The Golf Tips Thread

bobwilliams · 12-02-2014 12:21am

They say Riviera suits a fader off the tee more than pretty much any course in the states.
There's only 3 golfers I can think of that can't hit a draw...Monty,Kaymer and John Rollins.
With that in mind I'm going the whole hog with Rollins,just small bets OR 150/1 6 places.1st RL 125/1 5 places and might add top 20 finish when they price up in PP

redzerdrog · 12-02-2014 12:24am

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

I know the lads here on betfair forum put up his tips and they are done by the Wednesday morning too. Just click on Golf and s palmer picks

http://community.betfair.com/go/forum/popupExtra?output_method=iframe

cheers i will keep an eye out for it, I generally only look at tipsters to see what angle they are taking on a particular event and if it is something I hadnt previously considered and they make a decent argument for it I might follow suit

Saying that I don't particularly rate Palmer, I wonder is there anywhere that tracks his record each year to see just how successful he is?

The_Kew_Tour · 12-02-2014 12:34am

redzerdrog wrote: »

cheers i will keep an eye out for it, I generally only look at tipsters to see what angle they are taking on a particular event and if it is something I hadnt previously considered and they make a decent argument for it I might follow suit

Saying that I don't particularly rate Palmer, I wonder is there anywhere that tracks his record each year to see just how successful he is?

Im the same as yourself. 90% would be my own. I do enjoy reading few lads like Ben Cohley in Sporting Life. Sometimes they pick on something that I might have missed. If im in situation where im undecided on 2 players I will pick the 1 where couple of tipsters choose that player. Otherwise its my own all the way.

I dont mind Palmer. Dont think I really ever took much advice from him though.

The main problem we all know is that once he picks a players prices tumble straight away. He picks 33/1 shot its into 28/25's, he picks a 66/1 shot you be lucky to get 50's that morning. That's why I tend to pick by Tuesday now. Value on few players will be gone by Wednesday because of Palmer and Co.

Thats why when you see their profits(racing post) e.g 250+ points for the year they are misguided, because the ordinary punter who selects his tips wont get price selected and that profit can end up being at least 20% less then advised.

bobwilliams · 12-02-2014 12:51am

I only ever check the RP just to check they(hopefully) havn't picked the same as me.

One of the tipsters on the pga tour usually picks the winner and as they're all over in the states they can give info out like the golfer may have played college golf close to the course etc.
I always say it but you can do all the research in the world but if the player doesn't put well on a given week they're not winning.....end of.

Nuri Sahin · 12-02-2014 8:31am

Nuri Sahin wrote: »

Northern Trust Open:

1) Dustin Johnson @ 14/1
2) Jordan Speith @ 20/1
3) Graham DeLaet @ 22/1
4) Hideki Matsuyama @ 33/1

Sticking with the two from last week. Speith I'll continue to back like I did Stenson for the early part of last season. Just needs to stop imploding on Saturday is all!

Trying to narrow down two more from Olesen, DeLaet, Simpson and Matsuyama as well.

Added DeLaet @ 22 and Matsuyama @ 33. Favourite-ish heavy this week, but sure, long shots have been duds for me recently and this is one tourney/course I'd like to crack (finally) anyway. I'll probably regret not backing my Bible boy come Sunday!

ledgebag1 · 12-02-2014 11:57am

ah sure it is a lottery

Nuri Sahin · 12-02-2014 2:06pm

Just on the topic of the more publicised tipsters and what not. I read up on tourneys previews on Monday evening for the most part, be it from a general point of view like on PGA.com or a betting point of view, it can really help with tourneys or courses you or I know little to nowt about when selecting bets for that given week. Also, occasionally you do find a tip that you'd never consider and you tail said tipster if they make a convincing argument.

In saying that, as some have probably noticed, I have my favourites. Last year I was backing Stenson well before he went into overdrive during the Fed Ex Cup Playoffs. Before that it was Simpson (Bible Boy) for a couple of years. This year looks like Speith, this may well change during the year. So there's about a dozen names that are always in my thinking and then I pick one or two outside of that dependent on the course, course form and current form entirely.

