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Syria: How could Assad potentially respond militarily to Cruise Missile strikes?

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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,669 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    hmmm wrote: »
    I doubt it. The Israeli's have struck Syria a few times since this started in order to take out advanced weaponry (4 times I think), at least once to take out a convoy of SA-17s and also more recently a warehouse full of Yakhont anti-ship missiles. They'd be all over a S-300 consignment as it is their number one strategic threat with civilian airliners over Israel being at risk if it became operational.

    Israel would be very brave to strike a S-300 battery whilst being delivered by Russia, or while Russian technicians were overseeing the transition of the weapon from Russian to Syrian hands after delivery as is part of the contract.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 587 ✭✭✭c-90


    NYT article : http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/28/world/middleeast/obama-syria-strike.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

    - Won't attack chemical weapons sites.
    - Target list is fewer than 50 sites (some argue to expand it a bit).
    - Targets include air bases, command sites and military units.
    - Focusing solely on using sea-launched cruise missiles.


    May aswell give them coordinates and timings too if this is correct.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 587 ✭✭✭c-90


    NYT article : http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/28/world/middleeast/obama-syria-strike.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

    - Won't attack chemical weapons sites.
    - Target list is fewer than 50 sites (some argue to expand it a bit).
    - Targets include air bases, command sites and military units.
    - Focusing solely on using sea-launched cruise missiles.



    May aswell give them coordinates and timings too if this is correct.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    c-90 wrote: »
    May aswell give them coordinates and timings too if this is correct.

    There is actually a theory going around a lot of this is being leaked in advance in the hope that Assad will know that it's just a limited operation and therefore won't retaliate in the region.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭Be like Nutella


    makes sense

    I'd be wary of an asymmetric response... terrorism


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,470 ✭✭✭positron


    If I may post something slightly tin foil hatish, US will strike targets in Syria that will hurt Iran most than anyone else. IMHO, Syria is only a scapegoat, or a step towards "taming" Iran. Why now? Because Iran is planning to deal oil in non-USD currencies. Last major oil country who tried this was Iraq under Saddam.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    They actually are going to do the UN theater today afterall. UK to present a resolution later today. There's more chance of Putin getting married to Obama than that passing.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/syria-uk-to-put-forward-united-nations-security-council-resolution


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭Be like Nutella


    If there's always a proxy interest in one party or another in global situations and if it's always impossible to find and present conclusive evidence during a civil war about who did this attack or that attack then how can the U.N. be useful in this scenario apart form to show up who is acting the a$$holes - in this case Russia and maybe China.

    All that ends up happening just as in this case is that International law is decided on by one single party - in this case Russia - and who thinks Russia should be deciding that?

    The convention is very simple, it says you can't use chemical weapons ever under any circumstances - it's overwhelmingly likely that Assad's forces did, whether he ordered it or not doesn't matter - so they need to take action against him - separate to tilting the balance in favor of the rebel side. This is about protecting a vitally important global norm to keep others from using chemical weapons and it's not negotiable.

    I think they need to go as far as hitting his air force and command and control sites.... and then later be also committed to doing something/anything about the chemical sites.

    IF Assad begins an all-out massacre on his own people killing tens of thousands of civilians, essentially genocide, then the world needs to come together and do something about it for sure. But for now this is about the chemical attack.

    What Obama is committing himself to IMO:

    1 Obama is committed to this cruise missile attack now. Has to happen no going back.
    2 He is also committing himself to securing or destroying those chemical stocks IF it seems Assad will use them i.e. if there is major movement of them to load them into scuds etc etc as unlikely as anything else Assad has done!
    3 I think he is also committing himself to stepping in on behalf of Syrian civilians IF Assad begins genocidal massacre of Syrian civilians and by 'stepping in' I mean raising a coalition of the willing, doing the U.N. thing properly and then taking down Assad with a full invasion.

    There is no 100% control now from Obama's point of view. That train has left the station.

