Croke Park II preliminary Talks started today

kippy · 28-01-2013 12:45PM

jh79 wrote: »

It is not just the amount they earn, it is also whether it is a fair wage for the role they have in comparison where possible to the private sector. A premium on pay seems unfair when you consider the perks that come with being in the PS.

Rumours are a freeze in increments with cuts to those at the top of their scale according to the "week in politics".

These "perks" (I wouldnt define some as perks) are gonna be all but dead by 2015, and new entrants from the past few years have had vastly reduced starting wages and pension entitlements.

28-01-2013 12:52PM

kippy wrote: »

These "perks" (I wouldnt define some as perks) are gonna be all but dead by 2015, and new entrants from the past few years have had vastly reduced starting wages and pension entitlements.

Job security is a perk.

kippy · 28-01-2013 12:56PM

jh79 wrote: »

Job security is a perk.

Is it?

You don't think the job security side of it has been eroded over the past 4 years and will erode further over the next 3?

28-01-2013 01:34PM

kippy wrote: »

Is it?

You don't think the job security side of it has been eroded over the past 4 years and will erode further over the next 3?

Don't think there are many PS workers worried about losing their jobs in the future. Nothing to indicate that mass redundancies are on the cards. Can see pay cuts occurring every few years along with welfare cuts and tax increases but few compulsory redundancies.

kippy · 28-01-2013 01:51PM

jh79 wrote: »

Don't think there are many PS workers worried about losing their jobs in the future. Nothing to indicate that mass redundancies are on the cards. Can see pay cuts occurring every few years along with welfare cuts and tax increases but few compulsory redundancies.

Have you any idea why mass redundancies are not on the cards?
(There is a targeted redundancy scheme currently on going and apparently an option for compulsorary redundancies are on the table for CPA2.)
ie, job security will/is gone/

ballyharpat · 28-01-2013 01:52PM

P.S. If you could see the forest for the trees, why did you come back?
P.P.S. It is interesting to note the number of people who I know on here and outside who have come back from the US or Australia because the grass really wasn't greener or when things went wrong realised this wasn't such a bad place to be.

I could see the forest for the trees. I am from Ireland, was here until I was 21 then left. I never intended on staying away for good, just wanted to go away and get a different perspective of the world. I came back because I had bought a house here before I left. I rented it out when I was away. I saved my money, and because I could see the forest for the trees, I knew the place would be in the sh***er sooner or later, I didn't think it would be as bad as it is though. I knew house prices would drop and I would be able to buy another 1 or 2 properties and be able to work a low paying job and still live comfortably. I'll tell you though, if I didn't have savings/investments, there is no way I would/could live here.

I was making good money over and had at least another 12 months of good contracts lined up, but this is 'my' country, as much as anyone else who lives here, maybe if guys like you got out of here for a few years (preferably 50) it would be a better country and ye wouldn't be living in your own fantasy world..

28-01-2013 02:00PM

kippy wrote: »

Have you any idea why mass redundancies are not on the cards?
(There is a targeted redundancy scheme currently on going and apparently an option for compulsorary redundancies are on the table for CPA2.)
ie, job security will/is gone/

The unions given an option will go for pay cuts over redundancies. The option for compulsorary redundancies is targeted to those whose role serves no real purpose and who won't redeploy. Assuming more recent recruits were employed for a specific role I can't see any cause for worry re redundancies.

Compared to the private sector job security is still there, it may have been slightly eroded but it is still relatively secure.

MagicSean · 28-01-2013 02:03PM

K-9 wrote: »

Not really, they paid bubble prices for the house, its a wider issue than just wages and is more to do with debt and high mortgages. If an employee gets into mortage difficulty it isn't the HSE's problem for example.

Who are "they"? I didn't pay bubble prices for my house yet I would struggle a great deal with any more paycut. The only debt I have is a car loan. Can you be more specific with your "they"?

K-9 wrote: »

We aren't really dealing with your personal wish list though, we are talking about realistic options, or at least should be.

It seems your definition of "realistic" is basically to cut a percentage of the wage of people in the public sector across the board. That's not the only realistic option, it's just the lazy one. There are plenty of "realisitc" and much fairer options.

woodoo · 28-01-2013 02:16PM

Head The Wall wrote: »

Woodoo, it's obvious you don't understand increments. You think that everyone is worth the top of the scale but they just have to put in the time to get there and until then they are underpaid. What about the person that is crap and will never reach the top of their scale, of course this was never an issue before when pretty much everyone was "performing" above expectations.

