LIVE TRADE

arrowloopboy · 03-02-2014 11:29PM #1

FTSE100 Annual

I am a buyer at 6219.00/6237.00 this is the Annual price ,it tracks the spot price point for point,FTSE 100 daily price at 6405.00/ 6410.00 right now.

Spread is 18 points to run the trade till Jan 2015.

Target daily price 7200.00 or their abouts,(800 points)

No stop Loss.

Arrow

odd1 · 04-02-2014 12:57AM

arrowloopboy wrote: »

FTSE100 Annual

I am a buyer at 6219.00/6237.00 this is the Annual price ,it tracks the spot price point for point,FTSE 100 daily price at 6405.00/ 6410.00 right now.

Spread is 18 points to run the trade till Jan 2015.

Target daily price 7200.00 or their abouts,(800 points)

No stop Loss.

Arrow

Why no stop loss?

Any number of events could happen.

arrowloopboy · 04-02-2014 01:25AM

odd1 wrote: »

Why no stop loss?

Any number of events could happen.

I have a mental s/l at about 5800.00,thats about 600 points away or 10% ,whipsaw won't really affect my position,i'm not too bothered about a s/l for the time being .

odd1 · 04-02-2014 03:03PM

arrowloopboy wrote: »

I have a mental s/l at about 5800.00,thats about 600 points away or 10% ,whipsaw won't really affect my position,i'm not too bothered about a s/l for the time being .

Risk/reward would be too low for me.

Good luck I hope it works out for you

arrowloopboy · 04-02-2014 04:08PM

odd1 wrote: »

Risk/reward would be too low for me.

Good luck I hope it works out for you

Cheers Odd1,

I understand where your coming from on the r/r,but 1/1 is o.k with me because I think theirs is much higher probability of the FTSE hitting 7200.00 rather than 5600.00 (or 5800.00 in my case).
Probabilities have to be taken into account when calculating R/R.

arrowloopboy · 06-02-2014 04:12PM

The entry looks to be a decent one,but this one has a long way to run,a good start is always nice,anyone else get involved ?

odd1 · 07-02-2014 11:54AM

arrowloopboy wrote: »

FTSE100 Annual

I am a buyer at 6219.00/6237.00 this is the Annual price ,it tracks the spot price point for point,FTSE 100 daily price at 6405.00/ 6410.00 right now.

Spread is 18 points to run the trade till Jan 2015.

Target daily price 7200.00 or their abouts,(800 points)

No stop Loss.

Arrow

Hi arrow

Will you defend your gains today ahead of the non farm payrolls?

arrowloopboy · 07-02-2014 07:35PM

odd1 wrote: »

Hi arrow

Will you defend your gains today ahead of the non farm payrolls?

No,didn't bodder odd1 ,the gains I've made are small ,a couple of hundred points either way won't get me nervous/excited ,this is a long term buy and hold (well as spread bets go,long term).

aidanki · 07-02-2014 11:02PM

arrowloopboy wrote: »

No,didn't bodder odd1 ,the gains I've made are small ,a couple of hundred points either way won't get me nervous/excited ,this is a long term buy and hold (well as spread bets go,long term).

What's the longest you can let a spread bet run for ? You can hold shares for an eternity but just wondering about spreadbets

arrowloopboy · 08-02-2014 02:55AM

aidanki wrote: »

What's the longest you can let a spread bet run for ? You can hold shares for an eternity but just wondering about spreadbets

Aidan,

The bets are uaually daily bets(DFBs) near 1/4,6,9mts or on some bets ,like the FTSE100 annuals ,that start on Jan 1st for 1year.
The spread you pay gets bigger the longer the contract,but not proportionally .
The daily funded FTSE100 bet ,i.e from time of bet till expiry,10pm same day ,costs 2 points,and the annual I bought ,cost 18 points,to run the bet till next January.
These spreads vary slightly from firm to firm and and can widen duyring times of high volatility ,but only slightly.
You can also roll yor bet ,that means it doesn't close,you just pay an extra spread.

