Nigel Farage MEP

SeanW · 01-05-2014 01:53AM

Nodin wrote: »

Doesn't strike you as a tad odd that something as small as a political party can have so many people with the same type of views? It's almost as if they were all drawn together by some common denominator....

The only common denominator between UKIPers is a desire for the United Kingdom to exit the European Union. After that they're like everyone else, different people with different - and often wildly divergent views. Some (people, views) good, some bad.

Like everyone else. Indeed like any other group you might think of.

McDave wrote: »

Euro membership has exposed economies to real competitive forces. Most countries have performed OK within the currency zone. You don't have to be no. 1 to benefit. Some countries have had a very bad time. But that is on account of domestic factors, such as lack of regulation and oversight here, lack of government control in Spain, and an out and out failed polity in Greece. The Euro didn't cause our problems, our policies did. The Euro didn't cause Greeks to dodge taxes and not take their state seriously. It was their own culture.

On the merits of Greece joining, it's a political judgement looking to the future. The EU would prefer to be inclusive, and that probably drove the willingness to include Greece in the Euro. The Euro doesn't have to be perfect now. It just has to function overall. It happens to have been tested severely, and regardless even Greece has managed to stay on board.

This bodes well for the future of the Euro, and hopefully for Greece too. If they can rebalance their economy within the next decade, I reckon their population will reckon it was worth it in the end, the alternative would have been continued gloom and corruption bringing Greece closer to the poorer countries of the east, than the OECD-level country it still is, despite all its tribulations.

Huh

Modern economics, which is Keynesian in nature, requires BOTH fiscal AND moetary levers to adjust the "business cycle." You cannot blame the governments or peoples of the peripheral economies - at a different stage in the "cycle" to France and Germany for whose benefit the rates were set too low.
Remember that BOTH Austrian and Keynesian economists are united in predicting what happens when interest rates are too low. Boom and bust. Entirely predictable. Entirely avoidable. Plus the differences between countries as divergent Germany and Greece may be irreconcilable. Their cultures, histories, economies, languages etc are so different they may never fit coherently into a single currency. Time will tell.

sin_city · 01-05-2014 02:04AM

McDave wrote: »

Euro membership has exposed economies to real competitive forces. Most countries have performed OK within the currency zone.

And you somehow know how they would have performed outside the currency zone?

Maybe everyone would have been better.

McDave wrote: »

You don't have to be no. 1 to benefit. Some countries have had a very bad time. But that is on account of domestic factors, such as lack of regulation and oversight here, lack of government control in Spain,

You don’t know anything about the work laws in Spain do you? I lived there for 2 years and I can tell you the lack of regulation is not the issue. There’s too much and this is a huge issue with regard to youth unemployment and productivity of the existing employees.

McDave wrote: »

The Euro didn't cause our problems, our policies did.

So low interest rates to spur on the German economy don’t impact on us when needed higher interest rates to cool our economy?

McDave wrote: »

The Euro didn't cause Greeks to dodge taxes and not take their state seriously. It was their own culture.

They could have devalued their currency like the British did in the 70s..Now they can’t and they suffer.

Guess it’s all on the borrowers…Shouldn’t the lender have some responsibility for being so dumb to lend so much to the Greeks?

McDave wrote: »

This bodes well for the future of the Euro, and hopefully for Greece too. If they can rebalance their economy within the next decade, I reckon their population will reckon it was worth it in the end, the alternative would have been continued gloom and corruption bringing Greece closer to the poorer countries of the east, than the OECD-level country it still is, despite all its tribulations.

Didn’t their former leader have a large sum of money deposited into his mother’s bank account? What if they can’t “rebalance their economy”?

They’ve still got a massive debt and a third bailout is never out of the question…You can only kick a can down the road so many times.

McDave · 01-05-2014 07:50AM

SeanW wrote: »

Modern economics, which is Keynesian in nature, requires BOTH fiscal AND moetary levers to adjust the "business cycle." You cannot blame the governments or peoples of the peripheral economies - at a different stage in the "cycle" to France and Germany for whose benefit the rates were set too low.
Remember that BOTH Austrian and Keynesian economists are united in predicting what happens when interest rates are too low. Boom and bust. Entirely predictable. Entirely avoidable. Plus the differences between countries as divergent Germany and Greece may be irreconcilable. Their cultures, histories, economies, languages etc are so different they may never fit coherently into a single currency. Time will tell.

