Christmas 2012 Weather Thread

maquiladora

A wet & windy Christmas is the likely outcome at the moment, but as we've seen over the past few weeks, the models can change hugely in the longer ranges.

If we do get into a proper zonal pattern as looks likely now then it will be a lot more likely for that to continue for a while before we will be able to look for another potential cold setup, i.e. after Christmas.

Sponge Bob

But this thread will be for the locks by then Maq

For now looks wet and windy and atlantic. We might have a storm a day starting next weekend.

Rebelbrowser

Sponge Bob wrote: »

But this thread will be for the locks by then Maq

For now looks wet and windy and atlantic. We might have a storm a day starting next weekend.

I appreciate the models aren't exactly covering themselves in glory but, taken literally, this morning's models suggest the Estate of Bing Crosby could reap bumper royalties this Christmas.....

Sponge Bob

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

this morning's models suggest the Estate of Bing Crosby could reap bumper royalties this Christmas.....

Only if you can charge full whack for the word "Dreaming" RB

Duiske

Just had at peek at the 1st Christmas Day chart from the GFS. 70% chance of any precip over my house being of the fluffy white variety, and no sign of the almost record high temps of last xmas day, caused by Sponge Bob and all his negative thoughts.

Sponge Bob

Duiske wrote: »

Just had at peek at the 1st Christmas Day chart from the GFS. 70% chance of any precip over my house being of the fluffy white variety, and no sign of the almost record high temps of last xmas day, caused by Sponge Bob and all his negative thoughts.

The -8 push starts from the 21st of Dec in the 6z GFS ...so it could snow any/every day 21st-25th. I'll post the next 2 GFS runs as they appear, OK

Rebelbrowser

Sponge Bob wrote: »

The -8 push starts from the 21st of Dec in the 6z GFS ...so it could snow any/every day 21st-25th. I'll post the next 2 GFS runs as they appear, OK

And they're gone on the 12z! At least there were 6 hours there where......

Sponge Bob

As Promised. 12z run.

The Curse of Netweather strikes!!!!!

5 Whole Snow Days GONE!!!!!! GONE!!!!!!!!! :eek:

All because somebody mentioned Netweather!!!! :eek:


Friday, no -8 uppers



Saturday, no -8 uppers



Sunday, no -8 Uppers AND a mild incursion.



Monday 24th December, no -8 uppers.




And Finally, Tuesday 25th of December. What a trainwreck.

Sponge Bob

18Z GFS excurses a solitary -8 near us, thank GOD nobody mentioned Netweather since.



Lets hope future runs excurse a few more, eh! Nothing between the 21st and the 25th in the 18z.

Ergo no s*** :eek:

Rebelbrowser

Sponge Bob wrote: »

18Z GFS excurses a solitary -8 near us, thank GOD nobody mentioned Netweather since.



Lets hope future runs excurse a few more, eh! Nothing between the 21st and the 25th in the 18z.

Ergo no s*** :eek:

Tonights GFS 18z once again bodes well for the Estate of Bing Crosby (deceased).

pistolpetes11

Snow christmas eve according to the Pub run ,

Enjoy it folks cause it wont be there in the morning , As someone on another forum said " Il eat yellow snow if that comes off "

pistolpetes11

This does not bode too well :

Thought I'd get a few posts in here regarding the EC32 day when appropriate and that includes today given an overnight update and what a difference a week makes in the wonderful world of meteorology, as we all know. The shift in the broader synoptic patterns is marked within the EC32 day update and has now come into alignment with the other deterministic and ensemble members and unfortunately it's not a good outlook.

Throughout the 4 week period low pressure and a -ve pressure anom almost becomes a semi-permanent feature across the UK as northern blocking dominates, particularly throughout the next 2 weeks. Temperatures have risen to nearer average values as well. In fact and of interest the EC32 matches the following GFS height anom charts almost perfectly;

http://raleighwx.ame...htAnomalyNH.gif
http://raleighwx.ame...htAnomalyNH.gif


On face value they don't look too bad with clearly higher pressure at northern latitudes, but note the major -ve pressure anom slap-bang over the UK and this keeps the UK unsettled, wet and often windy throughout a large portion of December and into January according to the EC32. The EC32 has had a bashing of late, or so I've been told, on some internet forums, but I can say without any hesitation that using this model and the variety of charts and information that comes from it on a weekly basis operationally, it is more right than wrong. Clearly the signal for the E or NE'ly wasn't just picked up by the EC32 day but also the other deterministic models as well, but clearly that's now a thing of the past.

