Priced out of the market :(

gmisk · 22-07-2014 10:45am #1

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/163-comeragh-road-crumlin-dublin-12/2863535

I saw this house at the weekend.....fairy busy viewing.....already an offer of 180.

I honestly think the vast majority of houses/apartments I have seen the past 6 months are now going for over asking price.....I think I am really priced out of the market as a lone buyer at this stage unfortunately

.

I seem to be competing against couples and lots of investors.

I think I have little choice but to bide my time.....my question is.....are prices likely to level off and drop in the next few years?
What are peoples opinions?

I think the best option for me might be to save like I have been doing (have approx 25k saved) then relocate outside dublin.....

McGrath5 · 22-07-2014 10:55am

gmisk wrote: »

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/163-comeragh-road-crumlin-dublin-12/2863535

I saw this house at the weekend.....fairy busy viewing.....already an offer of 180.

I honestly think the vast majority of houses/apartments I have seen the past 6 months are now going for over asking price.....I think I am really priced out of the market as a lone buyer at this stage unfortunately .

I seem to be competing against couples and lots of investors.

I think I have little choice but to bide my time.....my question is.....are prices likely to level off and drop in the next few years?
What are peoples opinions?

I think the best option for me might be to save like I have been doing (have approx 25k saved) then relocate outside dublin.....

I think that is your best option OP.

gmisk · 22-07-2014 10:57am

Thanks for that I am thinking so.

To be honest Dublin has been home for me for 11ish years now.....but it wouldnt exactly break my heart to live somewhere else if I am being honest....

The_Conductor · 22-07-2014 11:01am

Its a bit of a 'how long is a piece of string' question.......

Are prices likely to fall or rise in the future- it depends on a long list of factors- not leastly-

1. Prevailing interest rates
2. Affordability for investors (at the moment rising rents are driving their interests- you can pay 200k for a 2 bed apartments- if you can get over a thousand a month for it- and they can.....
3. Affordability for other buyer categories- looking at income multiples here more than anything else- and we are still well below some of the silliness of the boom.
4. Supply- esp. in the greater Dublin area- supply is seriously constrained, and there has been no discussion in how to make a dint in this pent-up-demanad
5. Employment- if we get below the magical 10% unemployment level- there will be more money sloshing around, chasing limited assets.....
6. Perceptions
7. Sentiment

All-in-all, it would be a very foolish person who stood up and offered advice- there are far too many unknowns- and indeed, the manner in which these unknowns correlate with one another- is another unknown.........

I was asked earlier this year if 160k for a 2 bed in Lucan was a fair price. Looking at it objectively as an investment- I said, it couldn't be justified- as the rental income was just too low. The rent on that unit is now 1,200 a month- and its recently sold for 196k. I think both the rent- and the price of the unit are nuts. Obviously others disagree with me- and have been willing to put their money where their mouths are.......

I think the Irish property market has broken fundamentally- but I don't see how it will ever repair itself.

red dave · 22-07-2014 11:10am

€180k is still cheap for that house IMO. I think some places in Dublin less than 200k is a good price.

Contradiction edit: I agree with the conductor there even though my post would suggest otherwise. Based my post on house location is good for renting out and accessing city centre. The back garden looked good and possible room for extension or outside office/garage space.

Either way it's all just a form of gambling.

gmisk · 22-07-2014 11:15am

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its a bit of a 'how long is a piece of string' question.......

Are prices likely to fall or rise in the future- it depends on a long list of factors- not leastly-

1. Prevailing interest rates
2. Affordability for investors (at the moment rising rents are driving their interests- you can pay 200k for a 2 bed apartments- if you can get over a thousand a month for it- and they can.....
3. Affordability for other buyer categories- looking at income multiples here more than anything else- and we are still well below some of the silliness of the boom.
4. Supply- esp. in the greater Dublin area- supply is seriously constrained, and there has been no discussion in how to make a dint in this pent-up-demanad
5. Employment- if we get below the magical 10% unemployment level- there will be more money sloshing around, chasing limited assets.....
6. Perceptions
7. Sentiment

All-in-all, it would be a very foolish person who stood up and offered advice- there are far too many unknowns- and indeed, the manner in which these unknowns correlate with one another- is another unknown.........