The Irish government took explicit and enduring steps to stoke up the 'business cycle' in the most irresponsible pro-cyclical manner possible, and made no effort to inform itself on what was happening in the macroeconomy, let alone regulate and oversee major components of the economy.

The vision, law and policy underpinning the Euro is *specifically designed to avoid boom and bust policies*.

It's simply beyond deluded at this point to ignore the active and passive policy role played by the Irish government during the financial crisis. Greece was even worse. Most other EZ countries did fine during the last six or so years.

There is no economic or other law which states that all geographic components of a single currency have to be on the same level. Some countries and even regions will always have more money than others. I'd hazard Greeks will always have to make do with less money than Germans. The value of what then have will be the same whether it's in Drachmas or Euros. The difference being in the Euro is that Greece is exposed to disciplines which will force it to face up to its corruption and appalling governance, despite which even today it still ranks among the wealthier nations on Earth.

Your outlook seems to me to be negative. Which to me chimes with the attitude of Farage and UKIP. I suppose I'm more optimistic. But that's the nature of the EU which is attempting to forge commonalities between neighbours in a competitive and hostile world. There's no harm in trying out this vision, which most European countries want to be part of and which is quite successful, particularly when you see the shenanigans in other parts of the world not far removed from EU borders.

McDave · 01-05-2014 08:00AM

sin_city wrote: »

And you somehow know how they would have performed outside the currency zone?

Maybe everyone would have been better.

You don’t know anything about the work laws in Spain do you? I lived there for 2 years and I can tell you the lack of regulation is not the issue. There’s too much and this is a huge issue with regard to youth unemployment and productivity of the existing employees.

So low interest rates to spur on the German economy don’t impact on us when needed higher interest rates to cool our economy?

They could have devalued their currency like the British did in the 70s..Now they can’t and they suffer.

Guess it’s all on the borrowers…Shouldn’t the lender have some responsibility for being so dumb to lend so much to the Greeks?

Didn’t their former leader have a large sum of money deposited into his mother’s bank account? What if they can’t “rebalance their economy”?

They’ve still got a massive debt and a third bailout is never out of the question…You can only kick a can down the road so many times.

SeanW blames the Euro for the travails of peripherals. Which by your formula cannot be proved either, if, as you claim, alternative outcomes cannot be posited. So take up your lack of willingness to consider other possibilities with him.

Like SeanW, you don't get that we did practically everything in the book to stoke up the heat in our own economy. We didn't even consider cooling mechanisms. Completely our own fault, not the Euro's. What's worse is by ignoring our own part in our downfall, you'd make the same mistakes again, proving that you cannot even learn from our own systemic political, legal and economic failures.

McDave · 01-05-2014 08:04AM

sin_city wrote: »

They could have devalued their currency like the British did in the 70s..Now they can’t and they suffer.

The Greeks could have devalued their currency? That's pure comedy gold.

The first thing Greece needs to do is build a properly functioning state and economy, not pulling stunts to continually stave off disaster.

oscarBravo · 01-05-2014 09:32AM

sin_city, you may have missed this question:

oscarBravo wrote: »

Let me turn the question around: when has the EU ever forced a member state to be a party to a treaty that that member state hadn't agreed to ratify?

Nodin · 01-05-2014 01:15PM

SeanW wrote: »

The only common denominator between UKIPers is a desire for the United Kingdom to exit the European Union. After that they're like everyone else, different people with different - and often wildly divergent views. ...........

If only....if only.....

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-handed-fresh-embarrassment-as-backer-demetri-marchessini-claims-theres-no-such-thing-as-marital-rape-9308272.html

sin_city · 01-05-2014 01:41PM

McDave wrote: »

SeanW blames the Euro for the travails of peripherals. Which by your formula cannot be proved either, if, as you claim, alternative outcomes cannot be posited. So take up your lack of willingness to consider other possibilities with him.

Like SeanW, you don't get that we did practically everything in the book to stoke up the heat in our own economy. We didn't even consider cooling mechanisms. Completely our own fault, not the Euro's. What's worse is by ignoring our own part in our downfall, you'd make the same mistakes again, proving that you cannot even learn from our own systemic political, legal and economic failures.

