Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

jersey101 · 07-09-2013 09:51AM

bob charles wrote: »

And I think allot are over optimistic on milk price @ 35c, early 30ish might be closer to reality, some mention dairy product scares like the recent one in NZ bring opportunity, big problem as it could also be threat with a dairy scare in Irish product.

Grain prices are going to be low in the important markets for the foreseeable future (2yr) and plenty of locking in going on at the moment so the big producers will just turn on the tap and produce huge volumes. Anyway sure what the F*** do I know about milking:)

i wasnt putting 35c down as base price i was putting that down as my price due to the solids i would be sending. I used 31 - 32c\l as base price

bob charles · 07-09-2013 10:10AM

mahoney_j wrote: »

Good post bob,

The best of my post was the last sentence:)

jersey101 · 07-09-2013 10:20AM

whelan1 wrote: »

474:eek::eek:mine is 405 and thought that was bad

ye its fairly bad now to ve fair. It would only be a few cows causing it too

arais · 07-09-2013 10:21AM

bob charles wrote: »

The best of my post was the last sentence:)

maybe you know more than most of us ,

I have given up going to co op meetings year in year out listening to B/S predictions about in puts and outputs

At the end of the day waht we produce in IRl will have little effect on milk price, we are just a tea spoon full in the ocean

bob charles · 07-09-2013 10:23AM

The sooner grain prices rise the better for all Irish farmers except the pig and chicken guys. Low grain prices even for farmers that are high users is a disaster,

Farmer Pudsey · 07-09-2013 10:28AM

bob charles wrote: »

And I think allot are over optimistic on milk price @ 35c, early 30ish might be closer to reality, some mention dairy product scares like the recent one in NZ bring opportunity, big problem as it could also be threat with a dairy scare in Irish product.

Grain prices are going to be low in the important markets for the foreseeable future (2yr) and plenty of locking in going on at the moment so the big producers will just turn on the tap and produce huge volumes. Anyway sure what the F*** do I know about milking:)

At early 30's most Irish operations are profitable as lots have costs of less than 20C/acre. Look at the lads that were willing to gamble on a quota of 28 with the expectation of a milk price over 40 on the basis that the costs of producing extra milk was 15C. And you and I know little about milking but most business in farming are fairly similar and if you have an idea of the cost structure you can give an opinion.

red bull wrote: »

Dairy produce is sold mainly through the IDB a co op, as opposed to the beef industry totaly private enterprise

I would imagine that most od the milk is sold by he co-op/plc themselves and they leave there surplus to IDB. My question was can the PLC/co-op handle a 30% climb in product and if they cannot how wil the dairy board handle maybe a 50%+ climb in product and will it be selling it as a commodity it had to see Kerrygold butter taking all the excess

jersey101 wrote: »

i wasnt putting 35c down as base price i was putting that down as my price due to the solids i would be sending. I used 31 - 32c\l as base price

This is a good point as lots of farmers are now 1-2 cent above the base. Over the next few years it will be the tax efficient handling of good years such as this year that may well keep dairy farmers in buisness

bob charles · 07-09-2013 10:49AM

red bull wrote: »

Dairy produce is sold mainly through the IDB a co op, as opposed to the beef industry totaly private enterprise

This isnt the case as all the big boys are going it alone. How much butter are Glanbia, kerry etc putting through IDB. Are IDB sales still around 2Bn? most of there sales are to historic clients

loveta · 07-09-2013 11:46AM

This is a good point as lots of farmers are now 1-2 cent above the base. Over the next few years it will be the tax efficient handling of good years such as this year that may well keep dairy farmers in buisness[/QUOTE]

Very true, any/many of you guy using the three year avg for accounts??

Timmaay · 07-09-2013 12:49PM

jersey101 wrote: »

ye its fairly bad now to ve fair. It would only be a few cows causing it too

Mine has been around 430days last few years, again it would afew cows slipping around that cause that. Moving forward I'll be aiming to block calf in Oct/Nov and then Feb-April, I'll be hoping to keep the carryovers to a minimum, and only the higher yielding ladies, who should at least still be giving me 20L/day at say 500days. I should keep reducing the CI even with these carryovers so, against what we use to do, serve whenever the cow came in heat. Considering you have a far few JE/JEx, do you milk those high CI cows on even if they are down to likes of 10L a day, or do they end up dry for several months? But in my view you'll need to fix that CI before you think about expanding to your 120cows or so and 3.2LU/ha, I know its hard to do both, expand numbers and only serve beef to the high CI animal, but you have to balance it somewhere, and by breeding from those cows you'll struggle to ever get on top of the problem. Maybe also consider sexed semen on the low CI cows for their 1st serve in April? You said you never had a bull on the farm either also, I think they are very useful for those high CI cows, I find alot of the problem can be they don't show signs of heat too well, so letting a beef bull run with the cows from say June/July on will hopefully help reduce the CI on some of them ladies.

