The Pro Austerity Crowd

SafeSurfer · 20-05-2014 08:01PM

I think Friday's elections will show clearly that the old civil war politics of FG/FF are being left behind. The demarcation line now is one that we see in most western democracies, that of left wing and right wing ideologies.

Sinn Fein is emerging as the dominant party of the left while Fine Gael is strengthening its role as the party of law and order and fiscal rectitude, while Fianna Fail is being squeezed at both ends and the centre cannot hold.

Sinn Fein will have added appeal to many, especially southern voters, when they finally jettison Gerry Adams, one of the longest serving party leaders this side of Cuba.

Similarly Fine Gael would be best served to send Enda off to Europe or back up Kilaminjaro. Kenny is a weak leader. He refuses to debate his own policies, he is inarticulate and ineffective in the Dail.
Fine Gael also face the added difficulty of keeping moral conservatives on board over issues such as abortion, as seen by the departure of Lucinda Creighton.
Although Sinn Fein supporters seen to be more accepting of their party dogma it is only a matter of time before the party must confront the contradictions in their own support base, of older moral conservatives and and younger more liberal voters.
A more right wing, conservative fringe party, perhaps led by Creighton, may well be a king maker in future coalition governments. The natural partner for this group would be Fine Gael.
If Fianna Fail can maintain a core baseline support of around 10% they could also be key in providing support for a Sinn Fein coalition of the left.

The other main difference I see between the 2 polarising forces in Irish politics is their stance on Europe. On Friday Ireland look set to return up to 5 eurosceptic MEPs out of 11 seats. That marks a sea change in Ireland's relationship to Europe.

RecordStraight · 20-05-2014 08:07PM

Good post, SS. Ultimately SF will also have to face up to the fact that the magical money tree that is required to satisfy all the promises they can freely make in opposition is not to be found. I'd actually like to see them in the next government for this reason.

tritium · 20-05-2014 08:13PM

tayto lover wrote: »

There are many hard workers on a lot less with those same problems.

More sound bytes.

Are you implying that the people I'm talking about aren't hard workers?

Would you disagree that they're already significantly net contributors to the system?

Should they be penalised for the effort they've made to be successful- for the time and dedication and money that it cost them?

Should they be penalised on top of the other costs they already pay or have paid- more stress, often less time with family than the average worker, the sacrifice of addition all time to enable them to build their career?

Is all that worth the same at the end of the day as someone who didn't make those sacrifices? Should they be asked to sacrifice twice?

comongethappy · 20-05-2014 08:13PM

RecordStraight wrote: »

Good post, SS. Ultimately SF will also have to face up to the fact that the magical money tree that is required to satisfy all the promises they can freely make in opposition is not to be found. I'd actually like to see them in the next government for this reason.

It would be interesting to see them fail.
I fear Ireland wouldn't fare well through 1 term of them though.

Flex · 20-05-2014 08:15PM

SafeSurfer wrote: »

I think Friday's elections will show clearly that the old civil war politics of FG/FF are being left behind. The demarcation line now is one that we see in most western democracies, that of left wing and right wing ideologies.

Sinn Fein is emerging as the dominant party of the left while Fine Gael is strengthening its role as the party of law and order and fiscal rectitude, while Fianna Fail is being squeezed at both ends and the centre cannot hold.

Sinn Fein will have added appeal to many, especially southern voters, when they finally jettison Gerry Adams, one of the longest serving party leaders this side of Cuba.

Similarly Fine Gael would be best served to send Enda off to Europe or back up Kilaminjaro. Kenny is a weak leader. He refuses to debate his own policies, he is inarticulate and ineffective in the Dail.
Fine Gael also face the added difficulty of keeping moral conservatives on board over issues such as abortion, as seen by the departure of Lucinda Creighton.
Although Sinn Fein supporters seen to be more accepting of their party dogma it is only a matter of time before the party must confront the contradictions in their own support base, of older moral conservatives and and younger more liberal voters.
A more right wing, conservative fringe party, perhaps led by Creighton, may well be a king maker in future coalition governments. The natural partner for this group would be Fine Gael.
If Fianna Fail can maintain a core baseline support of around 10% they could also be key in providing support for a Sinn Fein coalition of the left.