So ,in a nutshell,a spreadbet can also run long term,but the cost can get prohibitive ,they come into their own on sub 1yr positions.

arrowloopboy · 11-02-2014 10:37AM

Ticking along very nicely ,currently up 230 odd points,and more to come this week I think.

arrowloopboy · 17-02-2014 01:19PM

Currently up 330 points,or 1/3 of my 1yr target for this trade after 2 weeks,s/l set at break even plus 18pts for the spread,this is now a risk free ,emotion free trade ,for now:D.

odd1 · 17-02-2014 01:36PM

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Currently up 330 points,or 1/3 of my 1yr target for this trade after 2 weeks,s/l set at break even plus 18pts for the spread,this is now a risk free ,emotion free trade ,for now:D.

Nice 1

Thronegames · 17-02-2014 08:49PM

Hi is there anyone out there who can help me with these questions: Firstly why are people still buying AIB shares -ref recent Irish Times article. Why do my trades not show up on Sharewatch site? (I use Davy online). Why have Oil stocks fallen so much in last year? Why do tiny trades appear on Sharewatch site? How can Conroy Gold be shown as +90% on day when only ONE share has been traded?

arrowloopboy · 17-02-2014 10:54PM

Thronegames wrote: »

Hi is there anyone out there who can help me with these questions: Firstly why are people still buying AIB shares -ref recent Irish Times article. Why do my trades not show up on Sharewatch site? (I use Davy online). Why have Oil stocks fallen so much in last year? Why do tiny trades appear on Sharewatch site? How can Conroy Gold be shown as +90% on day when only ONE share has been traded?

AHEM ,this thread is mine like

,dealing with a live trade,no harm done,try posting this on the main board,someone more knowledgeable that myself might be able to help.

Thargor · 18-02-2014 01:45PM

Just posting to subscribe to the thread, good going Arrowloopboy.

Thronegames · 18-02-2014 07:11PM

OK I didn't know the conversation belonged to you! And I haven't a clue about spread betting. G'luck and thanks

arrowloopboy · 18-02-2014 08:06PM

Thronegames wrote: »

OK I didn't know the conversation belonged to you! And I haven't a clue about spread betting. G'luck and thanks

Not at all T,i was just pointing out a wayword post by Thronegames looking for info on some other random stuff,
Spreadbetting is the same as regular trading,except its more suitable to sub 1yr positions ,and you can access a much larger position with the same amount of funds you'd buy a regular share with,and you pay no tax to the if you make money.

Thronegames · 18-02-2014 10:52PM

Sorry arrowloopboy for invading your space. Hope your cough gets better soon.

arrowloopboy · 19-02-2014 12:46AM

Thronegames wrote: »

Sorry arrowloopboy for invading your space. Hope your cough gets better soon.

:D:D,no bodders.

arrowloopboy · 19-02-2014 10:56AM

FTSE 100 dancing with 6800.00 or +400 pts or 6.5 % of my yearly 12% target after 2and half weeks.

ixus · 19-02-2014 11:41AM

Looks like a nice trade. I think entering the day before BOE (if I remember correctly) posed some extra risk but you stated your risk parameters.

FTSE has put in a big move relative to European's and US in the last two days. It's also ignoring fx for now. Decent Chinese data and some strong performance's from the miners have helped.

arrowloopboy · 19-02-2014 12:00PM

ixus wrote: »

Looks like a nice trade. I think entering the day before BOE (if I remember correctly) posed some extra risk but you stated your risk parameters.

FTSE has put in a big move relative to European's and US in the last two days. It's also ignoring fx for now. Decent Chinese data and some strong performance's from the miners have helped.

My entry was spectacular ,but hindsight is great.This trade could be cut short,and re entered in the Autumn,we'll see.

odd1 · 19-02-2014 01:54PM

arrowloopboy wrote: »

My entry was spectacular ,but hindsight is great.This trade could be cut short,and re entered in the Autumn,we'll see.

What do you think Will drive the ftse to 7200?

arrowloopboy · 19-02-2014 03:28PM

odd1 wrote: »

What do you think Will drive the ftse to 7200?