As quickly as things have changed recently, I hope the same happens again, simply because the lows don't have enough of a southerly track to combine with that higher pressure at more northern latitudes and for now, it would seem, that the rest of December is a horrid affair of grey, wet, windy and with temps around or perhaps slightly above average at times, especially in the south and west.

cml387

Excellent news for most normal human beings:)

pistolpetes11

cml387 wrote: »

Excellent news for most normal human beings:)

Well if you like non stop rain , mild temps and flooding , it is :pac:

Tom Cruises Left Nut

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Well if you like non stop rain , mild temps and flooding , it is :pac:

Unwelcome developments indeed !

Nothing worse than a mild mucky xmas day, ugh :mad::(

Rebelbrowser

Its two weeks away still and given two weeks ago we thought we'd be blanketed in snow by now, I think its fair not to write off Christmas just yet on the basis of (demonstrably unreliable) FI model predictions...

mike65

Business as usual then.

pistolpetes11

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Its two weeks away still and given two weeks ago we thought we'd be blanketed in snow by now, I think its fair not to write off Christmas just yet on the basis of (demonstrably unreliable) FI model predictions...

Its not written off , but this is not a good sign , the extremely negative anomaly over Ireland and the UK is quite worrying .

Especially after what could be in store from Thursday onwards

dexter647

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Its two weeks away still and given two weeks ago we thought we'd be blanketed in snow by now, I think its fair not to write off Christmas just yet on the basis of (demonstrably unreliable) FI model predictions...

Couldn't agree more as the Ec 32 if i remember correctly was predicting, last month, a December of Atlantic blocking.Short term yes not looking good but as we all know a lot can happen and change in 14 days in the world of weather. At least now we a very nice cold pool to our east waiting to to be tapped into:)

snowstreams

Well the bookies think it will be a white xmas!

http://www.independent.ie/weather/let-it-snow-odds-on-white-christmas-cut-after-flurry-of-bets-3323229.html

The odd are very poor at 5/2 for dublin anyway. 25/1 that the m50 will close!
It didnt even close during Dec 2010, and it was covered in a few inches of compacted snow then.
7/1 for galway might be an ok bet.

Rebelbrowser

snowstreams wrote: »

Well the bookies think it will be a white xmas!

http://www.independent.ie/weather/let-it-snow-odds-on-white-christmas-cut-after-flurry-of-bets-3323229.html

The odd are very poor at 5/2 for dublin anyway. 25/1 that the m50 will close!
It didnt even close during Dec 2010, and it was covered in a few inches of compacted snow then.
7/1 for galway might be an ok bet.

They are hilariously bad odds. Usually a White Christmas means it must snow on the day itself - so even lying snow wont do. Over the last ten years there have probably been 15 days when it snowed in Dublin, in Cork that figure is about 4! In Cork we've had one white Christmas (ie. it snowed on the day) in the last 25 years (2004). I'm not sure when Dublin had its last white Christmas (2009 and 2010 were not white Christmases in the classical sense). Not sure about Galway either.

Even if cold was reliably forecast for 25 Dec (its presently not), odds shorter than 10-1 for even Dublin would be unappealing, but 5-2!

snowstreams

Youre right, I forgot that snow has to actually fall on the day. That increases the odds a lot. Does freezing rain count!

pistolpetes11

dexter647 wrote: »

Couldn't agree more as the Ec 32 if i remember correctly was predicting, last month, a December of Atlantic blocking.Short term yes not looking good but as we all know a lot can happen and change in 14 days in the world of weather. At least now we a very nice cold pool to our east waiting to to be tapped into:)

There is lots of northern blocking in place like it predicted , its just were not in the rite spot again for it to benefit us ,

Anyway I am still hopeful enough for some decent cold this winter even if it does not land in time for Christmas , Mt has me looking at the bigger picture !

Cosmo Kramer

snowstreams wrote: »

Well the bookies think it will be a white xmas!

http://www.independent.ie/weather/let-it-snow-odds-on-white-christmas-cut-after-flurry-of-bets-3323229.html

The odd are very poor at 5/2 for dublin anyway. 25/1 that the m50 will close!
It didnt even close during Dec 2010, and it was covered in a few inches of compacted snow then.
7/1 for galway might be an ok bet.

I think lazy journalists save this article to use at about this time every year. I wonder has there ever been a 'bookies increase odds of a white christmas' headline instead of the usual 'bookie SLASH odds...' crap we usually see printed.?

eddiem10

t|nt|n wrote: »

Unwelcome developments indeed !

Nothing worse than a mild mucky xmas day, ugh :mad::(

Well, not been able to drive and spend Christmas Day with your family is worse.... In my opinion. (Christmas 2010)

pauldry

Its still not completely out of the question though for it to snow on Christmas day.

A cold day on Christmas Eve followed by a chilly night could bring some wintry showers and at least the ground will be partially white Christmas morning after which who cares if it melts for Mass and the pss up after.

