Latest - Western forces prepare for Military strikes in Syria, strike just hours away

Tony EH · 09-09-2013 01:18AM

realweirdo wrote: »

It was either Assad who carried it out or the rebels. So in your opinion who was it?

My own belief is it was Assad.

Your belief seems to be that you don't know, you haven't been able to process the information quickly enough.

I don't have "belief". I don't put any credence in it. It's important to rely on fact here. Facts don't change, they just are, and the fact is that there is no evidence to prove your belief.

realweirdo wrote: »

You seem to assume also that anyone who believes it was Assad forces who carried it out are automatically stupid which is frankly bullsh*t.

I'm not assuming anything, least of all that which you are accusing me of. I haven't called anyone stupid.

realweirdo wrote: »

I will repeat only Assad had the means, motive, lack of morality and everything else you want to mention in regard to this.

Not true, in any of your scenarios.

Means - very easy to carry out. 5 guys did it in a Tokyo subway in the 90's. There's Al Qaeda operating in the area. It certainly wouldn't be beyond their reasoning. Besides, nobody has stated how the attack was carried out.

Motive - Assad has EVERYTHING to lose and NOTHING to gain in such an attack. On the other hand, the rebels (or elements within) have everything to gain.

Lack of morality - NOBODY has the vantage point on "morality".

realweirdo wrote: »

In other words I am in absolutely no doubt as is most of the world that the 21st August Chemical attack was CARRIED OUT BY ASSAD.

...Because you want it to be so. Nothing has been proven. No facts have been put forward. All that exists are claims and that's not good enough.

realweirdo wrote: »

As for evidence there is litterly tons of it...You are unwilling to listen to any evidence that points to Assad, while at the same time not coming up with even one piece of hard firm evidence that points to the FSA.

Unfortunately, there isn't any evidence to show conclusively who carried out the attack. This is the issue. There isn't even an ounce that's been put forward, never mind tons. There's nothing. It's absolutely impossible to draw any conclusion at the moment.

dublinbhoy88 · 09-09-2013 08:45AM

@realweirdo
How are the American backed jihadists getting on in Maalouja,how many civilians slaughtered in this town

Wildlife Actor · 09-09-2013 09:39AM

realweirdo wrote: »

Because he is stupid...that's if he actually ordered it which is a mute point in any regard.

The latest intel (German) is that commanders on the ground were pushing for its use for months beforehand which he refused. My own view is that he either gave the go ahead or more likely a local commander under pressure from above to push back rebels ordered its use. It was a dumb dumb move, but then again Assad is a dumb president. He has brought his country to disaster through bad decision after bad decision.

I saw that German stuff in the papers - it is equivocal on Assad's involvement and insofar as we're getting a version of the intelligence rather than the recordings, one has to consider what Germany's objectives are (I don't know) in releasing that info before accepting it at face value - but whatever you might think about "bad" or "dumb" decisions in general, this is more than that. The bank bailout may have been a bad decision, but one can understand that some people thought it a good one at the time. This by contrast is one where the consequences were put out there in black and white and couldn't have been.

What I'm saying is that the rebels had enormous motive to do it and Assad had none. You can't logically say he did it because he's dumb and makes dumb decisions. That's not logical.

Sierra Oscar · 09-09-2013 11:02AM

Very interesting development today, the US Secretary of State has stated that no military intervention will occur if Syria hands over its chemical weapons. That won't happen, but it shows that the US is trying to back out of undertaking military action now.

AlekSmart · 09-09-2013 11:31AM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Very interesting development today, the US Secretary of State has stated that no military intervention will occur if Syria hands over its chemical weapons. That won't happen, but it shows that the US is trying to back out of undertaking military action now.

As with many of the United States actions in modern times,this particular one smacks of "Marketing".

The sight of John Kerry doing the "Flyaround" of various capitals in order to "Sell" the American line shows him as merely the latest Salesman for American policies,not all of which,mind you are bad,but not all of which anybody actually wants either...a bit like the KleenEze brochure dropping through one's letterbox.

