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Christmas 2012 Weather Thread

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,174 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Well the bookies think it will be a white xmas!

    http://www.independent.ie/weather/let-it-snow-odds-on-white-christmas-cut-after-flurry-of-bets-3323229.html

    The odd are very poor at 5/2 for dublin anyway. 25/1 that the m50 will close!
    It didnt even close during Dec 2010, and it was covered in a few inches of compacted snow then.
    7/1 for galway might be an ok bet.

    They are hilariously bad odds. Usually a White Christmas means it must snow on the day itself - so even lying snow wont do. Over the last ten years there have probably been 15 days when it snowed in Dublin, in Cork that figure is about 4! In Cork we've had one white Christmas (ie. it snowed on the day) in the last 25 years (2004). I'm not sure when Dublin had its last white Christmas (2009 and 2010 were not white Christmases in the classical sense). Not sure about Galway either.

    Even if cold was reliably forecast for 25 Dec (its presently not), odds shorter than 10-1 for even Dublin would be unappealing, but 5-2!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,321 ✭✭✭snowstreams


    Youre right, I forgot that snow has to actually fall on the day. That increases the odds a lot. Does freezing rain count!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    dexter647 wrote: »
    Couldn't agree more as the Ec 32 if i remember correctly was predicting, last month, a December of Atlantic blocking.Short term yes not looking good but as we all know a lot can happen and change in 14 days in the world of weather. At least now we a very nice cold pool to our east waiting to to be tapped into:)

    There is lots of northern blocking in place like it predicted , its just were not in the rite spot again for it to benefit us ,

    Anyway I am still hopeful enough for some decent cold this winter even if it does not land in time for Christmas , Mt has me looking at the bigger picture !


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,047 ✭✭✭Cosmo Kramer


    Well the bookies think it will be a white xmas!

    http://www.independent.ie/weather/let-it-snow-odds-on-white-christmas-cut-after-flurry-of-bets-3323229.html

    The odd are very poor at 5/2 for dublin anyway. 25/1 that the m50 will close!
    It didnt even close during Dec 2010, and it was covered in a few inches of compacted snow then.
    7/1 for galway might be an ok bet.

    I think lazy journalists save this article to use at about this time every year. I wonder has there ever been a 'bookies increase odds of a white christmas' headline instead of the usual 'bookie SLASH odds...' crap we usually see printed.?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 177 ✭✭eddiem10


    t|nt|n wrote: »
    Unwelcome developments indeed !

    Nothing worse than a mild mucky xmas day, ugh :mad::(

    Well, not been able to drive and spend Christmas Day with your family is worse.... In my opinion. (Christmas 2010)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,250 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Its still not completely out of the question though for it to snow on Christmas day.

    A cold day on Christmas Eve followed by a chilly night could bring some wintry showers and at least the ground will be partially white Christmas morning after which who cares if it melts for Mass and the pss up after.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,174 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Netweather's latest is below. Alas TWO's latest is 3 days out of date so I won't bother with it.

    Lots of confusion re 21 to 25 December on the models. You can find everything from hurricanes to +6 uppers to -8 uppers. Somebody posted a CFS chart today on another thread showing -8 uppers from an easterly outbreak over virtually the whole country on Christmas Eve. I'd reluctantly take that... Alas more reliable (if such things exist!) models say otherwise.

    Anyway, here it goes...

    "Netweather Christmas Forecast 2012
    Christmas Weather 2012 - Will It Be A White Christmas? - Forecast Updated Tuesday 11th December

    Christmas Countdown:
    13 days to go! 2 weeks to go! The organised among us will be sitting pretty having done all the shopping and half the wrapping by now, whereas people like me will be starting to panic a little and be looking forward to the annual Xmas eve dash around the shops for last minute bits and pieces that have been forgotten.

