Syria: How could Assad potentially respond militarily to Cruise Missile strikes?

Sierra Oscar

Be like Nutella wrote: »

Britain's assets were never strategically necessary as we know the US can do it easily on their own.

That's not really the issue, it is more so that the US does not want to act alone for legitimacy reasons. Today both France & the UK backtracked significantly, which has undoubtedly delayed intervention at the very least.

Be like Nutella

ah I know they don't... I was just saying the US doesn't need them physically... just politically.

Are France backtracking yeah? I thought they were gung ho

well Obama won't wait too long for them to get their house in order... Can't see him waiting til after next week, seems to be too much momentum behind the US position right now.

maquiladora

It wouldn't surprise me if this was true, and is one of the reasons why delaying and being vey open about an operation and it's targets through leaks and public comments can be a very bad idea.

GAZIANTEP, TURKEY // Syrian authorities have moved prisoners from their jail cells to installations the government believes could be targets of western military strikes, pro-democracy activists in Damascus have told The National.


Residents in the Syrian capital said they had seen fully loaded buses moving late Wednesday from the military court in Damascus to Mezzeh airbase on the southwestern tip of the city, a likely target for US missiles.

The plight of thousands of prisoners held in a vast network of security facilities throughout the country is a major concern for their families and opposition activists.

"People are really scared about the prisoners' safety, and that the US will attack places where the prisoners are held," one pro-democracy activist said. "They are afraid because military bases are in built-up areas so civilians may be caught in the attacks.

"There is a lot of fear that prisoners will take the brunt of the attacks, and they have all seen the civilians killed by US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan," she said.

The opposition Syrian National Coalition also warned that prisoners were being used as human shields by president Bashar Al Assad's forces.

"Assad's fascist regime is amassing detained activists and civilians in prisons inside military locations that may be potential targets for foreign military forces," it said in a statement today.

"Using civilians as human shields is a blatant breach of International Humanitarian Law, and those responsible must be held accountable for crimes against humanity."

Thousands of protesters, rebels and dissidents have been arrested and held in detention since the start of the uprising in March 2011. Many of them remain missing, and are believed to be inside a shadowy network of security branches and military compounds.

The Syrian authorities have never allowed independent international organisations to inspect detention centres run by feared secret police units. Human rights organisations say torture is endemic.

Bracing for possible US-military strikes, residents of Damascus have been stocking up on food, water and fuel, with regime supporters and opponents alike fearful an already brutal war may be about to dramatically escalate.

Many people stayed away from work yesterday, opting instead to join the longer than normal queues at petrol stations and bakeries.

Military forces in and around the capital were on the move, some residents said. Major checkpoints were reduced in size or taken away altogether, especially those manned by members of ultra-loyalist security units.

"Everyone is expecting the strikes soon, and there have been heavy military movements.

"To be honest, everyone is afraid, no matter what side they are on. The regime is afraid of being hit and the anti-regime people are afraid the security will become even more brutal in response," he said.

http://www.thenational.ae/news/world/middle-east/syria-regime-moves-prisoners-to-likely-targets-of-western-military-strikes

Can you imagine a situation where a cruise missile strike meant to punish Assad's forces ends up hitting an air base packed with protesters and opposition prisoners, with their bodies being displayed later on Syrian TV to invoke outrage? Could be a horrible situation. I wouldn't like to be the one responsbile for vetting strike targets right now.

Be like Nutella

very filthy but very creative tactic it has to be said.. I wonder how much truth is in it and to what scale he is doing this in reality... must do some checking.

maquiladora

Be like Nutella wrote: »

ah I know they don't... I was just saying the US doesn't need them physically... just politically.

Are France backtracking yeah? I thought they were gung ho

well Obama won't wait too long for them to get their house in order... Can't see him waiting til after next week, seems to be too much momentum behind the US position right now.

The French aren't backtracking, just stating that they want to hear the inspectors reporting back to the UN, which will happen on Saturday.

Their Horizon class destroyer Chevalier Paul left port today and is heading east in the Med to provide air cover so they are already commited anyway. Not an offensive role though.

maquiladora

Be like Nutella wrote: »

very filthy but very creative tactic it has to be said.. I wonder how much truth is in it and to what scale he is doing this in reality... must do some checking.

It wouldn't surpise if it was true, since even before the uprising Syria was one of the worst abusers of human rights in the world, according to HRW.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/24/us-syria-rights-idUSTRE70N5S620110124

Amirani

While I agree with not allowing the Russian's to dictate international law via their veto, the US can't be allowed do likewise by striking Syria without any sort of mandate.

The UN Security Council is a farce.

listermint

NiallSparky wrote: »

While I agree with not allowing the Russian's to dictate international law via their veto, the US can't be allowed do likewise by striking Syria without any sort of mandate.

The UN Security Council is a farce.

So what is you're solution then.

Amirani

listermint wrote: »

So what is you're solution then.

I've not put enough thought into it to come up with an effective alternative.

