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Christmas 2012 Weather Thread

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13

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    #62
    NeVeR
    Registered Users Posts: 5,325 ✭✭✭NeVeR


    droidman123 wrote: »
    it is not possible to correctly predict the weather for ireland beyond 2-3 days at most,.

    I was thinking and talking about this today....

    What the point in having a 5 / 7 / 10 day forecast when 90% of the time they are completely wrong.

    It's just guess work lol


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    #63
    droidman123
    Registered Users Posts: 5,438 ✭✭✭droidman123


    exactly!!! and then we have a guy on here giving updates on the weather forecast for a different country!!! weather predictions are confusing enough!!


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    #64
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    No real sign at all of a white christmas. Feed your money to a good cause like the Vincent De Paul instead of a Bookies this christmas. !


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    #65
    Dotsie~tmp
    Registered Users Posts: 1,427 ✭✭✭Dotsie~tmp


    Dollymount Dec 25 2012
    20091223_australia.jpeg


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    #66
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    happy new year! (warning live image so will change!)

    Rtavn3841.png


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    #67
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,908 ✭✭✭pauldry


    So far 8 or 9c on Christmas Day looks the forecast with showers.

    Could work out 6 or 7c but no sign of 2 or 3c at present


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    #68
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,136 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    droidman123 wrote: »
    exactly!!! and then we have a guy on here giving updates on the weather forecast for a different country!!! weather predictions are confusing enough!!

    Thanks for your, er, constructive posts. i post from those websites as they are the geographically nearest Christmas forecasts online from November. You seem a helpful sort though so feel free to post your own for Ireland. I look forward to them.


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    #69
    droidman123
    Registered Users Posts: 5,438 ✭✭✭droidman123


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    Thanks for your, er, constructive posts. i post from those websites as they are the geographically nearest Christmas forecasts online from November. You seem a helpful sort though so feel free to post your own for Ireland. I look forward to them.
    didnt mean to be obtrusive, but i just cnt understand why anyone would post comments about the weatherforecast for the uk, what is the relevance? i could post weather trending for,say, tunisia,but its not really relevent to this country.


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    #70
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,908 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Tunisia will be dry and warm this Christmas.. meanwhile the models are trying to mix something cooler for Christmas to get us excited (dont fall for it or do its your choice)


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    #71
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,136 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    droidman123 wrote: »
    didnt mean to be obtrusive, but i just cnt understand why anyone would post comments about the weatherforecast for the uk, what is the relevance? i could post weather trending for,say, tunisia,but its not really relevent to this country.

    Yes, the weather 100 miles to our East, and indeed 50 miles to our north (for NI is part of the UK) is indeed of the same relevance as northern Africa. Mea culpa


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    #72
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    pauldry wrote: »
    Tunisia will be dry and warm this Christmas.. meanwhile the models are trying to mix something cooler for Christmas to get us excited (dont fall for it or do its your choice)

    Well, according to the ECM, the 850 temps just off the southwest coast of Ireland on Dec 23rd will be the same as those over Tunisia.

    ECM0-168.GIF?16-0

    Don't forget to leave out the mince pies & factor 15 for Santa!

    SantaBeach.gif


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    #73
    droidman123
    Registered Users Posts: 5,438 ✭✭✭droidman123


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    Yes, the weather 100 miles to our East, and indeed 50 miles to our north (for NI is part of the UK) is indeed of the same relevance as northern Africa. Mea culpa
    ok i,ll try simplify this, is it possible to keep us up to date with the weather forecast for ireland ( the country we reside in) for christmas? i never meant to rattle any cages, i just couldnt understand why the uk weather forecast was being posted here. its not uncommon in winter and summer for the uk tempertures to differentiate between 10-15 degrees compared to ireland. 10-15 degrees is a huge difference in weather terms as i,m sure you know. no offence was intended. happy christmas to you : )


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    #74
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,136 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    droidman123 wrote: »
    ok i,ll try simplify this, is it possible to keep us up to date with the weather forecast for ireland ( the country we reside in) for christmas? i never meant to rattle any cages, i just couldnt understand why the uk weather forecast was being posted here. its not uncommon in winter and summer for the uk tempertures to differentiate between 10-15 degrees compared to ireland. 10-15 degrees is a huge difference in weather terms as i,m sure you know. no offence was intended. happy christmas to you : )

    Fair enough. Sorry if I was being a touch sensitive. As I said I use the two UK websites as I am unaware of Irish equivalents. Nor am I very knowledgeable so I am afraid all I can do is parrot other's views. Whilst quoting UK weather forecasts for Christmas day might look silly on 17 December, this thread started on 1 November and it made sense then. At that range all you are looking at is trends so UK trends are virtually the same as Irish. Anyway, happy Christmas!