I was asked earlier this year if 160k for a 2 bed in Lucan was a fair price. Looking at it objectively as an investment- I said, it couldn't be justified- as the rental income was just too low. The rent on that unit is now 1,200 a month- and its recently sold for 196k. I think both the rent- and the price of the unit are nuts. Obviously others disagree with me- and have been willing to put their money where their mouths are.......

I think the Irish property market has broken fundamentally- but I don't see how it will ever repair itself.

I would have thought the fact the banks are being stricter with regards what they are willing to lend would have an effect also?

I suppose I am lucky enough with regards being happy where I rent and it is reasonable, I am geared up to buy tbh.

I was sale agreed on a house for nearly a year, which collapsed due to negative equity on vendors side.

I think relocating is the way to go for me.

Larbre34 · 22-07-2014 11:56am

43% of purchases so far this year in Dublin have been cash or buy-to-let. Thats not a a market, its an artificial reality.

There is a limit to such speculative input, so they best thing private buyers could do this year, is not purchase. I expect it to be another 2 years before the market reaches some sort of reality in terms of purchaser profile, turnover rate and price levels. This will include another downward correction in mini-bubble areas like Dublin.

Zamboni · 22-07-2014 12:19pm

There are too many variables that could affect the price up or down.
I just wanted to empathise with you.

If you are going to relocate out of Dublin, maybe consider the airport as opposed to the motorway

gmisk · 22-07-2014 12:26pm

Zamboni wrote: »

There are too many variables that could affect the price up or down.
I just wanted to empathise with you.

If you are going to relocate out of Dublin, maybe consider the airport as opposed to the motorway

Thanks for that much appreciated.
I realize I am lucky enough, owning a house is not the be all and end all to happiness.

I would probably move back to Belfast...so motorway or airport both work

tenifan · 22-07-2014 12:28pm

gmisk wrote: »

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/163-comeragh-road-crumlin-dublin-12/2863535

I saw this house at the weekend.....fairy busy viewing.....already an offer of 180.

I honestly think the vast majority of houses/apartments I have seen the past 6 months are now going for over asking price.....I think I am really priced out of the market as a lone buyer at this stage unfortunately .

I seem to be competing against couples and lots of investors.

I think I have little choice but to bide my time.....my question is.....are prices likely to level off and drop in the next few years?
What are peoples opinions?

I think the best option for me might be to save like I have been doing (have approx 25k saved) then relocate outside dublin.....

I prefer living in Dundalk (where I'm from), however I work in Co Dublin and there is no decent public transport (40min drive in each direction, vs a 2 hour commute by bus & foot in each direction).

The commute costs an absolute fortune! Definitely something to factor in when buying a house

draiochtanois · 22-07-2014 12:32pm

This post has been deleted.

Shedite27 · 22-07-2014 1:20pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

43% of purchases so far this year in Dublin have been cash or buy-to-let. Thats not a a market, its an artificial reality.

Is that from an article?

(I hate being the dick asking for supplementary reading, but after reading so many posters speak about "most purchases are cash", you're 43% figure seems like there might be actualy science behind it)

handlemaster · 22-07-2014 1:29pm

I think its more a worry for the Irish and English not owning your own home. The prices I have noticed in Dublin 15 have gone up a good bit in the last few months (thats asking prices anyhow). If you can't afford the house/apartment just don't worry about it. Renting costs will remain high only until the new properties come on stream in the next few years.

iguana · 22-07-2014 1:40pm

McGrath5 wrote: »

I think that is your best option OP.

I agree too. I always figured I'd ultimately settle in Dublin but for family reasons I left Dublin early last year for what I thought would be a temporary move and I've decided to stay put. While house prices aren't the only reason I've decided not to go back to Dublin I'm so glad to be out of the insanity that is the Dublin market. It will mean having a lower income but the cost of living is so much lower that we'll a much bigger house and garden and more disposable income each month. There are obvious benefits to living in Dublin but unless you are giving up being close to immediate family who you really want to live near, it really is worth sitting down and working out if you really are better off there.

gmisk · 22-07-2014 1:52pm

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Is it not really difficult to get a mortgage for a house in northern ireland, if I live and work in Dublin?