The reason the economy was heated up as to get the German economy going. We, with a population of 4ish million don't come into the equation.

Clemens J.M. Kool, Utrecht School of Economics, Mar 2005, What Drives ECB Monetary Policy?

"Actual interest rates have been consistent with German (and to a lesser extent French) preferences, however. It suggests the ECB puts a dominant weight on German economic developments. Small peripheral countries receive too low weight rather than too high."

From 2005, http://www.bized.co.uk/current/mind/2004_5/140305.htm

"In France and Spain the low interest rates have fuelled the property market with prices growing at an average of 16% and 17% respectively......Both France and Spain might argue that their economies would be best served by a tightening of monetary policy (raising interest rates), whereas the German economy could each do with a loosening of monetary policy to boost economic growth and reduce the rising levels of unemployment that are blighting both countries."

From skool.ie, lol and you don't get it

Interest rates are one of the main tools of monetary policy. By joining the Euro, Ireland has given up the right to an independent monetary policy. Interest rates will only change in future due to the needs of 'Euroland' (the 12 members using the Euro), which is dominated by the needs of France and Germany.

McDave wrote: »

The Greeks could have devalued their currency? That's pure comedy gold.

The first thing Greece needs to do is build a properly functioning state and economy, not pulling stunts to continually stave off disaster.

Greece has been going through this since the 1800s but in the past it would be able to restructure its debt. Now it can't.

You think you can change a culture in a few years....Greeks act like Greeks and Germans act like Germans.

Here's the file , Carmen M. Reinhart is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard

http://www.carmenreinhart.com/user_uploads/data/23_data.xls

Lol at your ignorance.

McDave · 01-05-2014 05:58PM

sin_city wrote: »

The reason the economy was heated up as to get the German economy going. We, with a population of 4ish million don't come into the equation.

Clemens J.M. Kool, Utrecht School of Economics, Mar 2005, What Drives ECB Monetary Policy?

"Actual interest rates have been consistent with German (and to a lesser extent French) preferences, however. It suggests the ECB puts a dominant weight on German economic developments. Small peripheral countries receive too low weight rather than too high."

From 2005, http://www.bized.co.uk/current/mind/2004_5/140305.htm

"In France and Spain the low interest rates have fuelled the property market with prices growing at an average of 16% and 17% respectively......Both France and Spain might argue that their economies would be best served by a tightening of monetary policy (raising interest rates), whereas the German economy could each do with a loosening of monetary policy to boost economic growth and reduce the rising levels of unemployment that are blighting both countries."

From skool.ie, lol and you don't get it

Interest rates are one of the main tools of monetary policy. By joining the Euro, Ireland has given up the right to an independent monetary policy. Interest rates will only change in future due to the needs of 'Euroland' (the 12 members using the Euro), which is dominated by the needs of France and Germany.

Greece has been going through this since the 1800s but in the past it would be able to restructure its debt. Now it can't.

You think you can change a culture in a few years....Greeks act like Greeks and Germans act like Germans.

Here's the file , Carmen M. Reinhart is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard

http://www.carmenreinhart.com/user_uploads/data/23_data.xls

Lol at your ignorance.

EZ interest rates relate to the EZ overall, not to any given economy within it. Blaming the Germans is deluded. Our 4 million matters to ourselves, and we had all the tools we needed to dampen excessive growth. But we chose to use our sovereign policy tools to stone up a bubble. It's obviously a simple factor you choose to ignore, for whatever reason. Other EZ countries big, medium and small made it through the financial crisis quite fine. How did they manage that, and we didn't? The answers are blindingly obvious, and they include McCreevy, Ahern, Cowen, Hurley, Neary, Fitzpatrick, Quinn and Dunne. Populist spendthrifts or gamblers all.

sin_city · 02-05-2014 12:01AM

McDave wrote: »

EZ interest rates relate to the EZ overall, not to any given economy within it.

I just provided 3 links from between 2003 -2006(there are many more) that says what you have written is not true. If you can provide links to counter this from reputable sources I'd like to see them otherwise it's your just opinion and I believe it to be wrong.

McDave wrote: »

Blaming the Germans is deluded. Our 4 million matters to ourselves, and we had all the tools we needed to dampen excessive growth.

