***LIVE TRADE***

arrowloopboy

FTSE100 Annual

I am a buyer at 6219.00/6237.00 this is the Annual price ,it tracks the spot price point for point,FTSE 100 daily price at 6405.00/ 6410.00 right now.

Spread is 18 points to run the trade till Jan 2015.

Target daily price 7200.00 or their abouts,(800 points)

No stop Loss.

Arrow

odd1

arrowloopboy wrote: »

FTSE100 Annual

I am a buyer at 6219.00/6237.00 this is the Annual price ,it tracks the spot price point for point,FTSE 100 daily price at 6405.00/ 6410.00 right now.

Spread is 18 points to run the trade till Jan 2015.

Target daily price 7200.00 or their abouts,(800 points)

No stop Loss.

Arrow

Why no stop loss?

Any number of events could happen.

arrowloopboy

odd1 wrote: »

Why no stop loss?

Any number of events could happen.

I have a mental s/l at about 5800.00,thats about 600 points away or 10% ,whipsaw won't really affect my position,i'm not too bothered about a s/l for the time being .

odd1

arrowloopboy wrote: »

I have a mental s/l at about 5800.00,thats about 600 points away or 10% ,whipsaw won't really affect my position,i'm not too bothered about a s/l for the time being .

Risk/reward would be too low for me.

Good luck I hope it works out for you

arrowloopboy

odd1 wrote: »

Risk/reward would be too low for me.

Good luck I hope it works out for you

Cheers Odd1,

I understand where your coming from on the r/r,but 1/1 is o.k with me because I think theirs is much higher probability of the FTSE hitting 7200.00 rather than 5600.00 (or 5800.00 in my case).
Probabilities have to be taken into account when calculating R/R.

arrowloopboy

The entry looks to be a decent one,but this one has a long way to run,a good start is always nice,anyone else get involved ?

odd1

arrowloopboy wrote: »

FTSE100 Annual

I am a buyer at 6219.00/6237.00 this is the Annual price ,it tracks the spot price point for point,FTSE 100 daily price at 6405.00/ 6410.00 right now.

Spread is 18 points to run the trade till Jan 2015.

Target daily price 7200.00 or their abouts,(800 points)

No stop Loss.

Arrow

Hi arrow

Will you defend your gains today ahead of the non farm payrolls?

arrowloopboy

odd1 wrote: »

Hi arrow

Will you defend your gains today ahead of the non farm payrolls?

No,didn't bodder odd1 ,the gains I've made are small ,a couple of hundred points either way won't get me nervous/excited ,this is a long term buy and hold (well as spread bets go,long term).

aidanki

arrowloopboy wrote: »

No,didn't bodder odd1 ,the gains I've made are small ,a couple of hundred points either way won't get me nervous/excited ,this is a long term buy and hold (well as spread bets go,long term).

What's the longest you can let a spread bet run for ? You can hold shares for an eternity but just wondering about spreadbets

arrowloopboy

aidanki wrote: »

What's the longest you can let a spread bet run for ? You can hold shares for an eternity but just wondering about spreadbets

Aidan,

The bets are uaually daily bets(DFBs) near 1/4,6,9mts or on some bets ,like the FTSE100 annuals ,that start on Jan 1st for 1year.
The spread you pay gets bigger the longer the contract,but not proportionally .
The daily funded FTSE100 bet ,i.e from time of bet till expiry,10pm same day ,costs 2 points,and the annual I bought ,cost 18 points,to run the bet till next January.
These spreads vary slightly from firm to firm and and can widen duyring times of high volatility ,but only slightly.
You can also roll yor bet ,that means it doesn't close,you just pay an extra spread.

So ,in a nutshell,a spreadbet can also run long term,but the cost can get prohibitive ,they come into their own on sub 1yr positions.

arrowloopboy

Ticking along very nicely ,currently up 230 odd points,and more to come this week I think.

arrowloopboy

Currently up 330 points,or 1/3 of my 1yr target for this trade after 2 weeks,s/l set at break even plus 18pts for the spread,this is now a risk free ,emotion free trade ,for now:D.

odd1

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Currently up 330 points,or 1/3 of my 1yr target for this trade after 2 weeks,s/l set at break even plus 18pts for the spread,this is now a risk free ,emotion free trade ,for now:D.