    Depending on what Assad does this could go all the way. I hope it doesn't but if Assad is slipping into desperation mode and if he is going to fight to the death then his military actions are likely to reflect that psychology of 'do anything to survive' and as the rebels receive more and more arms, better arms, possibly even shoulder fired rockets and make any gains then it is easy to see this thing eventually going all the way which begs the question - What can the US do after the Cruise Strike to avoid being pulled into a full invasion further down the road as Assad acts more and more desperate in the civil war?

    Do you let them kill each other for years and reduce each others forces as has been bandied about in the media? Pretty harsh stuff but that's the Realist approach being talked about.

    Do you keep arms supply to soft non-lethal options as they 'say' they've been doing... even though there are many reports of arms coming into Syria from Gulf partners with the aid of US 'Advisers' in Jordan etc so this is not entirely true. It's all semantic BS at this stage. Not a tenable position anymore. If the US aren't giving lethal aid then the Gulf Partners are anyway.

    Do you give them shoulder fired rockets which could really turn things up in the civil war allowing them to take out tanks and armoured vehicles and road blocks..... in enough number could really change things. It would result in massive bloodshed and genuinely could result in an AQ affiliated group getting their hands on shoulder fired weapons which could take out an airliner somewhere in the middle east... or turn up beside an airport in the US by way of Mexico. At least this is the argument anyway.

    There is major risk involved in this Cruise Missile attack but I think it is necessary and justified. There's always risk in every military operation. Calm heads in the countries surrounding Syria is what is required - Russia and Israel especially.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Jonny7


    positron wrote: »
    If I may post something slightly tin foil hatish, US will strike targets in Syria that will hurt Iran most than anyone else. IMHO, Syria is only a scapegoat, or a step towards "taming" Iran. Why now? Because Iran is planning to deal oil in non-USD currencies. Last major oil country who tried this was Iraq under Saddam.

    I'm not sure what they could strike in Syria that would affect Iran.

    The Iranian oil bourse has apparently been trading in other currencies for over a year and a half now.

    Tensions with Iran have decreased with the election of moderate Rouhani and the Israelis are relatively more relaxed on the Iranian nuclear program


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,470 ✭✭✭positron


    Jonny7 wrote: »
    I'm not sure what they could strike in Syria that would affect Iran.

    Provoke a reaction from Iran perhaps? Like I said it's only a tin-foil-hat-ish theory, and I believe in next 5 years or so there will be a Western / West-led conflict against Iran, and this appears to me like a strategic step in that direction.
    it's overwhelmingly likely that Assad's forces did, whether he ordered it or not doesn't matter - so they need to take action against him -

    I too agree that there should be action against who ever deployed the chemical weapons. However should everyone not follow whatever due course of action to actually confirm who ordered / used the chemical weapons? There are suggestions that Saudi Arabia is supporting and arming the rebels, and Saudi certainly has their own chemical weapons stockpile and it's plausible that they and rebels staged this to provoke a reaction from rest of the world. Asad's position on the civil war hadn't significantly deteriorated in last month or so, so would he be thick enough to use chemical weapons fully knowing that it will probably trigger a reaction from the West? There are the questions that's bugging me at the moment - and the whole Colin Powell with anthrax bottle in UN security council image is still fresh in our memories...!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Rumors again that Jordanian special forces are on alert on the Syrian border and prepared for an order to secure the chemical weapons sites. Sounds a little bit too Tom Clancy to me, but who knows.

    All of Israel's anti-missile units have been put on alert now. Patriot, Arrow II, Iron Dome, everything. The cabinet there has approved a limited call up of reservists in air defence units this morning. So they are taking the threat of Assad hitting them in retaliation for a Western missile strike seriously.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,596 ✭✭✭cerastes


    Rumors again that Jordanian special forces are on alert on the Syrian border and prepared for an order to secure the chemical weapons sites. Sounds a little bit too Tom Clancy to me, but who knows.

