2014 Champion Hurdle

yaboya1 · 15-02-2014 08:59PM

Barry Geraghty will always have decent rides and pick up good spares where Henderson hasn't got anything. Also a great jockey around Cheltenham. Ruby will be hard to beat though.

kiers47 · 15-02-2014 09:03PM

With Venetias stable in scintillating form and her sure to pick up a couple of the handicaps there would probably be worse bets than Aidan Coleman at 66/1.

Couldn't see past ruby really but surely there are better 4/7 shots to be found on a normal week

mulbot · 15-02-2014 09:31PM

kiers47 wrote: »

With Venetias stable in scintillating form and her sure to pick up a couple of the handicaps there would probably be worse bets than Aidan Coleman at 66/1.

Couldn't see past ruby really but surely there are better 4/7 shots to be found on a normal week

ah yea its ruby's really,coleman looks good,should be winning the byrne group plate on niceonefrankie

RichieLawlor · 15-02-2014 10:10PM

Just caught up on the racing, I'm my opinion that thing that won at Gowran today should be 50/1 to make all in a champion hurdle

Crash Bang Wall · 15-02-2014 10:44PM

Thanks lads....much appreciated

Think I will go with my original choices

Now to find winners for the Golf Majors, Darts, F1, GAA, Premier League, FA Cup, World Cup and a few others

Cheers again

jimjamcos · 15-02-2014 11:55PM

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Just caught up on the racing, I'm my opinion that thing that won at Gowran today should be 50/1 to make all in a champion hurdle

That's some observation but is it based on any real evidence as of yet? Have absolutely no problem with people cribbing his current price, given he's beaten little, but fail to understand how people can confidently predict the ceiling of his potential. Fact is, nobody knows if he's good enough or not. What we do know is that he's beaten little but done so in incredible style and, as acknowledged by Ruby, has the ability to set a relentless gallop without needing a breather.

Odds are probably against him being a superstar good enough to lead a CH from start to finish, but until he faces a proper test, predictions one way or the other are pointless. Whether a backer or a layer, it's an educated guess at best at this stage.

Hulk Hands · 16-02-2014 12:51AM

All odds are an educated guess. A 50/1 shot will still win 2% of the time. I dont think anyone is saying he's limited or can't win, it's just people giving a more realistic probability that an untested and very lightly raced horse will make all against potentially the strongest CH field of all time. So while we cant definitively say he has no chance, we can crab the probability of winning that the poorhouse prices of 8/1-12/1 suggest

Harry Angstrom · 16-02-2014 01:03AM

Somehow I doubt Ruby will have any sleepless nights about having to pick Hurricane Fly over Un De Sceaux for the Champion.

hucklebuck · 16-02-2014 09:16AM

ste2010 wrote: »

As Duncan bannatyne says "I'm out"

.. of the closet

hucklebuck · 16-02-2014 09:21AM

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Just caught up on the racing, I'm my opinion that thing that won at Gowran today should be 50/1 to make all in a champion hurdle

How much will you lay me at that price?

ste2010 · 16-02-2014 09:36AM

hucklebuck wrote: »

.. of the closet

..Of your mams house as your dad has finally left to go to work...playtime

hucklebuck · 16-02-2014 10:14AM

ste2010 wrote: »

..Of your mams house as your dad has finally left to go to work...playtime

How did you know my ma was a tranny, you are one lucky gay

RichieLawlor · 16-02-2014 11:53AM

hucklebuck wrote: »

How much will you lay me at that price?

Don't be so stupid, because I think a horse should be a certain price doesn't mean I will lay him at that price when I don't have to.

UDS is a pacemaker if he turns up at all

mulbot · 16-02-2014 12:37PM

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Don't be so stupid, because I think a horse should be a certain price doesn't mean I will lay him at that price when I don't have to.

UDS is a pacemaker if he turns up at all

pacemaker for who?

jimjamcos · 16-02-2014 12:40PM

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Don't be so stupid, because I think a horse should be a certain price doesn't mean I will lay him at that price when I don't have to.

UDS is a pacemaker if he turns up at all

Whether that proves to be the case or not, you have zero proof at this stage. Winning distances, visual impressions, Ruby's comments all suggest he's a an unknown and very likely a future Gr1 winner.

"What I love about this horse is the way he behaves in the middle of a race. He just sustains a relentless gallop and then is able to keep it up it right to the line. Truth to tell, I just don't have a clue as to how good he is."

"How far can he go? I just don't know. But here's the thing, I'm of the opinion Un De Sceaux will manage to stay any trip."

"If he ran in a Champion Hurdle he wouldn't be the type to be giving fifteen (lengths) to out of the gate."

You seem to know more about the horse than his jockey which is quite an achievement. I'm pretty confident UDS will prove much, much more than a pacesetter and comprehensively prove you wrong.

RichieLawlor · 16-02-2014 12:53PM

mulbot wrote: »

pacemaker for who?

