tuesday from the southeast. Highs both days around 8 or 9 C, morning lows 2-5 C with slight risk of frost in a few north central inland areas.

WEDNESDAY will see a return to wet and windy conditions, at this point it appears moderate with 15-20 mm rainfalls and highs near 10 C, wind gusts to about 90 km/hr with a shift from southeast to westerly.

FURTHER OUTLOOK is becoming rather uncertain, the European model shows a deep low tracking across the south on Friday 21st and other guidance remains in a less active but unsettled westerly frame. We'll have to wait and see if the European model continues to develop this major storm (which could bring very strong winds to the southeast and to much of Britain) or if it fades out of forecasts later.

My local weather on Thursday remained clear and cold, the high was about 7 C and the nights are getting a bit colder as we move through this spell, -2 C outside at midnight.

M.T. Cranium · 15-11-2014 09:39AM

Saturday, 15 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A few heavy showers will be mainly confined to west Munster, with less active and isolated showers further east, generally dry with some sunny intervals at times for central and north although isolated and brief showers possible, winds rather light southeast backing slowly to east, highs about 9 or 10 C for most, could reach 12 C in some western counties.

TONIGHT will see remnant showers coming and going across the south coastal areas, otherwise partly cloudy to clear and rather cold with isolated frost or freezing fog patches, lows -2 to +4 C.

SUNDAY will continue rather similar if perhaps a touch colder than today as winds back around into the northeast, with showers less active in the south but perhaps more widespread in eastern coastal counties. Sunny intervals for west and north, highs 8-10 C.

MONDAY will be a fairly quiet day also with winds backing around almost in a full circle through northerly to westerly, with the focus for shower activity pivoting around through the inland north and redeveloping in bands over parts of the west, but only light rainfalls are expected. Morning frosts and lows of about -2 to +4 C with highs 7-9 C.

TUESDAY will continue dry in north and east, cloudy at times, but the south and west will gradually become wet and windy ahead of a frontal system expected to cross the country during the night, lows 1-3 C and highs 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY the rain will continue to move east, winds will become rather strong southeast then veer rather sharply towards southwest and west before falling off. This event will have potential for 20-25 mm rainfalls, highs near 9 or 10 C, and wind gusts to 90 km/hr. Colder again late in the day.

OUTLOOK then calls for variable cloud and somewhat unsettled conditions but rather cold with widespread if slight frosts. The concept of a strong wind or rain storm around Friday has faded although deep low pressure is now shown moving north to the west of the Atlantic coastal counties so that rather brisk southerly winds could develop at some point around Friday or Saturday.

My local weather continued clear and rather cold with a high of about 6 C on Friday.

M.T. Cranium · 16-11-2014 08:20AM

Sunday, 16 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Fog will be fairly widespread for part of the morning and it will be quite cold until the fog disperses, but some sunshine is likely around mid-day and afternoon, with just a few showers here and there in backing southeast to easterly winds of 30-50 km/hr. Highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, widespread fog and some frost. Lows -2 to +4 C. A few showers are still likely in some coastal regions. There could be a few icy spots on rural highways towards sunrise.

MONDAY ... Moderate northeast to north winds, a few showers developing but some places dry, highs 8-10 C.

TUESDAY ... Sharp frost and widespread fog may be slow to disperse but eventually some sunshine will break through, cloud will build slowly near the south and west coast, and it may rain by evening in west Munster in a moderate southeast wind. Lows -3 to +3 C and highs 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Periods of rain, moderate southeast winds. There is now a developing change in the guidance especially on the leading European model, as this system tries to bring warmer air in but blocking high pressure is now expected to push the cloud and rain back to the south later in the overnight hours. Lows 3-6 C and highs 8-11 C.

OUTLOOK ... As mentioned, some guidance is now much more "blocked" with high pressure building to the north and a rather cold easterly wind developing, although not cold enough for snow, nor for that matter unstable enough for much precipitation of any kind. However, other models continue to show some southeasterly component and intervals of light rain, so the outlook for a dry cold spell is not nailed down yet. Inversions, dense fog and a possible return to milder but dry weather would round out the picture if the blocking high sinks a bit further south as depicted. What is somewhat frustrating (although typical of uncertain outlooks) is that various models keep changing roles in this disagreement, about three days ago the same scenarios were shown on different models than today's guidance.