Its definitely something I could consider...I think I will keep saving tbh, then look at the market a year or two down the line, the whole looking at houses and being outbid constantly is very disheartening.

22-07-2014 7:11pm

My own view OP is that in the price range you are looking at the market is currently being distorted by the capital gains tax exemption expiring at year end coupled with investor confidence due to rental returns comparing very favourably with purchase prices.

I think biding your time is a good idea until 2015 at least.

murphaph · 22-07-2014 7:42pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

There is a limit to such speculative input

To all intents and purposes there isn't as long as the investors are foreign.

on_my_oe · 22-07-2014 9:04pm

What areas are you interested in? What items are essential/ non-negotiable and what are 'nice to have'?

We started with our wish list, and have made compromises to fit our budget, which had to be revised as the market grew. We would have made less compromises if the OH hadn't spent so long umm-ing and ahhh-ing. Ultimately it came down to three bedrooms with a box room capable of a double bed, locker and wardrobe; two bathrooms; gas heating; somewhere to have a BBQ; space for a dining room table; BER D or higher; and allocated parking.
Along the journey our budget went up 25%, the attic man cave went out the window, and we have accepted a management fee. We got stuck in a negative equity nightmare which is still ongoing but we are hopefully extracting ourselves this week if our higher mortgage gets approved (if we do get declined, I give up altogether - we'll immigrate).

quadrifoglio verde · 23-07-2014 12:12am

gmisk wrote: »

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/163-comeragh-road-crumlin-dublin-12/2863535

I saw this house at the weekend.....fairy busy viewing.....already an offer of 180.

I honestly think the vast majority of houses/apartments I have seen the past 6 months are now going for over asking price.....I think I am really priced out of the market as a lone buyer at this stage unfortunately .

I seem to be competing against couples and lots of investors.

I think I have little choice but to bide my time.....my question is.....are prices likely to level off and drop in the next few years?
What are peoples opinions?

I think the best option for me might be to save like I have been doing (have approx 25k saved) then relocate outside dublin.....

If you can't afford to go over 180k then don't. That got plenty of people in trouble before, stretching themselves for their dream home, only to realise the dream was living from paycheque to paycheque.
Its hard to know what way prices will go, but to be honest if I'm buying a home, I'm planning to live their for the forceable future. It'd want to be somewhere I'm happy living in for the next 20 years plus, I don't care what the price is, so long as I can afford it and its where I want to live.

TheDriver · 23-07-2014 12:43am

on_my_oe wrote: »

What areas are you interested in? What items are essential/ non-negotiable and what are 'nice to have'?

We started with our wish list, and have made compromises to fit our budget, which had to be revised as the market grew. We would have made less compromises if the OH hadn't spent so long umm-ing and ahhh-ing. Ultimately it came down to three bedrooms with a box room capable of a double bed, locker and wardrobe; two bathrooms; gas heating; somewhere to have a BBQ; space for a dining room table; BER D or higher; and allocated parking.
Along the journey our budget went up 25%, the attic man cave went out the window, and we have accepted a management fee. We got stuck in a negative equity nightmare which is still ongoing but we are hopefully extracting ourselves this week if our higher mortgage gets approved (if we do get declined, I give up altogether - we'll immigrate).

neg equity nightmares are indeed that, always promised the letter will come this week. Run a mile

Slunk · 23-07-2014 7:46am

I know how you feel buy have heard of two houses recently that have sold a fair bit below asking. Also I know of people who wanted a quick sale and had the price the wanted in mind but EA insisted on putting it up for a lot more. A lot are chancing their arm to create panick. Just hang in there and you will find something. I couldn't imagine living too far from Dublin after renting in the CC for the last whil.

Grandpa Hassan · 23-07-2014 7:57am

red dave wrote: »

Either way it's all just a form of gambling.