jersey101 · 07-09-2013 01:34PM

Timmaay wrote: »

Mine has been around 430days last few years, again it would afew cows slipping around that cause that. Moving forward I'll be aiming to block calf in Oct/Nov and then Feb-April, I'll be hoping to keep the carryovers to a minimum, and only the higher yielding ladies, who should at least still be giving me 20L/day at say 500days. I should keep reducing the CI even with these carryovers so, against what we use to do, serve whenever the cow came in heat. Considering you have a far few JE/JEx, do you milk those high CI cows on even if they are down to likes of 10L a day, or do they end up dry for several months? But in my view you'll need to fix that CI before you think about expanding to your 120cows or so and 3.2LU/ha, I know its hard to do both, expand numbers and only serve beef to the high CI animal, but you have to balance it somewhere, and by breeding from those cows you'll struggle to ever get on top of the problem. Maybe also consider sexed semen on the low CI cows for their 1st serve in April? You said you never had a bull on the farm either also, I think they are very useful for those high CI cows, I find alot of the problem can be they don't show signs of heat too well, so letting a beef bull run with the cows from say June/July on will hopefully help reduce the CI on some of them ladies.

ye i hope to bring it down now by front loading the heifers from now on. I was home here for the spring breeding and i paid really good attention to the cows and have 60 calving from mid Jan to end of march if i can hold it at that i will be very happy. For the winter im going to pull it back 3 weeks this year so im starting in middle sept and try pull it back to mid November. The big problem here was trying to keep cow numbers up so any cow that milked had a value. From this year on any cow that doesn't hold there calf will be gone come winter and ill run it like that from now on. I have lots of replacements so i should be able to do it. I dont think ill ever have a bull tbh dont see any advantage if i can get the cows incalf with ai. Having a bull won't stop cows not going in calf. Also the heat detection was bad here my father just ai,d what ever cows he seen bulling when he was getting the cows. That worked fine with 50 cows split between winter and spring but not with a bigger number of cows. I only scanned the heifers this year and out of the 37 ai'd 36 are in calf do i can be ruthless with carry over cows this year and maybe be able to sell some heifers too because i wont milk more cows till 2015

Timmaay · 07-09-2013 02:10PM

Sounds like you're well on top of it already so! Out of interest where the pure JEs yas have bred for production? I've heard of some very high yielding JEs in the US, as usual at the expense of fertility/longevity.

jersey101 · 07-09-2013 05:54PM

Timmaay wrote: »

Sounds like you're well on top of it already so! Out of interest where the pure JEs yas have bred for production? I've heard of some very high yielding JEs in the US, as usual at the expense of fertility/longevity.

bred for solids here. My father had one back in the 80's that gave 30 litres no bother but she was a hard yoke to get in calf as you said

slippy wicket · 09-09-2013 12:32PM

GIIL milk price for Aug is 39.00cpl incl vat. This represents an increase of 1.50cpl on the base milk price.

Not as much as I would have liked, but then are we ever happy with the price.

whelan1 · 09-09-2013 03:29PM

slippy wicket wrote: »

GIIL milk price for Aug is 39.00cpl incl vat. This represents an increase of 1.50cpl on the base milk price.

Not as much as I would have liked, but then are we ever happy with the price.

what do you think will be the price scenario for the rest of the year

slippy wicket · 09-09-2013 08:52PM

whelan1 wrote: »

what do you think will be the price scenario for the rest of the year

As things stand I'd expect stability until April/may and then attempts to pull the price. It really depends if any weather events or issues like the NZ botulism scare happen between now and then.
Drought in oz and NZ or high feed costs for the yanks would all come into play.

Was at a workshop at the greenfield farm in kk and they believed that 25-28 would be minimum price post 2015.

Viewtodiefor · 09-09-2013 10:40PM

slippy wicket wrote: »

As things stand I'd expect stability until April/may and then attempts to pull the price. It really depends if any weather events or issues like the NZ botulism scare happen between now and then.
Drought in oz and NZ or high feed costs for the yanks would all come into play.

Was at a workshop at the greenfield farm in kk and they believed that 25-28 would be minimum price post 2015.

How did they come up with those numbers?

TEAT SQUEEZER · 09-09-2013 10:52PM

Viewtodiefor wrote: »

How did they come up with those numbers?

from the same place david drumm pulled his from.....
i`m sick of this talking down of milk prices post 2015 :mad:....

slippy wicket · 10-09-2013 12:59PM

Viewtodiefor wrote: »

How did they come up with those numbers?