Nice 1

Thronegames

Hi is there anyone out there who can help me with these questions: Firstly why are people still buying AIB shares -ref recent Irish Times article. Why do my trades not show up on Sharewatch site? (I use Davy online). Why have Oil stocks fallen so much in last year? Why do tiny trades appear on Sharewatch site? How can Conroy Gold be shown as +90% on day when only ONE share has been traded?

arrowloopboy

Thronegames wrote: »

Hi is there anyone out there who can help me with these questions: Firstly why are people still buying AIB shares -ref recent Irish Times article. Why do my trades not show up on Sharewatch site? (I use Davy online). Why have Oil stocks fallen so much in last year? Why do tiny trades appear on Sharewatch site? How can Conroy Gold be shown as +90% on day when only ONE share has been traded?

AHEM ,this thread is mine like ,dealing with a live trade,no harm done,try posting this on the main board,someone more knowledgeable that myself might be able to help.

Thargor

Just posting to subscribe to the thread, good going Arrowloopboy.

Thronegames

OK I didn't know the conversation belonged to you! And I haven't a clue about spread betting. G'luck and thanks

arrowloopboy

Thronegames wrote: »

OK I didn't know the conversation belonged to you! And I haven't a clue about spread betting. G'luck and thanks

Not at all T,i was just pointing out a wayword post by Thronegames looking for info on some other random stuff,
Spreadbetting is the same as regular trading,except its more suitable to sub 1yr positions ,and you can access a much larger position with the same amount of funds you'd buy a regular share with,and you pay no tax to the if you make money.

Thronegames

Sorry arrowloopboy for invading your space. Hope your cough gets better soon.

arrowloopboy

Thronegames wrote: »

Sorry arrowloopboy for invading your space. Hope your cough gets better soon.

:D:D,no bodders.

arrowloopboy

FTSE 100 dancing with 6800.00 or +400 pts or 6.5 % of my yearly 12% target after 2and half weeks.

ixus

Looks like a nice trade. I think entering the day before BOE (if I remember correctly) posed some extra risk but you stated your risk parameters.

FTSE has put in a big move relative to European's and US in the last two days. It's also ignoring fx for now. Decent Chinese data and some strong performance's from the miners have helped.

arrowloopboy

ixus wrote: »

Looks like a nice trade. I think entering the day before BOE (if I remember correctly) posed some extra risk but you stated your risk parameters.

FTSE has put in a big move relative to European's and US in the last two days. It's also ignoring fx for now. Decent Chinese data and some strong performance's from the miners have helped.

My entry was spectacular ,but hindsight is great.This trade could be cut short,and re entered in the Autumn,we'll see.

odd1

arrowloopboy wrote: »

My entry was spectacular ,but hindsight is great.This trade could be cut short,and re entered in the Autumn,we'll see.

What do you think Will drive the ftse to 7200?

arrowloopboy

odd1 wrote: »

What do you think Will drive the ftse to 7200?

Odd1,the bull market is still in tact,yes,their is a cluster fcuk coming,its fair to assume that the FTSE100 will add around 12% this year if said cluster fcuk doesn't materialise this year,thats the average return of the FTSE100 in normal Bull market years,this is based on historic data since 1980.
Goldman Sachs and a couple more big firms have called it at 7400.00 by end of year,i'm been conservative ,and I got in at a much better level that I thought I would.

With the current move of +400 points or 6.5% ,I have put in a stop loss ,at 6430.00 which means there is no way I can lose money on this trade,its emotion/risk free trade for me now,my favourite type of trade ,100% right squed .

odd1

On another thread you mentioned trading in the zone as a must read.... In it Douglas suggests taking 1/3 of your trade size off the table, for a risk free emotion free trade. It may serve you well in this trade.

Also if you truly believe your last post and you do as Douglas said, there should be no reason to cut your trade short.

Don't doubt yourself!!!

arrowloopboy

odd1 wrote: »

On another thread you mentioned trading in the zone as a must read.... In it Douglas suggests taking 1/3 of your trade size off the table, for a risk free emotion free trade. It may serve you well in this trade.

Also if you truly believe your last post and you do as Douglas said, there should be no reason to cut your trade short.

Don't doubt yourself!!!

No I'm not doubting myself odd1,i never do,i'm trading an edge with a positive expectancy ,I'm thinking of possibly bailing because of seasonality ,statistically Q1 and Q4 add about 5% each to the FTSE100 index ,with Q2 and Q3 usually a little better than flat,thats the only thing telling me I may be ahead of the game ,but i'll let it run for now.

ixus

Might help your trade.


