Leaf price drop - game changer?

Oafley Jones · 23-11-2012 10:07PM

I'm curious to know if anyone has any idea what the energy requirements would be if every car in the country magically became a leaf over night?

Purely electric cars seem fine in as a niche activity, but if they were adopted en masse it would seem like an absolute nightmare in terms of the logistics alone.

That coupled with the extremely slow progress in battery technology - even looking at phones/laptops and their power requirements - batteries from NiCd to LiIon haven't really progressed much in terms of performance - rather the main gains are other components that have become more energy efficient and it seems pretty much impossible to work around the energy requirement of moving X amount of mass. Purely electric cars seem like an evolutionary dead end.

23-11-2012 10:09PM

Matt Simis wrote: »

Tax? LPG has nothing to do with (motor) tax.

What ? lpg is taxed as a fuel, what are you talking about motor tax ?

Matt Simis wrote: »

Think outside the EV box for minute.
Refueling at home from your locally produced LPG easily "beats this". Whats even better is you could have:

- LPG tank at home
- Fuel for both car and home heating, low emission, energy dense
- Home heating with CHP LPG boiler providing off-grid electric power as a byproduct of heat generation (or vice versa pending viewpoint).

That kicks the ass of plugging into our slightly emission $hitty national grid and utilising our extremely expensive electric rates doesnt it?

Not only is it doable today, it also means you dont have to drive something as awful as a Prius (think not just MPG and oh yes it is) and can avail of a cheap, low emission and high performance fuel an engine type.

CHP boilers are hugely expensive.

And a Prius isn't a bad drive. Don't underestimate it until you own it![/QUOTE]

Matt Simis wrote: »

a big proponent of Wind and Solar off grid power supply and therefore Im well aware, as you should be, that Renewables at best get close to an average household's energy needs, but you have no chance of realistically charging a car in any reasonable timeframe (with or without the household consumption too).

You are joking aren't you ?

Domestic renewable energy generation in Ireland has huge potential, even a solar panel of 3KW/p could generate nearly all my electricity needs if generating just 1kw/p for 7 hrs a day. In summer that is more than made up for because of the long daylight hours we have. So the excell goes to the grid.

Now a better way to go is wind and solar hybrid system if you have the space.

A 3 kw/p solar system will go a long way towards charging an E.V. 5kw/p even better. I estimate a lot off excess can be generated using the ESB as your big expensive storage battery.

Matt Simis wrote: »

I get you guys are passionate about EVs, but you really have blinkers on and try and force fit it into every scenario. Im a proponent of the mixed bag energy sphere.

That isn't fair, really what I like to point out is that if buying a new car of around the same price as a Leaf then the E.V is the better way to go as the fuel will be a fraction of the cost of electricity.

For instance my fuel bills would be around 3-3500 Euro's a year compared to 6-700 in electricity.

But yes I'm a techno nut, and one of the reasons I got the Prius and I'm glad I did because it's getting about 14 mpg better than the Audi TDI on fuel with no timing belt to change and it's just as fast and its got a lot more room inside. And the prius was got for around 4 grand less than a diesel with twice the mileage.

Matt Simis · 23-11-2012 11:34PM

Deleted User wrote: »

What ? lpg is taxed as a fuel, what are you talking about motor tax ?

Oh come on, now you want to avoid paying the tax on LPG too? Christ, even I would admit that as a community we all have to pay some tax. The taxation (aside from VAT) on LPG is just 8c a litre for Autogas and 4c a litre for home heating. But anyhow..

You are joking aren't you ?
Domestic renewable energy generation in Ireland has huge potential, even a solar panel of 3KW/p could generate nearly all my electricity needs if generating just 1kw/p for 7 hrs a day. In summer that is more than made up for because of the long daylight hours we have. So the excell goes to the grid.
Now a better way to go is wind and solar hybrid system if you have the space.
A 3 kw/p solar system will go a long way towards charging an E.V. 5kw/p even better. I estimate a lot off excess can be generated using the ESB as your big expensive storage battery.