Perhaps some mechanism where a 75% (arbitrary figure) majority vote in the General Assembly would override a UNSC veto and provide a mandate for nations to take actions on issues.

maquiladora

Two U-2's have landed at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus.

Be like Nutella

still useful after many attempts to retire them... not enough Global Hawks built yet? or are they nervous about flying Global Hawks over Syria for some reason? could be to do with bases and support.

maquiladora

Be like Nutella wrote: »

still useful after many attempts to retire them... not enough Global Hawks built yet? or are they nervous about flying Global Hawks over Syria for some reason? could be to do with bases and support.

On 26 January 2012, the Pentagon announced plans to end Global Hawk Block 30 procurement as the type was found to be more expensive to operate and with less capable sensors than the existing U-2.

U-2's life has been extended out to 2023 now.

Be like Nutella

wow - that's a long lifespan.

They built at least 40 GHs though didn't they.. surely that's enough to go around

200 mill a pop incl R+D is bit steep in this climate though for a robot.

maquiladora

E-3 deploying from RAF Waddington today, probably heading to Cyprus too. There is already one E-3 there.

Be like Nutella

and people wonder why there's flying saucers reported

booom

I'll be interesting to find out how many (if any at all) S-300's got into Syria and are operational. I'm sure we'll find out soon enough.

Cork boy 55

booom wrote: »

I'll be interesting to find out how many (if any at all) S-300's got into Syria and are operational. I'm sure we'll find out soon enough.

There are none in Syria and there will not be in the short to medium term.

Be like Nutella

I don't think Assad would attempt to strike a US Ship unless he's completely lost control. It would only bring a larger attack.

But who knows, if he ordered the chemical attack he has made one bad miscalculation. Who's to say it's his last.

I can't personally believe some group on the rebel side carried out the gas attack. So I'm going on the assumption Assad ordered it, ok'd it or one of his units did it without his knowledge - maybe his murderous brother.

If he didn't order it why the hell would he shell the area afterwards ???
- that part definitely doesn't make any sense to me and supports the case that his forces did it.

The international community instantly called for some kind of punishment so he knew he was in trouble so if he didn't do it why wouldn't he just get the investigators in there pronto and allow them prove it wasn't his guys who did it? or find his own evidence showing it was somebody on the rebel side?

The way events unfolded it looks almost certain that his side is responsible for the attack as irrational as it seems. His guys had the stuff, they were attacking the area, they had the rockets, they shelled the area afterwards, they wouldn't let the inspectors in for 5 days - he looks guilty as hell.

Cork boy 55

I don't know why people are applying control, competence, rational ,and logic to loyalist forces.
Maybe they just screwed up, There was been 13 different small-scale alleged chemical incidents so far in war
with casualties in the 10s maybe they hit a densely crowded area by accident
The loyalists have screwed up big time before with Tactical ballistic missiles and heavy rocket artillery
Like six months ago when they hit Aleppo University with two TBMs and killed nearly 100 students the Uni was within their own lines.
I don't know what happened, The probability that the insurgents possess weaponized chemical weapons of this lethally and quantity and then deployed it in a mass slaughter if their own women and children of their support base in a false flag in the Ghouta of all places An enclave essentially under siege is close to ZERO.
The probability that the loyalist have deployed these weapons in Ghouta which we know they possess
and have alleged already used numerous times in small quantities is close to ONE

If they did intend to Carry out a massacre maybe they thought they would get away it after the Egypt coup and the Recent terror plots in Yemen

The most likely explanation is that they meant to carry out a minor deniable attack cause some dozens of causalities which could never be proven and hidden by the chaos and fog of war. But something went wrong in the planning and execution
They underestimated the Gas or they hit wrong target or they have a rouge/gung ho leader/unit. Maybe they mixed up munitions and fired Cw when they thought
they firing HE. maybe control in Loyalist forces has broke down or brook down




As for Assad is "winning the war" This is false, everything has changed in last month since battle of al-qusayr
The situation is changed on many fronts in last few weeks
There are multiple of dozens of fronts,enclaves and sieges
The Loyalists are winning on some of them Like Homs
The insurgents are winning on others like Aleppo and Darra.
There is stalemate on most and even on fronts where one side is advancing its often painfully slow.

The introduction(by Turkey and GCC) of the large numbers of high quality ATGMS since the battle of al-qusayr
is a game changer , a battle winner. In some areas where the loyalists are operating without popular support i.e local loyalist militas. Loyalist find themselves outnumbered in terms of infantry and reliant on a tank-led defense.
i.e. Tanks used as mobile pillboxes or as SP artillery or to force through supply convoys.
When the ATGMs knock the Armour out, these isolated checkpoints and bases can then be rolled up with light losses to rebels. We have seen this at Menagh airbase where a position which held out for a year was overrun when its tank-led defense was knocked out by ATGMs. and we saw it in Latakia offensive where hill-top checkpoints which had held back rebels for months where overrun as soon as the tanks where picked off by ATGMs

