Leaf price drop - game changer?

MMAGirl · 20-11-2012 09:44PM

Mad_Lad wrote: »

Well unless they plan tolls on every major route, then no, I don't think they will.

They would have to have car tax at about 3,000 a year to make up the difference to me, so I can't see that any time soon.

The most likely scenario would be to apply vrt at the minimum, thats not going to happen as even at 25K the Leaf would end up costing around 29 k.

Tax is so high on Cars in general that people are not buying in large numbere, that and they can't afford it.

But the usual thing in Ireland is to increase taxes and charges even higher to compensate when in fact if they lowered taxes a,lot more people would buy.

I know I will never buy a new car with vrt, never!

Or make it so it's illegal to use normal household electricity to charge it. Make it that you have to charge using only highly taxed electricity specially designed outlets for your car. Ala green diesel.

extremetaz · 21-11-2012 11:12AM

Joe 90 wrote: »

You really believe that if EVs take off in any number the government won't find a way to tax the bejasus out of them?

MMAGirl wrote: »

Or make it so it's illegal to use normal household electricity to charge it. Make it that you have to charge using only highly taxed electricity specially designed outlets for your car. Ala green diesel.

This is almost certainly inevitable - arguing otherwise is folly.

However it's a VERY long way off and EV's will never be taxed to the point that they're as expensive as ICE (well, at least not before ICE dies altogether). Simple reason being that that would remove the incentive to switch, and bottom line, the Govt. *WANTS* these cars on the grid.

The benefits of large numbers of EV's to grid stability and efficiency are simply enormous.

On the flipside of that is that the longer these preconceived notions of the EV as a waste of time persist, then then longer it'll be before any of the above happens - hence the happier I am.

...so please continue.

galwaytt · 21-11-2012 05:00PM

extremetaz wrote: »

Simple reason being that that would remove the incentive to switch, and bottom line, the Govt. *WANTS* these cars on the grid.

The benefits of large numbers of EV's to grid stability and efficiency are simply enormous.

I think you're giving the Govt way too much credit. They could care less what motive power we use- they are ONLY interested in the money.

If you can run a car on salt water tomorrow, they'll happily tax that right up the wazoo as well.

Grid stability etc wont' come into it if it's losing money to them.

Leonard Hofstadter · 21-11-2012 10:02PM

galwaytt wrote: »

I think you're giving the Govt way too much credit. They could care less what motive power we use- they are ONLY interested in the money.

Exactly, electric cars will only be cheap to run until such time as lots of people buy them. Then there will be road pricing or some thing. As the CO2 system for car tax shows, low running cost loopholes are only there for a short period of time before they're closed.

Atlantic Dawn · 21-11-2012 10:05PM

These cars after purchase contribute nothing in excise duties to the government, their time will be numbered before a levy is thrown on them.

Tragedy · 22-11-2012 12:32AM

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

These cars after purchase contribute nothing in excise duties to the government, their time will be numbered before a levy is thrown on them.

Nope, just means excise duty will go up.

Much more politically expedient to say "Due to the availability of EV and alternative fuel cars, we've taken the decision to increase excise duty on fuel to incentivise people to buy them" than to say "We're taxing the hell out of green cars".

extremetaz · 22-11-2012 10:09AM

Tragedy wrote: »

Nope, just means excise duty will go up.

Much more politically expedient to say "Due to the availability of EV and alternative fuel cars, we've taken the decision to increase excise duty to incentivise people to buy them" than to say "We're taking the hell out of green cars".

now THIS is actually the first very good point I've seen on this thread in quite a while.

I think you're likely exactly right Tragedy.

The above strategy covers all the bases as it buffer's the tax deficit during the switchover and ultimately will provide the "illusion" of cheaper running when the full taxes do come in on EV's.

We're still talking about a timeframe of years here but I definitely think you're on to something.

* edit: just for the sake of the nay sayers - I'm not saying the above strategy is correct or right, just that it's the more likely approach that will be taken.

NIMAN · 23-11-2012 04:27PM

Anyone know if the Gov €5k grant towards a car of <75gm is still applicable?

Matt Simis · 23-11-2012 04:33PM

Tragedy wrote: »

Nope, just means excise duty will go up.

Much more politically expedient to say "Due to the availability of EV and alternative fuel cars, we've taken the decision to increase excise duty on fuel to incentivise people to buy them" than to say "We're taxing the hell out of green cars".

That makes no sense at all. The described scenario is when there is a critical mass of EVs causing a significant impact on the mineral oil tax intake. To make up that difference they cant (logically) tax a diminishing pool of mineral tax vehicles as the actual $$ increase would be too small and it would drive a further reduction in tax revenue over the year and next year.

