Priced out of the market :(

gmisk

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/163-comeragh-road-crumlin-dublin-12/2863535

I saw this house at the weekend.....fairy busy viewing.....already an offer of 180.

I honestly think the vast majority of houses/apartments I have seen the past 6 months are now going for over asking price.....I think I am really priced out of the market as a lone buyer at this stage unfortunately .

I seem to be competing against couples and lots of investors.

I think I have little choice but to bide my time.....my question is.....are prices likely to level off and drop in the next few years?
What are peoples opinions?

I think the best option for me might be to save like I have been doing (have approx 25k saved) then relocate outside dublin.....

McGrath5

gmisk wrote: »

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/163-comeragh-road-crumlin-dublin-12/2863535

I saw this house at the weekend.....fairy busy viewing.....already an offer of 180.

I honestly think the vast majority of houses/apartments I have seen the past 6 months are now going for over asking price.....I think I am really priced out of the market as a lone buyer at this stage unfortunately .

I seem to be competing against couples and lots of investors.

I think I have little choice but to bide my time.....my question is.....are prices likely to level off and drop in the next few years?
What are peoples opinions?

I think the best option for me might be to save like I have been doing (have approx 25k saved) then relocate outside dublin.....

I think that is your best option OP.

gmisk

Thanks for that I am thinking so.

To be honest Dublin has been home for me for 11ish years now.....but it wouldnt exactly break my heart to live somewhere else if I am being honest....

The_Conductor

Its a bit of a 'how long is a piece of string' question.......

Are prices likely to fall or rise in the future- it depends on a long list of factors- not leastly-

1. Prevailing interest rates
2. Affordability for investors (at the moment rising rents are driving their interests- you can pay 200k for a 2 bed apartments- if you can get over a thousand a month for it- and they can.....
3. Affordability for other buyer categories- looking at income multiples here more than anything else- and we are still well below some of the silliness of the boom.
4. Supply- esp. in the greater Dublin area- supply is seriously constrained, and there has been no discussion in how to make a dint in this pent-up-demanad
5. Employment- if we get below the magical 10% unemployment level- there will be more money sloshing around, chasing limited assets.....
6. Perceptions
7. Sentiment

All-in-all, it would be a very foolish person who stood up and offered advice- there are far too many unknowns- and indeed, the manner in which these unknowns correlate with one another- is another unknown.........

I was asked earlier this year if 160k for a 2 bed in Lucan was a fair price. Looking at it objectively as an investment- I said, it couldn't be justified- as the rental income was just too low. The rent on that unit is now 1,200 a month- and its recently sold for 196k. I think both the rent- and the price of the unit are nuts. Obviously others disagree with me- and have been willing to put their money where their mouths are.......

I think the Irish property market has broken fundamentally- but I don't see how it will ever repair itself.

red dave

€180k is still cheap for that house IMO. I think some places in Dublin less than 200k is a good price.


Contradiction edit: I agree with the conductor there even though my post would suggest otherwise. Based my post on house location is good for renting out and accessing city centre. The back garden looked good and possible room for extension or outside office/garage space.

Either way it's all just a form of gambling.

gmisk

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its a bit of a 'how long is a piece of string' question.......

Are prices likely to fall or rise in the future- it depends on a long list of factors- not leastly-

1. Prevailing interest rates
2. Affordability for investors (at the moment rising rents are driving their interests- you can pay 200k for a 2 bed apartments- if you can get over a thousand a month for it- and they can.....
3. Affordability for other buyer categories- looking at income multiples here more than anything else- and we are still well below some of the silliness of the boom.
4. Supply- esp. in the greater Dublin area- supply is seriously constrained, and there has been no discussion in how to make a dint in this pent-up-demanad
5. Employment- if we get below the magical 10% unemployment level- there will be more money sloshing around, chasing limited assets.....
6. Perceptions
7. Sentiment

All-in-all, it would be a very foolish person who stood up and offered advice- there are far too many unknowns- and indeed, the manner in which these unknowns correlate with one another- is another unknown.........

I was asked earlier this year if 160k for a 2 bed in Lucan was a fair price. Looking at it objectively as an investment- I said, it couldn't be justified- as the rental income was just too low. The rent on that unit is now 1,200 a month- and its recently sold for 196k. I think both the rent- and the price of the unit are nuts. Obviously others disagree with me- and have been willing to put their money where their mouths are.......

I think the Irish property market has broken fundamentally- but I don't see how it will ever repair itself.

I would have thought the fact the banks are being stricter with regards what they are willing to lend would have an effect also?

I suppose I am lucky enough with regards being happy where I rent and it is reasonable, I am geared up to buy tbh.

I was sale agreed on a house for nearly a year, which collapsed due to negative equity on vendors side.

I think relocating is the way to go for me.