The other main difference I see between the 2 polarising forces in Irish politics is their stance on Europe. On Friday Ireland look set to return up to 5 eurosceptic MEPs out of 11 seats. That marks a sea change in Ireland's relationship to Europe.

This would be quite interesting indeed. While I find it disappointing people are still willing to flock to whoever professes the most populism and uses best soundbites (in this case Sinn Fein), and sad that such ignorance exists in this day and age when information is so easily accessible, a proper right-left divide in our politics may be some potentially good thing to come out of Sinn Fein rising in popularity.

tayto lover · 20-05-2014 08:16PM

tritium wrote: »

More sound bytes.

Are you implying that the people I'm talking about aren't hard workers?

Would you disagree that they're already significantly net contributors to the system?

Should they be penalised for the effort they've made to be successful- for the time and dedication and money that it cost them?

Should they be penalised on top of the other costs they already pay or have paid- more stress, often less time with family than the average worker, the sacrifice of addition all time to enable them to build their career?

Is all that worth the same at the end of the day as someone who didn't make those sacrifices? Should they be asked to sacrifice twice?

Everybody makes sacrifices.
I even read on another thread a few months ago that member of the garda were sleeping in their cars as they couldn't afford the petrol to drive 20/30 miles home and then come back for their next shift. Same with nurses. Junior doctors working 38 hours in a row.
Why should someone be exempt pain and others not?

RecordStraight · 20-05-2014 08:18PM

Flex wrote: »

This would be quite interesting indeed. While I find it disappointing people are still willing to flock to whoever professes the most populism and uses best soundbites (in this case Sinn Fein), and sad that such ignorance exists in this day and age when information is so easily accessible, a proper right-left divide in our politics may be some potentially good thing to come out of Sinn Fein rising in popularity.

I'd say there's a big overlap between those people who are too lazy/ignorant to open a book and learn how things work, and those people who would benefit from taking from those who have succeeded to hand out to the less successful. People want easy answers, always have. And there have always been people happy to sell them to them.

RecordStraight · 20-05-2014 08:19PM

tayto lover wrote: »

Everybody makes sacrifices.
I even read on another thread a few months ago that member of the garda were sleeping in their cars as they couldn't afford the petrol to drive 20/30 miles home and then come back for their next shift. Same with nurses. Junior doctors working 38 hours in a row.
Why should someone be exempt pain and others not?

Some people have terrible diseases, others have none. Why is that fair? Everyone should be infected with some disease, that would be fairer.

tritium · 20-05-2014 08:19PM

tayto lover wrote: »

Everybody makes sacrifices.
I even read on another thread a few months ago that member of the garda were sleeping in their cars as they couldn't afford the petrol to drive 20/30 miles home and then come back for their next shift. Same with nurses. Junior doctors working 38 hours in a row.
Why should someone be exempt pain and others not?

They're not exempt the pain. Others have already shown that

Many of them also sacrificed in the good times to get to the level they're at.

Why should they always be asked to be the bottomless pit that pays?

tayto lover · 20-05-2014 08:21PM

tritium wrote: »

They're not exempt the pain. Others have already shown that

Many of them also sacrificed in the good times to get to the level they're at.

Why should they always be asked to be the bottomless pit that pays?

Why should the toilet cleaner or the road sweeper be left with hardly any money for food?
His job is important too.

AlexisM · 20-05-2014 08:24PM

tayto lover wrote: »

Why should the toilet cleaner or the road sweeper be left with hardly any money for food?

Can you give us an example (just a rough idea) of how the person's finances would look? No-one should be managing their finances such that they have hardly any money left for food.

Ray Palmer · 20-05-2014 08:31PM

tayto lover wrote: »

I have often thought about it myself in honesty but I decided to stay and contribute. Things might improve BUT there is far too much austerity.

You don't get it what happens then. To find my replacement they will spend time and money. If they find somebody they might do the same as me or that might be the very reason they won't find anybody.

So what happens then ? Ireland looses key skill to get work. Or wages need to go up to counter the taxes to keep people. Ireland starts being less attractive to invest in. Lost revenue. Solution raise taxes to pay for the less people working.