What they will absolutely do is increase taxes in a manner of ways for EV owners to bring them to parity with ICE 2008. Thats not to say tax will not increase in some manner on the remaining ICE vehicles (in this as yet fictitious EV happy scenario) but the loss in tax will be levied on that which caused it and best able to support reclaiming it.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/coal-oil-gas/top-10-myths-about-natural-gas-drilling-6386593#slide-1

Deleted User wrote: »

You honestly think hydrogen will be cheap ? It takes massive amounts of energy to make it. And greedy energy companies will control it and governments tax it.

I like how you ignored LPG and CNG entirely from his statement. Hydraulic Fracturing (Fracking) has exposed that the US and UK are potentially world leaders in Gas reserves, not to mention what Russia, Canada and Australia might be hiding. This is a real fuel, with massive calorific value, no foreign military excursions, low emissions right under our feet. The infrastructure to distribute is already here (petrol stations), unlike EVs which might be decades from that point (and unlikely to ever get there). The combustion process already exists too and could be fine tuned for high octane gas burning.

Hydrogen can come afterwards.

September1 · 23-11-2012 04:54PM

LPG is byproduct of oil production, I think near future cars could go on LNG and CNG conversions are already existing - problem is low energy density like with EVs. I think though that EV infrastructure is not that bad, I drove in Connemara few months ago and even small villages seem to be powered by electricity.

beazee · 23-11-2012 05:02PM

NIMAN wrote: »

Anyone know if the Gov €5k grant towards a car of <75gm is still applicable?

I've only heard the grant is towards Battery powered Electric Vehicles and Plug-in Hybrids.

More to be found at: http://www.seai.ie/Grants/Electric_Vehicle_Grant_Scheme

In April 2009 the Minister for Communication Energy and Natural Resources announced the introduction of grant support of up to €5,000 for the purchase of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and up to €2,500 for the purchase of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) available from 2011 to 2012

extremetaz · 23-11-2012 05:06PM

September1 wrote: »

...and even small villages seem to be powered by electricity.

I chortled.

Matt Simis · 23-11-2012 05:13PM

September1 wrote: »

LPG is byproduct of oil production, I think near future cars could go on LNG and CNG conversions are already existing - problem is low energy density like with EVs. I think though that EV infrastructure is not that bad, I drove in Connemara few months ago and even small villages seem to be powered by electricity.

Again, the stuff on this thread that the EV hounds jump on is insane. You guys need to stop thanking every crackpot, incorrect anti-ICE/pro EV statement that comes up.

LPG is not just a "byproduct of oil production", it can also be (and is) produced from Natural Gas reserves, which are rapidly being discovered all over the world. In massive quantities. The benefit of mineral fuel sources are their huge energy contents per kg/litre, which makes then a vastly better power source than batteries and solar etc.. which brings us to the next part of that statement..

"Low energy density like with EVs". - are you serious? You could not be more wrong. MJ per litre:

Petrol: 36
LPG: 26
Lithium: 4.3 (or more accurately measured per kilo 1.8)
So in MJ per kilo thats 46 vs 1.8. Come on guys, everyone knows this stuff, its the reason you need to have hundreds of kilos of batteries to hold power levels less than a car made 30years ago.

September1 · 23-11-2012 05:18PM

CNG is only 9 MJ per liter - that is main limitation of this awesome fuel, sorry that I was not clear that I did not mean LPG. Last but not least my point was that those fuels are viable and already implemented around the world.

Matt Simis · 23-11-2012 05:24PM

September1 wrote: »

CNG is only 9 MJ per liter - that is main limitation of this awesome fuel, sorry that I was not clear that I did not mean LPG. Last but not least my point was that those fuels are viable and already implemented around the world.

Fair enough, but thats still like a factor of 5 more energy dense than horrifically expensive Lithium cells isnt it?

September1 · 23-11-2012 05:39PM

Matt Simis wrote: »

Fair enough, but thats still like a factor of 5 more energy dense than horrifically expensive Lithium cells isnt it?

Not really, you cannot convert all power in those fuels into motion unlike with electricity - hence actual energy is about 30% or 3 per liter which is close to actual LiIon territory. That is like EVs and thus we are going into limited range and limited space problem - I assure you EVs are not exactly best in loading space.

This is not only similarity, CNG in many countries can be compressed into tank at home and can be distributed by mains like electricity. CNG stations can be connected to both networks and would compress gas overnight when electricity is cheap and then they can store it in tanks for a day. Because gas can be so easily stored on the network, outages are rare comparing to electrical networks.

