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Timmaay · 23-02-2014 09:58PM

Thronegames wrote: »

5. I know it's a leveraged position and you stand to make big gains or big losses. How can you limit your losses?
6. If I wanted to open a demo account, what site would you recommend for spread betting? I am too inexperienced in the field to go live. I just want to learn.

Arrow I hope ya don't mine me gatecrashing these two questions ha.

Question 5, Anyways this is easy. Just follow the 2% rule. Say you have 10k which you are investing. Open a spread betting account, and put 200quid (2% of the 10k) in it as trading cash. Do whatever you want with the rest, in the bank, under the mattress etc ha, once its safe, ie dont go invest the lot in some other shares! Your stop loss is 200quid in this case, so make sure your stake is low enough that your stop loss doesn't go over this 200quid. The 2% rule basically means that you could say have 5 losses in a row and still have only lost 10% of you overall capital. Its probably the biggest downfall of any beginners to spreadbetting, they put in too much money into the spreadbetting account, and then take out a stake size in way too big, without realizing how quickly they can blow the full balance.

Question 6, I'm using Shelbourne markets at the minute, The real money platform has a fairly low minimum stake level (20cent/pip for most markets), and it also has a demo account, to allow you to test out the system. The demo account usually starts out with 10k of a fund, which would be mad for any beginner to have in a live account.

arrowloopboy · 23-02-2014 11:38PM

Thronegames wrote: »

Arrow, please tolerate my presence as a relative newbie. I've read the thread a few times and I'm fascinated. I want to learn a little and would appreciate your forbearance in commenting on my questions as follows:

1. My understanding is that you went long on FTSE 100, entering at about 6400 with target exit of 7200 by Jan 1 2015. Again please let me emphasise that I am looking for advice only.
2. What broker / online account have you used?
3. You have no stop-loss currently. So what happens to your position in the short term if there is some kind of Lehman Bros - like event leading to contagion or some other catastrophic event? How quickly can you exit the position?
4. I would not have enough confidence in my ability to place such a trade. What was your rationale for doing so in the first place?
5. I know it's a leveraged position and you stand to make big gains or big losses. How can you limit your losses?
6. If I wanted to open a demo account, what site would you recommend for spread betting? I am too inexperienced in the field to go live. I just want to learn.

Seriously good luck with that trade and prima facie it seems logical...but maybe a bit late?...like sentiment turned in Q2 y13? Again: I'm just trying to learn a bit and would appreciate advice.

Glad to nhelp Throne,

1. Spot on.
2. IG INDEX ,the biggest ,the best,operating since 1979,the longist running s/b company,offer quotes on everything I trade.
3.Read post 30.I can exit in seconds.
4.Statistics ,the FTSE advances most in Q1 and Q4,well since 1980 anyway,and I wasn't expecting a drop back to 6400.00 after Christmas,when it did ,I filled my boots,potential for more upside than I was expecting.
5.i can't loose money on this trade with my s/l set 100 pts above entry level.(post 30)
6.IG Index,i'm not a massive fan of demo acc,from a trading point of view,but are invaluable for getting you accustomed with the platform,and how to make a trade and how to manage a trade.

Arrow.

arrowloopboy · 24-02-2014 07:42PM

FTE100 currently at 6875.00 or plus 460 odd points ,booya:D.

odd1 · 01-03-2014 09:51PM

Thronegames wrote: »

Arrow, please tolerate my presence as a relative newbie. I've read the thread a few times and I'm fascinated. I want to learn a little and would appreciate your forbearance in commenting on my questions as follows:

1. My understanding is that you went long on FTSE 100, entering at about 6400 with target exit of 7200 by Jan 1 2015. Again please let me emphasise that I am looking for advice only.
2. What broker / online account have you used?
3. You have no stop-loss currently. So what happens to your position in the short term if there is some kind of Lehman Bros - like event leading to contagion or some other catastrophic event? How quickly can you exit the position?
4. I would not have enough confidence in my ability to place such a trade. What was your rationale for doing so in the first place?
5. I know it's a leveraged position and you stand to make big gains or big losses. How can you limit your losses?
6. If I wanted to open a demo account, what site would you recommend for spread betting? I am too inexperienced in the field to go live. I just want to learn.