Now when they start trying to actually make people earn their increments the PS seem to get very possessive of them. And that's leaving aside the fact that the country is running a multi Billion Euro Deficit..

I understand them perfectly well head the wall. Provided we satisfy the criteria set out in our contracts we are entitled to our interments

If someone is crap they shouldn't get them.

not yet · 28-01-2013 02:19PM

jh79 wrote: »

Don't think there are many PS workers worried about losing their jobs in the future. Nothing to indicate that mass redundancies are on the cards. Can see pay cuts occurring every few years along with welfare cuts and tax increases but few compulsory redundancies.

Oh I see, pay cuts every few years, That's nice for ya, Suppose you fall into the (we are borrowing to pay your wages brigade) How about a 10% cut every year for 10 years. Then we can all work for nothing....

I hope when we reach the end of the race to the bottom you like the country we have.

Godge · 28-01-2013 02:59PM

ballyharpat wrote: »

, maybe if guys like you got out of here for a few years (preferably 50) it would be a better country and ye wouldn't be living in your own fantasy world..

Funny that, I spent five years living abroad.

What do you mean by "guys like you"?

not yet · 28-01-2013 03:15PM

Godge wrote: »

Funny that, I spent five years living abroad.

What do you mean by "guys like you"?

Think he means all those greedy nasty teachers who suck the state dry, oh, and those wicked wicked nurses who care about nothing else only their pay packet.

Godge · 28-01-2013 03:29PM

not yet wrote: »

Think he means all those greedy nasty teachers who suck the state dry, oh, and those wicked wicked nurses who care about nothing else only their pay packet.

But I am not one of them.

sock puppet · 28-01-2013 03:33PM

not yet wrote: »

The 1 billion extra they are looking for in cp2 could be saved by creating jobs.

What? Are you seriously suggesting that you can create jobs and cuy spending at the same time, and that every government in the world is ignoring this solution because they want to be voted out of office?

not yet · 28-01-2013 03:40PM

sock puppet wrote: »

What? Are you seriously suggesting that you can create jobs and cuy spending at the same time, and that every government in the world is ignoring this solution because they want to be voted out of office?

It never fails to amaze me when people like sock muppet take a sentence and repost it to suit their agenda, Please post the FULL sentence.

not yet · 28-01-2013 03:43PM

not yet wrote: »

And thats all it is...keeping a section of of people happy, The 1 billion extra they are looking for in cp2 could be saved by creating jobs, and tackling the black economy. That's without fraud in the welfare system.

There ya go sock muppet, I've put the full sentence up for ya........

sock puppet · 28-01-2013 03:51PM

not yet wrote: »

It never fails to amaze me when people like sock muppet take a sentence and repost it to suit their agenda, Please post the FULL sentence.

Having re-read the post I'm guessing you meant the government should create jobs in areas to tackle the black economy so I took you up wrong.

Perhaps in future you could have a look back over your own ambiguously constructed sentences before blaming others?

28-01-2013 03:54PM

not yet wrote: »

Oh I see, pay cuts every few years, That's nice for ya, Suppose you fall into the (we are borrowing to pay your wages brigade) How about a 10% cut every year for 10 years. Then we can all work for nothing....

I hope when we reach the end of the race to the bottom you like the country we have.

explain how else the deficit is going to come down btw a 10% cut every year for 10 years doesn't lead to nothing!

road_high · 28-01-2013 04:02PM

jh79 wrote: »

explain how else the deficit is going to come down btw a 10% cut every year for 10 years doesn't lead to nothing!

...plus paying it all back with interest. Eddie Hobbs' figures with the National Debt are truly horrendous...went from €45 billion to €192 billion (and rising). €62 billion was bank debt but the rest is overspending by the state.
This is the bottom line, like it or not we cannot afford to go on to this extent.

Pappa Charlie · 28-01-2013 04:28PM

mfitzy wrote: »

...plus paying it all back with interest. Eddie Hobbs' figures with the National Debt are truly horrendous...went from €45 billion to €192 billion (and rising). €62 billion was bank debt but the rest is overspending by the state.
This is the bottom line, like it or not we cannot afford to go on to this extent.

