Syria: How could Assad potentially respond militarily to Cruise Missile strikes?

Be like Nutella

Now that there seems to be a strike on Assad coming soon does anyone here have any idea as to whether Assad can shoot down Tomahawks? or could he conceivably fire on US warships in the med etc? any opinions? could he stop a cruise missile attack at all? would he be mad enough to hit a ship/could be successfully hit one with what he's got?

Also anybody know how many targets the US would likely try and hit? how long it could take? Could they take out the chemical sites without huge risk?

some people really know their weapons round here so just lookin for any input..

Local-womanizer

I don't think anything is going to happen very soon. It's not a matter of whether Assad can respond and return the damage. The big issue is how the Russians will react to any action on Syria from the west.

Be like Nutella

I know that I was just asking for any knowledgeable opinions on Assad's ability to react or respond to a cruise missile attack. A 4 star gen on the news this evening mentioned an attack could possibly be as short as two nights in duration but he never mentioned whether Assad could take out one of their ships.... so I assume he hasn't got the ability, even with the alleged Russian anti ship missiles... hence the questions..

But on the Russian issue - how could they react? They'll veto any UN efforts but apart form that what could they do? Supply Assad with the anti ship missiles and other weapons? Counter any efforts with the Iranians, sure they do that anyway.. what will they do?

maquiladora

Be like Nutella wrote: »

I know that I was just asking for any knowledgeable opinions on Assad's ability to react or respond to a cruise missile attack. A 4 star gen on the news this evening mentioned an attack could possibly be as short as two nights in duration but he never mentioned whether Assad could take out one of their ships.... so I assume he hasn't got the ability, even with the alleged Russian anti ship missiles... hence the questions..

But on the Russian issue - how could they react? They'll veto any UN efforts but apart form that what could they do? Supply Assad with the anti ship missiles and other weapons? Counter any efforts with the Iranians, sure they do that anyway.. what will they do?

There won't be any UN vote, pointless since Russia and probably China would veto it.

My guess is that it would be a 1-2 day operation probably exclusively with ship/submarine launched cruise missiles. A limited operation, striking a limited number of targets.

I can't see Russia doing anything more than protesting loudly. What else could they do, really?

Earlier this year Russia did supply Assad with P-800 anti-ship cruise missiles, and last month they were allegedly hit in an Israeli airstrike.

It's hard to know with the civil war going on what systems and capabilities Assad still has access to.

The smartest thing for Assad to do would probably be to absorb the limited attack and do nothing. He did nothing after Israel bombed the reactor in 2007 and after other alleged operations because he knows that striking back at Israel could be suicidal. Striking back at the US/UK etc. could turn a limited operation into an unlimited one.

It's tough to know exacly how it will all pan out though.

Be like Nutella

so I guess the big issue is whether Israel are confident they got those P-800s in that strike or whether Russia did supply more anti ship missiles since then as some are reporting..

I think what you're saying about him just sitting back and absorbing a strike makes sense on one hand to avoid as you say a ltd strike operation turning into an unlimited operation which he'd lose,

but,

he will still now suffer the loss of most of his air power if they do hit his 6 main airfields and his 50 or so usable jets and I wouldn't say he planned that type of loss of power if/when he ordered this nerve gas massacre. If he did order the massacre then he has severely miscalculated the international response which I firmly believe will be this cruise/airstrike operation at some point in the next couple weeks.

Apparently the US would only need 24 aircraft (f-15's/f-18's) and 3 ships and all cruise missiles could be fired from outside of Syrian territory putting no US lives at risk.

This plan is quite specific and was leaked recently.

http://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/RequiredSorties-to-DegradeSyrianAirPower.pdf

maquiladora

Be like Nutella wrote: »

so I guess the big issue is whether Israel are confident they got those P-800s in that strike or whether Russia did supply more anti ship missiles since then as some are reporting..