    The weather is in a similar poorly organised state as well, it's cold right now but milder, wetter weather is on the way later this week and with the days ticking down toward Christmas it'll be a bit of a race against time if we're to see a change back to something more seasonal for the big day.

    http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/images/winter/xmas2012/ens-xmas1.png

    The chart above is from the GFS ensembles, and without getting into techie details is showing a range of possible scenarios for Christmas day. As before, the blue colour needs to be over the UK for a chance of snow, and as you'll see there aren't too many of those mini maps showing that.

    This isn't to say it's out of the question at this point as there are some indications that colder weather has a chance of making a comeback in time for Christmas, but even with just a couple of weeks to go there's a lot of uncertainty.

    If you're hoping for a white Christmas though, now may be a good time to get working on a snow dances (maybe do a rain dance with a Santa hat on?) to help it along! .
    .."


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,174 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Just a quick update. Odds still stacked against cold (certainly white) Christmas, BUT things look a little better than a few days ago for coldes. The ECM for the last two runs (with sometime agreement from the GFS) shows the cold to the east making its way westwards over these Islands around 23 Dec - though only really touching Ireland before the atlantic makes a return. Suffice it to say that if the ECM is generally right, and if the cold moves 100 miles further west (yes, thats two big "ifs" I appreciate), then we could be suckin' diesel yet!

    Netweather (there, I said it) have a Christmas update coming out later today which I will try to post....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,547 ✭✭✭droidman123


    Netweather's latest is below. Alas TWO's latest is 3 days out of date so I won't bother with it.

    Lots of confusion re 21 to 25 December on the models. You can find everything from hurricanes to +6 uppers to -8 uppers. Somebody posted a CFS chart today on another thread showing -8 uppers from an easterly outbreak over virtually the whole country on Christmas Eve. I'd reluctantly take that... Alas more reliable (if such things exist!) models say otherwise.

    Anyway, here it goes...

    "Netweather Christmas Forecast 2012
    Christmas Weather 2012 - Will It Be A White Christmas? - Forecast Updated Tuesday 11th December

    Christmas Countdown:
    13 days to go! 2 weeks to go! The organised among us will be sitting pretty having done all the shopping and half the wrapping by now, whereas people like me will be starting to panic a little and be looking forward to the annual Xmas eve dash around the shops for last minute bits and pieces that have been forgotten.

    The weather is in a similar poorly organised state as well, it's cold right now but milder, wetter weather is on the way later this week and with the days ticking down toward Christmas it'll be a bit of a race against time if we're to see a change back to something more seasonal for the big day.

    http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/images/winter/xmas2012/ens-xmas1.png

    The chart above is from the GFS ensembles, and without getting into techie details is showing a range of possible scenarios for Christmas day. As before, the blue colour needs to be over the UK for a chance of snow, and as you'll see there aren't too many of those mini maps showing that.

    This isn't to say it's out of the question at this point as there are some indications that colder weather has a chance of making a comeback in time for Christmas, but even with just a couple of weeks to go there's a lot of uncertainty.

    If you're hoping for a white Christmas though, now may be a good time to get working on a snow dances (maybe do a rain dance with a Santa hat on?) to help it along! ..."
    correct me if i am wrong,but arnt most contributers here from ireland? why do you keep giving updates on the uk weather????


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,547 ✭✭✭droidman123


    it is not possible to correctly predict the weather for ireland beyond 2-3 days at most, unless there are circumstances like a high pressure sitting over us. i watch those half wits on the rte weather time and time again getting it totally wrong, its hilairious to see!! but in fairness, all other forecasters are laughably wrong 99% of the time as well, as for that postman chancer in donegal.....cant believe people actually take heed of his predictions.haha his latest forecast back in late october was that we were supposed to be up to our goolies in snow by the end of november....ahhhh i,m sure he is a nice man though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,356 ✭✭✭NeVeR


    it is not possible to correctly predict the weather for ireland beyond 2-3 days at most,.

    I was thinking and talking about this today....

    What the point in having a 5 / 7 / 10 day forecast when 90% of the time they are completely wrong.

