2014 Champion Hurdle

faoile@n · 19-02-2014 10:35PM

Huntley wrote: »

Some rag like Grumeti or something will force the issue, TNO and Jezki will be ridden prominently to ensure that when the tempo subsides they can force it once more.

I would be very surprised if Grumeti makes the running he'll be ridden to place.

Plit Zig looks like the only pace setter to me with Jezki forcing it behind him.

jimjamcos · 19-02-2014 10:53PM

faoile@n wrote: »

I would be very surprised if Grumeti makes the running he'll be ridden to place.

Plit Zig looks like the only pace setter to me with Jezki forcing it behind him.

It wouldn't want to be much of a pace if he's setting it! He'd be lucky to get to the first hurdle in front!

Hulk Hands · 20-02-2014 12:05AM

faoile@n wrote: »

I would be very surprised if Grumeti makes the running he'll be ridden to place.

Plit Zig looks like the only pace setter to me with Jezki forcing it behind him.

Yeah and ptit Zig won't go unless it's bottomless. Unless JP has the balls to sacrifice Jezki to aid MTOY, I can't see where the pace will come from

hucklebuck · 20-02-2014 12:13AM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Yeah and ptit Zig won't go unless it's bottomless. Unless JP has the balls to sacrifice Jezki to aid MTOY, I can't see where the pace will come from

Not sure I can see any scenario Jezki can win it, if they rate Jezki they could do worse the supplement Cee Bee.

It's hard to see where the pace will come from if UDS is definitely not there, I wonder who NTD has in mind.

klairondavis · 20-02-2014 12:40AM

Looking at the entries and how they are likely to be ridden:

Annie Power: Can make it but very unlikely to run.

Grumeti: Usually held up or dropped in. Doubtful runner.

Hurricane Fly: Will be dropped in.

Jezki: Usually held up but could see a change in tactics for the Champion. Proved stamina in the Hattons Grace.

Melodic Rendezvous: Unlikely to run unless it comes up soft. Always dropped in or held up.

My Tent Or Yours: Will not be produced until the last flight like last year.

Our Conor: Can be ridden handily but very likely to take a lead.

Ptit Zig: Possible front runner but not a definite starter.

The New One: Best form seems to be when dropped in but may have to force his own pace against speedier rivals.

Thousand Stars: Confirmed front runner but very unlikely to set a frenzied gallop if he does run.

Un De Sceaux: Tearaway who could change the whole tactical complexion of the race if he did run but it won't happen unless something happens his stablemate.

It won't be run at a crawl or anything like that but I think it all points to The New One having to force the pace in order to make it more of a test of stamina. It's possible that Ptit Zig or Grumeti might take them along for a while but the main field might just ignore them because they're no hopers. I think Twiston Davies will have to be taking it up turning down the hill and looking to wind it up from there. Jezki is the fly in the ointment and there could be a bit of a JP curveball with his tactics.

Huntley · 20-02-2014 12:46AM

Anybody expecting a slowly run Champion Hurdle simply hasn't been watching racing long enough. As aidankkk said it is a unique contest in itself. There was no obvious pace in the race last year. At worst, a repeat of the moderate gallop set in 2011 (largely due to Overturn being ignored) will be the 'slowest' possibility.

Anybody getting caught up with Grumeti's participation can take note that he is a definite runner in the Champion Hurdle according to Alan King.

Hulk Hands · 20-02-2014 12:56AM

Would like to see a decent if not frenetic gallop for Our Conor's sake. Best case scenario is The New One taking it up from an early stage. Looking increasingly likely that there'll be 7 or so runners. Still would wait until the firms get competitive but each way players will have to be ready to pull the trigger at short notice

eljoker · 20-02-2014 06:52AM

Last year odds did drift on fancy horses a few days before compared to the ante post odds. Lads what way will they finish?
I'll go 1. OC 2. HF 3. MTOY

billy_beckham · 20-02-2014 09:38AM

Huntley wrote: »

I'm not sure which one of us should be banging our head off the wall billy. I take it you've got a head start on me based on the above though.

Actually rolling around the floor! Ludicrous statement, admit it and move on or enlighten the peasants??

faoile@n · 20-02-2014 10:48AM

Anyone who thinks Grumeti will front run simply hasn't been watching racing long enough.