Just a few notes on what may transpire in Britain and North America. For Britain, the blocking high will be closer by Monday and the Wednesday rain may only reach Cornwall, Devon and south Wales before being pushed south. And also, the temperatures could be several degrees lower with potential for some severe frosts and daytime fog under inversion conditions. It would be an early taste of winter for some. Meanwhile, across North America temperatures are generally quite cold but a very strong arctic blast is developing over central Canada and this will bring heavy lake effect snow during the week ahead. Not much of this snow will make it across the mountains to the eastern seaboard but there could be a few flurries at times after some rain moves up the coast on Tuesday. The western chill is fading as the fronts reposition further east around the same stagnant high. My local weather on Saturday continued clear and chilly with a high near 6 C. Expecting a slow return to more normal 10-12 C readings this week under slowly increasing cloud and the risk of dense fog here and there.

M.T. Cranium · 17-11-2014 08:22AM

Monday, 17 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Light rain will move gradually southward down the east coast bringing about 3-5 mm rainfalls to parts of Leinster. Further west, it should be mainly dry if rather cloudy, but some isolated showers are possible. Highs will reach 9 to 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy at first, patchy drizzle, then some clearing which may lead to frost and/or fog by morning, lows -2 to +4 C.

TUESDAY ... Some sunny intervals will develop after the fog dissipates, with a few showers mainly near coasts making some progress inland but amounts generally slight with central regions likely to remain dry. Highs 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Early morning rain in the southwest will spread further north and east but may never reach north Connacht, Ulster or north Leinster before being pushed back south late in the day. Moderate southeast winds, lows 0-5 C (possibly lower in north and east) with isolated frost, highs 8-11 C.

THURSDAY ... Light rain at times in south, variable cloud elsewhere, some clearing at times in north and continued rather mild with lows 3-5 C and highs 8-11 C.

FRIDAY ... Mixture of cloud and sunshine, patchy light rain may come and go near Atlantic coasts, lows 2-4 C and highs 8-11 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... There is still some uncertainty but most guidance is converging on the idea that the weak ridge promoting dull, mild weather will try to hold on while being attacked from both east and west by colder air masses. This should leave Ireland in rather mild and generally dry conditions with highs possibly reaching 12 C. Parts of Britain could turn colder in stages as winds there turn more to an easterly direction.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Turning colder in stages, unsettled with cold rain or hail showers at times, as the cold pool to the west breaks down the mild blocking, and elements of the eastern cold filter through towards Ulster and north Leinster. The degree of cold will be rather modified, frosts are likely but snow is not evident yet on the charts, unless possibly in mixed showers at high elevations. Temperatures are more likely to be in the 4-8 C range during this spell of colder weather.

In North America, very cold air is blasting south across the Great Lakes and by tonight, Tuesday and onwards, heavy snow squalls are likely in brisk westerly winds with temperatures about 10-15 degrees below normal values (or around -5 C).

My local weather on Sunday continued clear and quite cold, thick hoar frost has developed in shaded areas but the sun makes it feel rather mild if you're out of the (southeast) breeze. Highs reached about 5 C. The outlook here is for milder weather with more cloud, and eventually a return to the normal November rain.

M.T. Cranium · 17-11-2014 08:22AM

Monday, 17 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Light rain will move gradually southward down the east coast bringing about 3-5 mm rainfalls to parts of Leinster. Further west, it should be mainly dry if rather cloudy, but some isolated showers are possible. Highs will reach 9 to 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy at first, patchy drizzle, then some clearing which may lead to frost and/or fog by morning, lows -2 to +4 C.

TUESDAY ... Some sunny intervals will develop after the fog dissipates, with a few showers mainly near coasts making some progress inland but amounts generally slight with central regions likely to remain dry. Highs 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Early morning rain in the southwest will spread further north and east but may never reach north Connacht, Ulster or north Leinster before being pushed back south late in the day. Moderate southeast winds, lows 0-5 C (possibly lower in north and east) with isolated frost, highs 8-11 C.

THURSDAY ... Light rain at times in south, variable cloud elsewhere, some clearing at times in north and continued rather mild with lows 3-5 C and highs 8-11 C.