Is that Eddie that was selling property abroad a few years ago and asking us all to borrow and invest cause we couldn't lose? No thanks Eddie for your figures

Godge · 28-01-2013 04:36PM

mfitzy wrote: »

...plus paying it all back with interest. Eddie Hobbs' figures with the National Debt are truly horrendous...went from €45 billion to €192 billion (and rising). €62 billion was bank debt but the rest is overspending by the state.
This is the bottom line, like it or not we cannot afford to go on to this extent.

Here we go again, the same doomsday scenario that has been played out for years and years that we cannot go on the way we are and massive huge cuts will be needed to get us back to where we need to be.

The facts are as follows: GGB needs to be 3% of GDP. In 2012 it is estimated that the GGB was €13.4 bn or 8.2% of GDP. That means we need to close the deficit by €8.5 bn to get to €4.9 bn as a 3% deficit is equal to that. for where I got my figures see below:

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/publications/meb2013/January2013.pdf

Assume 3% growth in nominal GDP per annum for 2013, 2014 and 2015, that the target budget deficit will be around €5.4 bn. The amount to be found is €8 bn. Now the first bit of good news. That figure does not include the adjustments made for 2013. These amount to €3.5bn as the Minister announced in the budget. By my calculations we therefore need to find €4.5 bn over the next two budgets. Now, to be fair the Minister thinks it is a little more than that.
http://budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2013/FinancialStatement.aspx

He puts the figure at €5.1 bn but then again maybe he is not as optimistic as I am about growth in nominal GDP or maybe he is allowing himself to announce next December or the following one how he is beating targets and things aren't as bad as we thought they would be. Either way, neither €4.5 bn or €5.1 bn over the next two budgets are unachievable. Why?

(1) Public service pay and pensions savings of €1 bn are to be found. Some €200m of this has already been identified according to a report I read at the weekend.
(2) The Minister was very clever in his speech, announcing a number of measures that will not have effect until 2014 or for which the full effects will not be felt until then. These include the new pension limits and the full year or property tax. See the details here but my quick calculation (could be a little off) resulted in savings over-and-above 2013 of €613m
http://budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2013/Documents/Summary%20of%202013%20Budget%20Measures%20Policy%20Changes.pdf

So with one leap (taking my figure) and assuming the public service pay element will deliver as it is predicted to do (and to be fair public service pay is the only major element of public expenditure on the way down), we are down from €4.5 bn to €2.9 bn.

Now one thing I have not included are the full year savings from any expenditure changes. These are very hard to extract from the expenditure statement but from what I could, they would only amount to around €100m, still though €0.1bn of the target. Let us leave that as extra safety net.

The question then becomes, where do you find €2.9 bn?
Well €50 off child benefit gives you €700m approx.
More action on tax reliefs could give you another €400m.

That is where it gets harder - finding the last €1.5 - €1.8 bn or so. Water charges anyone for some of it? Some more people in jobs paying taxes and less unemployment benefit would help but I can't help thinking there is one more shock in store for people but that is all.

To sum up: Difficult but not doomsday.

noodler · 28-01-2013 05:02PM

Godge wrote: »

The facts are as follows: GGB needs to be 3% of GDP. In 2012 it is estimated that the GGB was €13.4 bn or 8.2% of GDP. That means we need to close the deficit by €8.5 bn to get to €4.9 bn as a 3% deficit is equal to that. for where I got my figures see below:

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/publications/meb2013/January2013.pdf

Assume 3% growth in nominal GDP per annum for 2013, 2014 and 2015, that the target budget deficit will be around €5.4 bn.

It is worth noting that we have been assuming growth of 3% for the last three years and it hasn't materialised.

Given the mortgage arrears situation hitting 15% and showing only small signs of slowing there is a serious worry that consumer spending can make any positive contribution to GDP next year or the year after.

It is also worth noting that the our DoF forecasts are usually and currently more optimistic than that of other domestic or international forecasts.

Godge wrote: »

The amount to be found is €8 bn. Now the first bit of good news. That figure does not include the adjustments made for 2013. These amount to €3.5bn as the Minister announced in the budget.

The Exchequer balance will be 15.4bn at the end of 2013 - that is including the 2013 budget adjustments.

Godge wrote: »

He puts the figure at €5.1 bn but then again maybe he is not as optimistic as I am about growth in nominal GDP

I really admire your optimism.