Say it is IT. The government expenses go up to maintain and develop systems. Say it engineers. Costs go up again.

It effects everything and the country is worse off. Taxes don't generate money the drain it away.

You cannot replace experience

bumper234 · 20-05-2014 08:34PM

tayto lover wrote: »

Why should the toilet cleaner or the road sweeper be left with hardly any money for food?
His job is important too.

So are you saying the toilet cleaner should get the same wages as someone who has gone to college for 4 years paid for the education and then worked for 10/15 years to get onto a decent wage or just that the toilet cleaner should pay less tax?

tritium · 20-05-2014 08:36PM

tayto lover wrote: »

Why should the toilet cleaner or the road sweeper be left with hardly any money for food?
His job is important too.

(my turn so)

What about the professional person who is struggling? Who has no net left after they've paid for creche fees and the mortgage and pay back the cost of their qualifications that they've slaved for years to get while others had that time to use as they saw fit? Who doesn't get the benefit of being 'only' asked to do 9-5 hours in a consistent location? Who doesn't get to see their kids or partner at night?

Why should they subsidise everyone on top of that?

tayto lover · 20-05-2014 08:38PM

AlexisM wrote: »

Can you give us an example (just a rough idea) of how the person's finances would look? No-one should be managing their finances such that they have hardly any money left for food.

I know a man who's take home pay is 314 euro per week.
He has 2 children.
He needs a car to get to work. Has an 04 Fiesta.
He lives in a small council house (don't know the rent).
Doesn't smoke or drink.
After food, clothing, rent, heat and car expenses he tells me he has the princely sum of 13 euro left weekly.
How much more austerity could he take if his story is true and I have no reason not to believe him?
He would be better off on the dole but he would rather work.
Don't know if he has a medical card but from reading other threads I doubt it.

mickydoomsux · 20-05-2014 08:40PM

tayto lover wrote: »

...I decided to stay and contribute.

But not contribute too much though, right?

You didn't leave because, in reality, things aren't that bad for you at all and you simply like a nice whinge much like most people in the country for the past few years.

tayto lover · 20-05-2014 08:41PM

mickydoomsux wrote: »

But not contribute too much though, right?

You didn't leave because, in reality, things aren't that bad for you at all and you simply like a nice whinge much like most people in the country for the past few years.

I employed between 9 and 15 people at one time in a small business.

Elmo · 20-05-2014 08:43PM

tayto lover wrote: »

I know a man who's take home pay is 314 euro per week.
He has 2 children.
He needs a car to get to work. Has an 04 Fiesta.
He lives in a small council house (don't know the rent).
Doesn't smoke or drink.
After food, clothing, rent, heat and car expenses he tells me he has the princely sum of 13 euro left weekly.
How much more austerity could he take if his story is true and I have no reason not to believe him?
He would be better off on the dole but he would rather work.
Don't know if he has a medical card but from reading other threads I doubt it.

Does he have Family Income Support?
Is his wife working?

He would get rent supplement when unemployed
First 9 months it would be 188 (though he sounds like he would have nil means)
124 for his wife
30 per child
372 per week
Car cost down etc etc.

He needs a new job.

bumper234 · 20-05-2014 08:45PM

tayto lover wrote: »

I know a man who's take home pay is 314 euro per week.
He has 2 children.
He needs a car to get to work. Has an 04 Fiesta.
He lives in a small council house (don't know the rent).
Doesn't smoke or drink.
After food, clothing, rent, heat and car expenses he tells me he has the princely sum of 13 euro left weekly.
How much more austerity could he take if his story is true and I have no reason not to believe him?
He would be better off on the dole but he would rather work.
Don't know if he has a medical card but from reading other threads I doubt it.

What's that smell???

Sniff sniff

Anyone?

:rolleyes:

Elmo · 20-05-2014 08:46PM

bumper234 wrote: »

What's that smell???

Sniff sniff

Anyone?

:rolleyes:

what is that? Oh! nothing.

tayto lover · 20-05-2014 08:50PM

bumper234 wrote: »

What's that smell???

Sniff sniff

Anyone?

:rolleyes:

I think it's Gilmour.
He has just realised he's history.