FRIDAY ... Mixture of cloud and sunshine, patchy light rain may come and go near Atlantic coasts, lows 2-4 C and highs 8-11 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... There is still some uncertainty but most guidance is converging on the idea that the weak ridge promoting dull, mild weather will try to hold on while being attacked from both east and west by colder air masses. This should leave Ireland in rather mild and generally dry conditions with highs possibly reaching 12 C. Parts of Britain could turn colder in stages as winds there turn more to an easterly direction.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Turning colder in stages, unsettled with cold rain or hail showers at times, as the cold pool to the west breaks down the mild blocking, and elements of the eastern cold filter through towards Ulster and north Leinster. The degree of cold will be rather modified, frosts are likely but snow is not evident yet on the charts, unless possibly in mixed showers at high elevations. Temperatures are more likely to be in the 4-8 C range during this spell of colder weather.

In North America, very cold air is blasting south across the Great Lakes and by tonight, Tuesday and onwards, heavy snow squalls are likely in brisk westerly winds with temperatures about 10-15 degrees below normal values (or around -5 C).

My local weather on Sunday continued clear and quite cold, thick hoar frost has developed in shaded areas but the sun makes it feel rather mild if you're out of the (southeast) breeze. Highs reached about 5 C. The outlook here is for milder weather with more cloud, and eventually a return to the normal November rain.

M.T. Cranium · 18-11-2014 08:47AM

Tuesday, 18 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some dense fog patches are likely for several hours this morning, mostly in central regions, but sunshine could break through eventually while some coastal areas will enjoy plenty of sun and mild highs near 10 or 11 C. There could be one or two spots that stay foggy or under low cloud and fail to warm up that much (6-8 C). Winds light to moderate easterly will begin to increase from a southeasterly direction by late in the day across the south and west.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals with fog patches in parts of north and east, lows around 2-4 C. Cloudy with occasional rain and moderate southeast winds central, west and south, lows 4-7 C rising to near 10 C in Kerry. Rainfalls of about 5-10 mm in west Munster.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain will edge further north, bringing 10-15 mm to some parts of west, central and southeast. However, it may remain dry for parts of east Ulster and adjacent northeast Connacht, north Ulster. Highs will reach about 10-12 C. Moderate southeast winds will tend to weaken later in the day.

THURSDAY ... Rain may continue intermittently in the south and west, but some brighter intervals will develop during the day elsewhere. Lows near 5 C and highs 8-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Rain at times, mild, southeast winds 30-50 km/hr with some higher gusts near Atlantic coasts, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Continued rather mild but some slightly colder air will be edging into northern counties from both the west, while some even colder conditions will be moving into eastern Britain. Despite those changes, most of Ireland will stay relatively mild with highs 8-11 C, slight frosts possible in a few locations, and greater risk of showers including some hail in Ulster and Connacht.

There continue to be faint signs of a more significant cooling trend towards the end of the month. The mild sector now over Ireland and most of western Europe is not particularly strong and has managed to remain unscathed mainly because arctic cold is pouring south in two other regions of the hemisphere (North America and central Asia) so there isn't much left to attack this weak ridge, but at the same time, if those areas of cold advection weaken then colder air could begin to circulate around stagnant high pressure in Scandinavia. One model is showing quite a cooling trend but others just have weak slightly below average cold by about the 27th.

North America continues to see some near-record cold and heavy snow in the Great Lakes snow belts. Buffalo NY was reporting thundersnow and 2-3 inch per hour falls in the southern suburbs on Monday evening. It was also snowing at a 2 inch per hour clip in Grand Rapids, Michigan, and later tonight into Tuesday, very heavy snow will develop in parts of Ontario and northeastern New York state. The large cities on the east coast had some rain ahead of this cold air on Monday but will see passing flurries and a cold westerly wind today. Meanwhile, the long clear and cold spell on the west coast began to modify on Monday with increasing high cloud and a slightly milder high of 10C.

M.T. Cranium · 19-11-2014 09:05AM

Wednesday, 19 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain will spread rather slowly north, and could be heavy at times this morning in west Munster, but amounts will probably decrease as the band slowly weakens later in Connacht, east Munster and eventually into Leinster by afternoon. While 15-30 mm could fall this morning in the southwest, about 10 to 15 mm is the more likely amount further north and east. Ahead of the rain it may be partly cloudy for part of the morning, and once the rain passes in the southwest, skies will brighten gradually there as well. Highs about 11 C and winds from southeast 50-70 km/hr ahead of the rain, falling off to south or southwest 30-50 km/hr later on.

