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LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

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    #4262
    Spindle
    Registered Users Posts: 500 ✭✭✭Spindle


    compsys wrote: »
    Because we'll get stuck in a mild pool of air in the middle of it all! Seriously, half the GFS runs last night were showing an Azores high trying to build up over the country. It would sicken you.

    Anyway, if Met E says rain then I believe them folks. They're the professionals. And while they do sometimes get it wrong, they usually get it right, especially in situations like this.

    As much as I love snow too, this places sometimes feels like a ramping board, as opposed to a thread, and people's forecasts of snow are usually wildly optimistic and based on ridiculously implausible situations that simply won't come to pass based on simple weather facts.

    Anyway, we live in hope. But if half of Europe is in the freezer and we're still stuck with mild muck, I don't think it bodes well.

    By the law of averages, the longer Europe remains in blow average temperatures that fail to reach here than the more likely it is that we'll miss out on this cold spell. Europe is going to start warming up eventually (to more seasonal temps).

    Not saying that it will snow, just pointing out all the potential is around us, just need a push in the right direction and we are in.

    Of course we could just be here in March saying how did we not get any snow.

    Fun times ahead what ever way it pans out, have never seen a situation like what we have now.


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    #4263
    dacogawa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,838 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    All the people getting off the rollercoaster will be back as soon as the 12h moves this east 100 miles...

    gfs-1-90.png?6

    But it probably wont, let's hope M.T. gets it on the nose & things turn around the last week in Jan


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    #4264
    dopolahpec
    Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    Spindle wrote: »
    Not saying that it will snow, just pointing out all the potential is around us, just need a push in the right direction and we are in.

    Of course we could just be here in March saying how did we not get any snow.

    Fun times ahead what ever way it pans out, have never seen a situation like what we have now.

    It only pans out one way. I have seen this situation before http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=154420


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    #4265
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,496 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    I'm staying on... there is loads of potential there .. very marginal I will admit, but its always the case in Ireland... I think it was November 2010,
    The 8 am ME said it would be rain... I spent two hours getting home at 4 pm that evening ..
    Not met bashing, just saying how close these things can be.


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    #4266
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    icesnowfrost wrote: »
    Not looking good for snow this winter is it.


    :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Calm down, put the toys back in the pram, after all the swings the last few weeks you would think some in here would know better

    This winter will deliver , you cant write it off because were not getting it now , the margins were very fine , our time will come, I hope a really good cold pool builds up in the UK as this will aid our cause ,

    A bit like the cold pool on the continent has aided the UK's cause ,

    got down to -13 last night over some of the snowfields in the UK

    Just to show how close we were :pac:

    post-2026-0-55916600-1358332763_thumb.png post-2026-0-97313100-1358332777_thumb.png


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    #4267
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    The GFS still shows snowfall possible in Ireland from the weekend to early next week.

    It's only one model and could easily downgrade. But thats what it is still showing at the moment. We'll see how things look on the 12Z.

    I'm not a fan of these charts but its a simple way of showing what I'm saying.

    13012206_1606.gif


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    #4268
    Inquitus
    Registered Users Posts: 13,748 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Spindle wrote: »
    have never seen a situation like what we have now.

    It's grey and raining!


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    #4269
    Eastcoastryan
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 197 ✭✭Eastcoastryan


    maquiladora wrote: »
    The GFS still shows snowfall possible in Ireland from the weekend to early next week.

    It's only one model and could easily downgrade. But thats what it is still showing at the moment. We'll see how things look on the 12Z.

    I'm not a fan of these charts but its a simple way of showing what I'm saying.

    13012206_1606.gif


    was there any snow potential for Sunday/Monday on this mornings ECM or UKMO?


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    #4270
    gbee
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    This winter will deliver ,

    Not looking likely at all now, best guess is a snowy Spring.


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    #4271
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Eastcoastryan wrote: »


    was there any snow potential for Sunday/Monday on this mornings ECM or UKMO?