Most politicians wouldn't ever sacrifice themselves in an election to do the right thing. They were (and still are) kicking the can down the road long before the crisis. What tools are you talking about? To dampen excessive growth you raise interest rates.

McDave wrote: »

But we chose to use our sovereign policy tools to stone up a bubble. It's obviously a simple factor you choose to ignore, for whatever reason.

The Fed in the US also had interest rates too low. The Central banks are largely to blame however in Europe they had an excuse in trying to get the German economy going.

McDave wrote: »

Other EZ countries big, medium and small made it through the financial crisis quite fine. How did they manage that, and we didn't?

Just because it’s not in the news doesn't mean anything has been fixed. The debts are huge still. Why do you think they are so worried about deflation?

McDave wrote: »

The answers are blindingly obvious, and they include McCreevy, Ahern, Cowen, Hurley, Neary, Fitzpatrick, Quinn and Dunne. Populist spendthrifts or gamblers all.

These types of people got voted in…You get what you vote for.

SeanW · 02-05-2014 12:56AM

Nodin wrote: »

If only....if only.....

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-handed-fresh-embarrassment-as-backer-demetri-marchessini-claims-theres-no-such-thing-as-marital-rape-9308272.html

So you show another singular example, of someone who is probably not even a party member, let alone a representative, and likely would never be in a million years, and you use that to tar all of UKIP with that brush? The leadership? The party rank and file? The supporters? Who is included in these broad extrapolations?

Thing about your selective generalisation is that it is by now clearly transparent. You've made it clear that you have certain double standards on this, happy to generalise like hell about some groups that you do not favour, while not being so keen to generalise about groups that you do. You've proven that beyond doubt.

If it were just so badly exaggerated, infantile, bizarre and borderline hypocritical, that would be bad enough.

But your position is actually dangerous, because when people who take it to heart get into positions of power, they commit egregious abuses based solely on the sort of position that you have outlined. Clearly there need to be much stronger safeguards against people with thought processes like yours.

sin_city wrote: »

"Actual interest rates have been consistent with German (and to a lesser extent French) preferences, however. It suggests the ECB puts a dominant weight on German economic developments. Small peripheral countries receive too low weight rather than too high."

From 2005, http://www.bized.co.uk/current/mind/2004_5/140305.htm

"In France and Spain the low interest rates have fuelled the property market with prices growing at an average of 16% and 17% respectively......Both France and Spain might argue that their economies would be best served by a tightening of monetary policy (raising interest rates), whereas the German economy could each do with a loosening of monetary policy to boost economic growth and reduce the rising levels of unemployment that are blighting both countries."

From skool.ie, lol and you don't get it

Interest rates are one of the main tools of monetary policy. By joining the Euro, Ireland has given up the right to an independent monetary policy. Interest rates will only change in future due to the needs of 'Euroland' (the 12 members using the Euro), which is dominated by the needs of France and Germany.
...
You think you can change a culture in a few years....Greeks act like Greeks and Germans act like Germans.

QFT!!!

It is a fact that BOTH interest rates and fiscal policy were too loose in the peripheral countries. That means that membership of the Eurozone had a 50% role, because interest rates were a part of the boom and bust.

Aboslving the ECB and the concept of a common currency/interest rate from the multiple crises - some of them bordering on a humanitarian catastrophe - not only suggests both logical and moral bankruptcy (because it seems to me to be a case of "onwards with our Euro dream, just don't get your shoes dirty when stepping over the bodies"), but its dangerous because it falls afoul of a rule outlined to us by a cerain wartime UK prime minister and some philosphers before him:

Winston Churchill wrote:

Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

Noone disputes that national governments had a role in the peripheral economies problems, but to assume that fitting a single monetary policy to wildly disparate countries in wildly different circumstances could not have caused any of the resulting problems is bizarre, and it may doom a future generation to a similar catastrophe.

Jonny7 · 02-05-2014 01:37AM

SeanW wrote: »

So you show another singular example, of someone who is probably not even a party member, let alone a representative, and likely would never be in a million years, and you use that to tar all of UKIP with that brush? The leadership? The party rank and file? The supporters? Who is included in these broad extrapolations?

Same could be said of any party.. the Tea party, the BNP, the Lib Dems, Sinn Fein, Fianna Fail..