I think what you're saying about him just sitting back and absorbing a strike makes sense on one hand to avoid as you say a ltd strike operation turning into an unlimited operation which he'd lose,

but,

he will still now suffer the loss of most of his air power if they do hit his 6 main airfields and his 50 or so usable jets and I wouldn't say he planned that type of loss of power if/when he ordered this nerve gas massacre. If he did order the massacre then he has severely miscalculated the international response which I firmly believe will be this cruise/airstrike operation at some point in the next couple weeks.

Apparently the US would only need 24 aircraft (f-15's/f-18's) and 3 ships and all cruise missiles could be fired from outside of Syrian territory putting no US lives at risk.

This plan is quite specific and was leaked recently.

http://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/RequiredSorties-to-DegradeSyrianAirPower.pdf

I think it will probably be quite limited, a dozen or less targets. I don't think they are going to go after his entire air force, more like command and control sites, rocket/missile units and the headquarters of whatever unit they believe fired the chemical weapons etc. A one or two night operation.

As to when, the timescale will be days not weeks. I'd expect it to happen sometime between this Wednesday and next Monday.

kravmaga

Be like Nutella wrote: »

so I guess the big issue is whether Israel are confident they got those P-800s in that strike or whether Russia did supply more anti ship missiles since then as some are reporting..

I think what you're saying about him just sitting back and absorbing a strike makes sense on one hand to avoid as you say a ltd strike operation turning into an unlimited operation which he'd lose,

but,

he will still now suffer the loss of most of his air power if they do hit his 6 main airfields and his 50 or so usable jets and I wouldn't say he planned that type of loss of power if/when he ordered this nerve gas massacre. If he did order the massacre then he has severely miscalculated the international response which I firmly believe will be this cruise/airstrike operation at some point in the next couple weeks.

Apparently the US would only need 24 aircraft (f-15's/f-18's) and 3 ships and all cruise missiles could be fired from outside of Syrian territory putting no US lives at risk.

This plan is quite specific and was leaked recently.

http://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/RequiredSorties-to-DegradeSyrianAirPower.pdf

US Navy have now 4 destroyers in the region, me thinks something is going to happen very soon

roadmaster

How good are these p-800's? Would they get through western defences?

maquiladora

roadmaster wrote: »

How good are these p-800's? Would they get through western defences?

http://defense-update.com/20100920_yakhont_in_syria.html

From 2010.

roadmaster

maquiladora wrote: »

http://defense-update.com/20100920_yakhont_in_syria.html

From 2010.

From reading that article from my non military eye would i be correct in saying them missles are useless without su 27 jets or radar aircraft for land based launches since i presume any uk/us/french ships will be well of the coast they will be safe enoght?

IRLConor

roadmaster wrote: »

How good are these p-800's? Would they get through western defences?

Isn't it moot anyway? They've a range of ~160nm and the US vessels can just stand off and shoot Tomahawks (~1,000nm range) and launch F/A-18s (~400nm combat radius unrefuelled, more with refuelling) without putting themselves in harm's way.

maquiladora

Cameron is recalling parliament for a vote on Thursday.

Be like Nutella

So I'm assuming the P-800s are a null point (IF Assad has any left) because any so called 'surgical strike' will simply involve a stand off distance of 200+ Miles and they are rated to 160 as was said.

The Stealth Bombers in Trieste could be used for large gravity bombs to crater runways on those 6 main airfields better than would Cruise Strikes which would not sufficiently degrade those large concrete runways. Would those Stealth B2s be completely out of harms way over 10,000 feet a la Kosovo protocol?

Will the US now go to the UN and go through this theatrical process in order to gain international public support while at the same time highlight Russian and Chinese lack of compassion siding with Assad ending with no clear resolution for a strike? and instead use his use of chemical weapons as a cause to protect international laws of conflict/Geneva Conventions?

Although I agree that the use of chemical weapons needs to be reacted to with force, in every instance, the sheer hypocrisy of standing up for laws of conflict in this instance while shredding thousands of Pakistani hill tribes family members in Waziristan from behind an unacceptable wall of unaccountability is sickening to the stomach.