    It's just guess work lol


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,547 ✭✭✭droidman123


    exactly!!! and then we have a guy on here giving updates on the weather forecast for a different country!!! weather predictions are confusing enough!!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    No real sign at all of a white christmas. Feed your money to a good cause like the Vincent De Paul instead of a Bookies this christmas. !


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,427 ✭✭✭Dotsie~tmp


    Dollymount Dec 25 2012
    20091223_australia.jpeg


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    happy new year! (warning live image so will change!)

    Rtavn3841.png


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,250 ✭✭✭pauldry


    So far 8 or 9c on Christmas Day looks the forecast with showers.

    Could work out 6 or 7c but no sign of 2 or 3c at present


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,174 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    exactly!!! and then we have a guy on here giving updates on the weather forecast for a different country!!! weather predictions are confusing enough!!

    Thanks for your, er, constructive posts. i post from those websites as they are the geographically nearest Christmas forecasts online from November. You seem a helpful sort though so feel free to post your own for Ireland. I look forward to them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,547 ✭✭✭droidman123


    Thanks for your, er, constructive posts. i post from those websites as they are the geographically nearest Christmas forecasts online from November. You seem a helpful sort though so feel free to post your own for Ireland. I look forward to them.
    didnt mean to be obtrusive, but i just cnt understand why anyone would post comments about the weatherforecast for the uk, what is the relevance? i could post weather trending for,say, tunisia,but its not really relevent to this country.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,250 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Tunisia will be dry and warm this Christmas.. meanwhile the models are trying to mix something cooler for Christmas to get us excited (dont fall for it or do its your choice)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,174 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    didnt mean to be obtrusive, but i just cnt understand why anyone would post comments about the weatherforecast for the uk, what is the relevance? i could post weather trending for,say, tunisia,but its not really relevent to this country.

    Yes, the weather 100 miles to our East, and indeed 50 miles to our north (for NI is part of the UK) is indeed of the same relevance as northern Africa. Mea culpa


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    pauldry wrote: »
    Tunisia will be dry and warm this Christmas.. meanwhile the models are trying to mix something cooler for Christmas to get us excited (dont fall for it or do its your choice)

    Well, according to the ECM, the 850 temps just off the southwest coast of Ireland on Dec 23rd will be the same as those over Tunisia.

    ECM0-168.GIF?16-0

    Don't forget to leave out the mince pies & factor 15 for Santa!

    SantaBeach.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,547 ✭✭✭droidman123


    Yes, the weather 100 miles to our East, and indeed 50 miles to our north (for NI is part of the UK) is indeed of the same relevance as northern Africa. Mea culpa
    ok i,ll try simplify this, is it possible to keep us up to date with the weather forecast for ireland ( the country we reside in) for christmas? i never meant to rattle any cages, i just couldnt understand why the uk weather forecast was being posted here. its not uncommon in winter and summer for the uk tempertures to differentiate between 10-15 degrees compared to ireland. 10-15 degrees is a huge difference in weather terms as i,m sure you know. no offence was intended. happy christmas to you : )


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,174 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    ok i,ll try simplify this, is it possible to keep us up to date with the weather forecast for ireland ( the country we reside in) for christmas? i never meant to rattle any cages, i just couldnt understand why the uk weather forecast was being posted here. its not uncommon in winter and summer for the uk tempertures to differentiate between 10-15 degrees compared to ireland. 10-15 degrees is a huge difference in weather terms as i,m sure you know. no offence was intended. happy christmas to you : )

    Fair enough. Sorry if I was being a touch sensitive. As I said I use the two UK websites as I am unaware of Irish equivalents. Nor am I very knowledgeable so I am afraid all I can do is parrot other's views. Whilst quoting UK weather forecasts for Christmas day might look silly on 17 December, this thread started on 1 November and it made sense then. At that range all you are looking at is trends so UK trends are virtually the same as Irish. Anyway, happy Christmas!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    The odds on a white Chrismas must have gone off the page by now - looking at least as mild as last Christmas with no sign of any seasonal weather this side of the new year.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    The eastern half of England is DRAMATICALLY different to Ireland in terms of weather. Wales would be the only broadly similar bit. Something forecast for the strip from London to Edinburgh is frankly irrelevant to us most of the time.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭whitebriar


    Not wanting to be a harbinger of bad news but to my eyes,synoptically,the set up now is significantly WORSE than the spell we were hoping for last february.
    So nothing coming now but cold rain,showers and wind misery.

