Glut of repossessed houses could depress prices ‘by up to 25%’

MouseTail wrote: »

We are still building nowhere near replacement rate.

Certainly in key high demand areas yes

The_Conductor wrote: »

This is the knux of the issue- we are not building where people want to live- and in the lesser demand areas- we all want low density housing.

In most EU markets there is a mix of highrise and lowrise in the selfsame areas- there isn't a ghetto'isation as we've become accustomed to, here.

The over-riding issue in all of this- is the 28 (or however many) separate councils/authorities, with their own rules, doing what they want in their back yards, and no-one looking at the bigger picture of what the country as a whole needs. Mind you- this applies to pretty much all decisions in the country- parish politics are alive and well.........

Yep and that's why I'd love to see a list system along side proportional representation operating in our country today.

El_Dangeroso wrote: »

I think another thing to factor in is we currently have a demographic bubble in the 30-34 age group.



This is the prime settling down getting married buying a house type.

Look at that sharp drop off in the 25-29 age group.

I don't think we are going to see a raft of house price drops in the next 6 months or even a year, but if I were to bet, I'd be thinking that we'd be looking at a gentle slope back down from 2016 onwards unless other factors such as net immigration come into play.

Problem with most of what's been posted up here and especially in regard to stats, is what we refer to in my place of work as, analysis paralysis, in other words you spend so much time analysing possible outcomes, good and bad that you decide the best course of action is to do nothing.

cookie1977 wrote: »

Joe Duffy now. Hard not to feel sympathy.

Precis?

MouseTail wrote: »

We are still building nowhere near replacement rate.

Do houses get demolished when old people die?

gaius c wrote: »

Precis?

Do houses get demolished when old people die?

No - but they also don't have 200+ year lifespans.....

gaius c wrote: »

Po houses get demolished when old people die?

They get run down, burn down, fall in to the sea, someone realises they were built on a flood plain, get redeveloped for non-housing use, get demolished for roadworks, etc, etc. I'd hazard a guess that of the houses my 16 great great grandparents lived in maybe three or four are still intact and less are still houses.

cookie1977 wrote: »

I'm taking her at her word here but essentially their business went bust they lost their primary home through giving it up under pressure from banks and moved into a part finished second home (converted garage). They have 2 kids (i think under 5). They cant pay full whack mortgage at presnt but instead pay 750 and in December they had offered 1000 per month to the bank and asked would the bank park half the mortgage for 20 years while they got back on tehir feet (no mention of debt right off at all). Bank refused and went ahead for repossession. They're heading to the high court next over the case but feel they're going to loose. She sounded very genuine and her description of being on anxiety meds was pretty heart breaking to be honest (said she feels no emotion while on them and acts like a robot around her kids).

I know others dont feel the same way for many of these people and I know that renters and FTB's suffer too but I just dont believe the stress levels can be equated. It's just quite sad really.

Listen here:
http://podcast.rasset.ie/podcasts/audio/2014/0213/20140213_rteradio1-liveline-dealingwit_c20525080_20525082_232_.mp3

I suffer because I pay e1100 per month to a landlord because there are no houses available to buy partly because of people like her not having her house taken from her. This is causing stress to me such that I can't sleep well some nights.

The Spider wrote: »

You can buy a house, just not in the area you want....

For sure, I can buy in the area I like too but whatever is on sale is very bad quality.

lima wrote: »

I suffer because I pay e1100 per month to a landlord because there are no houses available to buy partly because of people like her not having her house taken from her. This is causing stress to me such that I can't sleep well some nights.

Yeah, because the stress of having to pay rent due to the fact that the houses you can afford aren't up to your quality standards is the same as the stress endured due to severe negative equity and unaffordable mortgages.

It's a sad state of affairs when people appear to be sitting back hoping that a family with two young children gets thrown out of their homes so that prices drop and they can afford a house of a slightly higher quality.

marathonic wrote: »

Yeah, because the stress of having to pay rent due to the fact that the houses you can afford aren't up to your quality standards is the same as the stress endured due to severe negative equity and unaffordable mortgages.

It's a sad state of affairs when people appear to be sitting back hoping that a family with two young children gets thrown out of their homes so that prices drop and they can afford a house of a slightly higher quality.

With that attitude, everyone now should stop paying their mortgage as its quite obvious there is alot of support to keep people in homes they cannot afford. If they get thrown out, they can rent or get social housing like other people.

daRobot wrote: »

Yep, if you can't pay your mortgage, out you go.