Larbre34

43% of purchases so far this year in Dublin have been cash or buy-to-let. Thats not a a market, its an artificial reality.

There is a limit to such speculative input, so they best thing private buyers could do this year, is not purchase. I expect it to be another 2 years before the market reaches some sort of reality in terms of purchaser profile, turnover rate and price levels. This will include another downward correction in mini-bubble areas like Dublin.

Zamboni

There are too many variables that could affect the price up or down.
I just wanted to empathise with you.

If you are going to relocate out of Dublin, maybe consider the airport as opposed to the motorway

gmisk

Zamboni wrote: »

There are too many variables that could affect the price up or down.
I just wanted to empathise with you.

If you are going to relocate out of Dublin, maybe consider the airport as opposed to the motorway

Thanks for that much appreciated.
I realize I am lucky enough, owning a house is not the be all and end all to happiness.

I would probably move back to Belfast...so motorway or airport both work

tenifan

gmisk wrote: »

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/163-comeragh-road-crumlin-dublin-12/2863535

I saw this house at the weekend.....fairy busy viewing.....already an offer of 180.

I honestly think the vast majority of houses/apartments I have seen the past 6 months are now going for over asking price.....I think I am really priced out of the market as a lone buyer at this stage unfortunately .

I seem to be competing against couples and lots of investors.

I think I have little choice but to bide my time.....my question is.....are prices likely to level off and drop in the next few years?
What are peoples opinions?

I think the best option for me might be to save like I have been doing (have approx 25k saved) then relocate outside dublin.....

I prefer living in Dundalk (where I'm from), however I work in Co Dublin and there is no decent public transport (40min drive in each direction, vs a 2 hour commute by bus & foot in each direction).

The commute costs an absolute fortune! Definitely something to factor in when buying a house

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Shedite27

Larbre34 wrote: »

43% of purchases so far this year in Dublin have been cash or buy-to-let. Thats not a a market, its an artificial reality.

Is that from an article?

(I hate being the dick asking for supplementary reading, but after reading so many posters speak about "most purchases are cash", you're 43% figure seems like there might be actualy science behind it)

handlemaster

I think its more a worry for the Irish and English not owning your own home. The prices I have noticed in Dublin 15 have gone up a good bit in the last few months (thats asking prices anyhow). If you can't afford the house/apartment just don't worry about it. Renting costs will remain high only until the new properties come on stream in the next few years.

iguana

McGrath5 wrote: »

I think that is your best option OP.

I agree too. I always figured I'd ultimately settle in Dublin but for family reasons I left Dublin early last year for what I thought would be a temporary move and I've decided to stay put. While house prices aren't the only reason I've decided not to go back to Dublin I'm so glad to be out of the insanity that is the Dublin market. It will mean having a lower income but the cost of living is so much lower that we'll a much bigger house and garden and more disposable income each month. There are obvious benefits to living in Dublin but unless you are giving up being close to immediate family who you really want to live near, it really is worth sitting down and working out if you really are better off there.

gmisk

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Is it not really difficult to get a mortgage for a house in northern ireland, if I live and work in Dublin?

Its definitely something I could consider...I think I will keep saving tbh, then look at the market a year or two down the line, the whole looking at houses and being outbid constantly is very disheartening.

My own view OP is that in the price range you are looking at the market is currently being distorted by the capital gains tax exemption expiring at year end coupled with investor confidence due to rental returns comparing very favourably with purchase prices.

I think biding your time is a good idea until 2015 at least.

murphaph

Larbre34 wrote: »

There is a limit to such speculative input

To all intents and purposes there isn't as long as the investors are foreign.

on_my_oe

What areas are you interested in? What items are essential/ non-negotiable and what are 'nice to have'?

We started with our wish list, and have made compromises to fit our budget, which had to be revised as the market grew. We would have made less compromises if the OH hadn't spent so long umm-ing and ahhh-ing. Ultimately it came down to three bedrooms with a box room capable of a double bed, locker and wardrobe; two bathrooms; gas heating; somewhere to have a BBQ; space for a dining room table; BER D or higher; and allocated parking.
Along the journey our budget went up 25%, the attic man cave went out the window, and we have accepted a management fee. We got stuck in a negative equity nightmare which is still ongoing but we are hopefully extracting ourselves this week if our higher mortgage gets approved (if we do get declined, I give up altogether - we'll immigrate).

quadrifoglio verde

gmisk wrote: »

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/163-comeragh-road-crumlin-dublin-12/2863535

I saw this house at the weekend.....fairy busy viewing.....already an offer of 180.

I honestly think the vast majority of houses/apartments I have seen the past 6 months are now going for over asking price.....I think I am really priced out of the market as a lone buyer at this stage unfortunately .

I seem to be competing against couples and lots of investors.

I think I have little choice but to bide my time.....my question is.....are prices likely to level off and drop in the next few years?
What are peoples opinions?