Also if they are going to try and sell this strike as a reaction to the use of chemical weapons then one would think it would be necessary to prove that this impending operation will actually degrade or diminish Assad's ability to use his chemical stocks in the future, especially seeing as he is, going to pay the price for it already and so is somewhat disposed to using them en masse again during an internal civil war which he knows the west is simply not going to get involved in numbers on the ground. Basically if they do it it has to demonstrably reduce his ability to use chem weapons again because it's their only play if they're not going to roll in.

Lastly, if Cruise missiles don't pack enough umf to destroy underground chemical stores at these locations then one would have to think M.O.P.s on retrofitted stealth B2s will be called upon and there certainly are not many of those. I don't see any other penetrating weapon on the menu which would assure destruction of reinforced storage sites below 30 feet underground. The Inst for the Study of War leaked plan does not deal with destroying underground storage of chemical weapons adequately. Which bomb? which platform? Also the longer they wait to strike surely the more counter measures Assad will take further reducing the likelihood of mission accomplishment.

Jonny7

More mentions in the press of a 2 day strike

Syrian government forces must be preparing for this. If it happens, I presume the US/EU will hit aircraft, runways, helicopters and possibly some command and control centres.

Unlikely to significantly affect Syrian forces - more like a severe slap on the wrist

Sierra Oscar

A lot depends on whether Syria has actually taken delivery of the S-300 missile system from Russia. If they have then they would be capable of targeting warships. There is a lot of confusion surrounding this though. Assad himself claimed earlier in the summer that the SAA had taken delivery of the missile system, but Putin at the time denied that the contract had been fulfilled in full but that it would be in due course. Now Russia, as of yesterday, are claiming that all contracts with Syria are on track - which should mean that Syria has taken delivery of a S-300 battery. There have also been indications that Russian technicians have been on the ground to provide training in the use of a S-300 battery in the future.

It could very well be the case that western intelligence feels that Syria does not have the S-300 yet, but will take delivery soon, and accordingly now is their time to act without suffering heavily causality wise for their actions.

Jonny7 wrote: »

Syrian government forces must be preparing for this.

Definitely. Reports last night were that army units were ordered to leave their bases and spread out to minimize the potential for strikes to cause damage.

Jonny7

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

A lot depends on whether Syria has actually taken delivery of the S-300 missile system from Russia. If they have then they would be capable of targeting warships.

I don't believe they have the system yet, it's slated to arrive 2014 and 6 months training required on top of that.

When the Israeli's called Putin to protest, he told them that if they were so worried they could purchase the system instead.

maquiladora

Jonny7 wrote: »

More mentions in the press of a 2 day strike

Syrian government forces must be preparing for this. If it happens, I presume the US/EU will hit aircraft, runways, helicopters and possibly some command and control centres.

Unlikely to significantly affect Syrian forces - more like a severe slap on the wrist

There may not be any aircraft involved at all in combat roles. Probably just cruise missiles from US ships and a UK submarine. Maybe the B-2 if a target requires a different type of warhead. But they could easily skip those targets since this would be a limited strike and not the start of an all out air war.

They will have aircraft on standby in the region and ready to deploy quickly from elsewhere if the situation escalates though.

Be like Nutella

Jonny7 wrote: »

he told them that if they were so worried they could purchase the system instead.

If Tom Clancy invented Putin as a character in one of his books you couldn't take him seriously.

Ok so if we were to put money on it Assad hasn't got the anti ship missiles ready to go - yet - hence now is the time to strike because if he hasn't got them at this point then the Russians response could be to really give them to him no matter who barks about it. If it's a money thing - how much are we talking? a hundred million or two? Just offer to pay them off

Last thing you want is Assad (or somebody else there) to have these missiles right now.

So what weapon could hit buried or hardened chemical sites successfully?