Well one of us definately is way off base here!
Why are you quoting KW/peak when you dont live in a lab? A 3kw/p system doesnt generate even close to that anywhere in the real world, let alone Ireland.

3kw "capable" Solar system is about 6000.. Plus install and setup of another couple of grand. So the guts of 10k before its done anything for you. And you said CHP boilers were expensive!?

The average UK home (same or better than Ireland, I cant use your self proclaimed figures for your house obviously) uses 4.8KWh a year. A 3KWp system would provide about 40% at best the household power requirements. This is using an actual Solar Panel reseller's figures, which no doubt are cherry picked best possible case. There is a Watchdog and BBB investigation into the general overclaims of PV in the UK atm.

So your 3KW/p system wont even get close to half your (ok "average home") household need, let alone charge your car. So lets assume you just continue using the dirty grid for the house and use the 3KW/p for the car alone:

Online calcs suggest a 3KW/p system would generate about 5kWh per day (on average over the year, yes much higher in summer, but average). A Leaf has a 24kWh battery. So on average your 10 grand PV system could generate about 20% of the EV's power requirements (or 5days to charge fully which is what I was saying!).. assuming you dont need to drive your car during the daylight period. Thats not really practical or overly impressive IMO. Capturing the power in batteries to charge overnight instead has a host of its own storage and transmission losses, reducing that even more. Again not that good, something yes, but for a EUR10,000 outlay! Not good.

Wind Power, potientially great, however Ive been monitoring Wind Speed in my area for 2years as I really wanted to make the case for a Wind Turbine. What I found is depressing and the same as others, Wind Power in Ireland is too peaky and isolated, its completely unreliable as in comes in massive, useless gusts but not much outside of this. You can see my weather stats here: weather.netcessible.com

Generally minimum average speed to get lowest benefit from Wind Turbine: 5m/s
Actual recorded Wind Speed, MidLands Ireland: 2m/s

Thats 2years worth of real data.. Wind is useless as a (reliable) power source here and generally has been found as useless elsewhere.. Im genuinely sad to say as like you I love the concept, but the reality is rubbish. FWIW Im in a level area with flat fields around me and a rolling hill the otherside of that, making it a theoretically great location. But its not.

But yes I'm a techno nut, and one of the reasons I got the Prius and I'm glad I did because it's getting about 14 mpg better than the Audi TDI on fuel with no timing belt to change and it's just as fast and its got a lot more room inside. And the prius was got for around 4 grand less than a diesel with twice the mileage.

I have no idea what you are comparing what to or what price ("Audi TDI" is very vague), but I bought an Audi S8 for 2k, put in 1.5k of LPG conversion and paid 80c a litre for the fuel. I also fixed it up for another couple of grand, but that was my prerogative as I like to fix things. The S8 was 340bhp and AWD and obviously far bigger and better than a Prius. Even with the LPG savings per Km it cost more than a Prius of course, but the entry price into super saloons is not expensive and neither are the running costs, if thinking further than petrol but without the "fringe science theory" of EVs.

Without going to the expensive tax of a V8 Audi S8, an Audi A4 1.8T Quattro (B5 model, about EUR1500 to buy) can be tuned to 300bhp and run on LPG (install cost on a 4pot is like EUR999) giving you fast and super cheap to run saloon. Using Environmentally friendly LPG giving the owner a 500km range on LPG alone with maybe 600km in addition on petrol. Suddenly the trips to "Kells" to charge up a lower power, small EV like the Nissan Leaf look pretty weak sauce.

24-11-2012 12:14AM

Matt Simis wrote: »

Oh come on, now you want to avoid paying the tax on LPG too? Christ, even I would admit that as a community we all have to pay some tax. The taxation (aside from VAT) on LPG is just 8c a litre for Autogas and 4c a litre for home heating. But anyhow..
Well one of us definately is way off base here!
Why are you quoting KW/peak when you dont live in a lab? A 3kw/p system doesnt generate even close to that anywhere in the real world, let alone Ireland.

3kw "capable" Solar system is about 6000.. Plus install and setup of another couple of grand. So the guts of 10k before its done anything for you. And you said CHP boilers were expensive!?

