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Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Wolfe_IRE wrote: »
    They are made up of meteorologists and ex UKMO staff, musicman. I would class them as reputable.

    http://www.britishweatherservices.co.uk/contact-us/contact/

    interesting times ahead so:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,245 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Wolfe_IRE wrote: »
    http://www.britishweatherservices.co.uk/deepening-winter-on-target-for-ukireland/
    It takes a lot to get there and for every flap of the Earth’s weather wings it doesn’t take a lot to push us back off course. However, the signs are becoming increasingly strong for western Europe including the UK and Ireland entering into a deepening winter scenario. Even the latest upper air computer modelling is attempting to jump onboard ……and from more than one source


    Having the Atlantic blocking high presures in the right place means we open to the doors to the Arctic and later perhaps Siberia - and that’s just what we are seeing in the medium term. It remains early days, but we are currently 65/35 in favour of significantly colder than average temperatures and spells of snow taking hold for the final third of November. Please continue to watch the space!

    Post of the day!!! Getting a LITTLE excited now... :-P


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    NEVER seen them do such a statement! .... 2010 rerun precautionary action??????? :D:pac:


    tumblr_lm11bt4OaK1qe6xr2.gif

    tumblr_mcl0gvAMmc1rqaclv.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    leahyl wrote: »
    Post of the day!!! Getting a LITTLE excited now... :-P

    i was gonna post earlier... " leahyl might faint when she sees today's links! " :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,245 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    i was gonna post earlier... " leahyl might faint when she sees today's links! " :rolleyes:

    I think the 'smiley' you were looking for was :pac:


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 309 ✭✭Wolfe_IRE


    leahyl wrote: »
    Post of the day!!! Getting a LITTLE excited now... :-P

    Just saw this from the UKMO, Leahyl. Looks like Cork will miss out
    227775.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,245 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Wolfe_IRE wrote: »
    Just saw this from the UKMO, Leahyl. Looks like Cork will miss out

    :eek::(

    Damn you Wolfe_IRE, DAMN YOU TO HELL!!:mad:..........:pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 78 ✭✭srmambo


    Wolfe the forecast graphic that you have posted is the first one I have seen in a long time whereas snow instead of rain was shown near the east coast :P


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 309 ✭✭Wolfe_IRE


    this better?
    227790.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Sorry about the repost of the net weater video. Nice catch on that Iancar.
    I do most my browsing on my phones packet data. So alot of the links with no description as to what ther are never get clicked, it can be terrible slow, some of the links are pictures of babies sucking a sudder while marty King says watch out for snow in 'enter village unknow to the rest of the country' or trains ploughing snow (Looking at you Mr Bob). The pointless pics and gifs that clog most internet forums just waste data limits. But work is paying so i do check the odd ones :)

    A repost of an article is not as bad as the pointless banter that could be done through pm ;)

    Its all harmless tho and in good nature but it makes for hard reading when you see you have 6-7 pages to catch up on.

    Keep up the good work guys. I'll try to keep up.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 152 ✭✭catch.23


    Nabber wrote: »
    Sorry about the repost of the net weater video. Nice catch on that Iancar.
    I do most my browsing on my phones packet data. So alot of the links with no description as to what ther are never get clicked, it can be terrible slow, some of the links are pictures of babies sucking a sudder while marty King says watch out for snow in 'enter village unknow to the rest of the country' or trains ploughing snow (Looking at you Mr Bob). The pointless pics and gifs that clog most internet forums just waste data limits. But work is paying so i do check the odd ones :)

    A repost of an article is not as bad as the pointless banter that could be done through pm ;)

    Its all harmless tho and in good nature but it makes for hard reading when you see you have 6-7 pages to catch up on.

    Keep up the good work guys. I'll try to keep up.

    It might be an idea to have seperate serious and chat threads tosave everyone this hassle!


  • Registered Users Posts: 477 ✭✭blackbird99


    i don't think you'll see a much straighter front
    8168281649_6b9eec7542.jpg
    Untitled by blackbird1973, on Flickr


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    PLEASE USE THE LET IT SNOW, RAMPING THREAD FOR FUN.

    LEAVE THIS ONE FOR THE MORE SERIOUS STUFF.
    THANKS.
    POSTS WILL SIMPLY BE DELETED.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    My hunch is that we will see our winter before the end of the year and not in the new year. The warm SST anomaly in the NW Atlantic is eroding week by week, reducing the chances of Greenland blocking and a negative NAO. Blocking highs would then be more likely over eastern Europe/Scandinavia, which would mean a more E/SE rather than N/NE flow component, with less sea fetch and cold but drier conditions. We are due a SSW event, but if Greenland blocking were not in place I wonder if such an event would have the same effect here as previously. We could be on the warm side of blocking.