A significant part of the issue,for me,revolves around the American requirement for simplicity in all it's Foreign Policy issues...the requirement for "Good Guys" and "Bad Guys" in order to convince it's own people that they are in fact fighting the good-fight.

Civil-Wars however,particularly those fought in tribal or religiously dominated regions are rarely simply Good vs Bad and often,as in Syrias case,involve a parallel descent into complex and sinister local tribal issues.

There are so many complex side-show issues which run alongside the Main Feature that rarely,if ever,enter the United States Foreign Policymakers minds until far too late in the process...

In the Real World (Outside the U.S.A) it rarely comes down to Republican vs Democrat alone.

Cork boy 55 · 09-09-2013 12:28PM

I cannot believe there is still people doubting that the Loyalists carried out the attack its not an Agatha murder mystery

Its a binary choice
1=loyalist element
0=insurgents element

The probability is 1 that it is loyalist element
The probability is 0 that it is insurgents element

To suggest that the insurgents carried out the attack is utterly upsurd
Are we to believe that

-in the BESIEGED relativity small enclave of the Ghouta

-that There exists A COVERT insurgent rocket regiment unit which process tons of Sarin gas chemical weapons, chemical weapons rockets warheads, chemical weapon delivery system
-A rather large quantity of all
-and the training, discipline and co-ordination to use them
-which launched a mass co-coordinated accurate simultaneous strike at dozens of targets spread across the city on one of the few days the wind was blowing from the east
-slaughtering their own population support base, comrades and endangering the ghouta enclave arguable the most decisive and key terrain in whole of Syria
-and kept this conspiracy a secret .
-Without any evidence that any of these thing exist(the units the weapons the systems the plot the means)

We know The loyalist process all these things
within range of the Ghouta.
Why did they Block the UN inspectors
Why did they set fires to purify the Air
Why did they shell the neighborhood extensively afterwards
Why have they now launched an all-out assault against the Ghouta the first part of which was the chemical massacre to break the population which they threw everything at in the conventional arsenal and all their best units and failed previously
The Ghouta is critical terrain however controls it wins the war in the west The loyalist have already lost in the north and east there only hope is a New state of west Syria
and if they want The South-west of the country and not the just the cost they have to crush the Ghouta its the Most important and decisive patch of terrain in the state.
The chemical massacre is merely a extension of the campaign of democide waged against unloyal populations by the loyalists

.

dublinbhoy88 · 09-09-2013 12:57PM

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

I cannot believe there is still people doubting that the Loyalists carried out the attack its not an Agatha murder mystery

Its a binary choice
1=loyalist element
0=insurgents element

The probability is 1 that it is loyalist element
The probability is 0 that it is insurgents element

To suggest that the insurgents carried out the attack is utterly upsurd
Are we to believe that

-in the BESIEGED relativity small enclave of the Ghouta

-that There exists A COVERT insurgent rocket regiment unit which process tons of Sarin gas chemical weapons, chemical weapons rockets warheads, chemical weapon delivery system
-A rather large quantity of all
-and the training, discipline and co-ordination to use them
-which launched a mass co-coordinated accurate simultaneous strike at dozens of targets spread across the city on one of the few days the wind was blowing from the east
-slaughtering their own population support base, comrades and endangering the ghouta enclave arguable the most decisive and key terrain in whole of Syria
-and kept this conspiracy a secret .
-Without any evidence that any of these thing exist(the units the weapons the systems the plot the means)

We know The loyalist process all these things
within range of the Ghouta.
Why did they Block the UN inspectors
Why did they set fires to purify the Air
Why did they shell the neighborhood extensively afterwards
Why have they now launched an all-out assault against the Ghouta the first part of which was the chemical massacre to break the population which they threw everything at in the conventional arsenal and all their best units and failed previously
The Ghouta is critical terrain however controls it wins the war in the west The loyalist have already lost in the north and east there only hope is a New state of west Syria
and if they want The South-west of the country and not the just the cost they have to crush the Ghouta its the Most important and decisive patch of terrain in the state.
The chemical massacre is merely a extension of the campaign of democide waged against unloyal populations by the loyalists

.