The average UK home (same or better than Ireland, I cant use your self proclaimed figures for your house obviously) uses 4.8KWh a year. A 3KWp system would provide about 40% at best the household power requirements. This is using an actual Solar Panel reseller's figures, which no doubt are cherry picked best possible case. There is a Watchdog and BBB investigation into the general overclaims of PV in the UK atm.

So your 3KW/p system wont even get close to half your (ok "average home") household need, let alone charge your car. So lets assume you just continue using the dirty grid for the house and use the 3KW/p for the car alone:

Online calcs suggest a 3KW/p system would generate about 5kWh per day (on average over the year, yes much higher in summer, but average). A Leaf has a 24kWh battery. So on average your 10 grand PV system could generate about 20% of the EV's power requirements (or 5days to charge fully which is what I was saying!).. assuming you dont need to drive your car during the daylight period. Thats not really practical or overly impressive IMO. Capturing the power in batteries to charge overnight instead has a host of its own storage and transmission losses, reducing that even more. Again not that good, something yes, but for a EUR10,000 outlay! Not good.

Wind Power, potientially great, however Ive been monitoring Wind Speed in my area for 2years as I really wanted to make the case for a Wind Turbine. What I found is depressing and the same as others, Wind Power in Ireland is too peaky and isolated, its completely unreliable as in comes in massive, useless gusts but not much outside of this. You can see my weather stats here: weather.netcessible.com

Generally minimum average speed to get lowest benefit from Wind Turbine: 5m/s
Actual recorded Wind Speed, MidLands Ireland: 2m/s

Thats 2years worth of real data.. Wind is useless as a (reliable) power source here and generally has been found as useless elsewhere.. Im genuinely sad to say as like you I love the concept, but the reality is rubbish. FWIW Im in a level area with flat fields around me and a rolling hill the otherside of that, making it a theoretically great location. But its not.

I have no idea what you are comparing what to or what price ("Audi TDI" is very vague), but I bought an Audi S8 for 2k, put in 1.5k of LPG conversion and paid 80c a litre for the fuel. I also fixed it up for another couple of grand, but that was my prerogative as I like to fix things. The S8 was 340bhp and AWD and obviously far bigger and better than a Prius. Even with the LPG savings per Km it cost more than a Prius of course, but the entry price into super saloons is not expensive and neither are the running costs, if thinking further than petrol but without the "fringe science theory" of EVs.

Without going to the expensive tax of a V8 Audi S8, an Audi A4 1.8T Quattro (B5 model, about EUR1500 to buy) can be tuned to 300bhp and run on LPG (install cost on a 4pot is like EUR999) giving you fast and super cheap to run saloon. Using Environmentally friendly LPG giving the owner a 500km range on LPG alone with maybe 600km in addition on petrol. Suddenly the trips to "Kells" to charge up a lower power, small EV like the Nissan Leaf look pretty weak sauce.

I can't reply to all this now, but I can tell you that even an s8 v 8 on LPG will cost many time what it will cost me in the Prius, even a 1.8 tfsi A4 on lpg will cost me more to run than a Prius on LPG.

The old ice is cheaper is getting old because no matter if on petrol or diesel people will have to increasingly buy older and older ice cars, because of fuel costs. If that's what you want that's fine.

And you didn't get my point in using the esb as a big cheap storage battery either.

In the end we all have a choice, like me I like gadgets, and more refinement so more modern is the way for me and cheap electricity, or someone else who likes old and noisy and vibration and expensive fuel, maintenance etc , even LPG compared to electricity is much more expensive.

I do a lot of miles and 600-700 on leccy compared to 3000-3500 on petrol + no maintenance and less tax bring that closer to 4000 a year mean that's a lot of money I have to pay off a new car that I wouldn't otherwise be able to do paying for petrol and diesel.

I think your numbers are off for the renewables. We need someone with solar for real data. Anyone like to,report how their solar p.v is doing ?