    Into the new year,who knows,keep glued I suppose.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,174 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    The eastern half of England is DRAMATICALLY different to Ireland in terms of weather. Wales would be the only broadly similar bit. Something forecast for the strip from London to Edinburgh is frankly irrelevant to us most of the time.

    Agreed. All I was saying is that broadbrush guidance on Christmas weather / temps for the UK (Inc. NI and Wales) given in November is some guidance also for what we might expect here (to the extent that guidance that far out is useful at all!). Painfully aware that the weather in North Scotland and South East England differs more than a tad from the fare we receive down here in the Costa Del Cork....

    Anyway this thread is supposed to be a bit of fun - I'll let the technical thread be the place for such heavyweight discussions amongst those of ye who know your onions!

    Alas, back to the Christmas forecast. Just looked at the 0z ECM and its not half as mild as is being painted here. Looks like avg Irish temps in Dec to me (ca. 8/9c daytime). Thats not very mild. Also there is still scope for that be be modelled much colder (and yes, much milder too..) as there are occasional brief cold northerly incursions modelled over the next two weeks.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob



    Anyway this thread is supposed to be a bit of fun .

    Agreed. :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,250 ✭✭✭pauldry


    this is what BBC weather are saying

    Monday 24 December—Sunday 30 December

    A 'wet' rather than 'white' Christmas most likely

    There is a reasonable degree of agreement from various computer models that the unsettled theme will continue through the festive period. Rain, heavy at times, will be blown in by strong winds with a risk of gales. Temperatures are likely to be on the mild side, especially overnight, but perhaps turning a bit colder between Christmas and New Year.
    This forecast is however still subject to change, and there is the possibility of some rather colder and more wintry weather at times.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,306 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    0z GFS this morning indicating the possibility of some colder/wintry weather for Christmas Eve and Day.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    0z GFS this morning indicating the possibility of some colder/wintry weather for Christmas Eve and Day.
    then look at ecm, completely different!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,547 ✭✭✭droidman123


    this is exactly my point, long term to mid trem weather forecasting is completely pointless. i used to check weather forecasting sites before i went away on holiday, only 2 weeks in advance, 4-5 weather sites, and they would all be completely different. i dont waste my time any more, i just check the day before i go, and even sometimes they are totally wrong!:mad:


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,306 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    0z GFS this morning indicating the possibility of some colder/wintry weather for Christmas Eve and Day.

    Gone again on the 06z. :p


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,561 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    13C nailed on for Christmas Day, ideal, perfect for any driving and leave the woollies at home for the morning walk. the best outcome we could have got


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,306 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    13C nailed on for Christmas Day...

    Where did you get that from? Weatherwise, a week is very long way away! :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,715 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    13C nailed on for Christmas Day, ideal, perfect for any driving and leave the woollies at home for the morning walk. the best outcome we could have got

    :pac: Nailed on, you trying to jinx it ;)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Forecast by Met to be 'up to' 13c on Saturday, I doubt that will hold steady till christmas day though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,715 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Latest GFS showing a cooler north westerly, still T144 though. This time tomorrow can start posting in the 0-120 hours thread :)

    h850t850eu.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Things are starting to look interesting.

    Snow on Christmas Day may not be out of the realm of possibility, espically on high ground. After the 25th it's even more possible.

    4TJzH.gif


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,199 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Things are starting to look interesting.

    Snow on Christmas Day may not be out of the realm of possibility, espically on high ground. After the 25th it's even more possible.