This similarities are reason I claim those technologies in practice are similar - CNG is EV with free batteries.

extremetaz · 23-11-2012 05:39PM

Matt Simis wrote: »

Fair enough, but thats still like a factor of 5 more energy dense than horrifically expensive Lithium cells isnt it?

...but what's the conversion efficiency of your drivetrain?...

not much use being 5x more energy dense when 80% of your energy is being lost as heat now it it.

NIMAN · 23-11-2012 05:53PM

beazee wrote: »

I've only heard the grant is towards Battery powered Electric Vehicles and Plug-in Hybrids.

More to be found at: http://www.seai.ie/Grants/Electric_Vehicle_Grant_Scheme

All the commercially available EVs in Ireland, including the Leaf, appear on that SEAI site, so does that mean the Leaf would really cost €20k?

Also wondering if there is going to be any real 2nd hand market for the likes of the Leaf, perhaps with dealers leasing you a new battery, or giving a warranty on the existing one?

September1 · 23-11-2012 05:56PM

NIMAN wrote: »

All the commercially available EVs in Ireland, including the Leaf, appear on that SEAI site, so does that mean the Leaf would really cost €20k?

Also wondering if there is going to be any real 2nd hand market for the likes of the Leaf, perhaps with dealers leasing you a new battery, or giving a warranty on the existing one?

This price includes grant, if LEAF was treated as any other A-band car it would cost 36k.

I do not think battery would be a problem in Irish climate, it may last quite long so battery replacement could far away. Second market price would depend on what second hand buyers think and are willing to pay though, not on facts.

Joe 90 · 23-11-2012 06:06PM

extremetaz wrote: »

I chortled.

Don't forget the ESB electrification of the country was well within living memory. I can remember the ESB coming to town and I'm only 62. I can remember Tilley lamps and people bringing 2 volt lead acid accumulators to have them charged for the wireless which probably only received Radio Eirin. Not that long ago at all.

Joe 90 · 23-11-2012 06:12PM

extremetaz wrote: »

...but what's the conversion efficiency of your drivetrain?...

not much use being 5x more energy dense when 80% of your energy is being lost as heat now it it.

Don't forget that although the drivetrain in an EV is really efficient that is only part of the story. You really have to start at the fuel delivered to the power station and work from there. Fuel to electricity, what efficiency. Transmission losses, what efficiency? Charging, what efficiency? Battery to wheels, what efficiency? Now multiply all those efficiencies and see what sort of number you get.

September1 · 23-11-2012 06:23PM

Joe 90 wrote: »

Don't forget that although the drivetrain in an EV is really efficient that is only part of the story. You really have to start at the fuel delivered to the power station and work from there. Fuel to electricity, what efficiency. Transmission losses, what efficiency? Charging, what efficiency? Battery to wheels, what efficiency? Now multiply all those efficiencies and see what sort of number you get.

Well, discussion is about how much energy you can store on board and use it for driving so most of those inefficiencies do not matter. Battery to wheel is key one.

Joe 90 · 23-11-2012 06:33PM

September1 wrote: »

Well, discussion is about how much energy you can store on board and use it for driving so most of those inefficiencies do not matter. Battery to wheel is key one.

Fair enough, battery to wheel is good. Only problems are battery energy density and recharge rate. Suppose we had an affordable battery which could store lots of power, say 400 miles worth and the battery itself could withstand being repeatedly charged in 5 minutes. If you think about it that is what you really wandt if the EV is to be acceptable to everyone. When I say affordable, the battery price has to be such that the whole vehicle is comparable price wise to an ICE powered vehicle.How thick are the charging cables going to be and how big a feed is going to be needed for a big filling station with eight or ten 'pumps' ? I reckon you might need something thicker than an electric welder cable going to the car.:D

23-11-2012 07:54PM

Joe 90 wrote: »

Don't forget the ESB electrification of the country was well within living memory. I can remember the ESB coming to town and I'm only 62. I can remember Tilley lamps and people bringing 2 volt lead acid accumulators to have them charged for the wireless which probably only received Radio Eirin. Not that long ago at all.

Jaysus, Tilley lamps LOL I remember me mother talking bout them yokes, leccy came here in 1960's I think.

23-11-2012 07:58PM

LPG is great except for the tax, and I'm not sure the Prius can be converted ? if it could it would nearly half my fuel costs, I've no problem with that, and I'd make my money back in a year or less, but it could still be cheaper.

Give me any cheap fuel, but nothing compares to electricity, or charging from your own renewable energy !

September1 · 23-11-2012 08:07PM

Deleted User wrote: »

LPG is great except for the tax, and I'm not sure the Prius can be converted ? if it could it would nearly half my fuel costs, I've no problem with that, and I'd make my money back in a year or less, but it could still be cheaper.