Godge wrote: »

(1) Public service pay and pensions savings of €1 bn are to be found. Some €200m of this has already been identified according to a report I read at the weekend.

It will be a very tough sell to the troika that. I read the same Irish Times article and it regards the savings from the targets redundancy scheme. There is no source for the article but it does admit that the 200m saving per year will be overshadowed by the cost of the redundancy costs for the first two years.

Godge wrote: »

(2) The Minister was very clever in his speech, announcing a number of measures that will not have effect until 2014 or for which the full effects will not be felt until then. These include the new pension limits and the full year or property tax. See the details here but my quick calculation (could be a little off) resulted in savings over-and-above 2013 of €613m

250m for the pension change wrt to limits.

PRSI 32m

Property Tax (250m extra to be raised in 2014 with the full year)

I get 532m but the point is valid.

Godge wrote: »

So with one leap (taking my figure) and assuming the public service pay element will deliver as it is predicted to do (and to be fair public service pay is the only major element of public expenditure on the way down), we are down from €4.5 bn to €2.9 bn.

Mainly as a result of voluntary redundancies to be fair.

Godge wrote: »

Well €50 off child benefit gives you €700m approx.

Godge wrote: »

Some more people in jobs paying taxes and less unemployment benefit

Godge wrote: »

To sum up: Difficult but not doomsday.

That'll be doomsday to some.

Quite harsh to cry bloody murder over paycuts to PS salaries which average 45K a year and then callously suggest a straight 50e cut to CB with no thought of fairness.

Less unemployment benefit is also pretty vague. There will need to be something more targeted to seperate those who are not cooperating with the job search and those who are making genuine efforts.

But blanket cuts of 50e in CB and and unemployment benefit could be seriously difficult to sell in the current climate particularly if the inflation component of your nominal GDP forecasts turn out to be accurate.

Godge wrote: »

More action on tax reliefs could give you another €400m.

Kind of vague. I would probably agree if I knew which ones you were referring to.

Godge wrote: »

That is where it gets harder - finding the last €1.5 - €1.8 bn or so. Water charges anyone for some of it?

Water charges are earmarked for 2014 in some shape or form alright.

road_high · 28-01-2013 05:21PM

Pappa Charlie wrote: »

Is that Eddie that was selling property abroad a few years ago and asking us all to borrow and invest cause we couldn't lose? No thanks Eddie for your figures

They aren't Eddie's figures they are what the country owes. He was just telling it as it is. Satan himself could be delivering the figures and they wouldn't change one bit. No point shooting the messanger, it ain't gona change a thing.....If people don't want to except how far we are spending beyond on our means then I genuinely fear for the future of the country. It's beyond scary what we owe and are continuing to rack up.

ardmacha · 28-01-2013 05:24PM

It is worth noting that we have been assuming growth of 3% for the last three years and it hasn't materialised.

It is also worth noting that the our DoF forecasts are usually and currently more optimistic than that of other domestic or international forecasts.

IBEC state that nominal GDP growth was over 3% in 2012 and expect it to be over 3% in 2012

Pappa Charlie · 28-01-2013 05:35PM

mfitzy wrote: »

They aren't Eddie's figures they are what the country owes. He was just telling it as it is. Satan himself could be delivering the figures and they wouldn't change one bit. No point shooting the messanger, it ain't gona change a thing.....If people don't want to except how far we are spending beyond on our means then I genuinely fear for the future of the country. It's beyond scary what we owe and are continuing to rack up.

And your best solution is to cut public servants pay again! Get ready for strikes and let the government factor that into their budget, why not go to the people who causes this collaspe, private sector bankers and speculators, as usual the powerful elite in Europe pass the bill into the ordinary Joe soap and watch on while we go at each others throats with the blame game, people should join together as Irish citizens and get out onto the streets and demand action in Europe to ease the debt burden, Kenny is like a school boy going into the principals room any time I see in Europe. Get in a kick the ****ing table up in the air and like David Cameron threaten to leave and form an alliance with the UK! That might be a bit much for you to take in Mfitzy!

carpejugulum · 28-01-2013 05:37PM

Pappa Charlie wrote: »

Don't forget they bought houses of private sector speculators and developers and were given mortgages on the strenght og their wages so it is a wages issue!