If people are following tipsters entirely and having success, fair play. I don't think golf is a complicated sport to bet on so the need to do that for me I wouldn't bother with, but like anything that element of luck is needed. Heck, so far this season is perfect example so far with 4 runner places and a couple of third/fourth finishes in a 5 week spell. Way the cookie crumbles sometimes. Anyway, I usually kick on in the summer onwards, so I'm not stressed, if a little miffed initially

manafana · 12-02-2014 2:40pm

My Northern Trust Open picks.

Stand out for me this week:

Matt Kuchar 28/1 paddy power – Lead after 1st round last year and as a masters course an then this sort of test going suit. Being in some good shape of late with plenty their about performances.

and the value call:

Joost Luiten 130 (betfair) 20 place – Comes from the European tour to play this event for first time. Irons are strong and can be one of best putters around if taking to conditions.

The_Kew_Tour · 12-02-2014 3:47pm

Just had quick run around the course at Riviera online. It really is setup for faders x 10

This gives a hole by hole guide from the course site itself
http://www.therivieracountryclub.com/club/scripts/custom/custom.asp?NS=PG&PAGECFG=COURSETOUR&DN=COURSETOUR

Just few details here.
http://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/northern-trust-open/course.html

http://www.northerntrustopen.com/tournament/course

----

On that note then I think Harris English comes into the frame for this. Beautiful fader of the ball and looking at his shot tracker where he really eases the ball into the greeen I expect him to go well. Took 33 ew.

redzerdrog · 12-02-2014 7:55pm

I am also very much a creature of habit and have my favourites who I back and I also have those I rarely if ever back. I got lucky last year in a way that two of the golfers I backed regularly won twice each when I was on, Dustin Johnson and Joost Luiten, another regular I backed was Kuchar. Then on the other end of the scale I have noticed I very rarely backed Sergio, this wasnt a conscience decision more to do with the fact he I feel he is underpriced most weeks. I am also finding it hard to back the likes of DeLaet lately as previously backing him at triple figures he is now regularly in 20s

bradlente · 12-02-2014 8:38pm

Maybe if De Laet has an awful weekend his odds will drop off again.Has been really competitively priced the last few weeks but there's no shine on his odds at all this week.Great run of form but not touching that price.

Northern Trust:
Haas 31
English 34
Stadler 81
Na 71
Baddeley 151
1st round leader Byrd 201

Africa:
Van Zyl 23
Forsyth 110
Orum Madsen 36
1st round leader Tjarrt Van Der Walt 67.Missed a good outright price on him yesterday so making do with ok 1st round odds.All e/w's

redzerdrog · 12-02-2014 9:52pm

bradlente wrote: »

Maybe if De Laet has an awful weekend his odds will drop off again.Has been really competitively priced the last few weeks but there's no shine on his odds at all this week.Great run of form but not touching that price.

Northern Trust:
Haas 31
English 34
Stadler 81
Na 71
Baddeley 151
1st round leader Byrd 201

Africa:
Van Zyl 23
Forsyth 110
Orum Madsen 36
1st round leader Tjarrt Van Der Walt 67.Missed a good outright price on him yesterday so making do with ok 1st round odds.All e/w's

Madsen was the other i was trying to get a price on was looking for 40.0 but didnt get matched so trying for 38.0

manafana · 12-02-2014 10:24pm

I love the horses for courses type players who often open a nice price before the smart money pushes them in.

My African Open Picks here:

two most confident choices,

Gregory Bourdy 18/1 various- Starting get over his cycling injury and was a threat last week in Joburg for a while. Runner up here last year so likes the test of this course. He putted poorly last year so should have really won and has won before in South Africa. At nearly twice the price of Aiken he looks over priced here.

