2014 Champion Hurdle

pugw · 07-03-2014 03:48PM

Lads going doing a reverse forecast on our Conor and the fly shud I write the prices on d docket?? At 9/2 and 11/4 it shud pay around 16/1 shouldn't it? Or is it calculates on SP? Thanks

mulbot · 07-03-2014 04:57PM

pugw wrote: »

Lads going doing a reverse forecast on our Conor and the fly shud I write the prices on d docket?? At 9/2 and 11/4 it shud pay around 16/1 shouldn't it? Or is it calculates on SP? Thanks

nearly sure its the SP that counts

Harry Angstrom · 07-03-2014 05:03PM

It's based on the Tote returns surely? No need to write down the prices.

Unless you mean Ladbrokes are giving fixed odds specifically on a Hurricane Fly/Our Conor Reverse Forecast?

mulbot · 07-03-2014 05:04PM

hucklebuck wrote: »

MTOY is in the top 5 in the market and needs a frenetic pace, he was hacking all over TNO into the Kempton race just waiting to be told to go.

MTOY was far more inconvenienced by Ruby setting his own pace last year than Jezki.

well the pace ruby set off was a quick pace,are you saying it wasn't fast enough? i backed him last year,thought the money was in as he was cruising then just wasn't able to pick up enough-i can't see how he will win this year off any sort of pace

pugw · 07-03-2014 05:16PM

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

It's based on the Tote returns surely? No need to write down the prices.

Unless you mean Ladbrokes are giving fixed odds specifically on a Hurricane Fly/Our Conor Reverse Forecast?

are ladbrokes doing a special on the 2?

Harry Angstrom · 07-03-2014 05:22PM

pugw wrote: »

are ladbrokes doing a special on the 2?

Not that I know of, but if you're doing a Reverse Forecast, you don't write down the prices, as the dividend is determined by the Tote pool returns.

mdwexford · 07-03-2014 05:26PM

mulbot wrote: »

so using that logic,MTOY cant win

premierstone wrote: »

Exactly, and won't place either

Yeah because horses never improve from their novice season to open company....:rolleyes:

mulbot wrote: »

well the pace ruby set off was a quick pace,are you saying it wasn't fast enough? i backed him last year,thought the money was in as he was cruising then just wasn't able to pick up enough-i can't see how he will win this year off any sort of pace

Ruby kept enough up his sleeve to keep MTOY at bay.

He will get there off any pace, this year he is stronger and will hopefully be able to finish off his races even better than last year.

mulbot · 07-03-2014 05:33PM

mdwexford wrote: »

Yeah because horses never improve from their novice season to open company....:rolleyes:

Ruby kept enough up his sleeve to keep MTOY at bay.

He will get there off any pace, this year he is stronger and will hopefully be able to finish off his races even better than last year.

"ruby kept enough up his sleeve to keep MTOY at bay" that adds more to my point,if he(CF) had gone quicker MTOY would have been beaten even further:p

premierstone · 07-03-2014 05:38PM

mdwexford wrote: »

Yeah because horses never improve from their novice season to open company....:rolleyes:

Generally not by 17lbs no - And thats what he needs to improve just to match Hurricanes previous, that might not even be enough.

ste2010 · 07-03-2014 06:07PM

premierstone wrote: »

Generally not by 17lbs no - And thats what he needs to improve just to match Hurricanes previous, that might not even be enough.

Your negating the fact he might run to a lower rating though which could be likely

DDC1990 · 07-03-2014 06:10PM

BBC have Bryan Cooper down as jockey for Our Conor.

Surely that's a mistake? It has to be Danny Mullins?

http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/horse-racing/25748331

BumperD · 07-03-2014 06:34PM

DDC1990 wrote: »

BBC have Bryan Cooper down as jockey for Our Conor.

Surely that's a mistake? It has to be Danny Mullins?

http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/horse-racing/25748331

Mistake.

RichieLawlor · 07-03-2014 06:46PM

mulbot wrote: »

"ruby kept enough up his sleeve to keep MTOY at bay" that adds more to my point,if he(CF) had gone quicker MTOY would have been beaten even further:p

Do you see why this is wrong? Or do you believe that if Ruby has went faster he would have won by further

hucklebuck · 07-03-2014 06:46PM

BumperD wrote: »

Mistake.

Damn it!!!!

premierstone · 07-03-2014 07:28PM

ste2010 wrote: »

Your negating the fact he might run to a lower rating though which could be likely

No its very possible but its equally possible that he or something else betters it so both scenarios pretty much cancel each other out.

mdwexford · 07-03-2014 07:56PM

mulbot wrote: »

"ruby kept enough up his sleeve to keep MTOY at bay" that adds more to my point,if he(CF) had gone quicker MTOY would have been beaten even further:p

You don't seem to understand.

MTOY would have got to CF regardless of how fast he went.
Ruby gave CF a breather so he would have something in reserve up the hill, if he had gone flat out MTOY would have coasted past him.

premierstone wrote: »

Generally not by 17lbs no - And thats what he needs to improve just to match Hurricanes previous, that might not even be enough.

