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Exactly what percentage of the population is "christian"?

24567…70

Comments

  • #32
    Bannasidhe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,218 ✭✭✭✭Bannasidhe


    Sarky wrote: »
    Heh, I am just after an outraged uberCatholic telling me on Twitter that if not for the RCC we'd all be Unionists. I immediately thought of you. ^_^

    Can't take the credit for unearthing the truth behind the so-called Island of Saints and Scholars BS - that was done and dusted back in the 1970s.

    Can't imagine why it never made the School History textbooks... :rolleyes:

    I am busy proving that there were *gasp* Gaelic women and they drank, shagged, owned lots of stuff in their own right, had private armies and navies, controlled nearly all the money in the country and divorced or aborted pregnancies when they wished to...

    :cool:

    It's all right there in the State Papers and Gaelic Annals.


  • #33
    robindch
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,473 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    AerynSun wrote: »
    Well, if we add up all of those figures I listed, Ireland is officially 89.4% Christian.
    That figure is unlikely to reflect reality in any meaningful sense for a range of reasons including:
    • Parents filling out census forms for kids and putting down their own religious beliefs, not any religious beliefs actually held by the child (if any).
    • People claiming a religious belief to help maintain domestic tranquility
    • People claiming a religious belief for reasons of culture or tradition, rather than supernatural reasons
    • People claiming a religious belief, when their beliefs about the religion are mildly or substantially incorrect
    When you add up the above, I think the figure of ~90% christian is likely to decline drastically -- IMHO, probably to less than 50%, and quite possibly closer to 10% or less especially on account of the last reason.

    The current inflated figures for christian belief are like so much else in christian belief - nothing more than a pious, self-interested fiction.


  • #34
    AerynSun
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 544 ✭✭✭AerynSun


    Bannasidhe wrote: »
    I am busy proving that there were *gasp* Gaelic women and they drank, shagged, owned lots of stuff in their own right, had private armies and navies, controlled nearly all the money in the country and divorced or aborted pregnancies when they wished to...

    :cool:

    It's all right there in the State Papers and Gaelic Annals.

    Is Brigid of Kildare in there? :)


  • #35
    AerynSun
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 544 ✭✭✭AerynSun


    robindch wrote: »
    That figure is unlikely to reflect reality in any meaningful sense for a range of reasons

    I'm totally with you on everything that you've said - but until someone has done some scientifically credible social research on the subject, there isn't going to be any reliable data that can be used as the basis for a universally acceptable argument on the subject. I don't know anyone who has money to invest in this research, so it's unlikely to happen anytime soon (unless someone can write a convincing research proposal and 'sell' it to some rich blighter who has a ton of money they'd be willing to give to this worthy cause?).

    So, in the absence of said incontrovertible research, for argument's sake, I'm willing to work with the stat of 89.4% Christian population in Ireland.

    89.4% doesn't mean that there's a universally agreeable approach to everything Christian, either :)


  • #36
    robindch
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,473 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    AerynSun wrote: »
    I'm totally with you on everything that you've said - but until someone has done some scientifically credible social research on the subject, there isn't going to be any reliable data that can be used as the basis for a universally acceptable argument on the subject.
    There's a lot of surveys about from which it's possible to gain a fairly accurate picture of the precariousness of catholic belief.

    Two minutes with google shows this mostly-pointless mostly-political poll from the ACP which showed that 75% of people who claim to be catholic disagree with the church's dogma on gay men having sex. Faith Survey quotes an IT poll which shows that only 26% of people who claim to be catholic believe in transubstantiation, one of the most important dogmas of the RCC. Irish Central quotes another IT poll which shows that 45 per cent do not believe in hell, 18 per cent do not believe that God created man and a truly confused 7% don't believe in whatever god they happen to believe other catholics believe. A Gallup Poll claims that in 2011, 44% of the country are "not religious".