So? Nobody forced them to do that.
If you can't handle personal finances, don't make big financial decisions. Or educate yourself.

road_high · 28-01-2013 05:48PM

Pappa Charlie wrote: »

And your best solution is to cut public servants pay again! Get ready for strikes and let the government factor that into their budget, why not go to the people who causes this collaspe, private sector bankers and speculators, as usual the powerful elite in Europe pass the bill into the ordinary Joe soap and watch on while we go at each others throats with the blame game, people should join together as Irish citizens and get out onto the streets and demand action in Europe to ease the debt burden, Kenny is like a school boy going into the principals room any time I see in Europe. Get in a kick the ****ing table up in the air and like David Cameron threaten to leave and form an alliance with the UK! That might be a bit much for you to take in Mfitzy!

This is like going around in circles....look I don't want to see anybodies wages cut but what I "want" and "reality" are very different things.
You can blame who you like but fact remains we are still running a very large deficit. i.e. we are taking in less than we are spending. The tax side is now almost exhausted so apart from continuing to borrow billions and kicking the can further down the road there is nothing we can do but trim the expenditure side. If you cannot except that reality well there's frankly just no point in debating the matter with you.

As for leaving the EU I won't even comment on how disasterous and ridiculous a prospect that is for Ireland. Only show in town and they are lending us billions to keep the show on the road basically.

ardmacha · 28-01-2013 05:50PM

mfitzy wrote:

but what I "want" and "reality" are very different things.

Well I think most of us can agree on that. What you want is indeed not reality.

road_high · 28-01-2013 05:55PM

ardmacha wrote: »

Well I think most of us can agree on that. What you want is indeed not reality.

That's nice....

Still not gona reduce our massive fiscal deficit though and daily spending over run on public expenditure.

Godge · 28-01-2013 05:57PM

noodler wrote: »

It is worth noting that we have been assuming growth of 3% for the last three years and it hasn't materialised..

Growth in nominal GDP in 2011 and 2012 will be close to 3%, remember that is economic growth plus inflation.

noodler wrote: »

Given the mortgage arrears situation hitting 15% and showing only small signs of slowing there is a serious worry that consumer spending can make any positive contribution to GDP next year or the year after.

It is also worth noting that the our DoF forecasts are usually and currently more optimistic than that of other domestic or international forecasts.
.

On the other hand, as pointed out in this thread many pages back, private sector employers are now awarding 2% pay increases so that should have some effect on the domestic economy. However, the forecasts for growth from the DoF or anyone else do not rely on growth in domestic consumption. Any boost from there would be a bonus.

noodler wrote: »

The Exchequer balance will be 15.4bn at the end of 2013 - that is including the 2013 budget adjustments.

.

Again, my understanding is that it is the GGB that matters for the Troika and Maastricht which is why I started from there.

noodler wrote: »

250m for the pension change wrt to limits.

PRSI 32m

Property Tax (250m extra to be raised in 2014 with the full year)

I get 532m but the point is valid.

.

there are a number of other changes in there when added together get to the figure mentioned.

noodler wrote: »

That'll be doomsday to some.

Quite harsh to cry bloody murder over paycuts to PS salaries which average 45K a year and then callously suggest a straight 50e cut to CB with no thought of fairness.

Less unemployment benefit is also pretty vague. There will need to be something more targeted to seperate those who are not cooperating with the job search and those who are making genuine efforts.

But blanket cuts of 50e in CB and and unemployment benefit could be seriously difficult to sell in the current climate particularly if the inflation component of your nominal GDP forecasts turn out to be accurate.

Water charges are earmarked for 2014 in some shape or form alright.

I was making the point illustratively that the problem isn't as difficult as one might think. Even if you leave out my two examples the figure of €2.9 bn to be found over two years means we are most of the way there with the measures already announced and/or in place.

The number of unemployment claimants is beginning to shrink whether as a result of more employment or emigration or people losing benefits. Either way, and while we would all prefer it to be as a result of more jobs, any cut in the numbers claiming will be a saving.

The overall point of my post is that it is pointless to have people on here rabbiting on about €15bn being borrowed every year to pay the public service when the gap in public finances is somewhere in the region of €3-5 bn depending on which assumptions you use about future savings from the public service, future growth in nominal GDP etc.

Croke Park II preliminary Talks started today

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