Cold as it sounds, it has to be like this. You own your home only when the mortgage is paid. Realistically until that is done, you're leasing it from the bank.

And what happens if you stop paying the lease on a car? They'll come around and forcibly take it from you.

This is precisely the reason that prices are creeping up in desirable areas. Nama aren't releasing what they have, and houses in arrears aren't being repossessed.

Exactly, there has to be punishment for not paying.

Otherwise what was the point in me putting myself through education to get the good job I have? I can just buy a house and retire. I'm sure these people bought these houses thinking they would go up in value. They should have known, and it's their own fault they took risks. Risks mean chances things will go wrong, and they did.

lima wrote: »

PS plenty of people who agrees with me in the comments here:

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/mother-breaks-down-in-tears-as-bank-moves-to-repossess-her-small-converted-garage-having-already-repossessed-her-family-home-30007650.html

This woman should just rent like the rest of us commoners. The sense of entitlement of some property 'owners' astounds me.

You sound bitter that more houses havnt been repossessed. Is that because you believe people are getting away with something, or is it really that its the selfish reason that you want house prices to fall on the back of others misfortune.
By all means if repos are on the market go ahead and buy, but wishing ill on people purely for your own future gain is a bit sick. It will make you a bitter old person.

This thread is a year old now. What will you do in a years time if there still arent enough repos to stop house prices rising. Will you buy then, or wait another year for the fabled flood of repos.?

Look as I see it (and I think this woman's case is a prime example), not nearly enough was done to restructure troubled but viable mortgages (I do not mean mortgage right offs/right downs) and the repossession process (including the absolute waste of space PIP's) has been a government led disaster. It all leads to a lot of people suffering needlessly and a lot of people feeling resentful about what they see as people "getting away with it". And as I've said before, while there are those that can and won't pay there are also those that are trying to do very reasonable deals (like this woman) but are being blocked by what I see as still an unfair and poorly regulated mortgage arrears process.

On another note the most recent CB stats on arrears are all moving int the right direction for the country.

Villa05 wrote: »

In contrast are landlords selfish and greedy counting their "paper" gains from their portfolio and extracting as much rent as possible from young people trying to get a start in life.
Are landlords using a rigged market for their own self interest and greed. Were people to be repossessed, Who would be buying same properties for a home and who would be buying for a quick buck

There are 40,000 mortgages 2 or more years behind in repayments. Sometimes it is in the interests of the mortgage holder to call time on it and close out that particular chapter and move on. I believe that many in this category have realised that but can't believe their luck that the system allows them to enjoy an asset they have no intention of paying for. Who could blame them for getting what they can out of it they were burned as well.

Meanwhile the bill keeps rising and all parties involved are broke, so as with everything in this country someone else has to pay up. The problem is those that are expected to pay are clamoring for the exits.

This will all end happily ever after of course!!!!

There are both landlords and normal householders in trouble with their mortgages.
Despite popular belief landlords can only charge what the market will allow them to. Any business will charge as much as the market will allow. That is the nature of running a business. Landlords already have the cards stacked against them with unfair taxes and charges, but these, when the market allows will be passed on to the end customer - as with any other business.

Not treating property investment like any other business is the cause of the lack of rental supply. That and new taxes and charges being added at will. People that normally would have tried to dip their hand into it are now not doing it and leaving it to the professionals, reducing the number of properties available to rent.

Its time people realized that the more you charge the landlord, the more the tenants eventually will be paying for rent.

But to be fair, I would rather see landlords who dont / cant pay their mortgages have their properties repossessed than ordinary people, as they are an investment that went wrong, not a family home in difficulty. But there wont be many investment properties in Dublin anyway that are in too much trouble nowadays.

We all know once there is the threat of court. mortgages start getting restructured and paid and the case gets dropped.

But there are a hell of a lot of houses and apartments well outside Dublin that there is no chance of ever getting back in the game. I can see those being repossessed alright.

If they are not investment properties the problem is that those people have probably lost their jobs. Some of these people dont realize that it is probably trying to stay living on their house in the middle of the country that is preventing them getting a job and should let go anyway. When they do get their house repossessed then they are free to move to look for a job. Most likely to Dublin.

I have reviewed many houses for a BTL investment and the numbers just don't stack up - even buying at today's prices. There is a general misconception in this country that landlords are able to pocket the vast majority of the rent they receive. This is not the case and I'll be certainly staying out of the market until it becomes more profitable - either through increased rents or decreased property prices.