    Given these figures, claiming that 90% of the country are catholic/christian/whatever is -- as above -- flat out wrong.


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  • #37
    Bannasidhe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,218 ✭✭✭✭Bannasidhe


    AerynSun wrote: »
    Is Brigid of Kildare in there? :)

    I only go back to the 11 century an up to the early 17th. I do have the redoubtable Fionnuala Nic Dhomhnaill aka Iníon Dubh who, allegedly, swum out to a Crannóg and slit the throats of 9 men who 'insulted' her - as she had a personal army of some 1500 men it was agreed to not press the matter...

    and of course I have Gráinne Ní Mháille - could paper the downstairs loo with documents in the State Papers about her activities... My favourite being a letter from a tax collector to Elizabeth's 'PM' Burghley in London where he explains why he was unable collect any money - Gráinne, apparently, wrote him a letter and told him both herself an her husband were on their way to intercept him but that she was half a day closer and how he should hope her husband reached him first or... He fled.


  • #38
    AerynSun
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 544 ✭✭✭AerynSun


    Bannasidhe wrote: »
    I only go back to the 11 century an up to the early 17th. I do have the redoubtable Fionnuala Nic Dhomhnaill aka Iníon Dubh who, allegedly, swum out to a Crannóg and slit the throats of 9 men who 'insulted' her - as she had a personal army of some 1500 men it was agreed to not press the matter...

    and of course I have Gráinne Ní Mháille - could paper the downstairs loo with documents in the State Papers about her activities... My favourite being a letter from a tax collector to Elizabeth's 'PM' Burghley in London where he explains why he was unable collect any money - Gráinne, apparently, wrote him a letter and told him both herself an her husband were on their way to intercept him but that she was half a day closer and how he should hope her husband reached him first or... He fled.

    Sure sounds like you have an interesting job alright :)
    I could take inspiration from Fionnuala - there be a few men who've 'insulted' me, and... mmm... right let me stop before my retribution fantasies sweep me into trouble :)

    I asked about Brigid because there's an interesting tidbit on Choice Ireland's website from 2008, where they call her Ireland's First Abortionist.


  • #39
    Bannasidhe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,218 ✭✭✭✭Bannasidhe


    AerynSun wrote: »

    I asked about Brigid because there's an interesting tidbit on Choice Ireland's website from 2008, where they call her Ireland's First Abortionist.

    Yup.

    It's in Life of St Bridget.

    Available here: http://www.ucc.ie/celt/published/T201010/


  • #40
    AerynSun
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 544 ✭✭✭AerynSun


    robindch wrote: »
    There's a lot of surveys about from which it's possible to gain a fairly accurate picture of the precariousness of catholic belief.

    Two minutes with google shows this mostly-pointless mostly-political poll from the ACP which showed that 75% of people who claim to be catholic disagree with the church's dogma on gay men having sex. Faith Survey quotes an IT poll which shows that only 26% of people who claim to be catholic believe in transubstantiation, one of the most important dogmas of the RCC. Irish Central quotes another IT poll which shows that 45 per cent do not believe in hell, 18 per cent do not believe that God created man and a truly confused 7% don't believe in whatever god they happen to believe other catholics believe. A Gallup Poll claims that in 2011, 44% of the country are "not religious".

    Given these figures, claiming that 90% of the country are catholic/christian/whatever is -- as above -- flat out wrong.

    Two minutes with Google isn't necessarily the best way to get reliable, trusted data that carries any kind of credibility in religious circles - but since Faith Survey gives good references to IPSOS MRBI surveys, I'm more impressed than I would have been otherwise. But thanks for all of those links - will be looking into them and seeing what I can use, and add to my archive of useful references. Appreciate the pointers :)
    Bannasidhe wrote: »
    Yup.

    It's in Life of St Bridget.