RecordStraight · 20-05-2014 08:50PM

bumper234 wrote: »

So are you saying the toilet cleaner should get the same wages as someone who has gone to college for 4 years paid for the education and then worked for 10/15 years to get onto a decent wage or just that the toilet cleaner should pay less tax?

According to the stats I posted earlier, before you look at the benefits those on low pay get (rent allowance, family income supplement etc.) they are paying a max of 4% tax. In actuality, they are almost certainly net beneficiaries.

WakeUp · 20-05-2014 09:16PM

SafeSurfer wrote: »

I think Friday's elections will show clearly that the old civil war politics of FG/FF are being left behind. The demarcation line now is one that we see in most western democracies, that of left wing and right wing ideologies.

Sinn Fein is emerging as the dominant party of the left while Fine Gael is strengthening its role as the party of law and order and fiscal rectitude, while Fianna Fail is being squeezed at both ends and the centre cannot hold.

Sinn Fein will have added appeal to many, especially southern voters, when they finally jettison Gerry Adams, one of the longest serving party leaders this side of Cuba.

Similarly Fine Gael would be best served to send Enda off to Europe or back up Kilaminjaro. Kenny is a weak leader. He refuses to debate his own policies, he is inarticulate and ineffective in the Dail.
Fine Gael also face the added difficulty of keeping moral conservatives on board over issues such as abortion, as seen by the departure of Lucinda Creighton.
Although Sinn Fein supporters seen to be more accepting of their party dogma it is only a matter of time before the party must confront the contradictions in their own support base, of older moral conservatives and and younger more liberal voters.
A more right wing, conservative fringe party, perhaps led by Creighton, may well be a king maker in future coalition governments. The natural partner for this group would be Fine Gael.
If Fianna Fail can maintain a core baseline support of around 10% they could also be key in providing support for a Sinn Fein coalition of the left.

The other main difference I see between the 2 polarising forces in Irish politics is their stance on Europe. On Friday Ireland look set to return up to 5 eurosceptic MEPs out of 11 seats. That marks a sea change in Ireland's relationship to Europe.

I find your analyisis interesting domestic politics dont usually garner much of my attention prefering to focus on international things though with the paradigm shift that is apparently taking shape times are intriuging to say the least. I fail to see how you can state that FG is strengthing its position as the party of law and order I really do considering the debacle surrounding their since departed justice minister and the current predicament of the guards along with the whistleblowers etc. If they are the party of law and order I dont think they are very good at it. rectitude is also an interesting coin of phrase depending on your definition(correct/honorable/moral/honest) when speaking of their fiscal policy(austerity?) thats debateable short term perhaps long term who knows.

Ray Palmer · 20-05-2014 09:19PM

RecordStraight wrote: »

According to the stats I posted earlier, before you look at the benefits those on low pay get (rent allowance, family income supplement etc.) they are paying a max of 4% tax. In actuality, they are almost certainly net beneficiaries.

I pay about 38-42% income tax to give an idea of scale and get no dole if things changed.

RecordStraight · 20-05-2014 09:20PM

WakeUp wrote: »

I find your analyisis interesting domestic politics dont usually garner much of my attention prefering to focus on international things though with the paradigm shift that is apparently taking shape times are intriuging to say the least. I fail to see how you can state that FG is strengthing its position as the party of law and order I really do considering the debacle surrounding their since departed justice minister and the current predicament of the guards along with the whistleblowers etc. If they are the party of law and order I dont think they are very good at it. rectitude is also an interesting coin of phrase depending on your definition(correct/honorable/moral/honest) when speaking of their fiscal policy(austerity?) thats debateable short term perhaps long term who knows.

Let me put it like this: how many Fianna Failure ministers resigned over the nearly 20 years they were in power after they f*cked up in their job?

And when you consider what a viper's nest of corruption and incompetence that Fianna Failure is, it becomes even more stark.

WakeUp · 20-05-2014 09:29PM

RecordStraight wrote: »

Let me put it like this: how many Fianna Failure ministers resigned over the nearly 20 years they were in power after they f*cked up in their job?

And when you consider what a viper's nest of corruption and incompetence that Fianna Failure is, it becomes even more stark.