Rebelbrowser

Netweather's latest is below. Alas TWO's latest is 3 days out of date so I won't bother with it.

Lots of confusion re 21 to 25 December on the models. You can find everything from hurricanes to +6 uppers to -8 uppers. Somebody posted a CFS chart today on another thread showing -8 uppers from an easterly outbreak over virtually the whole country on Christmas Eve. I'd reluctantly take that... Alas more reliable (if such things exist!) models say otherwise.

Anyway, here it goes...

"Netweather Christmas Forecast 2012
Christmas Weather 2012 - Will It Be A White Christmas? - Forecast Updated Tuesday 11th December

Christmas Countdown:
13 days to go! 2 weeks to go! The organised among us will be sitting pretty having done all the shopping and half the wrapping by now, whereas people like me will be starting to panic a little and be looking forward to the annual Xmas eve dash around the shops for last minute bits and pieces that have been forgotten.

The weather is in a similar poorly organised state as well, it's cold right now but milder, wetter weather is on the way later this week and with the days ticking down toward Christmas it'll be a bit of a race against time if we're to see a change back to something more seasonal for the big day.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/images/winter/xmas2012/ens-xmas1.png

The chart above is from the GFS ensembles, and without getting into techie details is showing a range of possible scenarios for Christmas day. As before, the blue colour needs to be over the UK for a chance of snow, and as you'll see there aren't too many of those mini maps showing that.

This isn't to say it's out of the question at this point as there are some indications that colder weather has a chance of making a comeback in time for Christmas, but even with just a couple of weeks to go there's a lot of uncertainty.

If you're hoping for a white Christmas though, now may be a good time to get working on a snow dances (maybe do a rain dance with a Santa hat on?) to help it along! ..."

Rebelbrowser

Just a quick update. Odds still stacked against cold (certainly white) Christmas, BUT things look a little better than a few days ago for coldes. The ECM for the last two runs (with sometime agreement from the GFS) shows the cold to the east making its way westwards over these Islands around 23 Dec - though only really touching Ireland before the atlantic makes a return. Suffice it to say that if the ECM is generally right, and if the cold moves 100 miles further west (yes, thats two big "ifs" I appreciate), then we could be suckin' diesel yet!

Netweather (there, I said it) have a Christmas update coming out later today which I will try to post....

droidman123

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Netweather's latest is below. Alas TWO's latest is 3 days out of date so I won't bother with it.

Lots of confusion re 21 to 25 December on the models. You can find everything from hurricanes to +6 uppers to -8 uppers. Somebody posted a CFS chart today on another thread showing -8 uppers from an easterly outbreak over virtually the whole country on Christmas Eve. I'd reluctantly take that... Alas more reliable (if such things exist!) models say otherwise.

Anyway, here it goes...

"Netweather Christmas Forecast 2012
Christmas Weather 2012 - Will It Be A White Christmas? - Forecast Updated Tuesday 11th December

Christmas Countdown:
13 days to go! 2 weeks to go! The organised among us will be sitting pretty having done all the shopping and half the wrapping by now, whereas people like me will be starting to panic a little and be looking forward to the annual Xmas eve dash around the shops for last minute bits and pieces that have been forgotten.

The weather is in a similar poorly organised state as well, it's cold right now but milder, wetter weather is on the way later this week and with the days ticking down toward Christmas it'll be a bit of a race against time if we're to see a change back to something more seasonal for the big day.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/images/winter/xmas2012/ens-xmas1.png

The chart above is from the GFS ensembles, and without getting into techie details is showing a range of possible scenarios for Christmas day. As before, the blue colour needs to be over the UK for a chance of snow, and as you'll see there aren't too many of those mini maps showing that.

This isn't to say it's out of the question at this point as there are some indications that colder weather has a chance of making a comeback in time for Christmas, but even with just a couple of weeks to go there's a lot of uncertainty.

If you're hoping for a white Christmas though, now may be a good time to get working on a snow dances (maybe do a rain dance with a Santa hat on?) to help it along! ..."

correct me if i am wrong,but arnt most contributers here from ireland? why do you keep giving updates on the uk weather????

droidman123

it is not possible to correctly predict the weather for ireland beyond 2-3 days at most, unless there are circumstances like a high pressure sitting over us. i watch those half wits on the rte weather time and time again getting it totally wrong, its hilairious to see!! but in fairness, all other forecasters are laughably wrong 99% of the time as well, as for that postman chancer in donegal.....cant believe people actually take heed of his predictions.haha his latest forecast back in late october was that we were supposed to be up to our goolies in snow by the end of november....ahhhh i,m sure he is a nice man though.