Nobody is suggesting the race will be run at a crawl but I can't see who is going to set the searching gallop that you think will get Hurricane Fly beat.

Ptit Zig, The New One & Jezki will all be prominent but I can't see any of them cutting their own throat unless JP sacrifices Jezki.

shamdrog63 · 20-02-2014 11:05AM

Willie Mullins must have a plan to ensure a reasonable gallop.He,s the one with the multiple entries.Thousand Stars would presumably try and set steady gallop.

Huntley · 20-02-2014 12:47PM

faoile@n wrote: »

Anyone who thinks Grumeti will front run simply hasn't been watching racing long enough.

Nobody is suggesting the race will be run at a crawl but I can't see who is going to set the searching gallop that you think will get Hurricane Fly beat.

Ptit Zig, The New One & Jezki will all be prominent but I can't see any of them cutting their own throat unless JP sacrifices Jezki.

This is taking a downward curve and I've exceeded my quota. There was a suggestion that the Champion Hurdle will be a slow affair. It won't be.

Panrich · 20-02-2014 02:33PM

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

I really can't see how anybody could fancy Our Conor, considering the appalling record of Triumph Hurdle winners in the following year's Champion Hurdle. Even the great Kribensis couldn't do it.

Since they introduced the Fred Winter in 2005, the Triumph Hurdle is a different race and not the cavalry charge with a maximum field that it once was. The form of the race has improved out of all recognition and winners since have a very good record in the CH as a 5 year old:

2006 CH Penzance Fell
2007 CH Detroit City Fav 6th
2008 CH Katchit Winner
2009 CH Celestail Halo 2nd
2010 CH Zaynar 3rd
2011 CH Soaldatino NR
2012 CH Zarkandar 5th
2013 CH Countrywide Flame 3rd

Harry Angstrom · 20-02-2014 05:07PM

Panrich wrote: »

Since they introduced the Fred Winter in 2005, the Triumph Hurdle is a different race and not the cavalry charge with a maximum field that it once was. The form of the race has improved out of all recognition and winners since have a very good record in the CH as a 5 year old:

2006 CH Penzance Fell
2007 CH Detroit City Fav 6th
2008 CH Katchit Winner
2009 CH Celestail Halo 2nd
2010 CH Zaynar 3rd
2011 CH Soaldatino NR
2012 CH Zarkandar 5th
2013 CH Countrywide Flame 3rd

I agree with you. I actually look forward to the Triumph Hurdle these days. In the old days I'd have to take a few paracetamol before trying to figure it out, but I still think it is difficult enough for a previous year's juvenile to make a breakthrough against well-seasoned Champion Hurdle horses such as Hurricane Fly.

shamdrog63 · 20-02-2014 05:09PM

I think the appaling record of Triumph winners stat only relates to WINNING the CH.I,m sure there were a few triumph winners placed in the CH pre 2005.

Harry Angstrom · 20-02-2014 05:21PM

shamdrog63 wrote: »

I think the appaling record of Triumph winners stat only relates to WINNING the CH.I,m sure there were a few triumph winners placed in the CH pre 2005.

It's only the winners that count.

Panrich · 20-02-2014 05:48PM

shamdrog63 wrote: »

I think the appaling record of Triumph winners stat only relates to WINNING the CH.I,m sure there were a few triumph winners placed in the CH pre 2005.

Not so much. I just went back through the previous 11 years (10 runnings) and only 5 of the winners returned to contest the champion hurdle and the best of them was placed 5th (Mysilv). The others came 7th, 8th, 12th and 14th. The Triumph used to be a race that suited stayers because of it's relentless end to end gallop and testament to that is two of the 10 previous winners showed up as 5 year olds in the stayers.
The nature of the race has fundamentally changed since 2005 and the record since is exceptional for finding contenders (miles better than the supreme for instance).

Here a couple of stats for supporters of MTOY or Jezki re the supreme:

No winner of the supreme in the period (last 8 years) has placed in a champion hurdle and only 2 have turned up the following year in the CH.

