Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Joe Public

Another one for the pot

http://www.skiing.ie/news/ireland-snow-2012/

jimmy.d

Seasonal outlook - November 06, 2012


A green Christmas?
Winter late January
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Helvetica]Issued: Tuesday 6th November 2012 [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Helvetica]Duty forecasters: Captain Bob [/FONT]



December
The first 'meteorological' month of winter 2012/13 opens on a rather cool to chilly note, characterised by a brisk north-westerly to northerly flow, this bringing a mixture of rain, sleet and some wintriness to northern mountains, as pressure rises from the southwest and ridges across southern Britain, the flow orientates to a less cold, but generally cloudier west to south-westerly point, outbreaks of rain spreading across all western and north-western areas of the UK, the south and southeast becoming drier.

Further unsettled weather crosses the UK through the second week with wet and windy conditions expected in all areas, as low pressure clears to the east colder, polar air extends south through all regions on a brisk northerly, showers turning wintry and a return to night time frosts can be anticipated as high pressure builds and the winds fall light for a time.

High pressure slips away to the south with a mainly westerly flow returning across all areas, cloudier with outbreaks of rain crossing all areas through the mid-month period. High pressure builds back across the southern slice of the UK during the third week so the conditions once again settle and cool, once again though it won't be too long before further wet and windy weather erodes any fine early winter conditions.

There is some evidence that the settled and cold pattern may hold fast, however this is not strong enough to suggest anything other than that at this stage it looks as if Christmas may be 'green' with rather unsettled and wet and windy conditions extending through all regions, this lasting into the period juts prior to New Year, when it does look highly likely to turn much colder.


January 2013
The New Year begins on a cold and sunny note, polar air flooding south across all areas as low pressure clears away to the east, expect a few days of chilly and bright conditions, real winter is perhaps yet to show its face with any edge.

The first week to ten days of the month look likely to be rather 'Atlantic', cool rather than cold but characterised by rather cloudy weather with outbreaks of rain for all of us. Rather windy at times across northern and western Britain but calmer at times across the south, closest to a ridge of high pressure, the extreme south and east perhaps most favoured for any brighter conditions given some shelter, form the westerly breeze.

Mid month see the 'teeth of winter' biting down through all areas, polar air flooding south packing in wintry showers or longer spells of rain, sleet and snow, so winter in its unfettered guise arriving on a strong northerly. High pressure is anticipated to be building to the north and east, extending a ridge southwest across the UK, a cold northeast to easterly developing across southern Britain, the potential for wintry conditions increasing here. This wintry and unsettled regime looks likely to remain the dominant theme throughout the remainder of January.

Captain Bob
Email me at simon.keeling@weatheronline.co.uk

Nabber

Interesting video from Stewart Rampling (netweather)

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-thoughts-2012;sess=

Not The Winter Forecast - Early Winter Thoughts & Discussion

Early Signals Pointing To A Colder Than Average Winter

Netweathers long range forecaster Stewart Rampling gives his early thoughts for the Winter of 2012/13 as he prepares to issue the full Winter forecast later this month. This fairly technical video goes into detail about some of the indicators that Stewart expects to drive and shape the weather patterns during the upcoming winter. You can also view the powerpoint presentation beneath the video player.

Please Note - This isn't a forecast, it is purely an explanation of Stewart's preliminary/early thoughts and a discussion piece.

Iancar29

Joe Public wrote: »

Another one for the pot

http://www.skiing.ie/news/ireland-snow-2012/

Nabber wrote: »

Interesting video from Stewart Rampling (netweather)

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-thoughts-2012;sess=

Yous not read the thread before yous post no?? :rolleyes:

Joe Public

Winter 2012 -13? with 103 pages

Saganist

Joe Public wrote: »

Winter 2012 -13? with 103 pages

39 pages for me. You should set your page view to max..

Caff Caff

For the last few days now my accuweather app has been saying snow and rain from the 27th of November. -1°c with real feel -4/-5. I know it is accuweather but it was spot on yhe lasy few years I've had it on the phone. Awfully mild tonight... I really cannot stand the thoughts of another mild winter!

Iancar29

Caff Caff wrote: »

For the last few days now my accuweather app has been saying snow and rain from the 27th of November. -1°c with real feel -4/-5. I know it is accuweather but it was spot on yhe lasy few years I've had it on the phone. Awfully mild tonight... I really cannot stand the thoughts of another mild winter!