I think the best option for me might be to save like I have been doing (have approx 25k saved) then relocate outside dublin.....

If you can't afford to go over 180k then don't. That got plenty of people in trouble before, stretching themselves for their dream home, only to realise the dream was living from paycheque to paycheque.
Its hard to know what way prices will go, but to be honest if I'm buying a home, I'm planning to live their for the forceable future. It'd want to be somewhere I'm happy living in for the next 20 years plus, I don't care what the price is, so long as I can afford it and its where I want to live.

TheDriver

on_my_oe wrote: »

What areas are you interested in? What items are essential/ non-negotiable and what are 'nice to have'?

We started with our wish list, and have made compromises to fit our budget, which had to be revised as the market grew. We would have made less compromises if the OH hadn't spent so long umm-ing and ahhh-ing. Ultimately it came down to three bedrooms with a box room capable of a double bed, locker and wardrobe; two bathrooms; gas heating; somewhere to have a BBQ; space for a dining room table; BER D or higher; and allocated parking.
Along the journey our budget went up 25%, the attic man cave went out the window, and we have accepted a management fee. We got stuck in a negative equity nightmare which is still ongoing but we are hopefully extracting ourselves this week if our higher mortgage gets approved (if we do get declined, I give up altogether - we'll immigrate).

neg equity nightmares are indeed that, always promised the letter will come this week. Run a mile

Slunk

I know how you feel buy have heard of two houses recently that have sold a fair bit below asking. Also I know of people who wanted a quick sale and had the price the wanted in mind but EA insisted on putting it up for a lot more. A lot are chancing their arm to create panick. Just hang in there and you will find something. I couldn't imagine living too far from Dublin after renting in the CC for the last whil.

Grandpa Hassan

red dave wrote: »

Either way it's all just a form of gambling.

Only if you are an investor wanting to get capital appreciation, then sell. Not if you are buying a home for your family, in which case it is far less relevant whether it is slightly overpriced (as long as it is affordable, of course)

Villa05

Grandpa Hassan wrote: »

Only if you are an investor wanting to get capital appreciation, then sell. Not if you are buying a home for your family, in which case it is far less relevant whether it is slightly overpriced (as long as it is affordable, of course)

I would disagree family or no family it is a big gamble. % rate are at record lows. Affordable now does not mean ut will be affordable in 2, 5, 10 years time. it is a massive gamble to buy now with no fixed rate for the duration of the mortgage

MouseTail

I think single buyers have always been priced out of the market. Simple fact is they are competing for starter homes with people with mortgage approval based on 2 incomes. Unless the buyer has very substantial savings, parental help, or a very high income, it is, and always was difficult for them to compete in the housing market.

lima

Just hang in there, there is no happiness in buying a home, despite what the Irish would have you think.

Rent money from a bank, or rent from a landlord, whatever works for you.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Eldarion

MouseTail wrote: »

I think single buyers have always been priced out of the market. Simple fact is they are competing for starter homes with people with mortgage approval based on 2 incomes. Unless the buyer has very substantial savings, parental help, or a very high income, it is, and always was difficult for them to compete in the housing market.

Agreed. OP needs to realise the deck is stacked against him as he's competing with dual incomes or people with heavy capital backing.

On the flip side if he does get his foot in the door he reaps 100% of any equity gains(if applicable).

handlemaster

lima wrote: »

Just hang in there, there is no happiness in buying a home, despite what the Irish would have you think.

Rent money from a bank, or rent from a landlord, whatever works for you.

all matter of opinion. I know lots of people that are happy living in their own homes.

lima

handlemaster wrote: »

all matter of opinion. I know lots of people that are happy living in their own homes.

If owning a home is ones happiness goal then it is a very peculiar goal

While it may contribute to ones quality of life it has broken many others.

Having a roof over your head, whether it's owned by you or a landlord, allows you to pursue happiness in other ways.

For me, sitting in a room saying 'I own this' wouldn't really make me happy

handlemaster

lima wrote: »

If owning a home is ones happiness goal then it is a very peculiar goal

While it may contribute to ones quality of life it has broken many others.

Having a roof over your head, whether it's owned by you or a landlord, allows you to pursue happiness in other ways.

For me, sitting in a room saying 'I own this' wouldn't really make me happy

Having ones own home offers security as long as you don't over stretch when you buy.

Shedite27

lima wrote: »

If owning a home is ones happiness goal then it is a very peculiar goal

While it may contribute to ones quality of life it has broken many others.

Having a roof over your head, whether it's owned by you or a landlord, allows you to pursue happiness in other ways.

For me, sitting in a room saying 'I own this' wouldn't really make me happy

No, but being able to redecorate, do a bit of landscaping,without the treat of being evicted in a month or two could.

Also, not having to pay rent when I'm retired would make me happier than paying rent.