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    #75
    Birdnuts
    Registered Users Posts: 9,652 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    The odds on a white Chrismas must have gone off the page by now - looking at least as mild as last Christmas with no sign of any seasonal weather this side of the new year.


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    #76
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    The eastern half of England is DRAMATICALLY different to Ireland in terms of weather. Wales would be the only broadly similar bit. Something forecast for the strip from London to Edinburgh is frankly irrelevant to us most of the time.


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    #77
    whitebriar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭whitebriar


    Not wanting to be a harbinger of bad news but to my eyes,synoptically,the set up now is significantly WORSE than the spell we were hoping for last february.
    So nothing coming now but cold rain,showers and wind misery.

    Into the new year,who knows,keep glued I suppose.


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    #78
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,136 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    The eastern half of England is DRAMATICALLY different to Ireland in terms of weather. Wales would be the only broadly similar bit. Something forecast for the strip from London to Edinburgh is frankly irrelevant to us most of the time.

    Agreed. All I was saying is that broadbrush guidance on Christmas weather / temps for the UK (Inc. NI and Wales) given in November is some guidance also for what we might expect here (to the extent that guidance that far out is useful at all!). Painfully aware that the weather in North Scotland and South East England differs more than a tad from the fare we receive down here in the Costa Del Cork....

    Anyway this thread is supposed to be a bit of fun - I'll let the technical thread be the place for such heavyweight discussions amongst those of ye who know your onions!

    Alas, back to the Christmas forecast. Just looked at the 0z ECM and its not half as mild as is being painted here. Looks like avg Irish temps in Dec to me (ca. 8/9c daytime). Thats not very mild. Also there is still scope for that be be modelled much colder (and yes, much milder too..) as there are occasional brief cold northerly incursions modelled over the next two weeks.


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    #79
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »

    Anyway this thread is supposed to be a bit of fun .

    Agreed. :)


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    #80
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,908 ✭✭✭pauldry


    this is what BBC weather are saying

    Monday 24 December—Sunday 30 December

    A 'wet' rather than 'white' Christmas most likely

    There is a reasonable degree of agreement from various computer models that the unsettled theme will continue through the festive period. Rain, heavy at times, will be blown in by strong winds with a risk of gales. Temperatures are likely to be on the mild side, especially overnight, but perhaps turning a bit colder between Christmas and New Year.
    This forecast is however still subject to change, and there is the possibility of some rather colder and more wintry weather at times.


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    #81
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,772 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    0z GFS this morning indicating the possibility of some colder/wintry weather for Christmas Eve and Day.


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    #82
    snaps
    Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    0z GFS this morning indicating the possibility of some colder/wintry weather for Christmas Eve and Day.
    then look at ecm, completely different!


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    #83
    droidman123
    Registered Users Posts: 5,438 ✭✭✭droidman123


    this is exactly my point, long term to mid trem weather forecasting is completely pointless. i used to check weather forecasting sites before i went away on holiday, only 2 weeks in advance, 4-5 weather sites, and they would all be completely different. i dont waste my time any more, i just check the day before i go, and even sometimes they are totally wrong!:mad:


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    #84
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,772 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    0z GFS this morning indicating the possibility of some colder/wintry weather for Christmas Eve and Day.

    Gone again on the 06z. :p


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    #85
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,856 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    13C nailed on for Christmas Day, ideal, perfect for any driving and leave the woollies at home for the morning walk. the best outcome we could have got


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    #86
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,772 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    13C nailed on for Christmas Day...

    Where did you get that from? Weatherwise, a week is very long way away! :)


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    #87
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,522 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    13C nailed on for Christmas Day, ideal, perfect for any driving and leave the woollies at home for the morning walk. the best outcome we could have got

    :pac: Nailed on, you trying to jinx it ;)


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    #88
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Forecast by Met to be 'up to' 13c on Saturday, I doubt that will hold steady till christmas day though.


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    #89
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,522 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Latest GFS showing a cooler north westerly, still T144 though. This time tomorrow can start posting in the 0-120 hours thread :)

    h850t850eu.png


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    #90
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Things are starting to look interesting.

    Snow on Christmas Day may not be out of the realm of possibility, espically on high ground. After the 25th it's even more possible.

    4TJzH.gif


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    #91
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,149 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Things are starting to look interesting.

    Snow on Christmas Day may not be out of the realm of possibility, espically on high ground. After the 25th it's even more possible.

    4TJzH.gif

    Are we in a better position for cold than our neighbours? They don't sound too optimistic re their chances.


This discussion has been closed.
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