Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion 2013/14

maquiladora

Friday afternoon/evening still looking like the best chance for something to happen, probably in the northeast area.

Met Eireann forecast hinting at this too.

There is a possibility of some convective cloud developing leading to isolated showers

maquiladora

Just a reminder there should finally be all the right conditions for some thunder showers this afternoon & evening in northern / northeastern parts.

highdef

Thanks for that. With the cold front approaching and temps so high in eastern areas, I will be keeping an eye on any cloud build up

maquiladora

highdef wrote: »

Thanks for that. With the cold front approaching and temps so high in eastern areas, I will be keeping an eye on any cloud build up

The action looks like it might be happening a bit further north, but we'll see what happens in a few hours.

Iancar29

I'm off down to Wexford now , so probably won't be online bar checking radar on my phone , some very sharp cells should go up later on Indeed . Nothing likely down in Wexford though ... Hopefully someone gets something on camera to help with my withdrawal symptoms . Lol

Iancar29

First sight of cumulus in 2 weeks!!! Down here in Wexford

maquiladora

Will we finally get a few sparks today?

Estofex gives us a small chance.

... British Isles ...

Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely under anticyclonic influence. Both instability and shear will be too weak for an augmented severe weather threat.

Meanwhile, I'm daydreaming of a late July Spanish Plume...:rolleyes:

highdef

Looks like a cell has fired up north west of Enniscorthy

Elmer Blooker

that cloud in the south east seems to organizing into round "blobs" - a real tell sign?
http://www.sat24.com/de/gb

highdef

Indeedy, they dp - cells now seem to be firing up in a line inland from the south coast. A lot of CBs are now showing up on sat24, mainly from Tipp to Wicklow. Big cell now on radar just east of Clonmel and another has just appeared to the west. I would expect a lot more activity to appear from now on and through the evening. I'd say the sea breezes are playing a major part in their formation

maquiladora

Happy Anniversary?

fryup

Iancar29 wrote: »

First sight of cumulus in 2 weeks!!! Down here in Wexford

nimbocumulus :eek:

Elmer Blooker

something happening around the Waterford / Tipp border area.
http://www.sat24.com/de/gb

cml387

Rumbles just to the west of us started 5 minutes ago. No visible lightning

maquiladora

Yep, a couple of strikes recorded in south Tipp.

jimmynokia

Met eireann saying there will be thunder in the east coast, hopefully some sparks.

fryup

well folks what do you reckon... any T&L activity this week??

Iancar29

Shall Friday be d Cap buster?!?.... We can only wait and see!

hotwhiskey

1985!


ECM 2013



If you survived '85 or you missed it

Roll on 28 years later. Take Two!

Hopefully!

Iancar29

I wasn't born......

maquiladora

hotwhiskey wrote: »

1985!
If you survived '85 or you missed it

Roll on 28 years later. Take Two!

Hopefully!

This is an easier comparison :

1985 :



ECM :



ECM is showing the plume reaching further north than in 85. But it's FI and the exact placement of the cut off low or any other shallow lows will make big difference in terms of heat and storm potential etc.. It's not just all about the uppers. But the building blocks are there for an event, somewhere at least.

(ECM 192 precip.....could it be? )

Elmer Blooker

Iancar29 wrote: »

I wasn't born......

It was like this and I'm not exaggerating! I remember being too frightened to close a window because I didn't want to touch the metal handle.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=85169705

edit: when I think about there was some interesting weather around in the 80s, winter 81-2 - the BIG one, hot summers in 83 and 84, that storm in 85, the second coldest Feb of the 20th century and Hurricane Charley in 86, an epic Siberian blast in Jan 87, 88? nothing and a hot summer in 89.

RobertKK

I remember 1985 so well, as a child, lightening non stop, downpours, electricity gone, scared, mother had us all saying the rosary.

It was epic and as a child it was scary.

Duck's hoop

Now you mention it I do recall a lot of pretty cool thunder storms somewhere in the eighties. Must be '85.

Hurricane Charlie's tail was incredible! The things the rain did to the Avonmore River in Rathdrum were actually awesome. Bridges gone, massive boulders dragged hundreds of yards into fields, trees like stone dragged up from the bed after thousands of years. Bananas.

maquiladora

RobertKK wrote: »

I remember 1985 so well, as a child, lightening non stop, downpours, electricity gone, scared, mother had us all saying the rosary.

It was epic and as a child it was scary.

Yeah it was unbelievable. One of my earliest memories and etched into my brain forever...continuous lightning all along the horizon, like something you'd see in the tropics, just unbelievable, countless flashes. I've experienced a few severe storms since then but nothing has ever come even remotely close to that night.

maquiladora

Evelyn on the forecast after the 9 news talked about the risk of continental thunderstorms pushing up into Ireland from Monday of next week.

torrentum

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah it was unbelievable. One of my earliest memories and etched into my brain forever...continuous lightning all along the horizon, like something you'd see in the tropics, just unbelievable, countless flashes. I've experienced a few severe storms since then but nothing has ever come even remotely close to that night.

I agree, exactly my memory of the event too, also one of my earliest memories. Absolutely apocalyptic, non stop light and noise for
9 hours

Squeaksoutloud

85 is also one of my earliest memories also. I remember we all ended up sleeping in the hallway of the house away from the windows as we were scared! Iwas only 5 yet always have an abiding memory of that night...or two I think it was. For some reason I thought it was the norm for years after. It was hard to comprehend it was only the one time as opposed to normal summer weather! Little did I think I would have to wait another 28 years....potentially!!

robclay26

Anybody seen footage of the 85 storm?

delw

Any time there's a chance of a potential thunderstorm i always think of 85,i was a young teenager out & about when it started & something told me this was big so off home i went,classic night looking out the back window with the sky lighting up,good times ,lets hope if & when the breakdown arrives its a thundery one