    On the ECM, yes. Not sure with the UKMO.


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    #4272
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    gbee wrote: »
    Not looking likely at all now, best guess is a snowy Spring.


    Where you getting that from ?


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    #4273
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users Posts: 9,011 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    I am with PP on this.

    We will get something, I am still expecting a big pattern change at some stage


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    #4274
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    gbee wrote: »

    Not looking likely at all now, best guess is a snowy Spring.

    Is this serious or a joke post? The models can't even get 4 days ahead right at the moment.

    Some bizarre stuff being posted here today!


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    #4275
    gbee
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Where you getting that from ?

    Each system is pushed back in time, we will run out of Winter here and the next expected bad wintry weather will arrive in Spring.


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    #4276
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users Posts: 9,011 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Is this serious or a joke post? The models can't even get 4 days ahead right at the moment.

    Some bizarre stuff being posted here today!

    Im sitting back and laughing :pac:


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    #4277
    mrweatherman
    Registered Users Posts: 116 ✭✭mrweatherman


    But has any one had a look at metcheck for dublin and kildare for monday are going with heavy snow sunday night- monday morning and then shows on and off!!!


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    #4278
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,136 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    maquiladora wrote: »
    The GFS still shows snowfall possible in Ireland from the weekend to early next week.

    It's only one model and could easily downgrade. But thats what it is still showing at the moment. We'll see how things look on the 12Z.

    I'm not a fan of these charts but its a simple way of showing what I'm saying.

    13012206_1606.gif


    Agree 100%. Met E are dead right to say it will rain on Friday. As for Sunday into Monday, that is a very unusual set up for Ireland - the cold uppers are coming from the west with the front. By any analysis of present charts those uppers will be -4 or -5. They could well be -6 to -8. Given heavy convection that has a real, real chance of falling as snow given, according to the 6z GFS, the 2m temps at midnight will be -1 to 2, the dam line will be sub 528 and given dew points will be -2 (in Cork of all places!) to 1.

    Its not unrealistic in those circumstances to say theres a half decent possibility of snow. I'd say its a 30% shot that some places below 200m will get snow.

    And if I'm wrong, happily I'm off to the Alps the following Saturday!


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    #4279
    dak
    Registered Users Posts: 2,577 ✭✭✭dak


    http://www.snowmakers.com/puma-snowmaker.html

    Just Ordered 10,000 of these to be placed strategically around Ireland ...should be switched on on Sunday !


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    #4280
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,540 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    GFS 06z ensembles for Dublin, operational rarely below the mean for what its worth.

    t850Dublin.png


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    #4281
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    Agree 100%. Met E are dead right to say it will rain on Friday. As for Sunday into Monday, that is a very unusual set up for Ireland - the cold uppers are coming from the west with the front. By any analysis of present charts those uppers will be -4 or -5. They could well be -6 to -8. Given heavy convection that has a real, real chance of falling as snow given, according to the 6z GFS, the 2m temps at midnight will be -1 to 2, the dam line will be sub 528 and given dew points will be -2 (in Cork of all places!) to 1.

    Its not unrealistic in those circumstances to say theres a half decent possibility of snow. I'd say its a 30% shot that some places below 200m will get snow.

    And if I'm wrong, happily I'm off to the Alps the following Saturday!

    I agree With You and Maq , no snow really for friday now but the weekend is still definitely looking interesting for many!

    Dew points are of my only concern when any precip does make its way across. But atm i think Met Eireann where a bit off by not even mentioning a risk for this weekend. Don't worry folks.... youll be all back on ur seats snug and comfy when the 12z comes out... :cool::pac:


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    #4282
    dopolahpec
    Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    gbee wrote: »
    Not looking likely at all now, best guess is a snowy Spring.