Seriously good luck with that trade and prima facie it seems logical...but maybe a bit late?...like sentiment turned in Q2 y13? Again: I'm just trying to learn a bit and would appreciate advice.

Q3.
The OP has a stop loss set 100 points or so above his entry point, so if triggered would be a 100 point winner.

However if there was a black swan event like Lehman brothers as you say and the Ftse was to open 1000 points lower (unlikely)on Monday morning for example, the OP stop loss would be triggered but filled at a price nearer the opening price.

So in theory it could be a couple of hundred points loss, unless of course it's a guaranteed stop loss.

arrowloopboy · 01-03-2014 11:13PM

odd1 wrote: »

Q3.
The OP has a stop loss set 100 points or so above his entry point, so if triggered would be a 100 point winner.

However if there was a black swan event like Lehman brothers as you say and the Ftse was to open 1000 points lower (unlikely)on Monday morning for example, the OP stop loss would be triggered but filled at a price nearer the opening price.

So in theory it could be a couple of hundred points loss, unless of course it's a guaranteed stop loss.

Its not a guaranteed stop ,a major cluster fcuk event like Lehman Bros is not unlikely ,its extremely unlikely ,very unporable ,and I trade probabilities ,with winning edges ,that's why I'm a consistent winner :eek: Simples.

ixus · 02-03-2014 04:19PM

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Its not a guaranteed stop ,a major cluster fcuk event like Lehman Bros is not unlikely ,its extremely unlikely ,very unporable ,and I trade probabilities ,with winning edges ,that's why I'm a consistent winner :eek: Simples.

Did you really just write that on a weekend when Russia escalated tensions with the West? I'll be surprised if ftse doesn't gap down on open. How events unfold from here on in have nothing to do with the type of probabilities you discuss.

As it stands right now, your position is likely safe but events have been escalating every few hours. If someone pulls a trigger...

arrowloopboy · 02-03-2014 04:48PM

ixus wrote: »

Did you really just write that on a weekend when Russia escalated tensions with the West? I'll be surprised if ftse doesn't gap down on open. How events unfold from here on in have nothing to do with the type of probabilities you discuss.

As it stands right now, your position is likely safe but events have been escalating every few hours. If someone pulls a trigger...

Unfortunately ixus ,I can't factor in stuff that may or may not happen a month after I open a trade, I can only trade whats in front of me when I pull the trigger:D,i'm trading a very reliable edge (over time) ,which as you should well know ,pays off in the long run.

This will be another winner for me,i've no doubt,and I'm sure ye will be all thrilled for me when it is :rolleyes::eek:,think its an irish thing.

ixus · 02-03-2014 06:21PM

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Unfortunately ixus ,I can't factor in stuff that may or may not happen a month after I open a trade, I can only trade whats in front of me when I pull the trigger:D,i'm trading a very reliable edge (over time) ,which as you should well know ,pays off in the long run.

This will be another winner for me,i've no doubt,and I'm sure ye will be all thrilled for me when it is :rolleyes::eek:,think its an irish thing.

My comment has nothing to do with your entry, one I've already praised. It's with your remark (below) given events unfolding:

arrowloopboy wrote: »

a major cluster fcuk event like Lehman Bros is not unlikely ,its extremely unlikely

Doves released in the Vatican as a gesture of peace in Ukraine are immediately ATTACKED by vicious seagull and crow

arrowloopboy · 02-03-2014 09:07PM

How will said tensions affect gas/oil /wheat prices I wonder ?
I usually trade this set up from start of Q4 t end of Q1,which I did in October,it has a higher probability of winning in a shorter t/f,have a look see at the stats ,they may be of intrest to you .
On a more humane note,i hope theres no more bloodshed on the streets of Kiev in the coming days .

arrowloopboy · 03-03-2014 10:01AM

Positioned closed last night shortly after the opening at 6767.00,or +350 odd points,will resume after Russian situation is sorted out.