Only if you are an investor wanting to get capital appreciation, then sell. Not if you are buying a home for your family, in which case it is far less relevant whether it is slightly overpriced (as long as it is affordable, of course)

Villa05 · 23-07-2014 8:24am

Grandpa Hassan wrote: »

Only if you are an investor wanting to get capital appreciation, then sell. Not if you are buying a home for your family, in which case it is far less relevant whether it is slightly overpriced (as long as it is affordable, of course)

I would disagree family or no family it is a big gamble. % rate are at record lows. Affordable now does not mean ut will be affordable in 2, 5, 10 years time. it is a massive gamble to buy now with no fixed rate for the duration of the mortgage

MouseTail · 23-07-2014 8:29am

I think single buyers have always been priced out of the market. Simple fact is they are competing for starter homes with people with mortgage approval based on 2 incomes. Unless the buyer has very substantial savings, parental help, or a very high income, it is, and always was difficult for them to compete in the housing market.

lima · 23-07-2014 10:11am

Just hang in there, there is no happiness in buying a home, despite what the Irish would have you think.

Rent money from a bank, or rent from a landlord, whatever works for you.

draiochtanois · 23-07-2014 10:25am

This post has been deleted.

Eldarion · 23-07-2014 12:37pm

MouseTail wrote: »

I think single buyers have always been priced out of the market. Simple fact is they are competing for starter homes with people with mortgage approval based on 2 incomes. Unless the buyer has very substantial savings, parental help, or a very high income, it is, and always was difficult for them to compete in the housing market.

Agreed. OP needs to realise the deck is stacked against him as he's competing with dual incomes or people with heavy capital backing.

On the flip side if he does get his foot in the door he reaps 100% of any equity gains(if applicable).

handlemaster · 24-07-2014 12:26pm

lima wrote: »

Just hang in there, there is no happiness in buying a home, despite what the Irish would have you think.

Rent money from a bank, or rent from a landlord, whatever works for you.

all matter of opinion. I know lots of people that are happy living in their own homes.

lima · 24-07-2014 1:23pm

handlemaster wrote: »

all matter of opinion. I know lots of people that are happy living in their own homes.

If owning a home is ones happiness goal then it is a very peculiar goal

While it may contribute to ones quality of life it has broken many others.

Having a roof over your head, whether it's owned by you or a landlord, allows you to pursue happiness in other ways.

For me, sitting in a room saying 'I own this' wouldn't really make me happy

handlemaster · 24-07-2014 1:32pm

lima wrote: »

If owning a home is ones happiness goal then it is a very peculiar goal

While it may contribute to ones quality of life it has broken many others.

Having a roof over your head, whether it's owned by you or a landlord, allows you to pursue happiness in other ways.

For me, sitting in a room saying 'I own this' wouldn't really make me happy

Having ones own home offers security as long as you don't over stretch when you buy.

Shedite27 · 24-07-2014 1:34pm

lima wrote: »

If owning a home is ones happiness goal then it is a very peculiar goal

While it may contribute to ones quality of life it has broken many others.

Having a roof over your head, whether it's owned by you or a landlord, allows you to pursue happiness in other ways.

For me, sitting in a room saying 'I own this' wouldn't really make me happy

No, but being able to redecorate, do a bit of landscaping,without the treat of being evicted in a month or two could.

Also, not having to pay rent when I'm retired would make me happier than paying rent.

GavMan · 24-07-2014 1:54pm

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/order-for-eviction-of-couple-can-be-sent-to-sheriff-judge-says-1.1875739

As good a reason as any to own your own home by the time you're retiring

Eldarion · 24-07-2014 1:59pm

GavMan wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/order-for-eviction-of-couple-can-be-sent-to-sheriff-judge-says-1.1875739

As good a reason as any to own your own home by the time you're retiring

Article wrote:

He also stated that he always attempted to pay the rent of €800 a month, but the rent cheques kept being returned.

So you can live rent free like this couple?

GavMan · 24-07-2014 2:00pm

Eldarion wrote: »

So you can live rent free like this couple?

If thats all you took from that link, you've a strange view of the world...

lima · 24-07-2014 2:49pm

Shedite27 wrote: »

No, but being able to redecorate, do a bit of landscaping,without the treat of being evicted in a month or two could.

Also, not having to pay rent when I'm retired would make me happier than paying rent.

I think not having to do decorating or landscaping would be better!

True about having a house when you retire, but with renting you can keep savings as well, perhaps you could even purchase a property when you retire with these savings

MouseTail · 24-07-2014 4:08pm

lima wrote: »

True about having a house when you retire, but with renting you can keep savings as well, perhaps you could even purchase a property when you retire with these savings

But you have much more spare income with a mortgage in order to be able to save.