Thats neither here nor there though is it. I tend to stay steer clear of domestic politics as its party politics, party politics/group think doesnt interest me youre reply to me just reinforces my belief. Though I dont fault you for it is how it works I understand this. Since the foundation of the state its pretty much been FF/FG running the show both of them I would suggest along with every other political party have suffered corruption and incompetence unfortunately it appears both are part of the system and part of political life.

RecordStraight · 20-05-2014 09:33PM

WakeUp wrote: »

Thats neither here nor there though is it. I tend to stay steer clear of domestic politics as its party politics, party politics/group think doesnt interest me youre reply to me just reinforces my belief. Though I dont fault you for it is how it works I understand this. Since the foundation of the state its pretty much been FF/FG running the show both of them I would suggest along with every other political party have suffered corruption and incompetence unfortunately it appears both are part of the system and part of political life.

I don't have a dog in the race. FG aren't exactly the world's greatest political party, but by god Fianna Failure make them look like philosopher kings. If there was an alternative, I'd be all ears.

SafeSurfer · 20-05-2014 09:40PM

WakeUp wrote: »

I find your analyisis interesting domestic politics dont usually garner much of my attention prefering to focus on international things though with the paradigm shift that is apparently taking shape times are intriuging to say the least. I fail to see how you can state that FG is strengthing its position as the party of law and order I really do considering the debacle surrounding their since departed justice minister and the current predicament of the guards along with the whistleblowers etc. If they are the party of law and order I dont think they are very good at it. rectitude is also an interesting coin of phrase depending on your definition(correct/honorable/moral/honest) when speaking of their fiscal policy(austerity?) thats debateable short term perhaps long term who knows.

I absolutely agree that recent scandals in the Justice ministry have tarnished the reputation of FG as the party of law and order but this is how they perceive themselves.
Their record on the economy is quite mixed and it is debatable whether they could have delivered something as significant as the Good Friday Agreement.

RecordStraight wrote: »

Let me put it like this: how many Fianna Failure ministers resigned over the nearly 20 years they were in power after they f*cked up in their job?

And when you consider what a viper's nest of corruption and incompetence that Fianna Failure is, it becomes even more stark.

Corruption has been widespread in FG also as planning scandals in various local authorities and the Mahon tribunal show. The Lowry scandal of the awarding of the third mobile phone licence to Denis O' Brien and the FG party's continued close relationship with him is an ongoing stain on FG's reputation.

RecordStraight · 20-05-2014 09:49PM

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Corruption has been widespread in FG also as planning scandals in various local authorities and the Mahon tribunal show. The Lowry scandal of the awarding of the third mobile phone licence to Denis O' Brien and the FG party's continued close relationship with him is an ongoing stain on FG's reputation.

Yup, but Lowry is the only proper (former) FG crook in the last 20 years and he was kicked out as soon as he was exposed. The fact that he is the example constantly given speaks volumes. Compare with Ahern, P Flynn, Lawlor, Burke, and half a dozen more Fianna Failures. (I guess Coveney was involved in a minor scandal too, but he also resigned and actually looked to be hard done by)

The county council level stuff was a complete shambles, with even Labour councillors implicated. But to suggest that FG and FFailure are even on the same corruption/incompetence planet - quantitatively or qualitatively - is not really credible.

SafeSurfer · 20-05-2014 10:07PM

RecordStraight wrote: »

Yup, but Lowry is the only proper (former) FG crook in the last 20 years and he was kicked out as soon as he was exposed. The fact that he is the example constantly given speaks volumes. Compare with Ahern, P Flynn, Lawlor, Burke, and half a dozen more Fianna Failures. (I guess Coveney was involved in a minor scandal too, but he also resigned and actually looked to be hard done by)

The county council level stuff was a complete shambles, with even Labour councillors implicated. But to suggest that FG and FFailure are even on the same corruption/incompetence planet - quantitatively or qualitatively - is not really credible.

I am not for a moment suggesting that FG corruption has been on the same level as FF. However FF have been in almost permanent power and therefore had more opportunity to act corruptly. One can't exonerate FG by saying they weren't as corrupt as FF anymore than one should favour the INLA because they were responsible for fewer deaths than the IRA.

The Pro Austerity Crowd

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