We generally know where parties stand and UKIP aren't particularly hard to figure out

http://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/themes/5308a93901925b5b09000002/attachments/original/1398869254/EuroManifestoLaunch.pdf?1398869254

Strip out all the parts where they blame Europe and Johnny foreigner and you're left with not much at all

sin_city · 02-05-2014 02:27AM

SeanW wrote: »

QFT!!!
It is a fact that BOTH interest rates and fiscal policy were too loose in the peripheral countries. That means that membership of the Eurozone had a 50% role, because interest rates were a part of the boom and bust.

Is it a Fact? Well if it is a fact provide some support to prove it, otherwise it is just your opinion. 50%? When people throw out figures like this with no backup I am very suspicious of the origin of the figures.

I’ve already given links regarding the ECB….Can you provide something on your 50% claim?

SeanW wrote: »

Aboslving the ECB and the concept of a common currency/interest rate from the multiple crises - some of them bordering on a humanitarian catastrophe - not only suggests both logical and moral bankruptcy (because it seems to me to be a case of "onwards with our Euro dream, just don't get your shoes dirty when stepping over the bodies"), but its dangerous because it falls afoul of a rule outlined to us by a cerain wartime UK prime minister and some philosphers before him:
Noone disputes that national governments had a role in the peripheral economies problems, but to assume that fitting a single monetary policy to wildly disparate countries in wildly different circumstances could not have caused any of the resulting problems is bizarre, and it may doom a future generation to a similar catastrophe.

Amazing…so many words and saying nothing.

Joe Doe · 02-05-2014 02:41AM

Enjoyed his slating at the eu-hq of that fellow with the ears - (the one that was in lord of the rings).

Still undecided otherwise, seems like a good laugh - but too many of those pints (he's always dawn the boozer) and he might bring back paying for goods in salt, drinking from yard glasses, cobblestones and ye olde town cryers etc.

Nodin · 02-05-2014 07:36AM

SeanW wrote: »

So you show another singular example,.............

Yep. Yet another singular example.

SeanW · 02-05-2014 12:47PM

Nodin wrote: »

Yep. Yet another singular example.

I may reply further later on.

In the meantime, do you need any extra tar for that brush? :pac:

McDave · 02-05-2014 04:51PM

sin_city wrote: »

I just provided 3 links from between 2003 -2006(there are many more) that says what you have written is not true. If you can provide links to counter this from reputable sources I'd like to see them otherwise it's your just opinion and I believe it to be wrong.

Most politicians wouldn't ever sacrifice themselves in an election to do the right thing. They were (and still are) kicking the can down the road long before the crisis. What tools are you talking about? To dampen excessive growth you raise interest rates.

The Fed in the US also had interest rates too low. The Central banks are largely to blame however in Europe they had an excuse in trying to get the German economy going.

Just because it’s not in the news doesn't mean anything has been fixed. The debts are huge still. Why do you think they are so worried about deflation?

These types of people got voted in…You get what you vote for.

Your links are nothing other than opinion as well. They don't demonstrate any 'truth', as you so simplistically put it.

Of course what I write is my opinion. It happened to be my opinion back in the noughties as well as this whole car crash was happening. Believe what you like.

However if you're going up persist with your opinion that our problems are due to the Euro, you're condemned to repeat the same mistakes all over again. And if we vote the same kinds of politicians again making the same kinds of mistakes, the resulting problems will yet again be of our own making, not the Euro's. And we'll look trebly stupid if most other EZ countries manage to make a decent fist of their economies in the meantime.

In my opinion.

dlouth15 · 02-05-2014 07:22PM

sin_city wrote: »

Is it a Fact? Well if it is a fact provide some support to prove it, otherwise it is just your opinion. 50%? When people throw out figures like this with no backup I am very suspicious of the origin of the figures.

I’ve already given links regarding the ECB….Can you provide something on your 50% claim?

I posted this a while back on another thread about the role of interest rates. It shows the interest rates countries would have had based on what is known as the Taylor rule had they their own currency and central bank. Whether it is 50% is a matter of debate but it does show that as a consequence of our membership of the Eurozone we had very low interest rates.

dlouth15 wrote: »

Secondly, there's fairly established methods a central bank uses for determining interest rates. Whilst the central bank doesn't need to follow these exactly, they suggest that Irish interest rates would have been much higher during the period of the boom simply as a result of standard procedure of the central bank.