My current daily average leccy is about 6.2 kw/hrs per day

Matt Simis · 24-11-2012 12:24AM

Well
- You didnt explain your ESB battery thing at all, assume you mean sell it back to them when you produce it then buy it off them when you need it. My understanding is the sell rates are $hit here though?
- My Solar "estimates" arent mine, they are from the European Union's excellent and respected official calculatior, its a consumer guidence tool. This is the reality (I pinpointed my location as midlands Ireland, chose all best optimised and pricey panels, this was best case for your benefit):
http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/apps4/pvest.php#
- To be doubly sure I even used this Resellers calculator to compare, I used LL652YH as the postcode and drew a 4m square PV panel on the roof. I dont make up crappy numbers, you may "like gadgets" but you arent the only one, Ive had an interest in renewables for years and years, studied courses, passed exams, prepared and presented business cases etc. But Im not brainwashed by the promise.
- So Im going to stand by those numbers, your EV home renewable charging is an impractical pipe dream. Google renewable charging Leaf and see this repeated elsewhere.

- On the refinement, not to be condescending but if you consider a Prius a more refined car than an A8/S8 then I hope you never get in one to see how far from reality that is. Jesus like, we are talking about 100k super exec's versus a frugal small family runabout. I dont care what the age difference is, refinement and class arent assembled by Japanese robots. Seriously man.. get over the "old ICE cars are crusty old wagons" BS. We had EVs 100 years ago, they arent new they arent cool and they arent a revalation. They are just as jaded as ICE, just way less of a solid package.

- I also said an Audi S8 would cost more than a Prius (A4 maybe not) to run, however it freaking should cost more given its triple the power, double the drive train and 10x the class. What I was stating, which you didnt get, is you (guys in general) claim the cost difference not the "value" difference.

You give us the definition of a cynic in a nice real world example.

Tragedy · 24-11-2012 01:39AM

Matt Simis wrote: »

That makes no sense at all. The described scenario is when there is a critical mass of EVs causing a significant impact on the mineral oil tax intake. To make up that difference they cant (logically) tax a diminishing pool of mineral tax vehicles as the actual $$ increase would be too small and it would drive a further reduction in tax revenue over the year and next year.

It only makes no sense because you're making stupid assumptions. If petroleum cars decrease from 99.9999999% of the market to 95%(and I don't think anyone is expecting them to do so for many years), the Government can't tax the 95% enough to make up the 5% lost?
Yeah, that makes economic sense. Motorists would never stand for a 5% increase in excise duty and motor tax, never!

:rolleyes:

24-11-2012 10:48AM

Matt Simis wrote: »

Well
- You didnt explain your ESB battery thing at all, assume you mean sell it back to them when you produce it then buy it off them when you need it. My understanding is the sell rates are $hit here though?

Yes I did explain it, and you get a little more for the excess than what it costs on night rate. So in other words in relation to solar P.V, your excess during the day goes into the grid while you are out and you take back from the grid with a slight profit.

Matt Simis wrote: »

So Im going to stand by those numbers, your EV home renewable charging is an impractical pipe dream. Google renewable charging Leaf and see this repeated elsewhere.

I can't nor you can't say for certain unless you have solar, we need more people to post their solar P.V generated kw/hr figures on the web, that's the only real way to know.

All I need to know is at a minimum what a 5kw/p system will generate on a cloudy day and I can calculate that over a year as a minimum.

But someone here on boards was generating 1kw form a 3kw/p system on a cloudy day so that's at least 7-8 kw/hrs on a cloudy day which is more than my current average consumption of 6.2 kw/hrs per day from a 3kw/p system.

[QUOTE=Matt Simis;81905763 I also said an Audi S8 would cost more than a Prius (A4 maybe not) to run, however it freaking should cost more given its triple the power, double the drive train and 10x the class. What I was stating, which you didnt get, is you (guys in general) claim the cost difference not the "value" difference. [/QUOTE]

Find me an S4 under 30 grand ? and car tax for 1600 a year, I would probably end up paying 5 grand or more for even LPG at my mileage.

Yeah an S4 on LPG really makes sense, lol

Over 30K for a car and costs much more to fuel than even a prius ? You obviously could afford to pay so much or you don't drive the 25K miles or so a year that I have to.