Take an example of someone who bought 17 years ago, in the new suburbs of Dublin 18. Houses sold at about £65k / €82.5k (I remember the conversations - thats mad money for a house, who will pay that etc).

That person is paying around €350 a month mortgage, which at the start of the mortgage ate a large part of their income, much less so now, and due to inflation it will continue to decrease. Their neighbour, who has always rented is now paying €1,600 rent. Family A has over 1k a month more than family B to invest/save and the gap will widen.

And that is leaving aside the fact that family A will have a paid for asset in 10 years or so.

Dredd_J · 24-07-2014 4:39pm

lima wrote: »

If owning a home is ones happiness goal then it is a very peculiar goal

While it may contribute to ones quality of life it has broken many others.

Having a roof over your head, whether it's owned by you or a landlord, allows you to pursue happiness in other ways.

For me, sitting in a room saying 'I own this' wouldn't really make me happy

I know what you mean.
I know far more people who have let the whole owning/not owning argument consume them to the point that they are driven mad and its really effecting their lives. I have friends who just cant get beyond the whole not owning for the rest of your life isnt as bad as it sounds (as long as you prepare for your retirement and put the rent away for that). One minute they are desperate to buy and are moaning to all around them about how its disgraceful that houses arent more affordable for them. then the next minute they are giving arguments for renting instead of buying.
They dont know whether they are coming or going and i can see that they are letting it eat them up.

i personally think people would be better off just not giving a sh1te whether renting or buying is the best way to go. Just go with what you can afford and forget about it after that.

lima · 24-07-2014 9:29pm

MouseTail wrote: »

But you have much more spare income with a mortgage in order to be able to save.

Take an example of someone who bought 17 years ago, in the new suburbs of Dublin 18. Houses sold at about £65k / €82.5k (I remember the conversations - thats mad money for a house, who will pay that etc).

That person is paying around €350 a month mortgage, which at the start of the mortgage ate a large part of their income, much less so now, and due to inflation it will continue to decrease. Their neighbour, who has always rented is now paying €1,600 rent. Family A has over 1k a month more than family B to invest/save and the gap will widen.

And that is leaving aside the fact that family A will have a paid for asset in 10 years or so.

In fairness houses aren't going to go up 5 times the price over the next 17 years, they have gone down by half in the last 6 years!

Plus rent wasn't e1600 17 years ago

I get what you're saying but choosing to rent isn't at all that much 'dead money'
as Irish society would have you believe. I've been paying an average of e600 a month for years now so have loads of spare cash

Anyway I'm going to stop looking now for the foreseeable future and remain renting. I can still afford to buy but after two years of looking there is truly nothing worth it in Dublin.

No Pants · 24-07-2014 9:51pm

GavMan wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/order-for-eviction-of-couple-can-be-sent-to-sheriff-judge-says-1.1875739

As good a reason as any to own your own home by the time you're retiring

Those two should be housed by the state...in Mountjoy. They can afford their own accommodation, just not in Dublin 15. They're costing everyone money and wasting court time.

gaius c · 24-07-2014 10:35pm

No Pants wrote: »

Those two should be housed by the state...in Mountjoy. They can afford their own accommodation, just not in Dublin 15. They're costing everyone money and wasting court time.

Did you read the bit about them being evicted because their landlord is in arrears, not them?

The_Conductor · 25-07-2014 5:31am

gaius c wrote: »

Did you read the bit about them being evicted because their landlord is in arrears, not them?

They were offering to pay half the going rent- but this was determined to be unsatisfactory- and their cheques were returned uncashed.

They were not offering to pay the going rent for the area- they want to live somewhere they clearly can't afford to- and they have built up significant arrears in rent, which they have not made any proposals as to how they might intend to cover (aka they didn't save the rent in a separate bank account when it wasn't collected..........)

While its hard not to have sympathy with them on one level- on another level- they signifiy much which is wrong with the rental system in Ireland.

Their debt (and it is a debt) has now been handed over to the county sheriff, who has been ordered by the court to evict them.