Only ONE placed horse for the last 8 years in the Supreme has come back the following year and been placed (Binocular).

yaboya1 · 20-02-2014 06:48PM

Panrich wrote: »

Not so much. I just went back through the previous 11 years (10 runnings) and only 5 of the winners returned to contest the champion hurdle and the best of them was placed 5th (Mysilv). The others came 7th, 8th, 12th and 14th. The Triumph used to be a race that suited stayers because of it's relentless end to end gallop and testament to that is two of the 10 previous winners showed up as 5 year olds in the stayers.
The nature of the race has fundamentally changed since 2005 and the record since is exceptional for finding contenders (miles better than the supreme for instance).

Here a couple of stats for supporters of MTOY or Jezki re the supreme:

No winner of the supreme in the period (last 8 years) has placed in a champion hurdle and only 2 have turned up the following year in the CH.

Only ONE placed horse for the last 8 years in the Supreme has come back the following year and been placed (Binocular).

Brave Inca won the Supreme in 2004 and was 3rd in the Champion in 2005 (Is this the reason you only went back 8 years, as it didn't suit your stat?)
Sublimity was 4th in the Supreme and won the Champion the next year.
The Triumph normally does suit stayers, but horses don't normally win by half the track like Our Conor, so I don't think that sterotype can be applied to him.

Panrich · 21-02-2014 08:40AM

yaboya1 wrote: »

Brave Inca won the Supreme in 2004 and was 3rd in the Champion in 2005 (Is this the reason you only went back 8 years, as it didn't suit your stat?)
Sublimity was 4th in the Supreme and won the Champion the next year.
The Triumph normally does suit stayers, but horses don't normally win by half the track like Our Conor, so I don't think that sterotype can be applied to him.

My post was in answer to a previous one and you cannot take it oit of context.

My original point was that the triumph is no longer a race for potential stayers.

I went back 8 years because that was when the Fred Winter was first run.

You have to read both posts to see that.

hucklebuck · 21-02-2014 09:21AM

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

It's only the winners that count.

I cant agree, look at the list. Take out Katchit(Winner), Soldatino(NR) and Penzance (F), Zaynar, Celestial and Zarkandar all ended up running 2m4 plus, Detroit City was a smashing horse, iirc he was beaten out of sight after the champion and died in the race after.

For me Our Conor is better than all of these Triumph winners and has proven even at a young 5 he can race competitively with HF

Said it before, stats are for twats in bowler hats.

yaboya1 · 21-02-2014 10:42AM

Panrich wrote: »

My post was in answer to a previous one and you cannot take it oit of context.

My original point was that the triumph is no longer a race for potential stayers.

I went back 8 years because that was when the Fred Winter was first run.

You have to read both posts to see that.

I still believe the Triumph is a race for stayers. 2m1f on the stamina sapping new track takes a lot of getting for a 4yo. The finish of Countrywide Flame's win in 2012 demonstrating that point.

However, Our Conor didn't win the race in the usual way. He left the field for dead from two out in an awesome display of speed & stamina, the perfect combination for a potential Champion Hurdler. I agree that the average winner of the Triumph rarely possesses enough speed for the Champion. But Our Conor was not an average winner. He was a fair few levels above that.

Panrich · 21-02-2014 10:49AM

yaboya1 wrote: »

I still believe the Triumph is a race for stayers. 2m1f on the stamina sapping new track takes a lot of getting for a 4yo. The finish of Countrywide Flame's win in 2012 demonstrating that point.

However, Our Conor didn't win the race in the usual way. He left the field for dead from two out in an awesome display of speed & stamina, the perfect combination for a potential Champion Hurdler. I agree that the average winner of the Triumph rarely possesses enough speed for the Champion. But Our Conor was not an average winner. He was a fair few levels above that.

And that just adds to the point. If half of the winners since the race changed have been good enough to win or place in the following years champion hurdle, then it is a big plus for Our Conor, who so far looks a cut above previous winners.

carpothepunk · 21-02-2014 01:21PM

Some interesting comments last night from PWM in Portarlington.