This video(slightly graphic) is a good example an isolated checkpoint defended by 3 tanks, 3 ATGMs are fired and positions falls shortly afterwards with no describable losses to insurgents
before the ATGMs a position like this would have been far far harder to take.
If the ATGMs continue to flow then its not unreasonable to suggest that all areas where the SAA is operating without Infantry parity from loyal militias are doomed to be lost i.e. all those bases/enclaves in the east and north
The ATGM supplies have completely changed the tactical picture in some areas.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=0b9_1376710026
In terms of territory gained and men/equipment losses suffered by Loyalist the Insurgents have arguable had their most successful month ever from Mid-july to mid-august. The biggest victory is at Khan al assal in Aleppo in July
where a whole battalion of SAA where wiped out in a day including alleged post-battle massacre of large numbers of prisoners.
SMC propaganda labelled the recently ended Ramadan the “Month of Victories”
Warning highly biased document from SMC detailing Ramadan gains
http://gallery.mailchimp.com/91f7a2c8b39d32e7ac9968d75/files/NEW_Ramadan_A_Month_of_Victories.pdf

Be like Nutella

Thanks I didn't know they had that level of anti tank weapon.

It is a graphic video but it shows how effective some of the rebel units are at taking out Syrian military positions and also makes you think what a jihadist group could do with those ATGMs.

Could that weapon be used to fire a chemical shell or was the chemical attack more likely carried out using artillery? I heard reports the chemical shells came from a bridge nearby?

maquiladora

Cameron's motion defeated by 13 votes. No British military involvement in Syria now.

The flipside of that surprise is Obama doesn't have to wait to order a missile strike now. Could come as early as tonight if he wanted.

Be like Nutella

fairnufsky

I really don't like the sound of that tactic of putting the prisoners in the target sites... that could stop anything.

Cork boy 55

Be like Nutella wrote: »

Thanks I didn't know they had that level of anti tank weapon.

It is a graphic video but it shows how effective some of the rebel units are at taking out Syrian military positions and also makes you think what a jihadist group could do with those ATGMs.

Could that weapon be used to fire a chemical shell or was the chemical attack more likely carried out using artillery? I heard reports the chemical shells came from a bridge nearby?

ATGM = Anti tank guided missiles
They have acquired several types Soviet, Russian federation ,Chinese and French. Mostly imports but some have been captured from the Army
They have used them right from start but only in small quantities
After Hezbollah Invaded They appeared in large numbers And changed everything tactically and strategically

NO they cannot carry chemical warheads
Chemical weapon are delivered by Aircraft bombs, Large Rockets artillery 120mm+ Or Large caliber Artillery 155mm+

Reuters report on ATGM shipments

(Reuters)
By Suleiman Al-Khalidi
AMMAN | Thu Aug 15, 2013 11:45am EDT
- Rebels in southern Syria have fired newly acquired anti-tank guided missiles supplied by Saudi Arabia in a significant boost to their battle against President Bashar al-Assad, rebel, intelligence and diplomatic sources say.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/15/us-syria-crisis-arms-idUSBRE97E0QH20130815
Well-made video of 9M113 Konkurs ( AT-5 Spandrel.) in action

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eTAfcQJjd0

Cork boy 55

Cameroon and Hague screwed up they rushed the vote before the USA intel report and UN report

maquiladora

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

Cameroon and Hague screwed up they rushed the vote before the USA intel report and UN report

Remeber though the UN report will only say that chemical weapons were used or not, it won't say who used them, that's not their mandate. Even the Russians and Syrians themselves agree that chemical weapons were used (they just blamed the rebels!), so the UN findings won't really change anything either way.

Congress are being briefed on the US intel at 11pm, the declassified version then will be released either later tonight or tomorrow. That should be interesting.

Cameron f*cked up by not knowing his own parliament, he looks like some dope now.

Be like Nutella

yep seems like they did alright

Sierra Oscar

maquiladora wrote: »

Cameron's motion defeated by 13 votes. No British military involvement in Syria now.

The flipside of that surprise is Obama doesn't have to wait to order a missile strike now. Could come as early as tonight if he wanted.

Wouldn't be surprised if military intervention didn't happen at all now.

Britain will push for pursuing the matter through the courts and applying further sanctions.

maquiladora

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Wouldn't be surprised if military intervention didn't happen at all now.

Britain will push for pursuing the matter through the courts and applying further sanctions.

NYT has got very quick reaction from the White House, they say Obama is prepared to do it alone now, as soon as the inspectors leave on Saturday:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/30/us/politics/obama-syria.html?_r=0

I think that the news of the 5th destroyer being moved into the Med earlier today was probably a backup in case this happened. That destoyer's missiles will now replace the ones that would have been fired from the UK sub.

Be like Nutella

ok so they wait for the UN inspectors account on sat and then are ready to hit the sites? but what about the prisoners story? I emailed that journalist - Phil Sands who wrote that story - haven't heard back

Surely the US has been tasking Sats, GHs and U2s all over Syria and have been watching carefully any movements of people to and from the potential target set so would know if Prisoner buses have been coming or going to any specific sites?

wildfowler94

From the 6 one news it seems there waiting on the UN report for any futher action