Could they/would they use the M.O.P. from Stealths (apparently there are a few retrofitted for just that) OR even the MOAB ?

coolemon

Syria would have the capability of defending itself against cruise missile attacks. For example the Syrian SA missile and autocannon system which shot down the Turkish fighter last year is also capable of targeting cruise missiles - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir-S1

Key Syrian installations will be protected and surrounded by 'close in' missile and autocannon systems like this. These usually have a high resolution short range radar which automatically prepares and fires the weapon when the target comes in range. The autocannon would have flak and shrapnel type rounds to increase a hit on an incoming missile. These systems are what naval ships use to defend against anti-ship missiles, like with US ships use of the Phalanx - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phalanx_CIWS

The US regime will try and overwhelm the tracking systems of these defensive weapons by launching dozens of cruise missiles at any one time. Or perhaps distract them with decoy missiles.

Many of the the longer ranged Syrian anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles would have missile intercept capabilities too, but would be more suited to engaging a ship or aircraft than a swarm of oncoming guided missiles. Long range defensive missiles would also be more sparse on the ground and more costly to replenish. Rather than being used they may remain static, defended by the cheaper and more easily replenished close-in weapons systems.

I dont think the Syrian military would have a retaliatory capability.

Be like Nutella

Pantsir-S1

Syria: 36 to 50 on order;[23] signed 2006 as part of arms package worth about US$ 1 billion;[24] deliveries began in August 2007; Jane's Defence Weekly reported in May 2007 that 50 systems are on order by Damascus and that at least ten of those Pantsirs would be handed over to Iran by the end of 2008. According to Jane's Defence Weekly, Iran is reported to be the main sponsor of the deal and is paying Syria for its services as intermediary. Deliveries to Iran are categorically denied by a range of top Russian officials including First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov.

Aerial targets include everything with a minimum radar-cross-section of 1 cm2 and speeds up to a maximum of 1300 metre/second within a maximum range of 20,000 metres and heights up to 15,000 metres—including all types of aircraft, helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles, cruise missiles and air-to-ground precision guided weapons. The system is able to defend against stealth aircraft,[4] and has capability for anti-munitions missions.

Autocannon

Two dual 2A38M 30 mm autocannon guns are fitted with 700 rounds of a variety of ammunition—HE (High Explosive) fragmentation, fragmentation tracer, and armour-piercing with tracer. Ammunition type can be selected by the crew depending on the nature of the target. Maximum rate of fire is 2,500 rounds per minute per gun. Range is up to 4 km. The combined gun-missile system has an extremely low altitude engagement capability (targets as low as 0 m AGL can be engaged by this system).

Wheeled combat vehicles have to be jacked up to keep the machine in the horizontal position and be able to fire the gun. The KAMAZ-6560 has four oil hydraulic jacks for this purpose.

Gun:

Designation: 2A38M
Type: twin-barrel automatic anti-aircraft gun
Calibre: 30 mm
Maximum rate of fire: 2,500 rounds per minute per gun
Muzzle velocity: 960 m/s
Projectile weight: 0.97 kg
Ammunition: 700 rounds per gun
Minimum range: 0.2 m
Maximum range: 4 km
Minimum altitude: 0 m AGL
Maximum altitude: 3 km

Be like Nutella

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jtISoEpaxg

coolemon

^^^

This is why the US regime like to use cluster weapons to overwhelm these defensive systems. Expect to see children being maimed from picking up brightly coloured balls for years to come after they attack.

maquiladora

It will be very interesting to see what Assad does/doesn't do.

It's one thing not to strike back when being hit by a surprise one off air strike that can be covered up or not even acknowledged. But it's a whole other ballgame to sit on your hands for 2/3 days while some of your most important military sites and assets get blown to pieces in strike after strike that are not at all secret and already anticipated and the talk of the streets in Damascus.

Larbre34

Unfortunately as Assad will never see the whites of the eyes of the allies attack, he will take it out on the rebels even more fiercely. It had better be a seriously crippling target package.

maquiladora

NYT article : http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/28/world/middleeast/obama-syria-strike.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

- Won't attack chemical weapons sites.
- Target list is fewer than 50 sites (some argue to expand it a bit).
- Targets include air bases, command sites and military units.
- Focusing solely on using sea-launched cruise missiles.