Odd1,the bull market is still in tact,yes,their is a cluster fcuk coming,its fair to assume that the FTSE100 will add around 12% this year if said cluster fcuk doesn't materialise this year,thats the average return of the FTSE100 in normal Bull market years,this is based on historic data since 1980.
Goldman Sachs and a couple more big firms have called it at 7400.00 by end of year,i'm been conservative ,and I got in at a much better level that I thought I would.

With the current move of +400 points or 6.5% ,I have put in a stop loss ,at 6430.00 which means there is no way I can lose money on this trade,its emotion/risk free trade for me now,my favourite type of trade ,100% right squed .

odd1 · 19-02-2014 04:20PM

On another thread you mentioned trading in the zone as a must read.... In it Douglas suggests taking 1/3 of your trade size off the table, for a risk free emotion free trade. It may serve you well in this trade.

Also if you truly believe your last post and you do as Douglas said, there should be no reason to cut your trade short.

Don't doubt yourself!!!

arrowloopboy · 19-02-2014 11:04PM

odd1 wrote: »

On another thread you mentioned trading in the zone as a must read.... In it Douglas suggests taking 1/3 of your trade size off the table, for a risk free emotion free trade. It may serve you well in this trade.

Also if you truly believe your last post and you do as Douglas said, there should be no reason to cut your trade short.

Don't doubt yourself!!!

No I'm not doubting myself odd1,i never do,i'm trading an edge with a positive expectancy ,I'm thinking of possibly bailing because of seasonality ,statistically Q1 and Q4 add about 5% each to the FTSE100 index ,with Q2 and Q3 usually a little better than flat,thats the only thing telling me I may be ahead of the game ,but i'll let it run for now.

ixus · 20-02-2014 02:12PM

Might help your trade.

Vodafone’s Verizon deal set to pump £10bn into UK equities

...British stock market following the sale of Vodafone’s stake in Verizon Wireless next month...launch an IPO. A top 20 investor in Vodafone said: “This will benefit the whole market...Wireless shares and £14.6bn in cash when Vodafone sells its 45 per cent stake in the US mobile... By Daniel Thomas and David Oakley in London

arrowloopboy · 20-02-2014 03:26PM

ixus wrote: »

Might help your trade.

Vodafone’s Verizon deal set to pump £10bn into UK equities

Thnks Ixus,you don't have a heads up or could make an educated guess on which exact equities there going to pump the said 10bn into do you

arrowloopboy · 22-02-2014 09:27AM

FTSE100 broke 6800.00 and reached around 6850.00 Friday,closed at 6807.00 for weekend,or + 400 pts or 6% of my 12% target for the year after3 weeks,s/l moved 6528 or plus 100pts of profit.

Thronegames · 23-02-2014 08:21PM

arrowloopboy wrote: »

FTSE100 broke 6800.00 and reached around 6850.00 Friday,closed at 6807.00 for weekend,or + 400 pts or 6% of my 12% target for the year after3 weeks,s/l moved 6528 or plus 100pts of profit.

Arrow, please tolerate my presence as a relative newbie. I've read the thread a few times and I'm fascinated. I want to learn a little and would appreciate your forbearance in commenting on my questions as follows:

1. My understanding is that you went long on FTSE 100, entering at about 6400 with target exit of 7200 by Jan 1 2015. Again please let me emphasise that I am looking for advice only.
2. What broker / online account have you used?
3. You have no stop-loss currently. So what happens to your position in the short term if there is some kind of Lehman Bros - like event leading to contagion or some other catastrophic event? How quickly can you exit the position?
4. I would not have enough confidence in my ability to place such a trade. What was your rationale for doing so in the first place?
5. I know it's a leveraged position and you stand to make big gains or big losses. How can you limit your losses?
6. If I wanted to open a demo account, what site would you recommend for spread betting? I am too inexperienced in the field to go live. I just want to learn.

Seriously good luck with that trade and prima facie it seems logical...but maybe a bit late?...like sentiment turned in Q2 y13? Again: I'm just trying to learn a bit and would appreciate advice.

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