"Champion Hurdle - PWM, last year said he would bare his arse on the bridge in Carlow if The Fly was beat but would not make the same offer saysThe Fly has to defy the age stat to win, says he has to play on there home turf which is always a challenge he thinks and hopes The Fly can win. Says if MTOY or Jezki couldnt beat Champagne Fever over 2m in Chelt that they have no chance against The Fly. Dessie - very happy with Our Conor, says was very straight fitness wise lto but can still come on from the race. Says OC the first horse in years to be last off the bridle in Leop v The Fly. I think he feels Cheltenham will suit him. Jumps, stays, turn of foot - very hopeful.. Cooper says he felt that OC was the horse to take from Leop. Says that given choice of riding OC or Fly he would pick OC.
Elliott said that The Fly has Our Conor to beat - thinks between them.
Fahey says he thinks OC will win. Almost universally The New One was considered the best UK contender. All agreed fascinating race and one to savour."

hucklebuck · 21-02-2014 07:01PM

Piece from Ruby yesterday, still no decision on UDS:

http://www.cheltenhamfestival.net/category/cheltenham-festival-news/ruby-walshs-cheltenham-countdown-201402210001/

jimjamcos · 21-02-2014 07:47PM

hucklebuck wrote: »

Piece from Ruby yesterday, still no decision on UDS:

http://www.cheltenhamfestival.net/category/cheltenham-festival-news/ruby-walshs-cheltenham-countdown-201402210001/

There has definitely been a decision made, lad. Ruby's only keeping that tiny window open incase anything happens HF. Judging by the comments from Mullins at his open day on changing the feed for Faugheen, he consults Ruby on absolutely everything, no matter how small.

We'll just have to wait till next year to catch the beast UDS again. Just a pity the cat's well and truly out of the bag though!

jimjamcos · 21-02-2014 07:47PM

hucklebuck wrote: »

Piece from Ruby yesterday, still no decision on UDS:

http://www.cheltenhamfestival.net/category/cheltenham-festival-news/ruby-walshs-cheltenham-countdown-201402210001/

There has definitely been a decision made, lad. Ruby's only keeping that tiny window open incase anything happens HF. Judging by the comments from Mullins at his open day on changing the feed for Faugheen, he consults Ruby on absolutely everything, no matter how small.

We'll just have to wait till next year to catch the beast UDS again. Just a pity that the cat's well and truly out of the bag though!

hucklebuck · 22-02-2014 09:21AM

jimjamcos wrote: »

There has definitely been a decision made, lad. Ruby's only keeping that tiny window open incase anything happens HF. Judging by the comments from Mullins at his open day on changing the feed for Faugheen, he consults Ruby on absolutely everything, no matter how small.

We'll just have to wait till next year to catch the beast UDS again. Just a pity that the cat's well and truly out of the bag though!

Havent had a chance to catch up on the open day yet, thats a shame.

I wonder if they wont run him in Punchestown because HF will be there :rolleyes:

hucklebuck · 22-02-2014 09:22AM

Ladbrokes Mobile are doing a £25 money back offer on the Champion, money back if HF finishes 1st or 2nd

http://www.racingtips.com/category/promotions/ladbrokes-launch-a-sensational-money-back-special-on-hurricane-fly-in-this-years-champion-hurdle-201402220001/

jimjamcos · 22-02-2014 10:49AM

hucklebuck wrote: »

Havent had a chance to catch up on the open day yet, thats a shame.

I wonder if they wont run him in Punchestown because HF will be there :rolleyes:

Can't see them running him at Punchestown unless HF totally bombs at Cheltenham which is highly unlikely. Could run him in the Aintree Hurdle but 2m4 and decent ground for first time would be madness IMO given their current reservations about giving him a hard time. I think it's odds on we wont see him properly tested till next season. They might find him another Micky Mouse race just to keep the owners on side and finish off the season but little else I'd guess.

Backstreet Moyes · 22-02-2014 11:13AM

hucklebuck wrote: »

Ladbrokes Mobile are doing a £25 money back offer on the Champion, money back if HF finishes 1st or 2nd

http://www.racingtips.com/category/promotions/ladbrokes-launch-a-sensational-money-back-special-on-hurricane-fly-in-this-years-champion-hurdle-201402220001/

Is this new accounts i have an account with Lads but never used mobile. Looks a fairly good offer for people taking on HF.

2014 Champion Hurdle

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