Give me any cheap fuel, but nothing compares to electricity, or charging from your own renewable energy !

Yes, Prius (at least 2nd gen) has been converted in past, it has also place in boot for LPG tank. You can also get extra batteries to make it plug in hybrid. It seems that is enough space to do both so you should be able to get 90 mpg of fuel that costs half price...

September1 · 23-11-2012 08:25PM

Joe 90 wrote: »

Fair enough, battery to wheel is good. Only problems are battery energy density and recharge rate. Suppose we had an affordable battery which could store lots of power, say 400 miles worth and the battery itself could withstand being repeatedly charged in 5 minutes. If you think about it that is what you really wandt if the EV is to be acceptable to everyone. When I say affordable, the battery price has to be such that the whole vehicle is comparable price wise to an ICE powered vehicle.How thick are the charging cables going to be and how big a feed is going to be needed for a big filling station with eight or ten 'pumps' ? I reckon you might need something thicker than an electric welder cable going to the car.:D

Why would I want EVs to be acceptable to everyone? Do you have problem with ICEs? Consider that someone might just prefer to use ICE for sentimental reasons.

23-11-2012 08:29PM

Joe 90 wrote: »

Fair enough, battery to wheel is good. Only problems are battery energy density and recharge rate. Suppose we had an affordable battery which could store lots of power, say 400 miles worth and the battery itself could withstand being repeatedly charged in 5 minutes. If you think about it that is what you really wandt if the EV is to be acceptable to everyone. When I say affordable, the battery price has to be such that the whole vehicle is comparable price wise to an ICE powered vehicle.How thick are the charging cables going to be and how big a feed is going to be needed for a big filling station with eight or ten 'pumps' ? I reckon you might need something thicker than an electric welder cable going to the car.:D

I'll say it time and time again ! recharge time is far more important than carrying around a over sized battery that you will not need most of the time.

Once a car can do a real 150 miles, I think that is the sweet spot for many, but with 5 min recharge times even 100 miles will do most people.

The Tesla model S has around 350-400 miles range and can recharge in an hour.

If you can recharge at your destination, then why do you need a 300-400 mile battery ?? how many people drive 300 miles in a day ? and straight back again ?

I must admit though the ESB need to get their finger out of their asses and start installing fast chargers as it's laughable the amount that is installed now.

23-11-2012 08:42PM

September1 wrote: »

Yes, Prius (at least 2nd gen) has been converted in past, it has also place in boot for LPG tank. You can also get extra batteries to make it plug in hybrid. It seems that is enough space to do both so you should be able to get 90 mpg of fuel that costs half price...

I'd never get a payback on retrofitting batteries because I couldn't buy in bulk like auto companies. And there is no grant in Ireland like the U.S for such a conversion.

LPG is worth consideration, but I'm hoping to get a full position at work and if I can convince them to install a charge point, then it's EV all the way for me. I can't really see them refusing considering they boast all the time about how energy efficient the building is and it consumes a huge amount of electricity that charging e.v wouldn't even be noticed. And they already have full time sparks on site.

Id even seriously consider a 2nd hand leaf with a decent battery, so take note all you Leaf owners and be nice to your battery !

You are talking at least 7-10000 Euro's for such a conversion, another 6500 would get me a new Zoe E.V. or less considering trade in.

Matt Simis · 23-11-2012 09:37PM

Deleted User wrote: »

LPG is great except for the tax

Tax? LPG has nothing to do with (motor) tax.

Deleted User wrote: »

Give me any cheap fuel, but nothing compares to electricity, or charging from your own renewable energy !

Think outside the EV box for minute.
Refueling at home from your locally produced LPG easily "beats this". Whats even better is you could have:

- LPG tank at home
- Fuel for both car and home heating, low emission, energy dense
- Home heating with CHP LPG boiler providing off-grid electric power as a byproduct of heat generation (or vice versa pending viewpoint).

That kicks the ass of plugging into our slightly emission $hitty national grid and utilising our extremely expensive electric rates doesnt it?

Not only is it doable today, it also means you dont have to drive something as awful as a Prius (think not just MPG and oh yes it is) and can avail of a cheap, low emission and high performance fuel an engine type.

Im a big proponent of Wind and Solar off grid power supply and therefore Im well aware, as you should be, that Renewables at best get close to an average household's energy needs, but you have no chance of realistically charging a car in any reasonable timeframe (with or without the household consumption too).

I get you guys are passionate about EVs, but you really have blinkers on and try and force fit it into every scenario. Im a proponent of the mixed bag energy sphere.

Leaf price drop - game changer?

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