Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

thomond2006 · 11-09-2014 08:39PM

Stade Francais are available at +18 for their trip to Toulon, who are missing a lot of players. They are down to 2 second rows while Giteau and Tillous-Borde could be out as well.

I'll wait for team news but I think that cap is a few points generous to Stade.

matthew8 · 12-09-2014 02:32PM

Gonna try out the 10-10000 challenge with 10 euro on Leinster and Australia to win to return 13.71. Bets to come on Glasgow and Bath probably, waiting on odds. 25 top level games this week and only 4 I like, handicapper is doing a good job.

Bath only, -23 1.91 1 unit.

thomond2006 · 12-09-2014 11:30PM

Previous balance: 47.3 units

- 2 units (10/11) Glasgow to win
- 1.5 units (10/11) Leinster try bonus point
- .5 units (12/5) Ian Madigan try in 80 mins
- .25 units (16/1) Devin Toner try in 80 minsc

- 2.5 units (10/11) Stade Francais +17
- 1.5 units (10/11) Bordeaux Begles -4
- 1 unit (10/11) Toulouse -7

New Balance: 38.05 units

matthew8 · 13-09-2014 04:53PM

matthew8 wrote: »

Gonna try out the 10-10000 challenge with 10 euro on Leinster and Australia to win to return 13.71. Bets to come on Glasgow and Bath probably, waiting on odds. 25 top level games this week and only 4 I like, handicapper is doing a good job.

Bath only, -23 1.91 1 unit.

52.84. Called them wrong this week. Overrated Quins and underrated SA's defense and Argentina's attack especially. 2 tries in the last 10 for Bath leaving me relieved if anything.

thomond2006 · 14-09-2014 06:51PM

thomond2006 wrote: »

Previous balance: 47.3 units

- 2 units (10/11) Glasgow to win
- 1.5 units (10/11) Leinster try bonus point
- .5 units (12/5) Ian Madigan try in 80 mins
- .25 units (16/1) Devin Toner try in 80 minsc

- 2.5 units (10/11) Stade Francais +17
- 1.5 units (10/11) Bordeaux Begles -4
- 1 unit (10/11) Toulouse -7

New Balance: 38.05 units

New Balance: 54.08 units

Now that's more like it, great weekend.

thomond2006 · 15-09-2014 08:52PM

Odds out for Top14:

- Brive v Toulon (-3)

- Racing (-7) vs Toulouse
- Castres (-14) vs Oyonnax
- Clermont (-15) vs Lyon
- Grenoble (-14) vs Bayonne
- La Rochelle (-6) vs Bordeaux Begles
- Montpellier (-12) vs Stade Francais

I think there's value with Racing -7 and Oyonnax +14. Both of their opponents are really struggling. If Lyon send the seconds to Clermont then the home side could easily cover the -15 cap.

matthew8 · 17-09-2014 06:06PM

Leinster to win Champions Cup pool 4/5 5 units.

sydthebeat · 17-09-2014 09:57PM

Double

Australia +8
Argentina +15

@3.3

wowy · 17-09-2014 10:30PM

sydthebeat wrote: »

Double

Australia +8
Argentina -15

@3.3

I *really* hope that's a typo!

sydthebeat · 17-09-2014 11:40PM

wowy wrote: »

I *really* hope that's a typo!

I've ever faith! !

Ah no, just edited

thomond2006 · 18-09-2014 08:12PM

Previous balance: 54.08 units

- 1.5 units (10/11) Stade Francais +12
- 1.5 units (10/11) Racing Metro -7
- 1 unit (10/11) Oyonnax +14
- .5 units (6.84/1) Connacht & Brive to win

New balance: 49.58 units

(Might add one or two tomorrow depending on teams)

matthew8 · 18-09-2014 08:37PM

1 unit Brive to win moneyline 2.57.

matthew8 · 18-09-2014 10:14PM

matthew8 wrote: »

Gonna try out the 10-10000 challenge with 10 euro on Leinster and Australia to win to return 13.71. Bets to come on Glasgow and Bath probably, waiting on odds. 25 top level games this week and only 4 I like, handicapper is doing a good job.

Bath only, -23 1.91 1 unit.

13.71 on Golden Lions to win 1.25 to return 17.14.

matthew8 · 19-09-2014 04:40PM

1 unit each on Cheetahs -6.5 1.95, Ospreys -9 1.91, Sale -19.5 1.95, Treviso +20 1.91, Glasgow -5.5 1.95, Northampton -9 1.91.

matthew8 · 20-09-2014 09:48AM

matthew8 wrote: »

13.71 on Golden Lions to win 1.25 to return 17.14.