    Therefore I think conditions for prolonged snow are best now and are lessening the further into winter we get. The same pattern to 2010/11 might be on the cards, with the cold and snow pre-xmas (though nor as severe) and milder thereafter.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 309 ✭✭Wolfe_IRE


    No snow for the next 10-14 days at least. Huge uncertainty in relation to beyond this period although I presently see an unsettled southwesterly setup as the most likely setup. Will keep you posted on the inevitable changes that will occur to this longer term outlook.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    We have a very pronounced return to a positive NAO and with it an Atlantic system conveyor belt at present (not forecast to last but VERY pronounced). Furthermore the ice extent down along the east coast of Greenland is ahead of long term trends for this precise time of year.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Nabber wrote: »
    I do most my browsing on my phones packet data. So alot of the links with no description as to what ther are never get clicked, it can be terrible slow, some of the links are pictures of babies sucking a sudder while marty King says watch out for snow in 'enter village unknow to the rest of the country' or trains ploughing snow (Looking at you Mr Bob). The pointless pics and gifs that clog most internet forums just waste data limits. But work is paying so i do check the odd ones :)

    1. Use m.boards.ie and not touch.boards.ie this will not pull in graphics and eat data allowances.
    2. Thats entirely your fault for going into an FI thread which is full of very graphic snowpr0n ....and also where I posted that CIE Snowplough Train vid you are complaining about.

    Stay away from FI threads full of graphic snowpr0n in future...m'kay! :p


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 152 ✭✭catch.23


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    1. Use m.boards.ie and not touch.boards.ie this will not pull in graphics and eat data allowances.
    2. Thats entirely your fault for going into an FI thread which is full of very graphic snowpr0n ....and also where I posted that CIE Snowplough Train vid you are complaining about.

    Stay away from FI threads full of graphic snowpr0n in future...m'kay! :p

    To be fair, the FI thread should be ok usually because the charts are very small files, the memes are the problem usually.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    some good and bad news, The ECMWF Seasonal update is good going for a mild wet Winter, Then the ECMWF monthly outlook is still going for a blocked cold outlook for the end of November into Early December.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    850 hPa temps and mean sea level pressure pattern for 6z today, and for 6z this day in 2010. From Vedur.is:

    animation_4.gif


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 309 ✭✭Wolfe_IRE


    storm carmen 2nd anniversary is two days away. that was the precursor to our first cold outbreak of 2010

    UKMO UPDATE
    UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Nov 2012 to Saturday 8 Dec 2012:

    As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that the changeable conditions will continue through the start of this forecast period. There is also a signal for temperatures to be close to or just below the seasonal average. Into December, although there are no strong indications that any particular weather type is going to dominate, on balance colder, drier conditions are favoured, rather than milder, wetter weather, especially across the southern half of the UK.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Wolfe_IRE wrote: »
    storm carmen 2nd anniversary is two days away. that was the precursor to our first cold outbreak of 2010

    UKMO UPDATE
    UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Nov 2012 to Saturday 8 Dec 2012:

    As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that the changeable conditions will continue through the start of this forecast period. There is also a signal for temperatures to be close to or just below the seasonal average. Into December, although there are no strong indications that any particular weather type is going to dominate, on balance colder, drier conditions are favoured, rather than milder, wetter weather, especially across the southern half of the UK.

    So by reading that they haven't a clue:)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    I've been keeping an eye on this storm over the past few days and its consistently showing up on the GFS runs, it swings away to the north before it really hits us but track and intensity will obviously change a lot. It'll probably come to nothing but its something to watch while there's little else of interest happening

    gfs-0-192_gjc3.png

    A few ensemble runs take it right over us

    gens-6-1-192_dqh0.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Still showing up on 12z but further tracking further north. As said, too far out but something to watch for interest sake.

    227885.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,259 ✭✭✭Tindie


    WOW, No one posted anything for about 24 hours, what everyone doing their Xmas Shopping before we snowed in lol


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 152 ✭✭catch.23


    Tindie wrote: »
    WOW, No one posted anything for about 24 hours, what everyone doing their Xmas Shopping before we snowed in lol

    No, the thread got deemed technical discussion so the chat all moved away. And given that the charts aren't showing much of any interest at the moment, it's hard to have a technical discussion!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    catch.23 wrote: »
    No, the thread got deemed technical discussion so the chat all moved away. And given that the charts aren't showing much of any interest at the moment, it's hard to have a technical discussion!

    Yeah its very quiet and the signs are not good, a cooling strat, no hint of anything cold for the next few weeks anyway, Its still early days so wouldn't panic to much just yet, lets hope its not a repeat of last winter.


  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭Caff Caff


    Yes, I was just going to post that the lack of posts is mot exactly the 'blocking'some are looking for. I see accuweather do not see any snow between now and the first week of December although they had forecast for snow on the 27th and 30th. Boooo! Although there is little to write about with regards to models I am pleased, at the very least, that signs are indicating cold. Wet and cold is certainly better than the droll setup we experienced last year. At least it will feel like winter this time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    its so cold in drogheda at the min frost on the cars a lovely crisp nite


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  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭Caff Caff


    gfs-2012111106-9-384.png?6
    GFS 6z is showing a progression to colder 2m temps creeping it's way westerly across eastern Europe. Keep coming...PUSH!!!!


This discussion has been closed.
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