He's 8 pounds below him now on official ratings and is still totally unexposed.
Racing Post ratings has him 4 pounds behind on their best RPR.
17 pounds is well within the realms of improvement from a top class novice to open company.

HF won't run to 175 on Tuesday anyway imo.

Mod edit: <snip>

Itziger · 07-03-2014 09:05PM

mdwexford wrote: »

You don't seem to understand.

MTOY would have got to CF regardless of how fast he went.
Ruby gave CF a breather so he would have something in reserve up the hill, if he had gone flat out MTOY would have coasted past him.

He's 8 pounds below him now on official ratings and is still totally unexposed.
Racing Post ratings has him 4 pounds behind on their best RPR.
17 pounds is well within the realms of improvement from a top class novice to open company.

HF won't run to 175 on Tuesday anyway imo.

Mod edit: <snip>

So, it was Ruby's fault basically!! :pac: :pac: :pac:

premierstone · 07-03-2014 09:10PM

Itziger wrote: »

So, it was Ruby's fault basically!! :pac: :pac: :pac:

No, it was one of the best rides ever given at the festival. No one else could have won on Champagne Fever, put Ruby on Jezki or MTOY in that race and you have a very different result.

mdwexford · 07-03-2014 09:14PM

Itziger wrote: »

So, it was Ruby's fault basically!! :pac: :pac: :pac:

Well I backed CF so I was happy he gave him such a good ride.

Gringo180 · 07-03-2014 09:32PM

hucklebuck wrote: »

Champagne Fever was a decent novice hurdler who doesn't have the speed of the top 5 in the Champion Hurdle betting.

Bit harsh that. I think you need stamina more than speed to win a champion hurdle.

faoile@n · 07-03-2014 10:36PM

Un De Sceaux positive on betfair and cut in a few places today.

Surely not :eek:

mulbot · 07-03-2014 10:44PM

mdwexford wrote: »

You don't seem to understand.

"MTOY would have got to CF regardless of how fast he went.
Ruby gave CF a breather so he would have something in reserve up the hill, if he had gone flat out MTOY would have coasted past him"

but he didn't get to him and they went fast- look at the sectional times,cf was on the gas big time,MTOY had his strong pace,simply wasn't good enough,and no reason to think different this time

Itziger · 07-03-2014 10:49PM

mulbot wrote: »

mdwexford wrote: »

You don't seem to understand.

"MTOY would have got to CF regardless of how fast he went.
Ruby gave CF a breather so he would have something in reserve up the hill, if he had gone flat out MTOY would have coasted past him"

but he didn't get to him and they went fast- look at the sectional times,cf was on the gas big time,MTOY had his strong pace,simply wasn't good enough,and no reason to think different this time

This.

I'll be amazed if he is in the first 2.

mulbot · 07-03-2014 10:51PM

Itziger wrote: »

mulbot wrote: »

This.

I'll be amazed if he is in the first 2.

yep,i think he's a great lay bet

mdwexford · 07-03-2014 10:52PM

mulbot wrote: »

but he didn't get to him and they went fast- look at the sectional times,cf was on the gas big time,MTOY had his strong pace,simply wasn't good enough,and no reason to think different this time

He led over the last.

He's a year older stronger faster better, he's a different horse to last year.
How do people not realise this.

Same as Our Conor is better this year and The New One is better.

mulbot · 07-03-2014 10:55PM

mdwexford wrote: »

He led over the last.

He's a year older stronger faster better, he's a different horse to last year.
How do people not realise this.

Same as Our Conor is better this year and The New One is better.

yes i understand that,bot Our Conor destroyed his field,The New One won nicely,MTOY didn't win against a horse who now chases!!

Johner · 07-03-2014 10:57PM

mulbot wrote: »

yes i understand that,bot Our Conor destroyed his field,The New One won nicely,MTOY didn't win against a horse who now chases!!

You can't compare different races like that.

mdwexford · 07-03-2014 11:00PM

mulbot wrote: »

yes i understand that,bot Our Conor destroyed his field,The New One won nicely,MTOY didn't win against a horse who now chases!!

Against much worse opposition.

Supreme was a stronger race.

mulbot · 07-03-2014 11:01PM

Johner wrote: »

You can't compare different races like that.

its not the races,the others have winning form there,MTOY doesn't,and seemed that he was slightly caught out trying to get up the hill

Johner · 07-03-2014 11:09PM

mulbot wrote: »

its not the races,the others have winning form there,MTOY doesn't,and seemed that he was slightly caught out trying to get up the hill

He has learned to settle better since then and is a year older/stronger and also the stronger pace will help him. I don't think you can write off any of the top 5 Champion Hurdle contenders. For me it's not a betting race, it's one to watch and enjoy and watch the best horse on the day come out on top.

2014 Champion Hurdle

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