As above, off the top of head.
They might as well cast the augeries and root in the entrails of a sheep.

slippy wicket · 10-09-2013 03:52PM

To be fair, I should have said that it was an expansion workshop , and it was Teagasc talking about downside risks for the future.
Stress testing your business and all that.

slippy wicket · 10-09-2013 03:54PM

To be fair, I should have said that it was an expansion workshop , and it was Teagasc talking about downside risks for the future.
Stress testing your business and all that.

Milked out · 12-09-2013 07:24AM

Seeing as a lot of the worlds milk is heading for china I'd say one of the main threats to milk price in the future would be china becoming self sufficient or close to it, especially after Fonterra's cock up when consumers may eventually consider home produced milk to be as safe as imported product. However long that takes I don't know but Fonterra are in the process of setting up a few 3000 cow farm clusters over there so its just beginning I'd say

freedominacup · 12-09-2013 09:23AM

Milked out wrote: »

Seeing as a lot of the worlds milk is heading for china I'd say one of the main threats to milk price in the future would be china becoming self sufficient or close to it, especially after Fonterra's cock up when consumers may eventually consider home produced milk to be as safe as imported product. However long that takes I don't know but Fonterra are in the process of setting up a few 3000 cow farm clusters over there so its just beginning I'd say

The Chinese tried that themselves 10 years ago but had to give up because of the amount of water the farms were using. Self sufficiency for China in dairy is unlikely to happen. They are already importing huge amounts of food to feed their human population they aren't going to have the land resources to support dairy. They may have a chance at becoming self sufficient using land they control in Africa but it's unlikely to happen on mainland China.

Timmaay · 12-09-2013 10:30AM

Average farm in China now is like 1 acre also! Our land fragmentation problem is nothing in comparison to them. (Hmm then again, the Chinese government would be alot quicker to force people off their land and sort that out if they wanted to ha). But the other thing is the manufacturing/electronics industry is their economic baby as such, agriculture is lower margin, so they'll just keep on importing food.

The other huge issue against China going self sufficient are things like the protein booster scare, which killed afew babies back in 2009 after some domestic milk was tampered with. As a result, the Chinese have very little confidence in theirown local produce.

Much bigger threat long term IMO is the likes of South America, likes of Chile/South Brazil has huge potential for milk expansion from a low cost grass base. Shorter term, the milk price will be influenced much more on the price of grain.

kevthegaff · 12-09-2013 11:01AM

any word on price for arrabawn, lad from creamery said theyre running .5% over to a friend, how things change! any word on the whole country?

freedominacup · 12-09-2013 01:45PM

kevthegaff wrote: »

any word on price for arrabawn, lad from creamery said theyre running .5% over to a friend, how things change! any word on the whole country?

That info should be on dept website today or tomorrow.:eek:

Bactidiaryl · 12-09-2013 02:57PM

freedominacup wrote: »

That info should be on dept website today or tomorrow.:eek:

Link please.

delaval · 12-09-2013 03:03PM

I for one need milk price to drop fast. Mrs Del is 'finishing' the house. I'll admit it was never finished inside. Lawns were done but I was happy not there much anyway. Arrived home for dinner to meet a kitchen designer, well that's what I was told!!!!

I said I wanted to put in outdoor cubicles but wasn't doing as we agreed never to spend in a good price year. Feel that if you can do in a bad year you really need it. I was informed that that rule only applies to the farm. I was also told to sell the motor bike if I wanted cubicles. I ate the dinner and went back power washing!!

sheebadog · 12-09-2013 03:27PM

delaval wrote: »

I for one need milk price to drop fast. Mrs Del is 'finishing' the house. I'll admit it was never finished inside. Lawns were done but I was happy not there much anyway. Arrived home for dinner to meet a kitchen designer, well that's what I was told!!!!

I said I wanted to put in outdoor cubicles but wasn't doing as we agreed never to spend in a good price year. Feel that if you can do in a bad year you really need it. I was informed that that rule only applies to the farm. I was also told to sell the motor bike if I wanted cubicles. I ate the dinner and went back power washing!!

Sound woman!! Those bikes are dangerous yokes.

delaval · 12-09-2013 03:50PM

sheebadog wrote: »

Sound woman!! Those bikes are dangerous yokes.

So are kitchen designers. Phuckin kitchen designer. He doesn't even make the yokes, designs them. It's the best I ever herd!!!!

poor farmer · 12-09-2013 08:08PM

Lakelands paying 39 cent incl. vat for aug

Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

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