He won't run, but either way he would be swamped by most if not all the top 4.

jimjamcos wrote: »

Whether that proves to be the case or not, you have zero proof at this stage. Winning distances, visual impressions, Ruby's comments all suggest he's a an unknown and very likely a future Gr1 winner.

You seem to know more about the horse than his jockey which is quite an achievement. I'm pretty confident UDS will prove much, much more than a pacesetter and comprehensively prove you wrong.

Lol, what do you expect Ruby to say. Uh actually he's not very good, he just beats trees'

mulbot · 16-02-2014 12:58PM

he wont run once HF stays in the race-and if he did run HF wud end up a badly beaten horse,so wud MTOY

jimjamcos · 16-02-2014 01:04PM

RichieLawlor wrote: »

He won't run, but either way he would be swamped by most if not all the top 4.

Lol, what do you expect Ruby to say. Uh actually he's not very good, he just beats trees'

Well seeing as it'd be in Ruby's interests to play down merits of horse in this case and not have him running in CH, talking about him positively regarding CH is hardly insignificant. Anyway, I always find Ruby (like his aul buck) fairly honest in his assessment of Willies's horses (anyone who's watched recent RUK report will acknowledge this). It's just when it comes to horses plans that he isn't forthcoming.

jimjamcos · 16-02-2014 01:05PM

mulbot wrote: »

he wont run once HF stays in the race-and if he did run HF wud end up a badly beaten horse,so wud MTOY

You're neglecting a key stakeholder. Owners.

RichieLawlor · 16-02-2014 01:19PM

Make no mistake, Mullins, and Ruby for that matter doesn't care about sentiment, if he knew that UDS was better than Hurricane Fly then do you think he would take a chance on a 10 years old who isn't as good as one in his yard.

Don't be so ridiculous

jimjamcos · 16-02-2014 01:33PM

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Make no mistake, Mullins, and Ruby for that matter doesn't care about sentiment, if he knew that UDS was better than Hurricane Fly then do you think he would take a chance on a 10 years old who isn't as good as one in his yard.

Don't be so ridiculous

How many Gr1's has Ruby won on Hurricane Fly? 14 or something like that? He's never going to get off him for an unproven horse. That doesn't necessarily mean that the unproven horse cannot threaten the Champion or be the beating of him pace-wise.

If Mullins runs HF and/or UDS, AP, it's going to be a Kauto/Denman situation for Ruby. It'd be a straight-forward decision like it was between the Nicholls horses, but it'd be one he'd rather not have to make.

rossom · 16-02-2014 01:42PM

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Make no mistake, Mullins, and Ruby for that matter doesn't care about sentiment, if he knew that UDS was better than Hurricane Fly then do you think he would take a chance on a 10 years old who isn't as good as one in his yard.

Don't be so ridiculous

I'd have to disagree with you about this Richie.

Even if the whole yard think that UDS is a better horse than HF, (not suggesting that for a second) no way Ruby gets off a two time CH winner and defending champion to ride a horse who is not proven at Grade 1 level and has yet to race outside of Ireland regardless if he thinks UDS could be the greatest hurdler of all time.

RichieLawlor · 16-02-2014 02:02PM

rossom wrote: »

I'd have to disagree with you about this Richie.

Even if the whole yard think that UDS is a better horse than HF, (not suggesting that for a second) no way Ruby gets off a two time CH winner and defending champion to ride a horse who is not proven at Grade 1 level and has yet to race outside of Ireland regardless if he thinks UDS could be the greatest hurdler of all time.

If Ruby think UDS will win, that's who he will ride. Sentiment doesn't come into it. You really think he would let some other jockey ride the champion hurdle winner while he keeps faith with HF

nobody told me · 16-02-2014 02:14PM

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Make no mistake, Mullins, and Ruby for that matter doesn't care about sentiment, if he knew that UDS was better than Hurricane Fly then do you think he would take a chance on a 10 years old who isn't as good as one in his yard.

Don't be so ridiculous

Horse****.

ft9 · 16-02-2014 02:17PM

He won't even run in the CH, let alone win it.

jimjamcos · 16-02-2014 02:20PM

ft9 wrote: »

He won't even run in the CH, let alone win it.

Another guess.

mr.jingle · 16-02-2014 02:25PM

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Make no mistake, Mullins, and Ruby for that matter doesn't care about sentiment,

There very sentimental with Quevega could have taken a chance on a World Hurdle in her prime instead of average Mares Hurdles

ft9 · 16-02-2014 02:25PM

We'll see

mulbot · 16-02-2014 02:45PM

jimjamcos wrote: »

You're neglecting a key stakeholder. Owners.

well the owners or at least the smaller owner)dont have the last word with mullins,

mulbot · 16-02-2014 02:50PM

mr.jingle wrote: »

There very sentimental with Quevega could have taken a chance on a World Hurdle in her prime instead of average Mares Hurdles

more like they knew she more than likely wud've been beaten by big bucks,had a harder race and anyway more than likely ruby had a say in this too

2014 Champion Hurdle

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