    Available here: http://www.ucc.ie/celt/published/T201010/

    Excellent - thanks for the pointer, that's very useful :)


  • #41
    robindch
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,473 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    AerynSun wrote: »
    Two minutes with Google isn't necessarily the best way to get reliable, trusted data that carries any kind of credibility in religious circles [...]
    Two minutes is enough to get a good picture and an hour would produce fairly incontrovertible evidence :) but it would be wasted:

    287247.jpg


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  • #42
    AerynSun
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 544 ✭✭✭AerynSun


    robindch wrote: »
    Two minutes is enough to get a good picture and an hour would produce fairly incontrovertible evidence :) but it would be wasted:

    Okay okay, I take your point, I will stop whining about the lack of research and do a literature review... when I get time (in amongst all of my other projects).

    But you're right though, that in many cases people only hear what they already believe. The old 'confirmation bias'. (Awful pun... sorry!) :pac:

    This is a great article.


  • #43
    Brown Bomber
    Site Banned Posts: 8,331 ✭✭✭Brown Bomber


    Days 298 wrote: »
    I said no to the 9 out of 10 would have no problem with the cross.

    I believe in separation of state and church. Where everyone feels included. I went to a Catholic secondary school and I felt excluded due to my lack of faith in some classes and addresses by the principal.

    My compromise is no child or adult should feel excluded from a state address like the Christmas address or a state funded building like a school or hospital

    I've no problem with individuals expressing their faith in public. Decorate you hospital bed with your faiths objects. My problem is if I go to use a hospital I find crosses placed everywhere by the state funded hospital. Private hospitals can do as they please IMO as well as schools.

    Here's the compromise. Freedom of expression and practice of religion for all but the state should not endow a faith.

    It's easy. We all live side by side. All feeling included in our multicultural society and no one left out due to their faith or lack of. What's wrong with that?

    I more or less agree with you but let's be honest your "compromise" is non-existent. You aren't prepared to offer the sizable majority of Christians anything at all beyond no anti-clericalism. You just insist you are right and they are wrong


  • #44
    Brown Bomber
    Site Banned Posts: 8,331 ✭✭✭Brown Bomber


    robindch wrote: »
    There's a lot of surveys about from which it's possible to gain a fairly accurate picture of the precariousness of catholic belief.

    Two minutes with google shows this mostly-pointless mostly-political poll from the ACP which showed that 75% of people who claim to be catholic disagree with the church's dogma on gay men having sex. Faith Survey quotes an IT poll which shows that only 26% of people who claim to be catholic believe in transubstantiation, one of the most important dogmas of the RCC. Irish Central quotes another IT poll which shows that 45 per cent do not believe in hell, 18 per cent do not believe that God created man and a truly confused 7% don't believe in whatever god they happen to believe other catholics believe. A Gallup Poll claims that in 2011, 44% of the country are "not religious".

    Given these figures, claiming that 90% of the country are catholic/christian/whatever is -- as above -- flat out wrong.

    You can't honestly put some random anonymous surveys with pockets of the population over the national census which surveys the entire population?

    Can you see historians of the future referring to Gallup Polls data when the census figures are available?


  • #45
    AerynSun
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 544 ✭✭✭AerynSun


    Brown Bomber wrote: »
    You can't honestly put some random anonymous surveys with pockets of the population over the national census which surveys the entire population?

    Can you see historians of the future referring to Gallup Polls data when the census figures are available?

    The census gathers quantitative data only - so it cannot be used as a stand-alone measure of people's faith experience. Qualitative data is needed, and if the closest thing that we have are representative polls done by reputable agencies like IPSOS MRBI... then those polls should be taken to give complementary insight into a complex faith landscape.

    It's not an either/or situation, it's a both/and.


  • #46
    Brown Bomber
    Site Banned Posts: 8,331 ✭✭✭Brown Bomber


    AerynSun wrote: »
    The census gathers quantitative data only - so it cannot be used as a stand-alone measure of people's faith experience. Qualitative data is needed, and if the closest thing that we have are representative polls done by reputable agencies like IPSOS MRBI... then those polls should be taken to give complementary insight into a complex faith landscape.