    All of Israel's anti-missile units have been put on alert now. Patriot, Arrow II, Iron Dome, everything. The cabinet there has approved a limited call up of reservists in air defence units this morning. So they are taking the threat of Assad hitting them in retaliation for a Western missile strike seriously.

    If that was the case, any weapons would surely be in the ccontrol or secured by something more than regular troops or conscripts?

    Even if they can determine chemical weapons were used from soil, plant or tissue samples, I cant see how they could determine who released any chemical weapons, what if all the weapons arent secured?

    Sarin keeps coming up too, but the images I saw, showed people effectively having survived, according to wiki and from what Ive heard previously, Sarin is a neuro toxin and affects the nervous system, Im suprised anyone subjected to Sarin (wiki says its 500 times more toxic than cyanide) and the LD-50 in mice is according to wiki, in the microgramme range, I didnt think there would be survivors in anyone receiving a dose.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭Be like Nutella


    The liquid Sarin attack in Tokyo in '95 injured more than 1000 people but only killed 13. Most suffered vision and breathing issues.The delivery method is a big deciding factor on how lethal the attack ultimately is.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,596 ✭✭✭cerastes


    The liquid Sarin attack in Tokyo in '95 injured more than 1000 people but only killed 13. Most suffered vision and breathing issues.The delivery method is a big deciding factor on how lethal the attack ultimately is.

    what was the delivery method, assuming it is chemical weapons,
    artillery/rocket/aircraft
    It must be known what the Syrian means are and if such were operating or operable on the day within range.

    In fact given the harshness of criticism of some nations, you'd think they didnt stock such weapons themselves, I cant understand why anyone has chemical weapons, maybe its the poor mans nuke programme or just more rapidly attainable. If its a deterrent then its all out if you're attacked, you then have the option on the table to use them.

    Im trying to imagine if any nation pre-emptively attacked israel to prevent it developing or acquiring advanced (non wmd) weapons, what the response would be.
    I cant see the advantage of Syria using the weapons as it would only bring condemnation, it seems suspicious, if its correct the national army was gaining the upperhand, then the desperation to use such a weapon isnt there.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    cerastes wrote: »
    If that was the case, any weapons would surely be in the ccontrol or secured by something more than regular troops or conscripts?

    I'd presume so.
    cerastes wrote: »
    Even if they can determine chemical weapons were used from soil, plant or tissue samples, I cant see how they could determine who released any chemical weapons, what if all the weapons arent secured?

    The UN inspectors don't have a mandate to assign responsibility, only to investigate to confirm if those weapons were used.
    cerastes wrote: »
    Sarin keeps coming up too, but the images I saw, showed people effectively having survived, according to wiki and from what Ive heard previously, Sarin is a neuro toxin and affects the nervous system, Im suprised anyone subjected to Sarin (wiki says its 500 times more toxic than cyanide) and the LD-50 in mice is according to wiki, in the microgramme range, I didnt think there would be survivors in anyone receiving a dose.

    Doctors Without Borders who are dealing with the victims on the ground there confirmed hundreds of cases of neurological symptoms, so clearly some type of chemical weapon or gas was used. I haven't seen anyone officially claiming it was Sarin in particular.
    Assad's forces are known to have chemical weapons, they are known to have probably used them already in the conflict on a smaller scale. Assad's forces heavily shelled the site of the chemical attack in the days after it happened - why on earth would they do that unless they were trying to destroy as much evidence as possible at the site? Not the actions of an innocent party, a party that has been killing 10,000's over the past 2 years by conventional means like firing heavy artillery and Scud missiles into cities without any regard for civilian life.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    cerastes wrote: »
    what was the delivery method, assuming it is chemical weapons,
    artillery/rocket/aircraft
    It must be known what the Syrian means are and if such were operating or operable on the day within range.

    In fact given the harshness of criticism of some nations, you'd think they didnt stock such weapons themselves, I cant understand why anyone has chemical weapons, maybe its the poor mans nuke programme or just more rapidly attainable. If its a deterrent then its all out if you're attacked, you then have the option on the table to use them.