Could be some truth in that according to the Met Office update i post up above and also tonights ensembles teasing us in FI

Chiqqi

Here ya go...get your snow boots ready.
http://www.donegaldaily.com/2012/10/23/donegals-famous-weatherman-predicts-snow-before-christmas/

Sponge Bob

There is a WHOLE THREAD on that story FFS

cherryghost

Chiqqi wrote: »

Here ya go...get your snow boots ready.
http://www.donegaldaily.com/2012/10/23/donegals-famous-weatherman-predicts-snow-before-christmas/

StormGazer.11

Joe Public wrote: »

Winter 2012 -13? with 103 pages

You don't have to read all 103 pages but reading at least the ones from the last week or two to get up to date with what's going on in here would be an idea. As you can see its gets annoying for the regulars when the same stuff (especially when it's not worth the paper it's written on) is posted numerous times and I'm not having a go at you just giving you some advice. I'm by no means an expert either, couldn't even really call myself am enthusiast as I don't have the knowledge, I'm still more of a weather fan

average_runner

Caff Caff wrote: »

For the last few days now my accuweather app has been saying snow and rain from the 27th of November. -1°c with real feel -4/-5. I know it is accuweather but it was spot on yhe lasy few years I've had it on the phone. Awfully mild tonight... I really cannot stand the thoughts of another mild winter!

It has rain for that day in Dublin and plus 7 in temp

Wolfe_IRE

Despite scattered outbreaks of light rain and drizzle in parts yesterday, November has seen below average precipitation. Next week looks like redressing this as numerous Atlantic frontal systems will cross the country during the early days of the week. This UK Met Office Fax Chart for Monday shows Ireland under the influence of milder southwesterlies. However, outbreaks of rain will occur during Monday and Tuesday in particular. Temps will be drop back to average or slightly below average for the time of year around the midweek period.

NIALL D

"then possibly colder towards the end of November with the risk of snow increasing" , i like this bit from MT this morning...:)

Deep Easterly

StormGazer.11 wrote: »

You don't have to read all 103 pages but reading at least the ones from the last week or two to get up to date with what's going on in here would be an idea. As you can see its gets annoying for the regulars when the same stuff (especially when it's not worth the paper it's written on) is posted numerous times and I'm not having a go at you just giving you some advice.

I propose that we open up a separate thread to allow posters to post up any of those long range media forecasts. May help to keep this thread a bit tidier and less 'contentious' + the links to the forecasts would be easier to find in the other thread. Just an idea.

torrential1

NIALL D wrote: »

"then possibly colder towards the end of November with the risk of snow increasing" , i like this bit from MT this morning...:)

If any other forecaster put a comment like that into their forecasts it would be ripped to bits in here by the 'experts'. I respect M.T. but am I the only one who feels that he sometimes puts out random forecasts to keep the snow lovers / extreme weather freaks among us happy.... a bit obvious saying that if it gets colder at end of the month then snow chances increase... it will be the end of November so yes the chances of snow do increase!

Sponge Bob

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I propose that we open up a separate thread to allow posters to post up any of those long range media forecasts.

I agree with the idea of a seasonal ( multimonth) forecasting thread for winter and summer anyway ......but it still won't stop the 'Oh look what I just found' muppets from reposting the same tabloid cack again and again.

Bad MT, feeding the gullible. This place ain't the Daily Express...or is it ???

munsterlegend

torrential1 wrote: »

If any other forecaster put a comment like that into their forecasts it would be ripped to bits in here by the 'experts'. I respect M.T. but am I the only one who feels that he sometimes puts out random forecasts to keep the snow lovers / extreme weather freaks among us happy.... a bit obvious saying that if it gets colder at end of the month then snow chances increase... it will be the end of November so yes the chances of snow do increase!

i don't think that's fair. he has been saying it will get significantly milder in his forecasts for the last number of days but as per the UK met office outlook it does appear from their analysis that temperatures will fall significantly towards the end of the month.

Caff Caff

average_runner wrote: »

It has rain for that day in Dublin and plus 7 in temp

Yes. +7 with real feel +4 and that night it will be +1 with real feel -3. It is snow and rain and it was Dublin I was talking about. The 30th is to be slightly colder with , again PERIODS of snow and rain. A bit far out for any forecasting but accuweather has been right so far as I keep track of it's accuracy. Still, nothing incredibly interesting about it. Models do not seem to be changing much either. I did dream of blocking the other night but Freud says that's sexual...

gbee

Caff Caff wrote: »

I did dream of blocking the other night but Freud says that's sexual...

Don't know it, a dream is a dream, we need them all.

drdeadlift

so when is it going to snow people!