TONIGHT ... Remnant showers will continue to affect parts of Leinster and east Ulster before dissipating, elsewhere it will be partly cloudy and rather mild with lows around 5 to 7 C. Some patchy dense fog is likely over central counties.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud and outbreaks of light rain mainly near southeast coasts, moderate southerly winds and highs 9-11 C.

FRIDAY ... Rain spreading in from the south, 10-20 mm amounts likely, heavier in Munster than elsewhere, lows 5-8 C and highs 10-12 C. Moderate southeast winds at times.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, passing showers and turning a bit colder with winds becoming southwest 40-70 km/hr, lows around 2 to 4 C and highs 8-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Frosty to start, fog patches, then some sunshine, winds may be closer to calm under high pressure. Lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C.

MONDAY ... Rain at times, foggy, lows 3-5 C and highs 8-11 C. Sleet is possible on higher terrain in the north.

OUTLOOK ... Becoming windy, unsettled and colder again with temperatures in the 6-8 C range towards the end of the month.

Continued very cold in most of North America but warming slightly in the far west on Tuesday, my local weather was cloudy with a high near 11 C.

M.T. Cranium · 20-11-2014 09:13AM

Thursday, 20 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Widespread dense fog over inland south, central counties may persist for several hours, gradually lifting to patchy low cloud. Sunshine will be more likely near coasts and in parts of Ulster, as showers die out in eastern Ulster this morning. This may result in a variation in today's high temperatures, with 9-11 C possible where it clears, but 6-8 C more probable under persistent cloud. Light southeast winds will freshen later in west Munster. A few isolated showers will develop near the southeast coast.

TONIGHT ... Becoming mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain mainly near southwest coasts, moderate southeasterrly winds and lows 5-7 C.

FRIDAY ... Rain spreading in from the south, 10-20 mm amounts likely, heavier in Munster than elsewhere, highs 10-12 C. Moderate southeast winds at times 50-70 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, passing showers and turning a bit colder with winds becoming southwest 40-70 km/hr, lows around 2 to 4 C and highs 8-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Frosty to start, fog patches, then some sunshine, winds may be closer to calm under high pressure. Lows near -2 C inland, +2 C urban and coastal areas, and highs near 7 C.

MONDAY ... Dry to start with fog and frost, increasing cloud, rain spreading onto western coasts by afternoon or evening. Lows near -2 C east, +3 C west and highs 7-9 C.

TUESDAY ... Light rain at times, foggy, lows 3-5 C and highs 8-10 C. Sleet is possible on higher terrain in the north.

OUTLOOK ... Continued rather cold and unsettled with a growing risk of wintry showers on higher terrain at least in northern regions. At lower elevations highs will average 5 to 7 C, with frequent frosts and scattered 3-5 mm rainfall amounts that will include some hail at times.

Heavy lake effect snow has resumed in Buffalo NY and also covers many other parts of the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, my local weather on Wednesday was pleasantly mild, cloudy with a high near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 21-11-2014 08:17AM

Friday, 21 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain will continue to spread gradually northeast and there may be some rather heavy falls in the south (20-25 mm) while 10-20 mm will be the rule elsewhere. Some fog may develop over higher terrain, winds from the southeast at 50-70 km/hr. Highs 10-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain tapering to drizzle, fog and turning somewhat colder with lows generally 2-6 C. There could be some frost by morning in a few parts of the inland west.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, passing showers and turning a bit colder with winds becoming southwest 40-70 km/hr, lows around 2 to 4 C and highs 8-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Frosty to start, fog patches, then some sunshine, winds may be closer to calm under high pressure. Lows near -2 C inland, +2 C urban and coastal areas, and highs near 7 C.

MONDAY ... Dry to start with fog and frost, increasing cloud, rain spreading onto western as well as eastern coasts (from separate frontal bands) by afternoon or evening. Lows near -2 C east, +3 C west and highs 7-9 C.