Sure wouldn't be long until I fell the "value" difference wear off ! LOL

Marlow · 24-11-2012 02:25PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Find me an S4 under 30 grand ?

'04 Audi S4 Avant, 9500 EUR --> http://cars.donedeal.ie/for-sale/cars/4021944
Low enough milage, too.

Just sayin'

/M

Joe 90 · 24-11-2012 04:18PM

September1 wrote: »

Why would I want EVs to be acceptable to everyone? Do you have problem with ICEs? Consider that someone might just prefer to use ICE for sentimental reasons.

I didn't say that I had any urge to have one even if they get to 300 miles range and a 5 minute charge up. I like a nice crisp, high revving naturally aspirate engine giving on the right side of 100bhp per liter and a car that comes out oh the right side of 200 bhp per ton.

24-11-2012 05:05PM

Marlow wrote: »

'04 Audi S4 Avant, 9500 EUR --> http://cars.donedeal.ie/for-sale/cars/4021944
Low enough milage, too.

Just sayin'

/M

Sorry I did mean to say find me an S 8 for under 30 k, even at almost 10 grand for an S 4 with nearly 90 k miles is just mad.

Now you ice lovers are getting desperate

Marlow · 24-11-2012 05:10PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Sorry I did mean to say find me an S 8 for under 30 k, even at almost 10 grand for an S 4 with nearly 90 k miles is just mad.

Now you ice lovers are getting desperate

'01 Audi A8 Sport, 127k miles, 2650 EUR --> http://cars.donedeal.ie/for-sale/cars/3969551

'03 Audi S8, 70k miles, 4950 GBP --> http://tinyurl.com/ckqzang . Even when VRT comes on top of that, it'll never be anywhere near 30k.

You're clinging to straws. And re-read your post. It was an S4 you referred to.

/M

24-11-2012 05:33PM

Marlow wrote: »

'01 Audi A8 Sport, 127k miles, 2650 EUR --> http://cars.donedeal.ie/for-sale/cars/3969551

'03 Audi S8, 70k miles, 4950 GBP --> http://tinyurl.com/ckqzang . Even when VRT comes on top of that, it'll never be anywhere near 30k.

You're clinging to straws. And re-read your post. It was an S4 you referred to.

/M

I know what I typed but I meant to say S 8 because I saw a few on carzone the cheapest being around 8 grand.

You are the one "clinging to straws" linking to older and older cars with mad mileage and car tax and such high fuel economy that would make an Arab wish he could turn the desert into oil !

LOL I think this argument is wearing itself out. I'm tired of it now. Everyone has their own opinions so lets leave it at that ?

Marlow · 24-11-2012 05:40PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I know what I typed but I meant to say S 8 because I saw a few on carzone the cheapest being around 8 grand.

You are the one "clinging to straws" linking to older and older cars with mad mileage and car tax and such high fuel economy that would make an Arab wish he could turn the desert into oil !

LOL I think this argument is wearing itself out. I'm tired of it now. Everyone has their own opinions so lets leave it at that ?

No. The fact is, that the manufacturing and later disposal of the likes of the Prius or Leaf, especially the batteries, is a much bigger impact on the environment. So the being good for the environment approach is wrong.

Also, can you enlighten me, why you think, that 70-90k miles is mad milage ? Any car is good for 250k + miles, so these haven't even served half of the life-time.

So from that point of the view, the most environment friendly solution is buying a second hand car and specialing it up for better fuel consumption. You have omitted the earlier discussion, which suggested to convert these to LPG and then the fuel consumption pretty much around the 50-60 mpg, based on a petrol price figure.

/M

MMAGirl · 24-11-2012 05:46PM

Marlow wrote: »

No. The fact is, that the manufacturing and later disposal of the likes of the Prius or Leaf, especially the batteries, is a much bigger impact on the environment. So the being good for the environment approach is wrong.

Also, can you enlighten me, why you think, that 70-90k miles is mad milage ? Any car is good for 250k + miles, so these haven't even served half of the life-time.