You can see that the Eurozone as a whole follows the Taylor-rule recommendation reasonably closely but when you get down to individual countries, there's a huge variation between the recommendation for a particular economy and the rate that was actually set. In particular at the rates for Ireland in last graph.

Have a read of the article here.

Nodin · 02-05-2014 09:37PM

SeanW wrote: »

I may reply further later on.

In the meantime, do you need any extra tar for that brush? :pac:

I don't even need a brush. They're self tarring.

comongethappy · 03-05-2014 05:37PM

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10806286/Ukip-candidate-suspended-after-calling-Muslims-devils-kids.html

Its such a remarkable coincidence that its UKIP again & again having to suspend members for stuff like this.

Nodin · 03-05-2014 05:53PM

comongethappy wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10806286/Ukip-candidate-suspended-after-calling-Muslims-devils-kids.html

Its such a remarkable coincidence that its UKIP again & again having to suspend members for stuff like this.

Another single case, which in now way shows a pattern of homophobic little Englander xenophobia.

The Corinthian · 04-05-2014 11:22AM

Nodin wrote: »

Another single case, which in now way shows a pattern of homophobic little Englander xenophobia.

From what I can see, the last two weeks alone have revealed three such single cases; Andre Lampitt, William Henwood and now Harry Perry. And these are just the candidates.

So how many single cases, do you suggest, are needed before one admits that there is a pattern?

Nodin · 04-05-2014 02:58PM

The Corinthian wrote: »

From what I can see, the last two weeks alone have revealed three such single cases; Andre Lampitt, William Henwood and now Harry Perry. And these are just the candidates.

So how many single cases, do you suggest, are needed before one admits that there is a pattern?

....you might read over the last two-three pages.

The Corinthian · 04-05-2014 03:26PM

Nodin wrote: »

....you might read over the last two-three pages.

I have. I'm not accusing you of being anything other than sarcastic or ironic; just posing an open question of those who do use the isolated 'bad apple' defence.

How many singular examples are needed before someone has to concede that they're not the exception but more likely the rule?

To me it's almost as bad a defence as the straight talker defence earlier for Farage, until someone points out that someone less desirable, like Berlusconi, or that Farage warned us about the 2008 crisis... well he is sort of associated with some people who may have warned us...

There's few fora on Boards that have have this kind of dishonest soapboxing, typically from a small pool of re-regs, as here.

AlekSmart · 04-05-2014 03:27PM

McDave wrote: »

EZ interest rates relate to the EZ overall, not to any given economy within it. Blaming the Germans is deluded. Our 4 million matters to ourselves, and we had all the tools we needed to dampen excessive growth. But we chose to use our sovereign policy tools to stone up a bubble. It's obviously a simple factor you choose to ignore, for whatever reason. Other EZ countries big, medium and small made it through the financial crisis quite fine. How did they manage that, and we didn't? The answers are blindingly obvious, and they include McCreevy, Ahern, Cowen, Hurley, Neary, Fitzpatrick,Quinn and Dunne. Populist spendthrifts or gamblers all.

Well said....Populist and POPULAR,not just flash in the pan,but in the case of the first three, consistently so,over decades of offering themselves and their views to the Irish Electorate.

At NO point in the entire democratic process,did this electorate pause for reflection,hold a finger up to the prevailing wind and perhaps take note of the darkening horizon...Instead it hefted these guys up on it's communal shoulders and Yahoo'd around the counting centre's of old Erin.

Yet today,few have any memory of those days,leaving us to ask if it was Aliens who placed those hundreds of thousands of X's beside those familiar names ?

Scofflaw · 04-05-2014 08:02PM

dlouth15 wrote: »

I posted this a while back on another thread about the role of interest rates. It shows the interest rates countries would have had based on what is known as the Taylor rule had they their own currency and central bank. Whether it is 50% is a matter of debate but it does show that as a consequence of our membership of the Eurozone we had very low interest rates.

Hmm. Does "OMG single interest rate for multiple countries fails to follow interest rate optimum for single country!" fully cover the revelatory force of that?

cordially,
Scofflaw

SeanW · 05-05-2014 05:21AM

McDave wrote: »

However if you're going up persist with your opinion that our problems are due to the Euro, you're condemned to repeat the same mistakes all over again.

