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Giving some of N.I. back to the Republic

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Comments

  • #362
    sparky42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,773 ✭✭✭sparky42


    T runner wrote: »
    The question is:

    Is NI having a relatively massive deficit within the UK sustainable in the long term? (12 billion is nothing to be sneezed at within the UK, especially when the microscope comes out after Scotland exits)

    If the answer is no (and it most certainly will be in the case of Scottish independence) then there will be a UI in the medium term.

    Note: The people of the Republic would pass a vote now for unification comfortably. A major backlash of Loyalist violence would be a worry.

    Id envision separate police services for a prolonged period. (East Ulster, Belfast, Rest of Ireland)

    In terms of the deficit, it's not a massive amount compared to the UK economy, even if Scotland leaves they will still be a Trillion Dollar plus economy. The burden of NI won't materially affect that.

    In terms of the Republic, no I doubt the majority of voter's would even think about it right now, add in the economic costs, the massive security issues (from both Loyalists and the Dissident Republicans who would remain violent) and the political and social issues, it's far from an automatic result.


  • #363
    RoyalCelt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,455 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    sparky42 wrote: »
    In terms of the deficit, it's not a massive amount compared to the UK economy, even if Scotland leaves they will still be a Trillion Dollar plus economy. The burden of NI won't materially affect that.

    In terms of the Republic, no I doubt the majority of voter's would even think about it right now, add in the economic costs, the massive security issues (from both Loyalists and the Dissident Republicans who would remain violent) and the political and social issues, it's far from an automatic result.

    I'd agree with that. I'd be pro unification for Ireland but not in the next 10-20 years.


  • #364
    sparky42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,773 ✭✭✭sparky42


    RoyalCelt wrote: »
    I'd agree with that. I'd be pro unification for Ireland but not in the next 10-20 years.

    In 10-20 years if we are lucky both sides in the North will at least be able to discuss matters without threatening to bring down the assembly if they don't get their way (which at the moment they can't). They still have a long way to go to conducting themselves as a normal democratic society.

    The burden economically, socially and in security for the Republic would be huge no matter when it happens and frankly I completely unconvinced that even within 20 years you'll have the population support in NI to win a poll (please don't quote just the Catholic/Protestant numbers, the divide doesn't break down like that)


  • #365
    ChicagoJoe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 372 ✭✭ChicagoJoe


    alastair wrote: »
    You think? There's two problems with that theory. Firstly, the state is obligated to provide equal public services to NI as long as it remains within the UK, so they're limited in what they can cut on a selective basis, and secondly, any attempt to coerce people out of the union would risk a kick-off of the troubles, which would cost them more than maintaining the status quo. The cost of subsidising NI isn't that big a deal in the overall picture of the UK economy, and remember that there's another player in the equation; NI can't be foisted on the Irish state without the agreement of the Irish voters in a referendum, and the appeal of inheriting an extra annual deficit of 12 billion by choice, would be pretty limited.

    NI will remain a part of the UK, with whatever costs it incurs, until the people of NI (and Ireland) decide otherwise. I wouldn't hold my breath.
    "an extra annual deficit of 12 billion" You keep throwing this out but again and again you fail to show that this is the actual correct figure. It's just to paraphrase Anglo Irish bankers, a figure pulled out of their ar$e.


  • #366
    sparky42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,773 ✭✭✭sparky42


    ChicagoJoe wrote: »
    "an extra annual deficit of 12 billion" You keep throwing this out but again and again you fail to show that this is the actual correct figure. It's just to paraphrase Anglo Irish bankers, a figure pulled out of their ar$e.

    Yeah it only comes from the Department of Finance of NI, I'm sure you have a far more firm grasp of the micro and macro economic situation of NI than they do.:rolleyes:


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  • #367
    alastair
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,311 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    ChicagoJoe wrote: »
    "an extra annual deficit of 12 billion" You keep throwing this out but again and again you fail to show that this is the actual correct figure. It's just to paraphrase Anglo Irish bankers, a figure pulled out of their ar$e.

    No it's not. Last year's NI annual deficit was €11.6 billion. As already explained to you - it's the actual inland revenue figures for NI. I posted a link to the published figures a while back.
    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/news/northern-ireland-is-officially-one-of-uks-costliest-regions-as-fiscal-deficit-hits-9bn-30152040.html
    http://www.dfpni.gov.uk/publications-foi/publications-browse/publication-scheme-what-we-spend-how-we-spend-it/publication-scheme-what-we-spend-financial-statements/northern-ireland-net-fiscal-balance-report.htm
    http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/Documents/RaISe/Publications/2012/finance_personnel/19712.pdf


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