Price Changes FPL 14/15 **Mod warning 1st post**

G1032

I'm not sure if this has been mentioned here before but FPLStatistics are requesting that those who have used their wildcards submit their team ID to help them improve the accuracy of price change predictions. See link below.

http://www.fplstatistics.co.uk/WC/CreateWCID

FHFC

Invincible wrote: »

You're some statistican for one man

Engineer. Almost as anal. Let's just say like to know how things work...

Easy enough to pull the full list of price changes off FISO and sort in a spreadsheet though.

Big Borg

km79 wrote: »

some people think it may not be savvy bringing in Silva prior to champ league game though ?

Silva has been brilliant!! No injury concerns.

bezuaua

until next GW will aguero/azpilicueta rise or ivanovic/welbeck drop??????????????????

I've exactly the requested for the transfers but I would like to avoid a -4...

FHFC

bezuaua wrote: »

until next GW will aguero/azpilicueta rise or ivanovic/welbeck drop??????????????????

I've exactly the requested for the transfers but I would like to avoid a -4...

Aguero rising is certainly possible, but not imminent. None of the others likely.

bezuaua

FHFC wrote: »

Aguero rising is certainly possible, but not imminent. None of the others likely.

I guess -4 (1st hit of the season) will not hurt me too much... :pac:

5pts behind 1st in pay league and none has kun... I guess it´s worth the differential...

PARlance

Invincible wrote: »

You're some statistican for one man

He is probably just plucking those figures out of his anal... Nobody is going to bother to check them

Mr.Prodston

Invincible wrote: »

You're some statistican for one man

He's the Statman

FHFC

PARlance wrote: »

He is probably just plucking those figures out of his anal... Nobody is going to bother to check them

76% of my figures are indeed made up, but only 37% of the time.

Big Borg

You guys are funny!!!

G1032

Schneiderlin (5.9) and Chambers (4.6) up

Walker, Rooney (10.3), Dawson and Isla down

km79

Chambers up ? Damn it!!! He was only at 60% and going nowhere fast yday

SlickRic

km79 wrote: »

Chambers up ? Damn it!!! He was only at 60% and going nowhere fast yday

Nobody should be getting Chambers this week.

km79

SlickRic wrote: »

Nobody should be getting Chambers this week.

I have 2 free transfers and have to use one. I won't even be playing him this week. I know he is on 4 yellows but at his price playing for arsenal I'd be happy to have him even if he missed one game.
I'm also considering muniesa or Wilson tho in a straight stoke swap ! It's pieters that's going

SantryRed

FHFC wrote: »

Meanwhile, up to last night we now have a total of 556 price drops to 96 rises this season.

Total gains of 9.6m v losses of 55.6m so value overall is down by 46m.

Thats a further nett devaluation of 7.3m since I did a similar analysis (See post in team value thread) a week ago.

And yes, it is indeed a slow day at work....

I think the amount of drops will be advantageous in the January wildcard. There will be some bargains with players coming back from injury, and hopefully a dud midfielder could be about 4m!

Neoulous

Ah sh*t Rooney dropped :mad:... Thought he was far from it... This is becoming ridiculous now. We're getting forced into transfering early... pffff... :rolleyes:...

jamesbere

G1032 wrote: »

Schneiderlin (5.9) and Chambers (4.6) up

Walker, Rooney (10.3), Dawson and Isla down

And I was going to get rid of Schneiderlin, happy I stuck with him now. That rise will come in handy.

keano_afc

I was hoping Rooney would stay at 10.4 too. Might have to transfer him early if he's going to go down again. Dont like using it early in a Champions League week.

AlanDeGenerous

Wouldn't be surprised if he dropped by another .2 to be honest. Those waiting around till after CL matches will have him out tonight, and then the "casuals" will have him gone on Friday night.

Took the risk on Sunday and got Aguero in for him, delighted he came through unscathed!

FHFC

Scneiderlin & Chambers up. As noted Chambers was nowhere near on either site. Schneiderlin has been predicted to rise on FISO for dayds now but was only at around 94% on FPLS.

Pure hit and miss this time. You'd have to think Shawcross and Fabianski must be getting close though.

Lucas Hood

To be fair that's not really accurate as there is another 4 hours for transfers to be made.
Changes don't occur till 2.40ish.

CSF

Relieved enough that I pulled the Rooney trigger last night now.

FHFC

Lucas Hood wrote: »

To be fair that's not really accurate as there is another 4 hours for transfers to be made.
Changes don't occur till 2.40ish.

I doubt there are huge amounts of transfers made between 11pm and 2.40 am on a Tuesday evening. Its indicative. Chambers hardly got enough to take him from 60% to a over 100, while obviously if anyone in the high 90s on FPLS went up you'd have to call that as a correct prediction.

Feel free to sit up till half two to take a screenshot if you like!!

