2014 Champion Hurdle

Huntley · 19-02-2014 02:46AM

There is no argument you asked me to explain my angle. Only I'm in the midst of doing the analysis it is fresh in my mind. I won't be changing my mind based on the analysis your presenting so you'd be correct there. At the very least Hurricane Fly isn't suited by a strong pace around Cheltenham. That should be blatantly obvious to anybody who has the capabilities to watch the last two runnings. My view that he is beatable under a strong, consistent tempo isn't a theory by the way. The fact it happened once is enough to give it more credence than that.

mdwexford wrote: »

Just watched last year again for the first time since the day.

I thought HF was under more pressure and further back than he actually was, he was pushed along for a couple of strides and then he was right back on the bridle and he had them stone dead two out.

Hurricane Fly was positioned upside Grandouet at the start and the intention for him to be ridden off the pace. By the time they turned down the back straight he is about two lengths down. There was no visible distress signals at that stage but just by looking at the intention of the jockey, and what happened, the horse is stretched/out of his comfort zone. He is going as fast as he can to stay with them, the fact he makes a mistake at the fourth is telling in that regard.

Harry Angstrom · 19-02-2014 02:50AM

Hurricane Fly wasn't right when he got beaten two years ago. At his best, he would have picked up the likes of Rock On Ruby, Overturn and carried them. Horses ain't machines.

mdwexford · 19-02-2014 02:55AM

That is all true.

He looked in trouble most between flights 3 and 4 just before the mistake, looked to be struggling to go the gallop.
I just had it in my head he was being pushed from that point on and wasnt as easy a winner as he was in the end.

By the time Grandouet falls hes right back on the tail of the leading group and looking dangerous and two out theres only one winner.

Huntley · 19-02-2014 03:08AM

Due to the nature of how the race fell apart he would have been value for a length or two more had he not got to the front so soon.

To be positioned beside Grandouet and to lose two lengths on him and the leaders within half a mile is damning though. Maybe he was sick for that part of the race.

A fascinating race this year you could conceivably make a case for any of the main contenders under certain conditions.

Hulk Hands · 19-02-2014 03:19AM

Huntley wrote: »

To be positioned beside Grandouet and to lose two lengths on him and the leaders within half a mile is damning though. Maybe he was sick for that part of the race.

He starts the race beside Grandouet, and by 1.57 he is 2 lenghts down after about 2 hurdles. Are you suggesting he was failing to keep up, up to this stage in the race? Even though he's taking a pull out of ruby up the hill? From there he remains 2l off grandouet until a poor jump at the 4th gets him a further length or two behind. Ruby pushes him a bit and he picks them up with relative ease, taking before the pace even collapses he's again taking a pull out of ruby

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlqZJkwWNHs

eljoker · 19-02-2014 08:24AM

Lads the majority of us here are either going on HF or OC so just do the reverse fc and roar your head off for another Irish winner

RichieLawlor · 19-02-2014 08:52AM

eljoker wrote: »

Lads the majority of us here are either going on HF or OC so just do the reverse fc and roar your head off for another Irish winner

This makes no sense because TNO is the champion in waiting

ste2010 · 19-02-2014 09:46AM

Huntley wrote: »

....Maybe he was sick for that part of the race..

That is comedy gold...like something my 3 year old nephew would say

Nulty · 19-02-2014 10:47AM

klairondavis wrote: »

I'm not sure if the race will be run to suit The New One. I don't think he jumps well enough if he has to cut out his own running which seems likely.

I don't think he missed one at last year's festival. It was a slow pace but he jumps around Cheltenham well as far as I can tell

klairondavis · 19-02-2014 11:00AM

Nulty wrote: »

I don't think he missed one at last year's festival. It was a slow pace but he jumps around Cheltenham well as far as I can tell

It's a different story if he has to force his own pace. He will have to ping every single flight. He wasn't foot perfect at Kempton or in the Bula. If that happens in the Champion the field will take lengths out of him and he won't get back into it.

19-02-2014 11:08AM

I'm obviously not keeping up with the news / entries.

Has this changed?

19-02-2014 11:32AM

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm obviously not keeping up with the news / entries.

Has this changed?

Just had a look at the entries, obviously it has.

Mystifying IMHO.

klairondavis · 19-02-2014 11:39AM

Twiston Davies admitted a few weeks afterwards that he had no horse in his yard that would be capable of taking them along for long enough so he abandoned the idea.

mjp · 19-02-2014 11:42AM

Going over for champion hurdle day and hoping do my betting online. Wondering what phone coverage is like at the course of whether there's wi if available there. Know it can be a nightmare at big events like this to get phone coverage

Huntley · 19-02-2014 11:46AM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

He starts the race beside Grandouet, and by 1.57 he is 2 lenghts down after about 2 hurdles. Are you suggesting he was failing to keep up, up to this stage in the race? Even though he's taking a pull out of ruby up the hill? From there he remains 2l off grandouet until a poor jump at the 4th gets him a further length or two behind. Ruby pushes him a bit and he picks them up with relative ease, taking before the pace even collapses he's again taking a pull out of ruby

There is a reason why Hurricane Fly loses two lengths in the first half a mile. There is a reason why he starts to lose more ground within the next two furlongs. There is a reason why he makes a mistake at the fourth hurdle. There is a reason why the horse isn't in the position that the jockey intended him to be. Maybe the reasoning is that they were going a stride quicker than he was comfortable with or maybe he was sick for that part of the race. Who knows.