Any proof besides your propaganda?

bumper234 · 09-09-2013 01:04PM

dublinbhoy88 wrote: »

Any proof besides your propaganda?

Did you really need to quote all of that just for a 5 word answer?

dublinbhoy88 · 09-09-2013 01:08PM

bumper234 wrote: »

Did you really need to quote all of that just for a 5 word answer?

I asked him a 5 word question

Cork boy 55 · 09-09-2013 01:34PM

"Assessing Chemical Weapons Use in Syria"
17 minutes video detailing the munitions found at sites of the chemical massacre in Ghouta 21 August by RUSI(Royal United Services Institute)

http://www.rusi.org/analysis/videos/ref:V522D9DF12E360#.Ui27t9KsiSp

dublinbhoy88 · 09-09-2013 01:41PM

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

"Assessing Chemical Weapons Use in Syria"
17 minutes video detailing the munitions found at sites of the chemical massacre in Ghouta 21 August by RUSI(Royal United Services Institute)

http://www.rusi.org/analysis/videos/ref:V522D9DF12E360#.Ui27t9KsiSp

What part of the states are you from?

Tony EH · 09-09-2013 02:10PM

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

I cannot believe there is still people doubting that the Loyalists carried out the attack its not an Agatha murder mystery

Without actual proof, this means nothing. There are people on the opposite side from Assad who are well capable of such actions. This cannot be discounted. There are some EXTREMELY unsavory groups operating in Syria.

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

To suggest that the insurgents carried out the attack is utterly upsurd
Are we to believe that

-in the BESIEGED relativity small enclave of the Ghouta

-that There exists A COVERT insurgent rocket regiment unit which process tons of Sarin gas chemical weapons, chemical weapons rockets warheads, chemical weapon delivery system

Nobody has offered anything to suggest that the attack was carried out in that manner and Sarin (if indeed that was used) can be delivered in very simple ways. It doesn't need a rocket.

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

-A rather large quantity of all

You wouldn't need a large quantity of product to do damage. 5 guys in Tokyo caused 5000+ casualties in the 90's.

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

-and the training, discipline and co-ordination to use them

The insurgents are not some rag tag "Red Dawn" type group, they are populated by many different types of people, some of which are from Syria's own military forces, coupled with the fact that there are many jihadist groups within the ranks of the rebels, who have been fighting in some way for over 10 years. "Training" doesn't come into it.

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

-which launched a mass co-coordinated accurate simultaneous strike at dozens of targets spread across the city on one of the few days the wind was blowing from the east

AGAIN, 5 guys from some loony religious group carried out a devastating, highly orchestrated, sarin attack in the Tokyo underground. If they can do it, it certainly isn't byond the capabilities of Al Qaeda to do it. That's for sure.

It may well turn out that it was Assad's forces, or elements within. It's all up in the air, and without solid actual proof, it remains up in the air. What matters is proof, that shows without a doubt that the attack came from a certain quarter.

Without such, it's just speculation.

But, again...the salient question remains, WHY would Assad carry out this attack, when the consequences are so dangerous to his position? It just doesn't make any sense whatsoever. His forces have the upper hand. He really has NOTHING to gain employing an attack of this nature...

...and everything to lose.

Cork boy 55 · 09-09-2013 02:53PM

Tony EH wrote: »

Without actual proof, this means nothing. There are people on the opposite side from Assad who are well capable of such actions. This cannot be discounted. There are some EXTREMELY unsavory groups operating in Syria.

Nobody has offered anything to suggest that the attack was carried out in that manner and Sarin (if indeed that was used) can be delivered in very simple ways. It doesn't need a rocket.

You wouldn't need a large quantity of product to do damage. 5 guys in Tokyo caused 5000+ casualties in the 90's.