    It's not an either/or situation, it's a both/and.

    Granted, but If we are not to use the census figures for gauging religious affiliation which is specific down to the last persona then what do we use?

    No amount of private surveys on a limited number of people can contradict the census. It eliminates speculation.


  • #47
    robindch
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,473 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    Brown Bomber wrote: »
    You can't honestly put some random anonymous surveys with pockets of the population over the national census which surveys the entire population?
    I'm not sure if you read my post before replying to it -- I'm saying that the census figures are unreliable because they do not say what people think they say. For the reasons given. In this case, historians of the future are unfortunately quite likely to laugh when reading the figures and wonder why people so cheerfully spent so long deluding themselves.


  • #48
    robindch
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,473 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    Brown Bomber wrote: »
    No amount of private surveys on a limited number of people can contradict the census.
    I'm afraid they most certainly can.

    For -- again -- the reasons given.


  • #49
    Bannasidhe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,218 ✭✭✭✭Bannasidhe


    Brown Bomber wrote: »
    Can you see historians of the future referring to Gallup Polls data when the census figures are available?

    If they are any good at their job they will certainly examine all available information and investigate why there is such a discrepancy between census and polls.


  • #50
    wp_rathead
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,087 ✭✭✭✭wp_rathead




  • #51
    Brown Bomber
    Site Banned Posts: 8,331 ✭✭✭Brown Bomber


    robindch wrote: »
    That figure is unlikely to reflect reality in any meaningful sense for a range of reasons including:
    • Parents filling out census forms for kids and putting down their own religious beliefs, not any religious beliefs actually held by the child (if any).
    • People claiming a religious belief to help maintain domestic tranquility
    • People claiming a religious belief for reasons of culture or tradition, rather than supernatural reasons
    • People claiming a religious belief, when their beliefs about the religion are mildly or substantially incorrect
    When you add up the above, I think the figure of ~90% christian is likely to decline drastically -- IMHO, probably to less than 50%, and quite possibly closer to 10% or less especially on account of the last reason.

    The current inflated figures for christian belief are like so much else in christian belief - nothing more than a pious, self-interested fiction.

    The above looks like idle speculation to me. Could you be precise in the numbers effected for each point and support with evidence your claims?


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  • #52
    AerynSun
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 544 ✭✭✭AerynSun


    Brown Bomber wrote: »
    The above looks like idle speculation to me. Could you be precise in the numbers effected for each point and support with evidence your claims?

    I can tell you it's not idle speculation - those are sound points. I have over a decade of pastoral experience in a Catholic context, and robin's list of reasons is a fair reflection of what I've encountered 'on the ground'. The only trouble for me, is that because so much of people's faith experience is subjective it needs well thought out qualitative criteria to measure: and I don't know that I've seen that done effectively and credibly by any one survey. Still: the variety of surveys that are out there, do give complementary bits of information that contribute useful insights into a conversation about faith and religious identity, and how people make meaning of their beliefs and belonging in a faith community.


  • #53
    robindch
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,473 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    Brown Bomber wrote: »
    The above looks like idle speculation to me. Could you be precise in the numbers effected for each point and support with evidence your claims?
    The first three items are anecdotal, but likely to be quite widespread. If you wish to be more specific, you could note, for example, that kids below the age of around ten or so aren't intellectually mature enough to hold religious beliefs in any real sense. So they should be excluded without further comment from the "90% are believers".

    The last item is shown in the multiple links which I posted in this post to which you've already replied to (but ignored the links).


  • #54
    Brown Bomber
    Site Banned Posts: 8,331 ✭✭✭Brown Bomber


    Bannasidhe wrote: »
    If they are any good at their job they will certainly examine all available information and investigate why there is such a discrepancy between census and polls.

