Price Changes FPL 14/15 **Mod warning 1st post**

AlanDeGenerous wrote: »

Adebayor falling is interesting? I wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole! Can't buy a goal lately.

100 PL goals in 219 appearances indicate this run won't last forever. 11 goals in 21 games last year.

AlanDeGenerous wrote: »

Adebayor falling is interesting? I wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole! Can't buy a goal lately.

Well Lemlin quoted his stats for me.

Lemlin wrote: »

100 PL goals in 219 appearances indicate this run won't last forever. 11 goals in 21 games last year.

Adebayor getting closer to the £8m mark (or even below but I doubt that) would certainly attract my interest. As a 3rd striker he could be a great option. Like Lukaku. These strikers are not great footballers but that's not what matters here. What matters is their FF potential. And they proved many times they're worth the money.
Adebayor is crap now. OK. Good. Actually great. Let his price plummet. And maybe in a month when he'll hit a hot streak he'll be easier to fit in. Granted he's not a consistent (FF) player giving returns every week. But he showed many times that he has runs where he's scoring a lot then vanish for a few weeks then scores again and re-disappear etc...

Shaque attack wrote: »

It's a much easier concept to believe a player playing well will regress to their mean of not scoring regularly than the other way around.

I don't know if you apply that to Adebayor but the stats Lemlin showed proved your theory is not fitting with him.

Shaque attack wrote: »

I was thinking generally but how does Lemlins stats show that this doesn't fit for Adebayor?

The way I'm looking at it is that over his last 219 apps he gets a goal every 2.19 games. He hasn't scored in his last 5 league games so I would be expecting him to come good sooner rather than later.


I know that's a smallish sample size and obv other variables to take into account (new manager etc.) but that's just how I'm looking at players regressing to their mean.

If he drops another .1 or .2 I think he has a place as my 3rd striker as well.

So he plummets another .2 over the next month or so, then leaves the for ACN at the start of January? Doesn't seem worth it IMO

Lucas Hood wrote: »

Lemlin stats are wrong. He's only 95 goals in 224 games.
http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/players/profile.html/emmanuel-adebayor

Got them off wiki so they may well be. It's much of a muchness to be honest. That's a decent goal scoring record for a player available for 8.4 million.

manual_man wrote: »

Adebayor is only really worth having when he's on one of his really hot streaks. These hot streaks are usually preceded by a period out of the team, from which he returns 'stung' by the criticism and with a 'point' to prove. He then goes on the hot streak, and he is a great fpl asset during this time and it's brilliant... BUT, and this is a big but, it's almost inevitable that he eventually returns to the lazy Adebayor that so frustrates (i think that's where we're at now)... and so the cycle continues...

Very similar to Lukaku in that regard. I reckon both were about 0.5/1.0 too expensive at the start of the year. 8m for either would have been tempting but not likely to get either of them in this side of Christmas I reckon.

Shaque attack wrote: »

I was thinking generally but how does Lemlins stats show that this doesn't fit for Adebayor?

I might have misinterpreted your sentence but when you implied that it's a lot more complicated to expect a non performing player to perform, I found Lemlin stats showing that Adebayor scoring record proved that even if he can be mute for several games as he's being now, he can still score enough to get an overall decent socring record in PL.

Anyway I agree with your previous post and what you outlined is exactly the reason why I showed some interest for him this morning .

Lucas Hood wrote: »

Lemlin stats are wrong. He's only 95 goals in 224 games.
http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/players/profile.html/emmanuel-adebayor

Don't know if it was supposed to be tongue in cheek but looks much of a muchness to me :P.

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Anyway, as it's been said I'll keep an eye on Ade if he continues to drop and if it looks like the circumstances favour his annual hot streak :pac: I'll give him a go. That said there's 2 big "if" in my sentence :rolleyes:...

After several hours of exciting analysis I have concluded that Adebayor is still a bad purchase.

5 fallers last night, balotelli the only major one. No risers

Sterling went up to 9m last night.

2 fallers. Knockaert and Alvarez

Surprised Aguero didn't go up this week.

GiftofGab wrote: »

Surprised Aguero didn't go up this week.

He will be going up sat night;)

FHFC wrote: »

He could possibly go up tonight.

NTIs are pretty slow though, I'd imagine because at this stage it would take a bit of surgery for most to fit him in. Hopefully he remains a bit of a differential now before becoming essential after his hat trick against Spurs.

Despite not captaining him this weekend, I would love Aguero to do well. It would result in a few hits for others as they try to work him into their teams. I still feel he will prove himself to be essential.

Any sign of Azpi moving? I have exactly 2.0 mil in the bank to move a 4 mild defender out for him next week.

FHFC wrote: »

Hes around 6th most transferred in today, but well off a rise according to both sites. Unlikely to go up tonight I'd say, but not impossible.

I'll take my chances. Not going to take a hit.

Pelle, ADM and possibly Aguero look probable to go up tonight.

G1032 wrote: »

Downing went up to 5.7m last night

11 price decreases including Rooney (now 10.2) and Ward-Prowse.

Interesting.

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iroced wrote: »

Update 4 days later.


FPL figures: transfer in/out for the ongoing round

Azpi. 25203 in / 2188 out
Forster. 8533 in / 2428 out
Moore. 4888 in / 1311 out
Krul. 1123 in / 10341 out


fiso figures: target % / ownership / NTI/O today

Azpi. +19.5% / 321936. +828
Forster. +64.2% / 204141 / +153
Moore. + 50.3% / 93782 / +106
Krul. -30.2% / 589548 / -221


fpls figures: target % / ownership / additional NTI/O needed to reach threshold (edited that last one, labelled it wrong in my original post)

Azpi. +26.2% / 321649 / 42062
Forster. +51.0% / 204075 / 27907
Moore. + 67.9% / 93741 / 18293
Krul. -28.5% / 589586 / 160085


To summarise, here's a table with the average move per day over the last 4 days of these 4 players. If it goes on like that at least up to midweek next week, we shall not worry about any price change until then .

Player|transfers per day|fiso target % per day|fpls target % per day
Azpi|2712|3.6|4.8
Forster|546|0.7|1.9
Moore|440|0.6|2
Krul|-920|-1.1|-0.4

That was spot on, they did not move :cool:.

Update 7 days later.

I'm not sure how worth it is to include Krul. He was yellow flagged for a couple of days. His flag is removed now. Can't remember if the target is reset to 0 when yellow flags are removed. Fiso did it. Not fpls.


And the table with the average move per day over the last 7 days for these same 4 players. Fairly steady transfer activity. Just Azpi with a stronger activity with the deadline approaching. But none of them should see its price change tonight based on these figures. We'll see...