Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion 2013/14

Harps · 21-07-2013 9:09pm

Some impressive cells in Northern France at the moment, interesting to see if they can survive the Channel crossing

torrentum · 21-07-2013 9:10pm

Bejubby wrote: »

Just looking at the radar from met.ie and it shows some clouds moving in over sw wexford where I am ,and looking out the window facing south the sky is a real dark black grey colour.
Havent seen any lightening but it looks like it should produce some sparks.
Fingers crossed!

Im in south Kilkenny and the southern sky looks dark and threatening. it was that sky made me check in here to see if any lightning had started anywhere.
Nothing here.
AM/LW radio is full of static though.

Bejubby · 21-07-2013 9:19pm

torrentum wrote: »

Im in south Kilkenny and the southern sky looks dark and threatening. it was that sky made me check in here to see if any lightning had started anywhere.
Nothing here.
AM/LW radio is full of static though.

Now that you mention static the baby monitor is getting some interference but no strikes.
It has started raining though.

whitebriar · 21-07-2013 9:19pm

Raining big drops here in Arklow now.

mike65 · 21-07-2013 9:20pm

Nothing here during a heavy shower, I can only reckon the drops are bouncing off the lawns.

maquiladora · 21-07-2013 9:25pm

Bejubby wrote: »

Now that you mention static the baby monitor is getting some interference but no strikes.
It has started raining though.

The nearest strikes to us at the moment are in the English Channel. Nothing happened around Ireland right now.

Bejubby · 21-07-2013 9:31pm

maquiladora wrote: »

The nearest strikes to us at the moment are in the English Channel. Nothing happened around Ireland right now.

I know that ye,the static im getting on the monitor is just normal radio interference.
Clouds here now have broken up and its stopped raining.
Theres a lovely smell of wet oozing from the ground now and its lovely:)

maquiladora · 21-07-2013 10:05pm

This can change, but at the moment we should see some thunderstorms kicking off tomorrow afternoon especially in northwestern areas.

Then on Tuesday more widespread storms but the western half of the country probably most at risk.

Not as much energy or instability shown as the storms in the UK and France will have, but we saw this morning a big storm sitting off the southwest coast for hours that was putting out hundreds of strikes per hour with fairly modest CAPE and LI values, so you never know, we could get some severe ones in the days ahead.

Wednesday might be interesting too but things change more the further ahead you look so no point looking at that yet.

maquiladora · 21-07-2013 11:35pm

Estofex forecast for 6am Monday - 6am Tuesday has parts of Ireland under a Level 1.

Just highlighting the parts from the discussion that apply to us :

Initiation will occur within numerous time frames. First, showers and thunderstorms probably evolve over Ireland and UK before noon. This activity is forecast to grow upscale during the afternoon hours and numerous northward moving thunderstorm clusters affect Ireland, UK and Scotland.

Once again, a similar severe risk (large hail, strong wind gusts and heavy to excesive rainfall amounts) is forecast with the widespread overnight activity within the complete level 1 area. Stronger shear might support a few well organized multicells, which continue until 06Z while drifting to the NE.

vickers209 · 22-07-2013 9:47am

How are things looking for today?

maquiladora · 22-07-2013 9:52am

vickers209 wrote: »

How are things looking for today?

Things should kick off in the next few hours if the models and forecasters are right. North midlands, western, northwestern areas most likely to see something.

No real change since last night.

Harps · 22-07-2013 11:02am

A big difference between the two main hi-res models for today, HiRLAM showing a few heavy showers later including a heavy one right where I am yet NAE has nothing at all happening until tomorrow.

Iancar29 · 22-07-2013 11:06am

And the WRF is like a mix of the 2 going half way... :rolleyes:

maquiladora · 22-07-2013 11:38am

The differences in the model outputs show the difficulty in trying to predict convective showers. Satellite and radar images are more useful on the day.

Iancar29 · 22-07-2013 1:50pm

....

whitebriar · 22-07-2013 1:57pm

Lol

I've had Bbc radio Devon,on 801khz am on in the car here for the last hour in Wicklow an d no sferic crackle at all,not even one! And you can usually hear them as far away as France on am radio,low but constant.
They get very loud when less than a 100 miles away.
So there's nothing,nada,nothing at the moment.
Yesterday,there were plenty sparks on the radio,even if cells were doa.

Iancar29 · 22-07-2013 2:02pm

whitebriar wrote: »

Lol

I've had Bbc radio Devon,on 801khz am on in the car here for the last hour in Wicklow an d no sferic crackle at all,not even one! And you can usually hear them as far away as France on am radio,low but constant.
They get very loud when less than a 100 miles away.
So there's nothing,nada,nothing at the moment.
Yesterday,there were plenty sparks on the radio,even if cells were doa.

Something im gonna test out later , i THINK our radio downstairs does am still ha.

Don't worry , something has GOT to pop soon .....

fryup · 22-07-2013 2:02pm

Iancar...where did you get that gif ^^

Iancar29 · 22-07-2013 2:06pm

www.Google.com

maquiladora · 22-07-2013 2:10pm

Yep, not a whole lot going on north of France at the moment.