    Agreed, and this will be the hardest one ever to stomach, as the UK is about to get annihilated in a way not seen for maybe 20 years. The models are correcting back and forward now for a few days, but always oscillating that little bit west, but then that little bit more east. Massive downgrades for the republic and northern ireland this morning from both the met eireann and british weather services.

    I cannot see the push coming westward now. Our only real hope, for this weekend's event that is, seems to be a vigorous cold push from the west, very unusual I know.


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    #4283
    odyboody
    Registered Users Posts: 179 ✭✭odyboody


    Has anybody come across examples of a low with embedded cold coming in off the Atlantic? Do the models and met services know what the outcome of these situations are?


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    #4284
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    gbee wrote: »
    Each system is pushed back in time, we will run out of Winter here and the next expected bad wintry weather will arrive in Spring.


    The system has not been pushed back in time , its still arriving but we just seem to be on the milder side of the boundary when the UK is not


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    #4285
    dopolahpec
    Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    A few days ago when anyone mentioned Ireland on Netweather they were shut down for 'IMBY' posts, now the tone has changed to the maganimous condescending pity of those who have it all. 'Ah yeah might get something yet my Irish friends' A bad sign ha ha


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    #4286
    Dead_Rabbits
    Closed Accounts Posts: 163 ✭✭Dead_Rabbits


    To those posting no snow till spring I really believe ye will be sick looking at the stuff by March, we have just reached mid meteorological winter so buckle up shes gonna be a slippery ride!


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    #4287
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Iancar29 wrote: »

    I agree With You and Maq , no snow really for friday now but the weekend is still definitely looking interesting for many!

    Dew points are of my only concern when any precip does make its way across. But atm i think Met Eireann where a bit off by not even mentioning a risk for this weekend. Don't worry folks.... youll be all back on ur seats snug and comfy when the 12z comes out... :cool::pac:

    I think the reason the Met Eireann outlook for the weekend doeen't mention any risk of snow is due to their models not showing as much potential as the GFS does. Models are changing a bit in the short term on every run and when its marginal those changes make all the difference. So its quite possible that the GFS is wrong and will downgrade chances further, but until that happens there is still a chance at least is it right.

    Beyond a few days, every model has been all over the place recently, so thats impossible to call.


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    #4288
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    dopolahpec wrote: »
    Agreed, and this will be the hardest one ever to stomach, as the UK is about to get annihilated in a way not seen for maybe 20 years. The models are correcting back and forward now for a few days, but always oscillating that little bit west, but then that little bit more east. Massive downgrades for the republic and northern ireland this morning from both the met eireann and british weather services.

    I cannot see the push coming westward now. Our only real hope, for this weekend's event that is, seems to be a vigorous cold push from the west, very unusual I know.


    I dont know how people seem to missing this ! BUT ITS BETTER FOR US IF THE UK HAS A COLD POOL OVER IT !


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    #4289
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Dead_Rabbits wrote: »
    shes gonna be a slippery ride!

    ... :eek:

    :pac:


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    #4290
    fontenoy7
    Registered Users Posts: 159 ✭✭fontenoy7


    dopolahpec wrote: »
    Agreed, and this will be the hardest one ever to stomach, as the UK is about to get annihilated in a way not seen for maybe 20 years. The models are correcting back and forward now for a few days, but always oscillating that little bit west, but then that little bit more east. Massive downgrades for the republic and northern ireland this morning from both the met eireann and british weather services.

    I cannot see the push coming westward now. Our only real hope, for this weekend's event that is, seems to be a vigorous cold push from the west, very unusual I know.

    Get a grip!! If it snows in South West England you can be sure it will snow in the east and North of Ireland.


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    #4291
    tylercollins
    Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    I'm starting to lose all hope for this winter now. I'm sick of being buttered up by the charts to be at the last minute bent over and literally shafted! If I don't get some soon, I'm going to start looking forward to "Summer" for some NLCs and some heat, and not forgetting a few thunderstorms thrown into the mix.


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