    True, but they could have this discrepancy explained to them by typing "sampling error" into google

    Sampling error
    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Jump to: navigation, search
    In statistics, sampling error is incurred when the statistical characteristics of a population are estimated from a subset, or sample, of that population. Since the sample does not include all members of the population, statistics on the sample, such as means and quantiles, generally differ from parameters on the entire population. For example, if one measures the height of a thousand individuals from a country of one million, the average height of the thousand is typically not the same as the average height of all one million people in the country. Since sampling is typically done to determine the characteristics of a whole population, the difference between the sample and population values is considered a sampling error[1] Exact measurement of sampling error is generally not feasible since the true population values are unknown; however, sampling error can often be estimated by probabilistic modeling of the sample.

    A census by definition has no such error. And what are the discrepancies anyway? Does a Catholic get ex-communicated if they want equal rights for gays?


  • #55
    AerynSun
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 544 ✭✭✭AerynSun


    Brown Bomber wrote: »
    Does a Catholic get ex-communicated if they want equal rights for gays?

    That depends on how loudly the Catholic says it, and who is around to hear them saying it. :pac:


  • #56
    robindch
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,473 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    Brown Bomber wrote: »
    A census by definition has no such error. And what are the discrepancies anyway?
    Some of the discrepancies are listed in some of my previous posts if you care to scroll up a post or two.

    Your point about sampling error is entirely irrelevant, as it's already understood by any person familiar with opinion polls (you appear to be unfamiliar with them).


  • #57
    AerynSun
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 544 ✭✭✭AerynSun


    On the subject of 'what happens to Catholics who speak out against Church dogma or accepted doctrine?' - you could spend a few quid on Tony Flannery's book: A Question of Conscience.


  • #58
    Bannasidhe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,218 ✭✭✭✭Bannasidhe


    Brown Bomber wrote: »
    True, but they could have this discrepancy explained to them by typing "sampling error" into google

    Sampling error



    A census by definition has no such error. And what are the discrepancies anyway? Does a Catholic get ex-communicated if they want equal rights for gays?

    Is a 'Catholic' still a 'Catholic' when they not only do not follow the Tenets of the Roman Catholic Church but actively disbelieve those same Tenets?

    And yes - census do have errors. Compare the literacy figures from the 1901 and 1911 census and it would appear mass illiteracy broke out at some point between the two.

    What actually happened was a pension bill in 1906 which stated that illiterate people got a wee bit more money. So on the 1911 census returns people who in 1901 stated they were literate suddenly forgot how to read and write good.

    Thing about census returns is - no one checks the answers are accurate just that all the questions are answered.


  • #59
    Brown Bomber
    Site Banned Posts: 8,331 ✭✭✭Brown Bomber


    robindch wrote: »
    Some of the discrepancies are listed in some of my previous posts if you care to scroll up a post or two.

    Your point about sampling error is entirely irrelevant, as it's already understood by any person familiar with opinion polls (you appear to be unfamiliar with them).

    How is it irrelevant??

    The polls you posted which survey a tiny fraction of the population are flawed by sampling error.

    The Census by definition has no such flaw. This is quite relevant.


  • #60
    robindch
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,473 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    Brown Bomber wrote: »
    How is it irrelevant??
    You should try to read the full text of peoples' posts before replying.

    In this case, you seem to have stopped reading just before the word "as" which documents the justification for the previous claim.

    You could also try reading Bannasidhe's post above which documents a simple reason to distrust census data as it relates to peoples' self-descriptions.


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  • #61
    AerynSun
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 544 ✭✭✭AerynSun


    Brown Bomber wrote: »
    The polls you posted which survey a tiny fraction of the population are flawed by sampling error.

    The IPSOS MRBI survey methodology (polls posted on the Faith Survey website that robin gave us a link for) is reputably sound, the 'sampling error' that you imagine all polls are subject to, is not a valid objection in this case.


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