Vodafone’s Verizon deal set to pump £10bn into UK equities

...British stock market following the sale of Vodafone’s stake in Verizon Wireless next month...launch an IPO. A top 20 investor in Vodafone said: “This will benefit the whole market...Wireless shares and £14.6bn in cash when Vodafone sells its 45 per cent stake in the US mobile... By Daniel Thomas and David Oakley in London

arrowloopboy

ixus wrote: »

Might help your trade.


Vodafone’s Verizon deal set to pump £10bn into UK equities

Thnks Ixus,you don't have a heads up or could make an educated guess on which exact equities there going to pump the said 10bn into do you

arrowloopboy

FTSE100 broke 6800.00 and reached around 6850.00 Friday,closed at 6807.00 for weekend,or + 400 pts or 6% of my 12% target for the year after3 weeks,s/l moved 6528 or plus 100pts of profit.

Thronegames

arrowloopboy wrote: »

FTSE100 broke 6800.00 and reached around 6850.00 Friday,closed at 6807.00 for weekend,or + 400 pts or 6% of my 12% target for the year after3 weeks,s/l moved 6528 or plus 100pts of profit.

Arrow, please tolerate my presence as a relative newbie. I've read the thread a few times and I'm fascinated. I want to learn a little and would appreciate your forbearance in commenting on my questions as follows:

1. My understanding is that you went long on FTSE 100, entering at about 6400 with target exit of 7200 by Jan 1 2015. Again please let me emphasise that I am looking for advice only.
2. What broker / online account have you used?
3. You have no stop-loss currently. So what happens to your position in the short term if there is some kind of Lehman Bros - like event leading to contagion or some other catastrophic event? How quickly can you exit the position?
4. I would not have enough confidence in my ability to place such a trade. What was your rationale for doing so in the first place?
5. I know it's a leveraged position and you stand to make big gains or big losses. How can you limit your losses?
6. If I wanted to open a demo account, what site would you recommend for spread betting? I am too inexperienced in the field to go live. I just want to learn.

Seriously good luck with that trade and prima facie it seems logical...but maybe a bit late?...like sentiment turned in Q2 y13? Again: I'm just trying to learn a bit and would appreciate advice.

Timmaay

Thronegames wrote: »

5. I know it's a leveraged position and you stand to make big gains or big losses. How can you limit your losses?
6. If I wanted to open a demo account, what site would you recommend for spread betting? I am too inexperienced in the field to go live. I just want to learn.

Arrow I hope ya don't mine me gatecrashing these two questions ha.

Question 5, Anyways this is easy. Just follow the 2% rule. Say you have 10k which you are investing. Open a spread betting account, and put 200quid (2% of the 10k) in it as trading cash. Do whatever you want with the rest, in the bank, under the mattress etc ha, once its safe, ie dont go invest the lot in some other shares! Your stop loss is 200quid in this case, so make sure your stake is low enough that your stop loss doesn't go over this 200quid. The 2% rule basically means that you could say have 5 losses in a row and still have only lost 10% of you overall capital. Its probably the biggest downfall of any beginners to spreadbetting, they put in too much money into the spreadbetting account, and then take out a stake size in way too big, without realizing how quickly they can blow the full balance.

Question 6, I'm using Shelbourne markets at the minute, The real money platform has a fairly low minimum stake level (20cent/pip for most markets), and it also has a demo account, to allow you to test out the system. The demo account usually starts out with 10k of a fund, which would be mad for any beginner to have in a live account.

arrowloopboy

Thronegames wrote: »

Arrow, please tolerate my presence as a relative newbie. I've read the thread a few times and I'm fascinated. I want to learn a little and would appreciate your forbearance in commenting on my questions as follows:

1. My understanding is that you went long on FTSE 100, entering at about 6400 with target exit of 7200 by Jan 1 2015. Again please let me emphasise that I am looking for advice only.
2. What broker / online account have you used?
3. You have no stop-loss currently. So what happens to your position in the short term if there is some kind of Lehman Bros - like event leading to contagion or some other catastrophic event? How quickly can you exit the position?
4. I would not have enough confidence in my ability to place such a trade. What was your rationale for doing so in the first place?
5. I know it's a leveraged position and you stand to make big gains or big losses. How can you limit your losses?
6. If I wanted to open a demo account, what site would you recommend for spread betting? I am too inexperienced in the field to go live. I just want to learn.

Seriously good luck with that trade and prima facie it seems logical...but maybe a bit late?...like sentiment turned in Q2 y13? Again: I'm just trying to learn a bit and would appreciate advice.