No Pants · 25-07-2014 6:28am

gaius c wrote: »

Did you read the bit about them being evicted because their landlord is in arrears, not them?

It's the landlord's house and he's trying to deal with his situation. They're not. They have been ordered to leave, they're in contempt of court and they're currently spending nothing. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news folks, but you can't afford to live in Castleknock. Time to move on. Sad to see two grown adults behave like children and I don't believe that they've tried very hard to find themselves somewhere to live.

gaius c · 25-07-2014 7:14am

Interesting the difference in attitude when it's tenants outstanding their welcome versus folk who haven't paid their mortgage in years. Not just you, quite a few are posting similar sentiments but if something similar was said about mortgage holders, there would be a slew of "you heartless monster" posts.

25-07-2014 7:18am

Why is it such an all or noting situation, do what a lot of German do which is buy somewhere you might retire too, but rent in a city or where you work. I can see why if you are single you couldn't buy in somewhere like Gorey or Laytown , but rent Dublin or any where prices are reasonable.

I don't think you could expect to cover the mortgage with the rent you couldn't approach it like that, until you retired that gives you the best of both worlds security when you retire and flexibility to live where you want now. Also don't buy until you are 35/40 if you are single that gives you plenty of time to save and get you self in a good position.

gaius c · 25-07-2014 7:20am

The_Conductor wrote: »

They were offering to pay half the going rent- but this was determined to be unsatisfactory- and their cheques were returned uncashed.

Thats not referenced anywhere in that article.

The_Conductor · 25-07-2014 7:22am

gaius c wrote: »

Thats not referenced anywhere in that article.

It was part of the discussion in the court notes- and one of the grounds on which the judge held them in contempt.

Shedite27 · 25-07-2014 7:51am

mariaalice wrote: »

Why is it such an all or noting situation, do what a lot of German do which is buy somewhere you might retire too, but rent in a city or where you work. I can see why if you are single you couldn't buy in somewhere like Gorey or Laytown , but rent Dublin or any where prices are reasonable.

Because I want to live where my children/grandchildren/friends live when I'm retired

25-07-2014 8:06am

Shedite27 wrote: »

Because I want to live where my children/grandchildren/friends live when I'm retired

That's a good point, it maybe a very Irish thing though look at the uk retiring to the countryside or the sea side is very popular thus things are more set up and availed of by retired people. If you are still renting when you retire look in to the Sue Ryeder foundation is a good idea, although I know the one in Dalkey has a long waiting list, you get the best of both worlds privacy and company. I think we are going to have to accecpt the model of the way we provide a home for ourselves in Ireland is going to have to change.

MouseTail · 25-07-2014 8:26am

mariaalice wrote: »

That's a good point, it maybe a very Irish thing though look at the uk retiring to the countryside or the sea side is very popular thus things are more set up and availed of by retired people. If you are still renting when you retire look in to the Sue Ryeder foundation is a good idea, although I know the one in Dalkey has a long waiting list, you get the best of both worlds privacy and company. I think we are going to have to accecpt the model of the way we provide a home for ourselves in Ireland is going to have to change.

Have you ever been to those English seaside towns, like Eastbourne? I find them very depressing, almost like old people have been ghettoised. A dystopian town where young people and children have vanished. i know thats not the case, and they retire there by choice, but I certainly prefer a society of intergenerational living, and believe that is the model we should strive for.

25-07-2014 8:33am

MouseTail wrote: »

Have you ever been to those English seaside towns, like Eastbourne? I find them very depressing, almost like old people have been ghettoised. A dystopian town where young people and children have vanished. i know thats not the case, and they retire there by choice, but I certainly prefer a society of intergenerational living, and believe that is the model we should strive for.

I have been to Lythem st Anns which is a bit like that, of course we should have intergraded living, but the I was born in Crumlin and want to die in Crumlin mantra we have in Ireland is not working anymore so new ways of doing it will have to be found, maybe it means you can stay in Crumlin, but if you are single you will have a one bed apartment not a whole house.

gaius c · 25-07-2014 8:34am

The_Conductor wrote: »

It was part of the discussion in the court notes- and one of the grounds on which the judge held them in contempt.

Sorry but you've lost me now. I don't see any discussion on them past the posting of the link on the last page.

Priced out of the market :(

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