17.14 on Sale and Clermont to win to return 20.94.

Edit: 20.94 on Ospreys to return 25.13

thomond2006 · 20-09-2014 09:40PM

thomond2006 wrote: »

Previous balance: 54.08 units

- 1.5 units (10/11) Stade Francais +12
- 1.5 units (10/11) Racing Metro -7
- 1 unit (10/11) Oyonnax +14
- .5 units (6.84/1) Connacht & Brive to win

New balance: 49.58 units

(Might add one or two tomorrow depending on teams)

New Balance: 54.35 units

Slight gain this week. That will do!

matthew8 · 21-09-2014 05:41PM

matthew8 wrote: »

17.14 on Sale and Clermont to win to return 20.94.

Edit: 20.94 on Ospreys to return 25.13

55.51 units the balance with 21 staked so far.

sydthebeat · 25-09-2014 02:29PM

i think cardiff are massively over priced at +18 for the game against leinster.

pretty much full squad being brought over.

dare i even say a 9/1 bet looks value

matthew8 · 25-09-2014 02:44PM

Cardiff are still a terrible team though who have been well beaten twice at home. Glasgow -11 1.91 1 unit.

sydthebeat · 25-09-2014 03:11PM

matthew8 wrote: »

Cardiff are still a terrible team though who have been well beaten twice at home. Glasgow -11 1.91 1 unit.

ive a double on blues and glasgow to beat spread.

i still full expect leinster to win, but if cardiff are any way up for it, they should be the spread

thomond2006 · 25-09-2014 03:41PM

sydthebeat wrote: »

i think cardiff are massively over priced at +18 for the game against leinster.

pretty much full squad being brought over.

dare i even say a 9/1 bet looks value

I wouldn't agree, Cardiff have been beaten at home in the last two weeks. Their two props are well past their prime.

matthew8 · 25-09-2014 05:01PM

Cheetahs to win 1.61, Bayonne to win (moneyline) 1.67, 1 unit each.

matthew8 · 25-09-2014 06:18PM

matthew8 wrote: »

17.14 on Sale and Clermont to win to return 20.94.

Edit: 20.94 on Ospreys to return 25.13

25.13 on Glasgow to return 29.26.

Edit: Gloucester -17.5 1.92 1 unit.

MoneyMilo · 26-09-2014 12:57PM

Yeah, Cardiff+18 is too much. If their kicker doesn't have a priestland, they will in all likelihood be within 18. Cuthbert always seems to get over the line and while Adam Jones is definitely over the hill, he'll probably still trouble Bent.

Don't see any amazing value elsewhere. Argentina on the hcap maybe - not a particularly logical one but I fancy them to go well in a buzzing La Plata - that could still end up with NZ running in a heap of tries but I have a feeling that this could be the one despite a strong NZ lineup. Toulon and Northampton on the hcaps as well maybe.

thomond2006 · 26-09-2014 01:13PM

Old Balance: 54.35 units

- 2 units (10/11) Connacht +13
- .25 units (5/1) Connacht to win
- .25 units (17/2) Kane Douglas try in 80 mins
- .5 units (13/8) Ian Madigan try in 80 mins

- 1 unit (11/8) Clermont to win
- .5 units (13/5) Racing Metro to win
- .5 units (2/1) Bordeaux to win
- .25 units (8/1) London Welsh to win

New Balance: 49.1 units

matthew8 · 26-09-2014 03:09PM

1 unit Dragons -12 2.0. 1 unit Northamption -7 1.91. 1 unit Grenoble -5.5 1.95. 1 unit Leicester -13.5 1.95.

sydthebeat · 26-09-2014 09:59PM

sydthebeat wrote: »

ive a double on blues and glasgow to beat spread.

i still full expect leinster to win, but if cardiff are any way up for it, they should be the spread

Judgement Day · 26-09-2014 10:04PM

3 dire weeks in a row by tiny margins - I'm too depressed to even bother posting predictions (or after timings) these days. Could have cleaned up on Munster last week but kept away from it as it wasn't televised.

matthew8 · 26-09-2014 11:25PM

matthew8 wrote: »

25.13 on Glasgow to return 29.26.

Edit: Gloucester -17.5 1.92 1 unit.

29.26 on Leicester to return 34.86.

matthew8 · 27-09-2014 05:14PM

The 10000 dream is over. Bloody handicap draw too for Northampton. So lucky on Friday though, at one point all 3 of the late ones looked sure to lose. 5 units Bath to win pool 6.0.

Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

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