    Im trying to imagine if any nation pre-emptively attacked israel to prevent it developing or acquiring advanced (non wmd) weapons, what the response would be.
    I cant see the advantage of Syria using the weapons as it would only bring condemnation, it seems suspicious, if its correct the national army was gaining the upperhand, then the desperation to use such a weapon isnt there.

    Syria's chemical weapons were mostly likely developed as a deterrent against Israel (or other potential attackers) since Syria doesn't have it's own nuclear program. Poor man's nuclear weapon is a good way of describing it.

    I don't think Assad cares all that much about condemnation to be honest. As I said above, for the past couple of years his forces have been using heavy conventional weapons against civilian areas and the world has barely batted an eyelid. He may have felt emboldened knowing he has a cast iron veto at the UN from Russia (and possibly China) no matter what happened, may have gambled that Obama was bluffing about his "red line", especially since nothing happened after the small scale use of chemical weapons earlier.

    It's also possible that the forces that fired those rockets aimed them at the wrong part of the city, or thought it was less populated and wouldn't result in such a large event. Who knows, it's hard to think about rationality when these same forces have used conventional weapons with abandon on densely populated cities.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,596 ✭✭✭cerastes


    I cant understand why there isnt as serious an effort to peacefully reduce and eventually dispose of all biological and chemical weapons compared to the attention of nuclear weapons.
    If anything comes of this I'd hope its something of the above.

    It sounds like either some insurgent group released something or some local level of the Syrian army released this without authority I cant see the Syrian government officially authorising it, it would surely be known to them to be the end of the regime and what some countries require to become involved, unless they really are that desperate or foolish.
    Maybe the shelling is an effort to cover the later if its the case, although indiscriminate shelling does seem par for this conflict.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭Be like Nutella


    Moon is saying the inspectors need 4 more days. But they won't point to who did it anyway so.. what will they eventually say?

    There was a chemical attack
    Hundreds died
    It was a nerve gas of some sort
    It involved many rockets
    It happened in a place where the state forces were pushing rebels out of

    the US has already said it is sure Assad's forces are responsible already and that it won't allow Russia to dictate international law by vetoing the U.N. resolution necessary to take legal military action.

    Whoever conducted the attack broke international law,
    whoever is going to punish them for it will have to it seems.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,669 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    It is looking increasingly likely that there will be no military intervention until after the weekend. David Cameron is running into some serious problems trying to justify intervention to the public, and the Labour party opposing his Commons motion is a big setback.

    I can't see the US going ahead with intervention without the support of Britain.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 812 ✭✭✭wildfowler94


    Irish troops arrive in Syrias Golan Heights on sunday and the UN arms inspectors leave on sunday, any strike will be from Sunday night onwards, possible that it will be mid week


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Interesting turn of events. It looks like a US/UK cruise missile strike was planned to go ahead this weekend but due to Cameron facing an upset in parliament he has been forced to change the motion so that a second vote will be required before UK forces could take action, only after UN inspectors have made their report, (which won't assign blame either way). That could be a week or more away.

    Will be interesting to see what Obama decides. UK may not end up having a direct role at all.

    Edit : CNN report makes it clear Obama has no intention of waiting/delaying. Sounds to me like they will go ahead without any direct UK involvement.

    http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2013/08/28/u-s-officials-united-states-to-act-on-syria-on-its-own-timetable/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭Be like Nutella


    I agree with not waiting IF there is a time sensitive military reason


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,669 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Reuters are reporting that the Syrian Arab Army has already evacuated most of its troops from military centres across Damascus to put them out of harms way.

    Syria evacuates most army buildings in Damascus: residents
    Among the buildings that have been partially evacuated are the General Staff Command Building on Umayyad Square, the nearby airforce command and the security compounds in the Western Kfar Souseh districts, residents of the area and a Free Syrian Army rebel source said.

    It looks like the leaking of potential targets, when it was thought that an immediate strike would likely occur, could be backfiring. Assad could have nearly a week to prepare for military intervention by the time any strikes actually occur.