Be like Nutella

Sounds like they're just going to wack his bases as a warning not to go chemical again on the basis that they can't guarantee their destruction and chem sites are simply too risky to mess with if you're talking a cruise missile strike alone. They might be right.

Pity there isn't a clever weapon which could neutralize a chem stock site from the air without risking lives. If they're buried deep then a cruise strike wouldn't do the job anyway. In fact word is even the biggest ground penetrating weapons are over hyped over rated, too big/too heavy, too expensive.

hmmm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

which should mean that Syria has taken delivery of a S-300 battery.

I doubt it. The Israeli's have struck Syria a few times since this started in order to take out advanced weaponry (4 times I think), at least once to take out a convoy of SA-17s and also more recently a warehouse full of Yakhont anti-ship missiles. They'd be all over a S-300 consignment as it is their number one strategic threat with civilian airliners over Israel being at risk if it became operational.

The Americans will fire in a few cruise missiles and destroy some empty buildings. They might even try taking out the air force. They'll certainly want to help their Jordanian trained force in the South, but I doubt they've decided whether they can be sure of the consequences if they assist the rebels in the North.

Be like Nutella

hmmm wrote: »

They might even try taking out the air force.

I think they could do and they will and that would be a massive blow to Assad's position.

Could even cause defections?

Assad's forces need to be hurt badly for massacring those people in their sleep - if it was Assad's forces who did it. I'm the first to bash America since Cheney's lies but I'd support smashing up his air force as a response to what he has probably done. I'd prefer they also neutralized the chemical sites if that was doable in a safe manner.

maquiladora

Be like Nutella wrote: »

I think they could do and they will and that would be a massive blow to Assad's position.

Could even cause defections?

Assad's forces need to be hurt badly for massacring those people in their sleep - if it was Assad's forces who did it. I'm the first to bash America since Cheney's lies but I'd support smashing up his air force as a response to what he has probably done. I'd prefer they also neutralized the chemical sites if that was doable in a safe manner.

Every leak is saying that the chemical sites won't be targets because it isn't possible to safely take then out from the air, certainly not with 1,000lb cruise missile warheads.

The leaks could be disinformation of course, who knows, maybe there is something to those stories about the US and Jordan training a special task force to go into Syria and secure the chemical weapons.

In other news, the Syrian Electronic Army has just hacked the New York Times website.

Be like Nutella

Richard Haas Pres of the CFR hinted at a possible 24-48 hour time frame in a media call today, as in an attack in the next 24-48 hours.. seems too rushed to me. To do the U.N. theater, get blocked by the Russians and maybe Chinese and then raise a coalition of the willing? Although It is going to be physically US operation (with possible help from a British sub mostly for PR purposes) and the Americans have lost all faith in the U.N. at this point and John Kerry pointed towards Obama not being held back by any bureaucratic timeline so maybe they'll just go ahead and do it who knows. Obama did cancel his meeting with the Russians and the U.N. team seem like they'll be a while completing their end of things so..

maquiladora

Be like Nutella wrote: »

Richard Haas Pres of the CFR hinted at a possible 24-48 hour time frame in a media call today, as in an attack in the next 24-48 hours.. seems too rushed to me. To do the U.N. theater, get blocked by the Russians and maybe Chinese and then raise a coalition of the willing? Although It is going to be physically US operation (with possible help from a British sub mostly for PR purposes) and the Americans have lost all faith in the U.N. at this point and John Kerry pointed towards Obama not being held back by any bureaucratic timeline so maybe they'll just go ahead and do it who knows. Obama did cancel his meeting with the Russians and the U.N. team seem like they'll be a while completing their end of things so..

Nothing will happen until after the vote on Cameron's motion in the House of Commons on Thursday. There won't be any UN theater for this, they'll cite it as a Grave Breach of the Geneva Convention and say it was impossible to act through the UN etc.

Everything that is required for a US/UK cruise missile strike is already there and waiting for the order. Thursday night or Friday night look likely to me. 1-3 days of strikes and then over before the G20 summit next week.