Glad to nhelp Throne,

1. Spot on.
2. IG INDEX ,the biggest ,the best,operating since 1979,the longist running s/b company,offer quotes on everything I trade.
3.Read post 30.I can exit in seconds.
4.Statistics ,the FTSE advances most in Q1 and Q4,well since 1980 anyway,and I wasn't expecting a drop back to 6400.00 after Christmas,when it did ,I filled my boots,potential for more upside than I was expecting.
5.i can't loose money on this trade with my s/l set 100 pts above entry level.(post 30)
6.IG Index,i'm not a massive fan of demo acc,from a trading point of view,but are invaluable for getting you accustomed with the platform,and how to make a trade and how to manage a trade.

Arrow.

arrowloopboy

FTE100 currently at 6875.00 or plus 460 odd points ,booya:D.

odd1

Thronegames wrote: »

Arrow, please tolerate my presence as a relative newbie. I've read the thread a few times and I'm fascinated. I want to learn a little and would appreciate your forbearance in commenting on my questions as follows:

1. My understanding is that you went long on FTSE 100, entering at about 6400 with target exit of 7200 by Jan 1 2015. Again please let me emphasise that I am looking for advice only.
2. What broker / online account have you used?
3. You have no stop-loss currently. So what happens to your position in the short term if there is some kind of Lehman Bros - like event leading to contagion or some other catastrophic event? How quickly can you exit the position?
4. I would not have enough confidence in my ability to place such a trade. What was your rationale for doing so in the first place?
5. I know it's a leveraged position and you stand to make big gains or big losses. How can you limit your losses?
6. If I wanted to open a demo account, what site would you recommend for spread betting? I am too inexperienced in the field to go live. I just want to learn.

Seriously good luck with that trade and prima facie it seems logical...but maybe a bit late?...like sentiment turned in Q2 y13? Again: I'm just trying to learn a bit and would appreciate advice.

Q3.
The OP has a stop loss set 100 points or so above his entry point, so if triggered would be a 100 point winner.

However if there was a black swan event like Lehman brothers as you say and the Ftse was to open 1000 points lower (unlikely)on Monday morning for example, the OP stop loss would be triggered but filled at a price nearer the opening price.

So in theory it could be a couple of hundred points loss, unless of course it's a guaranteed stop loss.

arrowloopboy

odd1 wrote: »

Q3.
The OP has a stop loss set 100 points or so above his entry point, so if triggered would be a 100 point winner.

However if there was a black swan event like Lehman brothers as you say and the Ftse was to open 1000 points lower (unlikely)on Monday morning for example, the OP stop loss would be triggered but filled at a price nearer the opening price.

So in theory it could be a couple of hundred points loss, unless of course it's a guaranteed stop loss.

Its not a guaranteed stop ,a major cluster fcuk event like Lehman Bros is not unlikely ,its extremely unlikely ,very unporable ,and I trade probabilities ,with winning edges ,that's why I'm a consistent winner :eek: Simples.

ixus

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Its not a guaranteed stop ,a major cluster fcuk event like Lehman Bros is not unlikely ,its extremely unlikely ,very unporable ,and I trade probabilities ,with winning edges ,that's why I'm a consistent winner :eek: Simples.

Did you really just write that on a weekend when Russia escalated tensions with the West? I'll be surprised if ftse doesn't gap down on open. How events unfold from here on in have nothing to do with the type of probabilities you discuss.

As it stands right now, your position is likely safe but events have been escalating every few hours. If someone pulls a trigger...

arrowloopboy

ixus wrote: »

Did you really just write that on a weekend when Russia escalated tensions with the West? I'll be surprised if ftse doesn't gap down on open. How events unfold from here on in have nothing to do with the type of probabilities you discuss.

As it stands right now, your position is likely safe but events have been escalating every few hours. If someone pulls a trigger...

Unfortunately ixus ,I can't factor in stuff that may or may not happen a month after I open a trade, I can only trade whats in front of me when I pull the trigger:D,i'm trading a very reliable edge (over time) ,which as you should well know ,pays off in the long run.

This will be another winner for me,i've no doubt,and I'm sure ye will be all thrilled for me when it is :rolleyes::eek:,think its an irish thing.

ixus

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Unfortunately ixus ,I can't factor in stuff that may or may not happen a month after I open a trade, I can only trade whats in front of me when I pull the trigger:D,i'm trading a very reliable edge (over time) ,which as you should well know ,pays off in the long run.