The insurgents are not some rag tag "Red Dawn" type group, they are populated by many different types of people, some of which are from Syria's own military forces, coupled with the fact that there are many jihadist groups within the ranks of the rebels, who have been fighting in some way for over 10 years. "Training" doesn't come into it.

AGAIN, 5 guys from some loony religious group carried out a devastating, highly orchestrated, sarin attack in the Tokyo underground. If they can do it, it certainly isn't byond the capabilities of Al Qaeda to do it. That's for sure.

It may well turn out that it was Assad's forces, or elements within. It's all up in the air, and without solid actual proof, it remains up in the air. What matters is proof, that shows without a doubt that the attack came from a certain quarter.

Without such, it's just speculation.

But, again...the salient question remains, WHY would Assad carry out this attack, when the consequences are so dangerous to his position? It just doesn't make any sense whatsoever. His forces have the upper hand. He really has NOTHING to gain employing an attack of this nature...

...and everything to lose.

Just because you say things like "Nobody" does make them true
There's overwhelming evidence from analysis,witness and sources that it was a rocket attack see the video posted in last post for example, including extensive UXO material.

The Tokyo Subway attack was carried out by a moderate sized well-financed cult with years of planning in a Country filled with heavy chemical industry using LIQUID sarin and only killed 13 and severely injured 50 people the vast majority of casualties where minor it's possible in crowded underground enclosed areas to cause large number of minor causalities you can do this simply by releasing smoke FFS.
There is NO comparison and anyone that try's is merely pedaling misinformation
like your cry of 5000+ casualties by 5 men

It would require many tons of Sarin to kill and sicken that many people in the Ghouta

NO special systems or training involved in handling chemical weapon you say
Ok dokey I suppose the precursors just mix themselves and the fuses just set automatically

Why are applying logic, control, rational and competence to Loyalist leadership these
people are insane, savages and amoral, They losing the war on most fronts july/August where the most successful months of insurgency so far with the introduction
of the ATGM(anti-tank guide missiles) on rebel side. They have to take the Ghouta to win war in the west and they thrown all their best units
and conventional munitions at it
Therefore they went chemical to win backing perhaps correctly on western indecision as it may turn out. The fact that we now witnessing an all out assault on the Ghouta shows this is all planned at senior level

Your assertion that Al-qauda carried out the attack shows a serious lack of understanding of Syrian conflict They DO NOT want Intervention.
Anyone who things they carried this out does not have a clue

Scofflaw · 09-09-2013 02:57PM

dublinbhoy88 wrote: »

What part of the states are you from?

dublinbhoy, you're really not contributing anything worth reading to the debate here. Up your game, or don't post - and by "up your game" I mean deal with people's arguments and evidence, refute them where you can, and where you can't, don't just post one-liners saying it's all propaganda, that people are shills or the like.

Other people can make up their own minds on the evidence presented, and your interjections don't make any difference to that.

Before you post an outraged reply to this, accusing me of being a supporter of whatever it may be, please read the forum charter, or you'll have even more to complain about.

moderately,
Scofflaw

dublinbhoy88 · 09-09-2013 03:02PM

Scofflaw wrote: »

dublinbhoy, you're really not contributing anything worth reading to the debate here. Up your game, or don't post - and by "up your game" I mean deal with people's arguments and evidence, refute them where you can, and where you can't, don't just post one-liners saying it's all propaganda, that people are shills or the like.

Other people can make up their own minds on the evidence presented, and your interjections don't make any difference to that.

Before you post an outraged reply to this, accusing me of being a supporter of whatever it may be, please read the forum charter, or you'll have even more to complain about.

moderately,
Scofflaw

If you can't stand the heat get out of the kitchen as the saying goes

Scofflaw · 09-09-2013 03:11PM

dublinbhoy88 wrote: »

If you can't stand the heat get out of the kitchen as the saying goes

Fair enough - you can come back into the kitchen in a week, and I hope you'll be better able to stand the heat then.

moderately,
Scofflaw

Tony EH · 09-09-2013 03:12PM

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

Just because you say things like "Nobody" does make them true
There's overwhelming evidence from analysis,witness and sources that it was a rocket attack see the video posted in last post for example, including extensive UXO material.