Adilson De Silva 85 + Betfair (16 place) – Sets standard for outsiders with his straight driving and his very good GIR here. He has been thereabouts of late and could well push on this week to threaten.

abarkie · 12-02-2014 11:00pm

Hi

Africa Open

Emiliano Grillo

Matthew Baldwin

Northern Trust

Bill Haas

K J Choi

Hoping for the best

Good luck everyone

Johnny86 · 13-02-2014 12:30am

Doing doubles of Top 10's in each tournament (9x stake in total)

Northern Trust
Ryan Moore 11/4
V Dubuisson 6/1
W MacKenzie 8/1

Africa Open
Walters 10/3
Madsen 3/1
Tullo 13/2

jjll · 13-02-2014 12:38am

Web dot com

sung joon park 22s pp not missed cut in 37..... 97 in world far too good for this lot

bobwilliams · 13-02-2014 12:40am

I may eat humble pie come Sunday night but I think 11/1 outright for Dustin Johnson is probably the scabbiest price I've seen in a long while for a pga event.

No matter what you say about course form etc he still has 150 odd lads to beat,needs to put really well(don't fancy his putting much) and will need the bit of luck to go with it.

Whoever's on him best of luck but I'd rather pick 1 player out in the group bets at 4/1 or so and increase my stake.

qwabercd · 13-02-2014 12:55am

Northern Trust
De Laet (as per usual although sad to see most of he value gone on him)
C.Howell
Dufner

African Open
Walters
Lee

The_Kew_Tour · 13-02-2014 12:56am

bobwilliams wrote: »

I may eat humble pie come Sunday night but I think 11/1 outright for Dustin Johnson is probably the scabbiest price I've seen in a long while for a pga event.

No matter what you say about course form etc he still has 150 odd lads to beat,needs to put really well(don't fancy his putting much) and will need the bit of luck to go with it.

Whoever's on him best of luck but I'd rather pick 1 player out in the group bets at 4/1 or so and increase my stake.

Its all comes down to value.

You're right imo, I dont think Johnson is value at all.

Yes he might win, but at 11's? No thank you. I be well out of pocket now if I was picking up those poor prices.

He will win by 6 shots now wont he:pac::pac:

bobwilliams · 13-02-2014 1:09am

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Its all comes down to value.

You're right imo, I dont think Johnson is value at all.

Yes he might win, but at 11's? No thank you. I be well out of pocket now if I was picking up those poor prices.

He will win by 6 shots now wont he:pac::pac:

if he does so be it,i'd prefer to keep the money in the phocha,if he's in the hunt come Saturday morning i might stick a score on just in case.

Can't imagine his price won't at some stage go out a bit,he's not exactly a steady Eddy

Nuri Sahin · 13-02-2014 5:21am

bobwilliams wrote: »

I may eat humble pie come Sunday night but I think 11/1 outright for Dustin Johnson is probably the scabbiest price I've seen in a long while for a pga event.

No matter what you say about course form etc he still has 150 odd lads to beat,needs to put really well(don't fancy his putting much) and will need the bit of luck to go with it.

Whoever's on him best of luck but I'd rather pick 1 player out in the group bets at 4/1 or so and increase my stake.

I'm really only following him from last week. When his short game is in good nick like it was at Pebble over the weekend and given his natural fade, he has an excellent chance this week IMO. Apparently opened at 16/1, though I saw so such price. Happy with 14/1 anyway.

redzerdrog wrote: »

I am also very much a creature of habit and have my favourites who I back and I also have those I rarely if ever back. I got lucky last year in a way that two of the golfers I backed regularly won twice each when I was on, Dustin Johnson and Joost Luiten, another regular I backed was Kuchar. Then on the other end of the scale I have noticed I very rarely backed Sergio, this wasnt a conscience decision more to do with the fact he I feel he is underpriced most weeks. I am also finding it hard to back the likes of DeLaet lately as previously backing him at triple figures he is now regularly in 20s

Funny how it works, man. I'd be the opposite myself.