FTSE currently at 6727.00
DAX down over 2% at min.
Gold climbing.

odd1 · 03-03-2014 11:12AM

Well done on your profit.

Fair play

arrowloopboy · 03-03-2014 01:53PM

Ftse currently at 6675.0 , my only regret is I didn't short it last night .

Thronegames · 03-03-2014 08:03PM

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Positioned closed last night shortly after the opening at 6767.00,or +350 odd points,will resume after Russian situation is sorted out.

FTSE currently at 6727.00
DAX down over 2% at min.
Gold climbing.

Arrow, as a learner, I am seriously impressed! BUT I just wonder if Putin's actions in Crimea equate to what odd1 refers to a s a 'Black Swan', i.e. a Lehman Bros- like event? My guess is that it's not of that magnitude. Will you re-open your position when FTSE hits what you consider to be the bottom based on current developments? I don't know what your stake was but congratulations on your profit!! Yes I am inexperienced but have learned to take profit and walk away.

arrowloopboy · 04-03-2014 12:24AM

Thronegames wrote: »

Arrow, as a learner, I am seriously impressed! BUT I just wonder if Putin's actions in Crimea equate to what odd1 refers to a s a 'Black Swan', i.e. a Lehman Bros- like event? My guess is that it's not of that magnitude. Will you re-open your position when FTSE hits what you consider to be the bottom based on current developments? I don't know what your stake was but congratulations on your profit!! Yes I am inexperienced but have learned to take profit and walk away.

I don't think its a ''black swan'' event,but it knocked about 2% off the FTSE today and about 3 off the DAX ,I will definatly re enter when I think the time is right,the FTSE won;'t just sail through 7000.00 ,there should be ample oppertuntiies to re enter at a lower level that I close at.
Around 6600.00 would be lovely:D or lower,have to wait see what happens in the Crimea.

arrowloopboy · 04-03-2014 03:00AM

To be resumed !!!

arrowloopboy · 11-03-2014 08:32PM

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Positioned closed last night shortly after the opening at 6767.00,or +350 odd points,will resume after Russian situation is sorted out.

FTSE currently at 6727.00
DAX down over 2% at min.
Gold climbing.

Finger getting itchy again ,

To recap, opened FTSE annual at 6410.00, target 7200.00
Closed it at start of Russian sh1t at 6767.00 (+ 350 pts )
FTSE currently at 6650.00 .
Looking to resume this trade at 6600.00 or lower ( a big discount from where I exited ).
This Russian thing has still more to go ,and Q1 is nearly over,hopefully an opportunity will arise in the next month.

Arrow

dealhunter1985 · 12-03-2014 02:48PM

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Finger getting itchy again ,

To recap, opened FTSE annual at 6410.00, target 7200.00
Closed it at start of Russian sh1t at 6767.00 (+ 350 pts )
FTSE currently at 6650.00 .
Looking to resume this trade at 6600.00 or lower ( a big discount from where I exited ).
This Russian thing has still more to go ,and Q1 is nearly over,hopefully an opportunity will arise in the next month.

Arrow

There's your entry point now.
Are you gonna take the plunge? I wouldnt

arrowloopboy · 12-03-2014 03:33PM

dealhunter1985 wrote: »

There's your entry point now.
Are you gonna take the plunge? I wouldnt

or lower

.

arrowloopboy · 05-08-2014 02:41PM

arrowloopboy wrote: »

or lower .

Trade resumed.... Just re entered this ftse annual trade at the spot price @ 6680.00 , details later .

arrowloopboy · 12-09-2014 01:32PM

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Trade resumed.... Just re entered this ftse annual trade at the spot price @ 6680.00 , details later .

Trade closed @ 6820.00 ( + 140 points ) markets nervous over Scotland , will resume after vote and things settle down .also shorted gbp/usd ,@ 16249.00, I think sterling has to weaken over weekend and next week prior to voteing .

ixus · 13-09-2014 12:15AM

I recall you taking this position (been a month already?!) . I was going to post that nothing had changed regards Ukraine but left it. Trade took a smoking that day on Ukraine newsflow.