    EDIT: Reuters are also reporting that the General of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has stated that any military attack will bring about the "imminent destruction of Israel".

    Iran commander: US strike on Syria would bring Israel's destruction
    Aug 29 (Reuters) - Iran's Revolutionary Guards chief said a U.S. military attack on Syria would lead to the "imminent destruction" of Israel and would prove a "second Vietnam" for America, according to an Iranian news agency.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭Be like Nutella


    yeah true but this attack is not about killing soldiers it's primarily about destroying assets and allowing residents to move away from these structures, if they are indeed in the target set, is a good thing too. I assume the main target is air power infrastructure and anti aircraft/anti missile assets. Those are not likely embedded in civilian areas and it wouldn't matter if soldiers evacuated or not they can't move the air bases.

    But deffo the more time Assad has, the more he can do.

    Like I said I would support the US hitting Assad right now, if there was a time sensitive military reason, as opposed to waiting around for Britain's internal political games or even for the U.N. report which the American's say will only back up what they already are sure about - that Assad's forces are ultimately responsible for the chemical attack.

    But IF there are no real tactically important time sensitive aspects to this punitive Cruise missile strike then by all means wait for the report form the inspectors and for Ed Milliband to stop playing games, go through the U.N. theater, get blocked by Russia and do it anyway on grounds for protecting the convention against Chemical weapons.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    6 RAF Typhoon intercepters deployed to Akrotiri to provide air defence for Cyprus.

    Fifth US guided missile destroyer sent to the eastern Med. Maybe backup in case the UK ends up playing no part.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,669 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    6 RAF Typhoon intercepters deployed to Akrotiri to provide air defence for Cyprus.

    Fifth US guided missile destroyer sent to the eastern Med. Maybe backup in case the UK ends up playing no part.

    It is starting to look increasingly likely that the UK will play no role.

    Cameron is floundering badly in the Commons debate at the moment. Some senior Conservative MP's are even in rebellion, seems he misread the party mood on the matter. He could press ahead without political backing, but that would be risky for him.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    It is starting to look increasingly likely that the UK will play no role.

    Cameron is floundering badly in the Commons debate at the moment. Some senior Conservative MP's are even in rebellion, seems he misread the party mood on the matter. He could press ahead without political backing, but that would be risky for him.

    Legally he could do that, but it would be political suicide. That won't happen.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,470 ✭✭✭positron


    Watching the debate on UK parliament on BBC news website - couldn't help notice that they all speak very clearly, very detailed and very convincingly. General quality of the elected members there, as communicators, seems higher than a lot of the folks we have in power, imho.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭Be like Nutella


    Britain's assets were never strategically necessary as we know the US can do it easily on their own.

    What is most import is that the targeting is smart and comprehensive enough to do real damage to Assad's air bases/air defense power without risking civilian casualties which would just be so ridiculously counter productive. Whatever is done needs to be done perfectly and successfully sends a clear message to Assad that if he attempts to use chemical weapons again (assuming it was his/his brothers forces who did it) then he is asking for a much larger military strike on his assets which would really dent his ability to fight the rebels and ultimately survive... because the end of this story involves him dying in some manner or other.
    A man who realizes his life is at risk who has the military at his disposal is a very dangerous man... to Syrian civilians and to the region as a whole.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭Be like Nutella


    There's always some Iranian foolish General to run his mouth off and make things worse with silly overboard comments and make them all look like mental Jihadists, which they aren't. What an eejit.

    Reuters: "Iran's Revolutionary Guards chief said a U.S. military attack on Syria would lead to the 'imminent destruction' of Israel and would prove a 'second Vietnam' for America, according to an Iranian news agency. ... Mohammad Ali Jafari, commander of Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said in an interview late on Wednesday with the Tasnim news agency that a U.S. strike on Syria would not help Israel. 'An attack on Syria will mean the imminent destruction of Israel,' Jafari said, according to Tasnim."


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