Claim, allegation, rumour and hearsay is not evidence. Only factual evidence, backed by proof, is of any use.

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

The Tokyo Subway attack was carried out by a moderate sized well-financed cult with years of planning in a Country filled with heavy chemical industry using LIQUID sarin and only killed 13 and severely injured 50 people the vast majority of casualties where minor it's possible in crowded underground enclosed areas to cause large number of minor causalities you can do this simply by releasing smoke FFS.
There is NO comparison and anyone that try's is merely pedaling misinformation
like your cry of 5000+ casualties by 5 men

It's a perfectly valid comparison, and amply demonstrates the HUGE holes in your argument. It doesn't matter if you don't want to accept it. The fact still remains that the Aum Shinrikyo were able to carry out a chemical attack, with minimal resources and a a few men. Their first attack was delivered from the back of a truck.

It simply doesn't take a massive attack to cause devastation using chemical weapons. This is part of the reason why they are considered such a contentious issue.

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

It would require many tons of Sarin to kill and sicken that many people in the Ghouta

No, it wouldn't need "many" tons and such an attack could be delivered in a various number of ways.

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

Why are applying logic, control, rational and competence to Loyalist leadership these
people are insane, savages and amoral, They losing the war on most fronts july/August where the most successful months of insurgency so far with the introduction...

Assad's forces are winning the war on the ground, according to the majority of sources.

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

Your assertion that Al-qauda carried out the attack shows a serious lack of understanding of Syrian conflict They DO NOT want Intervention.
Anyone who things they carried this out does not have a clue

Whatever :rolleyes:

Sierra Oscar · 09-09-2013 03:24PM

The Russian Foreign Minister has indicated that it will work with Syria to ensure that its chemical weapons stockpile is secured by international forces should it prevent military intervention from occurring. The Foreign Minister said that Syria would have no objections to this and it could happen if practical problems can be overcome.

Non-intervention starting to look increasingly likely as each day passes?

Cork boy 55 · 09-09-2013 03:52PM

Tony EH wrote: »

Claim, allegation, rumour and hearsay is not evidence. Only factual evidence, backed by proof, is of any use.

It's a perfectly valid comparison, and amply demonstrates the HUGE holes in your argument. It doesn't matter if you don't want to accept it. The fact still remains that the Aum Shinrikyo were able to carry out a chemical attack, with minimal resources and a a few men. Their first attack was delivered from the back of a truck.

It simply doesn't take a massive attack to cause devastation using chemical weapons. This is part of the reason why they are considered such a contentious issue.

No, it wouldn't need "many" tons and such an attack could be delivered in a various number of ways.

Assad's forces are winning the war on the ground, according to the majority of sources.

Whatever :rolleyes:

There where 12 target areas with Dozens of rockets The UXO evidence of which is still present and has examined by UN inspectors I have seen video
of them looking at the rockets and their chemical sensors going off
of these if you look the video in my post @13:34 you would see these rockets been fired by the red-beret of the republican guard on video.
There's numerous sources on internet both dozens of government(entire EU had blamed assad), MSM and independent(both Syrian and international claiming this was a coordinated mass rocket strike city-wide conducted on the day the wind was blowing from east.