A bust so far, but we'll see what the evening brings.

pad199207 · 22-07-2013 2:10pm

Some visible cumulus here now with very sticky conditions. Dp near 20c now

highdef · 22-07-2013 2:13pm

I'm at home today as am unwell. I've just been out in the garden to get some fresh air and I can tell you that the humidity is really high. I'm right on the border between sun and medium/high clouds and with the temperatures so high round here combined with the humidity, I'm amazed something hasn't gone bang. It's currently 25.3c with 75% humidity and a dew point of 20.6c! - The temp is generally hovering between 24 and 25 but with the sun out a while now, it's still climbing.

pad199207 · 22-07-2013 2:13pm

Cumulus just now

highdef · 22-07-2013 2:25pm

Oh that looks good....a least there is some convection beginning!!! I'll keep an eye out round here too

pad199207 · 22-07-2013 2:35pm

highdef wrote: »

Oh that looks good....a least there is some convection beginning!!! I'll keep an eye out round here too

Yeah seem to be more organized to my north atm in a kind of line

redsteveireland · 22-07-2013 2:55pm

A bit of a development off the clare coast heading towards the Aran Islands according to met eireann radar, Shannon will probably go down soon though.

highdef · 22-07-2013 2:59pm

That would make sense as I am north of you! Some definite convection getting going here now. Very disorganised at the moment but the sky is getting that "summer thunderstorm" look to my immediate south and west. temp is currently 24.4, DP 20.1 and humidity 77%

Here's some convection just to my west:

And here's the view to the south:

Storm 10 · 22-07-2013 3:00pm

Waiting,,,waiting,,,,,waiting

maquiladora · 22-07-2013 3:01pm

This is around the peak time now for instability yet even in the UK things don't seem to be getting going, certainly not a good sign for our more limited chances today.

pad199207 · 22-07-2013 3:05pm

Line of convection that is north of me is now starting to get organized now with some precip building

Larbre34 · 22-07-2013 3:07pm

BBC Weather were talking about plumes and violent storms this morning a lot, but I dont think they were expecting them to kick off in earnest until tomorrow, after a peak in the heat today. I wouldnt be holding out for any significant action in Britain or Ireland today

Iancar29 · 22-07-2013 3:10pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qbQQDI67OM

Iancar29 · 22-07-2013 3:23pm

Anyone else... HATING the french right now? lol

sunbabe08 · 22-07-2013 3:30pm

Any chances of any activity in the youghal area?

tylercollins · 22-07-2013 3:32pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Anyone else... HATING the french right now? lol

Always have :eek:

maquiladora · 22-07-2013 3:36pm

sunbabe08 wrote: »

Any chances of any activity in the youghal area?

Not today anyway.

redsteveireland · 22-07-2013 3:44pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Anyone else... HATING the french right now? lol

Amazing to watch on sat24, the way it developed out of nothing.:eek:

maquiladora · 22-07-2013 3:50pm

Well a sferic has finally shown up in southern England.

Iancar29 · 22-07-2013 4:00pm

redsteveireland wrote: »

Amazing to watch on sat24, the way it developed out of nothing.:eek:

Yep , thats the oul loaded gun situation from it breaking the cap.

Heres a photo from Caen that i just found on twitter

BPyfdlbCAAA3UpU.jpg:large

patneve2 · 22-07-2013 4:18pm

Lovely cells over France!! Had some amazing action here in Rome yesterday: medium sized hail, deluge of rain and 70 km/hr gusts of wind. Most thundery summer in years, already at least 14 days of thunder from the start of June. Unfortunately temps looking to skyrocket over the weekend, 37/38 degrees a certainty at this stage

Reckless Abandonment · 22-07-2013 4:25pm

Shower developing between Maynooth and Leixlip... first bit of rain I've seen in weeks...I've a feeling sparks will happen ..

dloob · 22-07-2013 4:42pm

Looks like something heavy on the east Roscommon border

shamwari · 22-07-2013 4:45pm

gone overcast in Dublin city center and humidity has rocketed with it. could something be brewing??

redsteveireland · 22-07-2013 4:47pm

Something has to happen here?

maquiladora · 22-07-2013 4:49pm

dloob wrote: »

Looks like something heavy on the east Roscommon border

Yeah a heavy shower building near Carrick-On-Shannon.

peasant · 22-07-2013 4:57pm

redsteveireland wrote: »

Something has to happen here?

Was just going to say the same thing ..this has sprung up in the last half hour

fairly hefty showers in that ...must be a thunderstorm

driveshaft · 22-07-2013 5:06pm

Sitting in middle of it right now. A heavy shower with a rattle of thunder every minute or so. Was halfway through mowing the lawn....

Would I be right thinking that it formed over Lough Boderg?

mountainy man · 22-07-2013 5:07pm

It looks to be coming my way, I'd swear I heard a small rumble about 10 mins ago, temperature dropping slowly. Hope it doesn't miss me I need the water!

shamwari · 22-07-2013 5:08pm

peasant wrote: »

Was just going to say the same thing ..this has sprung up in the last half hour

fairly hefty showers in that ...must be a thunderstorm

Eldingar says yes!

maquiladora · 22-07-2013 5:10pm

Yes, it's producing lightning now, sferics reported.

See what did I tell ya, thunderstorm in the northwest. Just started a little late.

Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion 2013/14

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