No my friend, it is YOU who may condemn us to repeat these mistakes. By only accepting half of the causal factors (the national governments in control of the fiscal policy) and excluding the other half of the causal factors (commonly set interest rates from the supra-national European Union/Euro/ECB), you risk allowing something of that nature to happen again. Perhaps not this year or even in the next 10 years, but eventually there may come a time when different countries once again require divergent monetary policy. Locked inside the Eurozone, this will be impossible, unless we recognise in full, all the causes of THIS crisis - including the monetary ones - and put in place measure to prevent that aspect of it from being repeated.

Your reluctance to do so is bizarre, presenting as you do the strawman of opponents absolving national governments of fault, likely the result of ideological support for the European Union project, a desire to shield it from due scrutiny. The reasons for doing this, are most likely best known to your good self.

Nodin wrote: »

I don't even need a brush. They're self tarring.

Who are "they"? Please, be specific.

The Corinthian wrote: »

So how many single cases, do you suggest, are needed before one admits that there is a pattern?

As many as it takes for you, or Nodin, or some other radical leftist, to prove that the individuals in question (the fellows that blamed gay marriage for the flooding, want to send black people back to Bongo Bongo land. etc) either:

Share those views with the party leadership, i.e. the people who suspended them.
Speak on behalf of the vast majority of UKIP members, supporters, or likely voters.

Until you can prove either one of those conclusively, the current evidence shows that UKIP is a legitimate party with a legitimate political point of view.

You on the other hand are demonstrably engaging in ideologically driven smear tactics, and in the case of Nodin, raising the question of double standards while doing so.

McDave · 05-05-2014 10:45AM

SeanW wrote: »

No my friend, it is YOU who may condemn us to repeat these mistakes. By only accepting half of the causal factors (the national governments in control of the fiscal policy) and excluding the other half of the causal factors (commonly set interest rates from the supra-national European Union/Euro/ECB), you risk allowing something of that nature to happen again. Perhaps not this year or even in the next 10 years, but eventually there may come a time when different countries once again require divergent monetary policy. Locked inside the Eurozone, this will be impossible, unless we recognise in full, all the causes of THIS crisis - including the monetary ones - and put in place measure to prevent that aspect of it from being repeated.

Your reluctance to do so is bizarre, presenting as you do the strawman of opponents absolving national governments of fault, likely the result of ideological support for the European Union project, a desire to shield it from due scrutiny. The reasons for doing this, are most likely best known to your good self.

The 'half of causal factors' you claim I exclude transpired to be irrelevant to the majority of EZ countries who have navigated through the entire credit crisis relatively unscathed. You cannot even demonstrate in practice how those factors determine in themselves negative outcomes, let alone in theory (which will no doubt be revised in economic text books in light of the success of the Euro model).

It's really actually quite simple at the end of the day SeanW. Countries which sign up to the Euro are ceding certain macroeconomic tools to the ECB. That's a known known. In return they commit to balancing public income and expenditure and run sustainable macroeconomies. The countries with the biggest problems transpired in the main to be those with the largest budget deficits and/or debts. Certain of these also have significant competitiveness and enterprise problems. All of these problems would exist with or without the Euro as they reside in the economic cultures of those countries. By joining the Euro they have committed to address those problems in greater depth having originally committed to market mechanisms in earlier treaties.

As for absolving national governments of fault, it's quite clear there are those who would be quite happy to get off scot free for their part in our downfall, primary among them Fianna Fáil. Follow the (destruction of) money.

sin_city · 05-05-2014 11:26AM

dlouth15 wrote: »

I posted this a while back on another thread about the role of interest rates. It shows the interest rates countries would have had based on what is known as the Taylor rule had they their own currency and central bank. Whether it is 50% is a matter of debate but it does show that as a consequence of our membership of the Eurozone we had very low interest rates.

So you're agreeing with me?

The 50% is pie in the sky stuff...a figure plucked from nowhere.

Nodin · 05-05-2014 02:14PM

SeanW wrote: »

Who are "they"? Please, be specific..

Obvious as it is, UKIP.

Nigel Farage MEP

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