This will be another winner for me,i've no doubt,and I'm sure ye will be all thrilled for me when it is :rolleyes::eek:,think its an irish thing.

My comment has nothing to do with your entry, one I've already praised. It's with your remark (below) given events unfolding:

arrowloopboy wrote: »

a major cluster fcuk event like Lehman Bros is not unlikely ,its extremely unlikely

Doves released in the Vatican as a gesture of peace in Ukraine are immediately ATTACKED by vicious seagull and crow

arrowloopboy

How will said tensions affect gas/oil /wheat prices I wonder ?
I usually trade this set up from start of Q4 t end of Q1,which I did in October,it has a higher probability of winning in a shorter t/f,have a look see at the stats ,they may be of intrest to you .
On a more humane note,i hope theres no more bloodshed on the streets of Kiev in the coming days .

arrowloopboy

Positioned closed last night shortly after the opening at 6767.00,or +350 odd points,will resume after Russian situation is sorted out.

FTSE currently at 6727.00
DAX down over 2% at min.
Gold climbing.

odd1

Well done on your profit.

Fair play

arrowloopboy

Ftse currently at 6675.0 , my only regret is I didn't short it last night .

Thronegames

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Positioned closed last night shortly after the opening at 6767.00,or +350 odd points,will resume after Russian situation is sorted out.

FTSE currently at 6727.00
DAX down over 2% at min.
Gold climbing.

Arrow, as a learner, I am seriously impressed! BUT I just wonder if Putin's actions in Crimea equate to what odd1 refers to a s a 'Black Swan', i.e. a Lehman Bros- like event? My guess is that it's not of that magnitude. Will you re-open your position when FTSE hits what you consider to be the bottom based on current developments? I don't know what your stake was but congratulations on your profit!! Yes I am inexperienced but have learned to take profit and walk away.

arrowloopboy

Thronegames wrote: »

Arrow, as a learner, I am seriously impressed! BUT I just wonder if Putin's actions in Crimea equate to what odd1 refers to a s a 'Black Swan', i.e. a Lehman Bros- like event? My guess is that it's not of that magnitude. Will you re-open your position when FTSE hits what you consider to be the bottom based on current developments? I don't know what your stake was but congratulations on your profit!! Yes I am inexperienced but have learned to take profit and walk away.

I don't think its a ''black swan'' event,but it knocked about 2% off the FTSE today and about 3 off the DAX ,I will definatly re enter when I think the time is right,the FTSE won;'t just sail through 7000.00 ,there should be ample oppertuntiies to re enter at a lower level that I close at.
Around 6600.00 would be lovely:D or lower,have to wait see what happens in the Crimea.

arrowloopboy

To be resumed !!!

arrowloopboy

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Positioned closed last night shortly after the opening at 6767.00,or +350 odd points,will resume after Russian situation is sorted out.

FTSE currently at 6727.00
DAX down over 2% at min.
Gold climbing.

Finger getting itchy again ,

To recap, opened FTSE annual at 6410.00, target 7200.00
Closed it at start of Russian sh1t at 6767.00 (+ 350 pts )
FTSE currently at 6650.00 .
Looking to resume this trade at 6600.00 or lower ( a big discount from where I exited ).
This Russian thing has still more to go ,and Q1 is nearly over,hopefully an opportunity will arise in the next month.

Arrow

dealhunter1985

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Finger getting itchy again ,

To recap, opened FTSE annual at 6410.00, target 7200.00
Closed it at start of Russian sh1t at 6767.00 (+ 350 pts )
FTSE currently at 6650.00 .
Looking to resume this trade at 6600.00 or lower ( a big discount from where I exited ).
This Russian thing has still more to go ,and Q1 is nearly over,hopefully an opportunity will arise in the next month.

Arrow

There's your entry point now.
Are you gonna take the plunge? I wouldnt

arrowloopboy

dealhunter1985 wrote: »

There's your entry point now.
Are you gonna take the plunge? I wouldnt

or lower .

arrowloopboy

arrowloopboy wrote: »

or lower .

Trade resumed.... Just re entered this ftse annual trade at the spot price @ 6680.00 , details later .

arrowloopboy

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Trade resumed.... Just re entered this ftse annual trade at the spot price @ 6680.00 , details later .

Trade closed @ 6820.00 ( + 140 points ) markets nervous over Scotland , will resume after vote and things settle down .also shorted gbp/usd ,@ 16249.00, I think sterling has to weaken over weekend and next week prior to voteing .