Re: TNO, I saw an article the other day where STD suggested that the slower the pace the more it will suit TNO. A significant change in mentality since Christmas and all part of the game of cat and mouse.

RichieLawlor · 19-02-2014 11:48AM

The New One won't be forcing the pace to let MTOY pick him off again, no chance, and MTOY won't want a slowly run race. You'll see one of the rags tear off in front, JP slipping a few bob in someone's pocket

RichieLawlor · 19-02-2014 11:51AM

Huntley wrote: »

There is a reason why Hurricane Fly loses two lengths in the first half a mile. There is a reason why he starts to lose more ground within the next two furlongs. There is a reason why he makes a mistake at the fourth hurdle. There is a reason why the horse isn't in the position that the jockey intended him to be. Maybe the reasoning is that they were going a stride quicker than he was comfortable with or maybe he was sick for that part of the race. Who knows.

Re: TNO, I saw an article the other day where STD suggested that the slower the pace the more it will suit TNO. A significant change in mentality since Christmas and all part of the game of cat and mouse.

On this actually, Cattermole is the worst commentator in the business, that clip above is evidence, I think it was simon holt on the channel 4 coverage who said, 'Hurricane Fly hasn't really travelled but he's in touch now and they may stop in the closing stages' making reference to the fact that he had been taken off his feet for a period

Colonel Sanders · 19-02-2014 11:55AM

RichieLawlor wrote: »

On this actually, Cattermole is the worst commentator in the business, that clip above is evidence, I think it was simon holt on the channel 4 coverage who said, 'Hurricane Fly hasn't really travelled but he's in touch now and they may stop in the closing stages' making reference to the fact that he had been taken off his feet for a period

Look at the 2009 RSA hurdle (or whatever it was called)

He called that Mikael D hadn't found anything after they jumped the 2nd last.....

RichieLawlor · 19-02-2014 11:58AM

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Look at the 2009 RSA hurdle (or whatever it was called)

He called that Mikael D hadn't found anything after they jumped the 2nd last.....

Lol remember that after Ruby snatched him up between horses and he came off the bend still tanking

faoile@n · 19-02-2014 12:32PM

Bill Esdaile @BillEsdaile · 11m

In De Sceaux is a young talent I'd like to look after - he could be the future

Not been properly tested in grade one company yet

Un De Sceaux gallops on his own at home. Young horse who is the future. Looks well today but could look to next year rather than Cheltenham

Lucky I have a bunch of owners who are lucky to let me make the decisions

Looks like he'll be saved for next year

chopperp · 19-02-2014 12:35PM

Walsh: We’re not sure Un De Sceaux is up to it Tuesday 18February 2014

By Ruby Walsh

Un De Sceaux:

I saw him this morning at Willie Mullins’s and heobviously wasn’t doing very much after his run at the weekend when he won theRed Mills Trial Hurdle at Gowran Park.

He’s a horse that is very hard on himself, and is a horsethat is maturing all the time mentally.

I just don’t know whether Willie feels that the ChampionHurdle is right for him right now.

Last year he was very highly strung, and the ChampionHurdle is the Champion Hurdle and a horse has to be physically, and mentally,right for it.

The whole parade, the start of the Champion Hurdle with50,000 people in the Grandstand – it is a test of a horse mentally and we’rejust not sure he’s up to the task.

Sent from my BlackBerry® wireless handheld

carpothepunk · 19-02-2014 12:58PM

RichieLawlor wrote: »

The New One won't be forcing the pace to let MTOY pick him off again, no chance, and MTOY won't want a slowly run race. You'll see one of the rags tear off in front, JP slipping a few bob in someone's pocket

There'll not be a rag in the race.

RichieLawlor · 19-02-2014 01:02PM

carpothepunk wrote: »

There'll not be a rag in the race.

I'm including Jezki in that, make the pace for MTOY. They did make a comment after the Irish champion that Jeski might be be better making it that stalking it

NaiveMelodies · 19-02-2014 01:19PM

It's been alluded to a couple of times now by AP that there will be a change a tactics for Jezki.
Hard to see him set a blistering pace though.

carpothepunk · 19-02-2014 01:33PM

Our Conor will either make it, or stalk the pacemaker, IMO.

klairondavis · 19-02-2014 01:39PM

I can't see him making it but I could see similar tactics to last year for him. They will have to try to keep it as uncomplicated as possible for Mullins.

billy_beckham · 19-02-2014 07:46PM

maybe he was sick for that part of the race

ste2010 wrote: »

That is comedy gold...like something my 3 year old nephew would say

Some statement alright......sick for part of a race. Trapped wind maybe, and blew it out jumping a hurdle which caused Grandoeut to fall?? Combination of loudness and odour....:)

Huntley · 19-02-2014 08:27PM

I'm not sure which one of us should be banging our head off the wall billy. I take it you've got a head start on me based on the above though.

pugw · 19-02-2014 08:46PM

What do ye make of the new one?? Was really impressed with his first two runs this year but wouldn't like to be depending on him he let me down for a lovely treble last year when at fishers cross collared him on the run in! Got caught by MTOY then at kempton dis year!! Very hard to compare like for like with himself and our connor!!

RichieLawlor · 19-02-2014 08:59PM

2014 Champion Hurdle

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