Number of dead Tokyo 13
Number of dead Ghouta 1500

Yes it would require tons of military grade Sarin to sicken that many people in the outside over such wide area, LD50 for Sarin is 70 mg/m3/min by inhalation or 1700 mg/70kg by percutaneous route Which means a full LRM battalion in use

As for Assad is "winning the war" This is false, everything has changed in last month since battle of al-qusayr
The situation is changed on many fronts in last few weeks
There are multiple of dozens of fronts,enclaves and sieges
The Loyalists are winning on some of them Like Homs
The insurgents are winning on others like Aleppo and Darra.
There is stalemate on most and even on fronts where one side is advancing its often painfully slow.
The introduction(by Turkey and GCC) of the large numbers of high quality ATGMS since the battle of al-qusayr
is a game changer , a battle winner. In some areas where the loyalists are operating without popular support i.e local loyalist militas. Loyalist find themselves outnumbered in terms of infantry and reliant on a tank-led defense.
i.e. Tanks used as mobile pillboxes or as SP artillery or to force through supply convoys.
When the ATGMs knock the Armour out, these isolated checkpoints and bases can then be rolled up with light losses to rebels. We have seen this at Menagh airbase where a position which held out for a year was overrun when its tank-led defense was knocked out by ATGMs. and we saw it in Latakia offensive where hill-top checkpoints which had held back rebels for months where overrun as soon as the tanks where picked off by ATGMs
This video(slightly graphic) is a good example an isolated checkpoint defended by 3 tanks, 3 ATGMs are fired and positions falls shortly afterwards with no describable losses to insurgents
before the ATGMs a position like this would have been far far harder to take.
If the ATGMs continue to flow then its not unreasonable to suggest that all areas where the SAA is operating without Infantry parity from loyal militias are doomed to be lost i.e. all those bases/enclaves in the east and north
The ATGM supplies have completely changed the tactical picture in some areas.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=0b9_1376710026
In terms of territory gained and men/equipment losses suffered by Loyalist the Insurgents have arguable had their most successful month ever from Mid-july to mid-august. The biggest victory is at Khan al assal in Aleppo in July
where a whole battalion of SAA where wiped out in a day including alleged post-battle massacre of large numbers of prisoners.
SMC propaganda labelled the recently ended Ramadan the “Month of Victories”
Warning highly biased document from SMC detailing Ramadan gains
http://gallery.mailchimp.com/91f7a2c8b39d32e7ac9968d75/files/NEW_Ramadan_A_Month_of_Victories.pdf

Instead of rolling eyes show one source(excluding wingnut/FSB(putin)/Iran/SYria) that shows that ISIS want Outside intervention in the Levant....

Jonny7 · 09-09-2013 04:09PM

There is no conclusive evidence

Cameron said the evidence was not 100%

What would constitute conclusive proof? hard to say. Post-Iraq everyone is super skeptical - even video footage would definitely be challenged (they are rebels posing as government troops etc)

The world is impotent and Assad knows it. The Russians block anything through the UN and Iraq/etc has meant its politically very difficult for the US to take any unilateral action.

Tony EH · 09-09-2013 04:09PM

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

Number of dead Tokyo 13
Number of dead Ghouta 1500

Nothing solid has been put forward on the death toll. There is no agreement on a number from any quarter. Not even the Syrian opposition forces are claiming 1500 dead.

Nothing solid has been put forward on any of what is suposed to have happened.

You can believe whatever you wish, no doubt you'll go for the highest, because your mind is made up. But more robust proof is needed.

As for the low death toll in Japan (in fact there were no deaths in the underground attack), that's attributable to Japanese authorities speed of movement and reaction to the attack, no doubt spurred on the previous sarin attack carried out by the same group. The subway attack, carried out by just 5 men caused over 5000 casualties, using a tiny amount of the chemical. Their first attack, using an even smaller amount from teh back of a truck, caused hundreds of casualties. Sarin is an extremely potent weapon.

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

Yes it would require tons of military grade Sarin to sicken that many people in the outside over such wide area, LD50 for Sarin is 70 mg/m3/min by inhalation or 1700 mg/70kg by percutaneous route Which means a full LRM battalion in use

No...it wouldn't. Sarin is EXTREMELY toxic, many hundreds more times than various cyanide forms, in fact. A single drop can kill and it's extremely volitle, in as much that it can evaporate into the atmosphere with great speed.