Love back to back Sergio over the years usually, well, before TPC last year anyway. Put myself through some torture golf viewing over Xmas and watched his collapse at 17th for the first time since seeing it live. Depressing!

I can't stand Kuchar. I think I've backed him a couple of times when he was flying the past few years and he's always done poorly. Another reason is because of... his smile. No doubt the most silliest reason for not backing someone I know! There's something some insincere about him. Hard to describe, can trust a man with a smile like that. :pac: Also still smarting for that ridiculous shot he hit in the Playoff vs Laird a few years ago.

Like Luiten this week btw. Himself and Olesen are a coin flip most weeks almost it feels like! So talented.

bobwilliams · 13-02-2014 8:07am

Nuri.....i did see DJ open @14/1 in my local and tbh i'd say his price never changed after that.
It's a small independant and very few do golf bets,the sheets for the golf are printed off and prices aren't adjussted after that,you get the price on the sheet,i always keep the sheet for proof.

Also,on occasion they get the starting times wrong so the odd time i will have an hour start to back someone in the o/r market.

redzerdrog · 13-02-2014 12:57pm

as the kew tour says it all comes fown to value. i personally love dustin but 11s is too short i was tempted by 14s but if he had of been 16s i mighy easily of had 5pts e/w on him. It really is very fine margins at times.

Re Kuchar he was part of my biggest coup iv had gambling so have a soft spot for him.

It is mad that peoples favourites vary so much and the the silly reasons we have for not backing someone. I am as bad as anyone for it. eg. Speith is a favourite of many but every time he slaps his puttet after missing a 5 footer i want to smack him

The_Kew_Tour · 13-02-2014 4:37pm

I love Sergio and I would love to see him win a major. From a betting point of view he has let me down couple of times. Few too many, but he still a star in my eyes.

If he only got the putter going few times he be a multiple major champion now.

Actually where this weeks event is being played is where Steve Elkington won his only major beating Monty in a playoff way back in 1995. He holed a 25ft putt in the playoff. One of my first memories of watching majors and Golf.

Like Sergio, had Monty won that Major more then likely he would have won 5+

Dolph Starbeam · 13-02-2014 4:39pm

First bet of the year for me. Just going to ease myself into it, going for 2 that I backed a bit last season and that I see being tipped here.

Speith @18/1
DeLaet @20/1

The_Kew_Tour · 13-02-2014 9:49pm

Lovely Start for Dustin Johnson backers.

mailburner · 13-02-2014 10:12pm

on spieth and van zyl also done monday (20s+16s)and as
usual better prices were available yesterday

just took the duf right now at 25s -2 after 3
he was good to me last year and tend to jump
on board when he starts well

manafana · 14-02-2014 2:20am

manafana wrote: »

I love the horses for courses type players who often open a nice price before the smart money pushes them in.

My African Open Picks here:

two most confident choices,

Gregory Bourdy 18/1 various- Starting get over his cycling injury and was a threat last week in Joburg for a while. Runner up here last year so likes the test of this course. He putted poorly last year so should have really won and has won before in South Africa. At nearly twice the price of Aiken he looks over priced here.

Adilson De Silva 85 + Betfair (16 place) – Sets standard for outsiders with his straight driving and his very good GIR here. He has been thereabouts of late and could well push on this week to threaten.

good start from bourdy, santos shot the lights out with a 9 under

SnowDrifts · 14-02-2014 3:16pm

Jordan Spieth gone out to 66/1 but still only 6 shots off the lead.... He is out early today and I expect he will go low.

premierstone · 14-02-2014 3:56pm

SnowDrifts wrote: »

Jordan Spieth gone out to 66/1 but still only 6 shots off the lead.... He is out early today and I expect he will go low.

Only 6 shots behind but in fairness there are 102 players within 6 shots and as things stand he is actually outside the cut mark, very compressed field at the minute.

The Golf Tips Thread

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