TUESDAY ... Areas of light rain will continue to drift further north and also inland from the east coast, and it will continue to be somewhat chilly with lows around 2-4 C and highs 6-8 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The models continue to show colder air massing on either side of the ever weakening milder sector over Ireland, but signals are mixed about whether either cold pool to the west or east might succeed in displacing the (somewhat) milder air, or if this standoff will just continue for another week. The best bet is to expect dull, somewhat unsettled weather with temperatures not far from 6 or 7 C.

For Britain, the main difference from all of the above may be that sharper frosts could develop over the weekend and the weak patterns next week may bring somewhat heavier rain to parts of England at times. If this pattern were to continue much longer, there could be a mass extinction of weather forum weenies, but the general public will probably just think the weather is a little on the bland side of normal. This is far from being the case in the Great Lakes region where very heavy snow packs are now about to be threatened by much milder temperatures (reaching 10-15 C by Monday) and rain. There could be some very severe flooding and the risk of roof collapses in hardest hit places such as Buffalo and central Ontario. Western regions have turned quite mild and some heavy rain is moving in towards my location for Friday, but the weather on Thursday was simply dull and drizzly with a high near 11 C.

M.T. Cranium · 22-11-2014 07:22AM

Saturday, 22 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: New moon occurs today at 12:33 and if the sun went dark the Moon would be seen just above it with the planet Saturn very close by, as that planet is currently on the far side of the solar system from us. However, the sun will likely not go dark so this is all hypothetical.

A gradual cooling trend is now about to begin ...

TODAY may not get any warmer than the current morning temperatures to give highs of 10 or 11 C. There will be scattered showers for a while, then some clearing, but followed by a few more showers. Afternoon temperatures may be down a few degrees, around 7 or 8 C. Moderate westerly winds will develop, but it will become calm in many areas by evening.

TONIGHT will feature some sharp frosts, some fog after midnight in a few inland valleys, and widespread clear intervals. Lows -3 to +3 C.

SUNDAY will bring considerable dry weather and some sunshine, but a few showers will develop in western counties mostly. Rather cold with highs near 7 or 8 C.

MONDAY will also start with sharp frosts and lows of -4 to +2 C. Increasing cloud in the west, milder with highs near 10 C, but sunshine in parts of the east and north, cold during the day and first part of the following night, highs about 5-7 C.

TUESDAY will bring intervals of light rain or drizzle, mostly across western counties, lows 2-4 C west, -3 to +1 C east. Highs generally 7-9 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will be unsettled and cool with occasional light rain or drizzle, some fog and if there's any clearing at night, slight frosts could develop. Generally, lows 2-4 C and highs 7-9 C.

OUTLOOK -- Colder near the end of the month with some potential for sleet or snow, as well as cold rain near sea level. Highs may be in the 3-6 C range. The first part of December then looks rather variable with some milder rainy days and some frosty but dry intervals.

See previous forecast for details on Britain and North America. The lake effect snow storm has ended and residents of the Great Lakes snow belts are now preparing for a melt on Sunday and Monday. That rain has just moved through my location on Friday (35 mm fell) and it was mild with a high of 12 C.

M.T. Cranium · 23-11-2014 09:28AM

Sunday, 23 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Increasing cloud with a few rather sleety showers developing, possible snow for western summits. More sunshine likely in eastern counties. Rather cold with highs of 6-8 C.

TONIGHT ... Sharp frosts will once again become widespread, some freezing fog patches, lows -4 to +2 C.

MONDAY ... Some morning sunshine where fog lifts, slow to warm up despite the sunshine, but eventually highs reaching 6-8 C with isolated showers mainly over western counties.

TUESDAY ... Some drizzle or light rain in west, partly cloudy in east, cold. Morning lows -3 to +3 C and highs 7-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy, some dense fog patches, lows 0-3 C and highs 7-10 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Milder, some rain at times, becoming rather windy (southerly 50-80 km/hr), highs near 10 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Turning colder in stages, wintry showers developing, lows near 2 C and highs near 6 C.

Great Lakes snow belts are bracing for extensive melting of their heavy snow packs followed by rain tonight and Monday. A few severe storms will hit parts of the southeastern U.S., while out west the weather will remain rather mild.

My local weather on Saturday became pleasantly sunny with a high near 10 C.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Comments