So from that point of the view, the most environment friendly solution is buying a second hand car and specialing it up for better fuel consumption. You have omitted the earlier discussion, which suggested to convert these to LPG and then the fuel consumption pretty much around the 50-60 mpg, based on a petrol price figure.

/M

Your strategy is working.
You are boring people out of any desire they have for a leaf. stoppit. enough.

24-11-2012 05:52PM

Marlow wrote: »

No. The fact is, that the manufacturing and later disposal of the likes of the Prius or Leaf, especially the batteries, is a much bigger impact on the environment.

Also, can you enlighten me, why you think, that 70-90k miles is mad milage ? Any car is good for 250k + miles, so these haven't even served half of the life-time.

So from that point of the view, the most environment, buying a second hand car and specialing it up for better fuel consumption is the most environment friendly solution. You have omitted the earlier discussion, which suggested to convert these to LPG and then the fuel consumption pretty much around the 50-60 mpg, based on a petrol price figure.

/M

Batteries are recycled and the materials used to make new batteries. spent Batteries in full e.v's can be used in renewable energy storage systems for many more years.

10 grand for a car with that mileage is madness.

Sure I had my old A4 until 200,000 miles, And it still drove well. And of course it was nicer to drive than the prius, but the prius is a good work horse and far better on fuel than the B6 TDI 130PS, multitronic. The prius is also much more roomy than the A4 was.

LPG is worth consideration but not in huge engines where you would end up paying even more from far higher fuel consumption. In a 60+ mpg Prius though would half my fuel bills ! Doing far less miles than me would be worth it in a big engine.

Marlow · 24-11-2012 06:06PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I know what I typed but I meant to say S 8 because I saw a few on carzone the cheapest being around 8 grand.

So you found one under 30k yourself, but decided to ignore that. Interesting.

Deleted User wrote: »

Batteries are recycled and the materials used to make new batteries. spent Batteries in full e.v's can be used in renewable energy storage systems for many more years.

The process to produce new or recycle old batteries is still fairly toxic and stressful on the environment.

Deleted User wrote: »

10 grand for a car with that mileage is madness.

Why is that madness ? You get a lot of car for the money, with loads of life left. And an extremely nice place to be on your commute. By converting it to LPG, you make it very affordable as a daily, especially on long commutes. Instead you spend 3 times as much for a Prius ?

And the 20k difference of what you pay less than for the Prius, you can more than plenty cover other expenses, related to the car. I hardly would believe, that you use that much more fuel over the same period of ownership. So the argument on the saving is pretty void, too.

/M

24-11-2012 06:31PM

Marlow wrote: »

Why is that madness ? You get a lot of car for the money, with loads of life left. And an extremely nice place to be on your commute. By converting it to LPG, you make it very affordable as a daily, especially on long commutes. Instead you spend 3 times as much for a Prius ?

/M

I didn't buy the prius new and paid.

Also converting an S8 to LPG would still mean much larger fuel bills for me.

20 mpg or less V 60+ even with LPG it would still cost a lot more to fuel the S8, or prove me wrong. 7 kms per litre V 20

That means I can do my commute on 37 litres in the prius V 107 litres in the S4

that's an extra 70 litres or 85.5 Euro's v 58 Euro's in the Prius, at 1.52.9 per litre currently in Carlow.

+ a lot less tax and my insurance would sky rocket on a 400 hp car.

Sure the S4 would be nice but anything at my mileage will cost.

However if I can convert the prius that could be almost cut in half of petrol.

Sesshoumaru · 24-11-2012 06:34PM

Marlow wrote: »

No. The fact is, that the manufacturing and later disposal of the likes of the Prius or Leaf, especially the batteries, is a much bigger impact on the environment. So the being good for the environment approach is wrong.

Oh great! another tree hugging ICE person... buy an ICE car and save a polar bear baby they say!!

Battery packs will have a second life outside of the EV they were born in, quite a considerable second life. After that I imagine they will be recycled to get back some of the precious rare earth metals used in their construction. Why would they be 'disposed' of when they are so valuable?

Leaf price drop - game changer?

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