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

As for Assad is "winning the war" This is false, everything has changed in last month since battle of al-qusayr

Rubbish. His forces have been in the ascendant since before the summer. Not only that, but the rebels have been fighting amongst themselves in some cases.

Ignoring this, whether one wants America to bomb or not, isn't going to make it any less true.

Rascasse · 09-09-2013 04:41PM

Tony EH wrote: »

Nothing solid has been put forward on the death toll. There is no agreement on a number from any quarter. Not even the Syrian opposition forces are claiming 1500 dead.

Nothing solid has been put forward on any of what is suposed to have happened.

You can believe whatever you wish, no doubt you'll go for the highest, because your mind is made up. But more robust proof is needed.

As for the low death toll in Japan (in fact there were no deaths in the underground attack), that's attributable to Japanese authorities speed of movement and reaction to the attack, no doubt spurred on the previous sarin attack carried out by the same group. The subway attack, carried out by just 5 men caused over 5000 casualties, using a tiny amount of the chemical. Their first attack, using an even smaller amount from teh back of a truck, caused hundreds of casualties. Sarin is an extremely potent weapon.

No...it wouldn't. Sarin is EXTREMELY toxic, many hundreds more times than various cyanide forms, in fact. A single drop can kill and it's extremely volitle, in as much that it can evaporate into the atmosphere with great speed.

If I'm reading it right, in the Tokyo attack they released 10 litres of sarin in confined spaces (train carriages, from where the gas leaked onto platforms) and killed 13 and injured 6000+. In Syria we have up to 1500 killed in across several towns and villages.

The scale of the attack, the coordination of attacks in towns kilometres apart within the space of a few minutes, the eyewitness reports of hearing rockets flying overhead but no explosions all points to an attack using a chemical the rebels don't have with a delivery system they don't have. There really can only be one credible perpetrator - the Syrian armed forces.

As for why? Well they are fighting an insurrection, not regular forces, so perhaps it was to break the rebels will. Perhaps it was to to strike fear into the population as even if they regain control of the rebel areas they will still need to control the population in the longer term.

alastair · 09-09-2013 04:43PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The Russian Foreign Minister has indicated that it will work with Syria to ensure that its chemical weapons stockpile is secured by international forces should it prevent military intervention from occurring. The Foreign Minister said that Syria would have no objections to this and it could happen if practical problems can be overcome.

Non-intervention starting to look increasingly likely as each day passes?

Hopefully. I'm inclined to believe Assad's side are responsible for this attack, but a disciplinary response in the form of cruise missiles seems like an unwieldy tool.

Sierra Oscar · 09-09-2013 04:52PM

alastair wrote: »

Hopefully. I'm inclined to believe Assad's side are responsible for this attack, but a disciplinary response in the form of cruise missiles seems like an unwieldy tool.

The Syrian Foreign Minister has just welcomed Russia's proposal, as has UN General Secretary Ban Ki-moon. Ban Ki-moon has said that he himself was considering putting forward such a proposal to the UN Security Council.

It just keeps getting worse for Cameron and Obama, starting to emerge that they most definitely jumped the gun initially in thinking that immediate military intervention was the only solution. Hollande has gone very quite now too.

Its not too often you see the UN & Russia working together despite the best efforts of the US to thwart their plans, usually it is the other way around!

EDIT: Cameron has released a statement saying it would be a "big step forward" if Syria handed over control of its chemical weapons to an international force, and that military intervention may not be necessary. Game changer, again.