Jackson Hole changed the trade.

Re Scotland: that trade is done. Fx shorts are in (it gapped lower last weekend after polls). Polls flipped back now. Gap nearly closed today.

The uncertainties ahead:
1. FOMC
2. Ukraine
3. Scotland

The biggest thing for me has been the weak equities reaction to ECB. That and the energy weakness.

arrowloopboy · 14-09-2014 06:16PM

ixus wrote: »

I recall you taking this position (been a month already?!) . I was going to post that nothing had changed regards Ukraine but left it. Trade took a smoking that day on Ukraine newsflow.

Jackson Hole changed the trade.

Re Scotland: that trade is done. Fx shorts are in (it gapped lower last weekend after polls). Polls flipped back now. Gap nearly closed today.

The uncertainties ahead:
1. FOMC
2. Ukraine
3. Scotland

The biggest thing for me has been the weak equities reaction to ECB. That and the energy weakness.

I think you can now also throw isis into the above mix .

arrowloopboy · 18-09-2014 11:19AM

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Trade closed @ 6820.00 ( + 140 points ) markets nervous over Scotland , will resume after vote and things settle down .also shorted gbp/usd ,@ 16249.00, I think sterling has to weaken over weekend and next week prior to voteing .

Gbp/usd trade closed @ 16305.00,in wake of a lightly no vote in Scotland , with a loss of 56points + spread . , looking to re entr ftse at sub 6800.00 level , today at some stage hopefully .

arrowloopboy · 19-09-2014 10:01AM

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Gbp/usd trade closed @ 16305.00,in wake of a lightly no vote in Scotland , with a loss of 56points + spread . , looking to re entr ftse at sub 6800.00 level , today at some stage hopefully .

Good call on Gdp/usd , made a bollox of the ftse trade , currently up at 6875.00 , should come back at some stage die to all the promises made to Scotland , not that they'll be delivered on ! , it's like promising a girl the sun moon and stars prior to having your wicked way with her

.

arrowloopboy · 22-09-2014 02:17PM

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Trade closed @ 6820.00 ( + 140 points ) markets nervous over Scotland , will resume after vote and things settle down .also shorted gbp/usd ,@ 16249.00, I think sterling has to weaken over weekend and next week prior to voteing .

FTSE Trade resumed Im a buyer at 6787.00 .

dealhunter1985 · 24-09-2014 01:21AM

what has been weighing on the markets the last couple of days?

ixus · 24-09-2014 07:58AM

China slowdown (hitting commodities & thus FTSE)
Dollar strength
US moves on Tax inversion (hitting pharma & thus FTSE)
Tesco affair also hitting FTSE
ECB - perception it won't be enough. European equities have been weak since ECB
Syria - maybe

End of Quarter coming too. It has been a big run up, time for profit taking.

dealhunter1985 · 26-09-2014 09:56AM

any chance of a rebound at all?
I'm in way over my head at 6686
Id rather lose it all than take the loss I'm currently holding..

arrowloopboy · 26-09-2014 09:29PM

arrowloopboy wrote: »

FTSE Trade resumed Im a buyer at 6787.00 .

Was stopped out at -100 points at 6687 ,on the 23rd,it was a sh1tty ill thought out entry , and I was duly chastised ,simples

. Theirs a lot of sh1t pulling down the FTSE at the min,keeping the powder in the hotpress for the time being .

arrowloopboy · 26-09-2014 09:37PM

dealhunter1985 wrote: »

any chance of a rebound at all?
I'm in way over my head at 6686
Id rather lose it all than take the loss I'm currently holding..

Currently at 6670.00,thats only 15 pips under your entry,if its a spreadbet I'd close it now,prior to rollover,and take a small loss ,thgeirs a possibility of a biggish gap down on opening Sunday night,impending military action against ISIL etc ,just my 2c worth.

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