Wolfe_IRE

Accuweather forecasts are based on GFS operational data. GFS does indicate a cold end to the month although UKMO video a few posts down says otherwise

Interesting article here on accuracy comparisons between the GEFS and ECMWF
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/why-are-the-models-so-inaccurate/18097

Caff Caff

[QUOTEV=Wolfe_IRE;81647373]Accuweather forecasts are based on GEFS data. GEFS does indicate a cold end to the month

Interesting article here on accuracy comparisons between the GEFS and ECMWF
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/why-are-the-models-so-inaccurate/18097[/QUOTE]

Very much so. Thank you for the post. This is certainly something to remember for the model watchers:
All of this, while enlightening, may be depressing to weather enthusiasts who watch models. There is no easy solution to these problems and models will continue to be fairly inaccurate into the foreseeable future. Here's a few things you can remember while examining model data, featuring products which are available on our Pro site
 (join today and get the rest of winter* free!).
1. Be wary of forecasts that are only on one model. If nearly every model is on board with a solution, then you can be more confident in your forecast. Look at all the models, preferably on one map.
2. Look at model trends. If the low pressure moved east with this run, what did it do the run before that? For the GFS, look at a couple days of 00Z and 12Z runs for consistency. Avoid the 06Z and 18Z runs when 00 or 12 is available; in the U.S. these runs don't include the weather balloon network data (balloons are only sent up twice per day), and are therefore radically different and more likely to have bias.
3. Remember that accuracy generally decreases with increasing time, decreasing resolution, and for snowfall (because snow is around 10 times the rainfall equivalent). Remember this when you're looking at a course 15-day forecast of snowfall (read my blog on White Christmas inaccuracy
).
4. Ensembles help mitigate inaccuracy. If possible, look at the Ensembles instead of just one model. These exist for the GFS, Canadian, WRF, NMM and SREF models. As I've explained before
, Ensembles take the same model and run it several times with slightly different input. This gives a range of possibilities and lets you know how "confident" the model is in itself.
5. The models have now built in new output to do things that meteorologists used to have to do in their heads. This includes precip type, snowfall amounts, and severe weather probability. Don't stay stuck on that 500 mb chart calculating thickness; save time and check out these other newer products.

Wolfe_IRE

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/20257405

Have been indicating for the past few weeks that some computer models have been indicating a cold end to the month of November with increasing signs that our airmass could originate from the east. The UK Met Office, normally quite reserved in relation to the weather prospects beyond five days, has today indicated that such a setup is now possible.

:eek::eek::eek:

Iancar29

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/20257405

:eek::eek::eek:

NEVER seen them do such a statement! .... 2010 rerun precautionary action??????? :pac:

Musicman2000

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/20257405

:eek::eek::eek:

Its unusual that they posted a video up predicting cold, some of the models did hint of this but changed again, and their monthly outlook has being saying this the last few weeks, are they seeing something we are not? and MT hinted today that the end of the month could see snow.

Wolfe_IRE

http://www.britishweatherservices.co.uk/deepening-winter-on-target-for-ukireland/
It takes a lot to get there and for every flap of the Earth’s weather wings it doesn’t take a lot to push us back off course. However, the signs are becoming increasingly strong for western Europe including the UK and Ireland entering into a deepening winter scenario. Even the latest upper air computer modelling is attempting to jump onboard ……and from more than one source


Having the Atlantic blocking high presures in the right place means we open to the doors to the Arctic and later perhaps Siberia - and that’s just what we are seeing in the medium term. It remains early days, but we are currently 65/35 in favour of significantly colder than average temperatures and spells of snow taking hold for the final third of November. Please continue to watch the space!

Musicman2000

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

http://www.britishweatherservices.co.uk/deepening-winter-on-target-for-ukireland/
It takes a lot to get there and for every flap of the Earth’s weather wings it doesn’t take a lot to push us back off course. However, the signs are becoming increasingly strong for western Europe including the UK and Ireland entering into a deepening winter scenario. Even the latest upper air computer modelling is attempting to jump onboard ……and from more than one source


Having the Atlantic blocking high presures in the right place means we open to the doors to the Arctic and later perhaps Siberia - and that’s just what we are seeing in the medium term. It remains early days, but we are currently 65/35 in favour of significantly colder than average temperatures and spells of snow taking hold for the final third of November. Please continue to watch the space!

Who are these guys Wolfe? have they a decent rep? or are they the James Madden type:)

Wolfe_IRE

They are made up of meteorologists and ex UKMO staff, musicman. I would class them as reputable.

http://www.britishweatherservices.co.uk/contact-us/contact/