G1032

Lucas Hood wrote: »

To be fair that's not really accurate as there is another 4 hours for transfers to be made.
Changes don't occur till 2.40ish.

FHFC wrote: »

I doubt there are huge amounts of transfers made between 11pm and 2.40 am on a Tuesday evening. Its indicative. Chambers hardly got enough to take him from 60% to a over 100, while obviously if anyone in the high 90s on FPLS went up you'd have to call that as a correct prediction.

Feel free to sit up till half two to take a screenshot if you like!!

To be fair to Lucas Hood here there was movement on Fabinanski in only a couple of hours. Movement downwards!

At about 21:00 he was at 99.5% according to FPLS and had risen from 99.3% earlier in the evening.

Your screenshot shows that he dropped to 99.1 by 22:40

I made the move of Krul to Fabianski last night because I saw he was rising bit by bit according to FPLS and it looked like he was heading over the 100% last night.

FHFC

G1032 wrote: »

To be fair to Lucas Hood here there was movement on Fabinanski in only a couple of hours. Movement downwards!

At about 21:00 he was at 99.5% according to FPLS and had risen from 99.3% earlier in the evening.

Your screenshot shows that he dropped to 99.1 by 22:40

I made the move of Krul to Fabianski last night because I saw he was rising bit by bit according to FPLS and it looked like he was heading over the 100% last night.

It is hardly worth worrying about a fraction of a percent, given the overall inaccuracy of the whole thing. We are nowhere near to a situation where any site can be considered accurate enough to be able to say with any certainty that somebody on 98% (at 2.40am) won't rise while somebody on 102% will.

The point of what I am trying to do is keep a close eye on the two semi-functioning predictions sites performance to see if we are getting any closer to a stage where we can start to trust one or other of them a small bit. I'd be delighted if I could get one of them accurate to within 5% never mind 0.5%!! Or even a situation where the (for example) 5 players who rose of an evening were at least the top 5 players on the list on FPLS for example, even if they were only showing 95%. But so far its not happening.

For a while FPLS seemed to be getting it right quite a bit, but the likes of Chambers last night, as well as a few others if you look back through the posts shows that while the players in the 98% and upwards on FPLS seem to be pretty likely to rise, you can still get the odd rouge rise from a guy who is sitting on 60%. (Edit: Dzeko and Baines would be other good examples of this)

G1032

FHFC wrote: »

I'd be delighted if I could get one of them accurate to within 5%

Best thing people here could do is what the tracking sites are asking us to do and try get as many people as possible to do this........

http://www.fplstatistics.co.uk/WC/CreateWCID

G1032

FHFC wrote: »

It is hardly worth worrying about a fraction of a percent, given the overall inaccuracy of the whole thing. We are nowhere near to a situation where any site can be considered accurate enough to be able to say with any certainty that somebody on 98% (at 2.40am) won't rise while somebody on 102% will.

The point of what I am trying to do is keep a close eye on the two semi-functioning predictions sites performance to see if we are getting any closer to a stage where we can start to trust one or other of them a small bit. I'd be delighted if I could get one of them accurate to within 5% never mind 0.5%!! Or even a situation where the (for example) 5 players who rose of an evening were at least the top 5 players on the list on FPLS for example, even if they were only showing 95%. But so far its not happening.

For a while FPLS seemed to be getting it right quite a bit, but the likes of Chambers last night, as well as a few others if you look back through the posts shows that while the players in the 98% and upwards on FPLS seem to be pretty likely to rise, you can still get the odd rouge rise from a guy who is sitting on 60%. (Edit: Dzeko and Baines would be other good examples of this)

FPLS a bit all over the place today. Fabianski gone from 103% to 98.7 over the last half hour or so. A few others have also dropped from over 100% to below it now.

greedygoblin

G1032 wrote: »

FPLS a bit all over the place today. Fabianski gone from 103% to 98.7 over the last half hour or so. A few others have also dropped from over 100% to below it now.

Rather than a lot of people transferring Fabianski out, I'd say it's down to FPLS adjusting their algorithm. FISO are showing 842 NTI for Fabianski so far today too...

FHFC

greedygoblin wrote: »

Rather than a lot of people transferring Fabianski out, I'd say it's down to FPLS adjusting their algorithm. FISO are showing 842 NTI for Fabianski so far today too...

Exactly this. FPLS seem to be proactively readjusting when what they predict to happen, doesn't happen. FISO are leaving players at 150% to a rise rather than adjusting their thresholds when the predicted rise didn't happen. Total FPL are all over the place in this regard.

CSF

FHFC wrote: »

Exactly this. FPLS seem to be proactively readjusting when what they predict to happen, doesn't happen. FISO are leaving players at 150% to a rise rather than adjusting their thresholds when the predicted rise didn't happen. Total FPL are all over the place in this regard.

I would happily listen to you talk stats all day without having a breeze what it means.