Amerika · 09-09-2013 05:38PM

So much has changed recently. At this point I don’t think we will see military action from the US. 80% of Americans are against it, and there is a growing consciousness that the President can’t act on his own, as an act of war against Syria (and it would be an act of war), which is not a direct threat to the USA or our allies, needs congressional approval. And if Obama is denied (which might have been his intent all along), he will simply resort to his, and his party's favorite tactic of blaming Congress, Republicans, George W Bush, and some perceived racist hatred against him. But in defeat he will achieve what might have been his ultimate goal all along. That is to diminish the USA’s power and influence on the wold stage, and as best he can within the constraints of the US constitution, turn us into pseudo feckless social-democratic European state. And the media will join him in his blame game, and rejoice in fundamentally transforming the US back to the days of Jimmy Carter.

alastair · 09-09-2013 05:44PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Its not too often you see the UN & Russia working together despite the best efforts of the US to thwart their plans, usually it is the other way around!

tbf - It doesn't really look like the US is trying to thwart anything - Kerry seems to like the confiscation of chemical weapons route too.

alastair · 09-09-2013 05:48PM

Amerika wrote: »

But in defeat he will achieve what might have been his ultimate goal all along. That is to diminish the USA’s power and influence on the wold stage, and as best he can within the constraints of the US constitution, turn us into pseudo feckless social-democratic European state. And the media will join him in his blame game, and rejoice in fundamentally transforming the US back to the days of Jimmy Carter.

Back under your bridge. In any case - the US under Jimmy Carter was rather better (by many measures) than it's been subsequently.

Tony EH · 09-09-2013 05:56PM

Rascasse wrote: »

In Syria we have up to 1500 killed in across several towns and villages.

Says who? The only one touting that kind of figure has been the US and they're hardly honest brokers in all of this. They're simply using the Syrians as a pawn for a greater Middle Eastern game.

Rascasse wrote: »

...the eyewitness reports of hearing rockets flying overhead but no explosions all points to an attack using a chemical the rebels don't have with a delivery system they don't have. There really can only be one credible perpetrator - the Syrian armed forces.

That's hearsay. It doesn't qualify as actual proof. Until there's concrete factual evidence, nothing stands. Anybody can say anything they want. But only facts can be of any real import and so far they have been really thin on the ground.

Rascasse wrote: »

As for why? Well they are fighting an insurrection, not regular forces, so perhaps it was to break the rebels will. Perhaps it was to to strike fear into the population as even if they regain control of the rebel areas they will still need to control the population in the longer term.

That's an extremely weak argument, especially in the light of Obama's "red line" and why do it at this moment? Why now, when Assad's forces have the higher ground? Why now when UN inspectors were less than 20 minutes away? Why now, knowing that the US are just itching to attack under THAT particular pretext?

Tony EH · 09-09-2013 06:00PM

alastair wrote: »

Hopefully. I'm inclined to believe Assad's side are responsible for this attack, but a disciplinary response in the form of cruise missiles seems like an unwieldy tool.

Agreed. I don't know what the US is expecting their proposal to achieve? They want to bomb a country to save face in some way? Because that's really all that such an action will achieve.

And what about so-called collateral damage? Does more death help the situation?

It certainly will do any good for the Middle East as a whole, that's for sure.

It's an unbelievably ridiculous solution.

Tony EH · 09-09-2013 06:04PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The Syrian Foreign Minister has just welcomed Russia's proposal, as has UN General Secretary Ban Ki-moon. Ban Ki-moon has said that he himself was considering putting forward such a proposal to the UN Security Council.

It just keeps getting worse for Cameron and Obama, starting to emerge that they most definitely jumped the gun initially in thinking that immediate military intervention was the only solution. Hollande has gone very quite now too.

Its not too often you see the UN & Russia working together despite the best efforts of the US to thwart their plans, usually it is the other way around!

EDIT: Cameron has released a statement saying it would be a "big step forward" if Syria handed over control of its chemical weapons to an international force, and that military intervention may not be necessary. Game changer, again.

The rest of the world are onto Americas Middle East intentions. Their greedy war in Iraq has shown very clearly that they are not to be trusted with their affairs in the region. I doubt that any nation, never mind Russia, wants to see any more US power there. They already have too powerful a presence and more often that not their meddling in Middle Eastern affairs has made things worse for the people there, not better.

Latest - Western forces prepare for Military strikes in Syria, strike just hours away

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