    4TJzH.gif

    Are we in a better position for cold than our neighbours? They don't sound too optimistic re their chances.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Are we in a better position for cold than our neighbours? They don't sound too optimistic re their chances.

    Possibily, yes. This would be shots of polar maratime air being dragged down by lows. Northerly/Northwesterly airflows. Not a beast from the east.

    Not great potential for deep or sustained cold with this but greater potential for snow events for lucky areas, if all the conditions fall on the right side of marginal.

    These would be just cold shots / snaps though. You could see heavy snow one evening then milder weather and lashing rain the next day. Messy, not sustained and risky at best. But it makes interesting model watching.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,174 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Possibily, yes. This would be shots of polar maratime air being dragged down by lows. Northerly/Northwesterly airflows. Not a beast from the east.

    Not great potential for deep or sustained cold with this but greater potential for snow events for lucky areas, if all the conditions fall on the right side of marginal.

    These would be just cold shots / snaps though. You could see heavy snow one evening then milder weather and lashing rain the next day. Messy, not sustained and risky at best. But it makes interesting model watching.

    Maq, any idea what the set up was on Christmas day 2004 when a good lot of the country (including, amazingly, Cork city) had a white Christmas? I know there was no sustained cold and don't really remember snow having been forecast. Suspect it was an event like you mention that went "right" for us coldies. Very seasonal but no deep cold / frozen roads so every could still drive, etc, etc.

    Not saying this will happen this year before anyone jumps down my throat......


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Maq, any idea what the set up was on Christmas day 2004 when a good lot of the country (including, amazingly, Cork city) had a white Christmas? I know there was no sustained cold and don't really remember snow having been forecast. Suspect it was an event like you mention that went "right" for us coldies. Very seasonal but no deep cold / frozen roads so every could still drive, etc, etc.

    Not saying this will happen this year before anyone jumps down my throat......

    Northwesterly airflow. -6 to -8 uppers.

    archives-2004-12-25-12-0.png
    archives-2004-12-25-12-1.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,250 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Id stick with 8c for Christmas Day in general but the morning could be cold so we will see if Santa drops anything with his toys


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Donegal might see some snow, wont be long lasting tho.


    gfs-1-120.png?18

    St Stephens Day, cold and wet by the looks of things for most of us. Kids wont be able to test out their new bikes/scooter/skateboards ect..
    gfs-1-132.png?18


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,189 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    The irony of it all!! We spend the whole month looking east for cold and after all that we will be colder than East Europe on xmas day.(Nabber's chart above)
    A lot of Irish now have relatives in Poland especially, and will visit for xmas, who would have thought that after the charts we've been looking at all month, there's a better chance of getting snow in Ireland.(north and west like '04)
    Time to take a break til after xmas.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Could be a very wet and windy, maybe stormy, Christmas to New Years period.

    Doesn't look like much chance of snow at low levels, but high ground in the north could be lucky at times.

    With so many lows being thrown around on the models, I wouldn't be too surprised if we ended up with a windstorm on one of the days.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,174 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Well in fairly mild and wet period at least Christmas day looks relatively seasonal. Temps likely to be single figures everywhere. MT even talks of a snow possibility in elevated northern and western areas. Beats last years bbq Christmas I suppose.....


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    Todays farming forecast is the nail in the coffin as regards cold and snow for the next 7 days.

    What we need is Patience, the state of endurance under difficult circumstances ( Mild wet and windy weather ), which can mean persevering in the face of delay or provocation without acting on annoyance/anger in a negative way; or exhibiting forbearance when under strain, especially when faced with longer-term difficulties ( azores highs, mild south westerlies, low pressure after low pressure etc etc etc ). Patience is the level of endurance one can take before negativity. It is also used to refer to the character trait of being steadfast..( the biggest Greenland high or The biggest Beast from the east is on the way.......)!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,189 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    From -26c in Moscow now to this :eek:
    FSXX00T_72.jpg

    will any capital city in Europe be below freezing on St Stephen's Day?


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