Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

mcriot29 · 10-06-2012 02:17PM #1

I know its summer but any one have any views on the signs for 2012 winter , i think a pos Nao so a mild standerd winter for ireland
Link belOw about winter
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?#38;showtopic=26562&st=300

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delw · 10-06-2012 04:58PM

Seriously??? :eek:
I love winter but come on it's only June

K_1 · 10-06-2012 05:14PM

delw wrote: »

Seriously??? :eek:
I love winter but come on it's only June

I think last years thread started in June. Anyway given our luck last winter we'll get as much snow this summer as we will this winter. :P

Elmer Blooker · 10-06-2012 11:31PM

when you see a chart like this in mid summer you can be be certain that there will be a big azores high around next winter. The Irish climate will never cease to disappoint !

tylercollins · 11-06-2012 07:13AM

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

when you see a chart like this in mid summer you can be be certain that there will be a big azores high around next winter. The Irish climate will never cease to disappoint !

Can you explain what that means exactly? Thanks!

A quick Google of that, does this mean that it will be a very mild winter because of the subtropical high? Or something along those lines lol

Birdnuts · 11-06-2012 07:21AM

tylercollins wrote: »

Can you explain what that means exactly? Thanks!

A quick Google of that, does this mean that it will be a very mild winter because of the subtropical high? Or something along those lines lol

Basically the danger of another snorefest on the scale of last winter!!

K_1 · 11-06-2012 10:26PM

tylercollins wrote: »

Can you explain what that means exactly? Thanks!

A quick Google of that, does this mean that it will be a very mild winter because of the subtropical high? Or something along those lines lol

To put it very basically (and not all that accurately!):

Azores high in summer - warm.
Azores high in winter - mild muck.

Greenland high in summer - cool cloudy, wet (i.e. current conditions)
Greenland high in winter - snow fest.

They always happen the wrong way around.

Lucreto · 12-06-2012 12:59PM

James Madden the Soothsayer predicted this coming Winter.

I strongly emphasised on the strong winds throughout the winter period of 2011/12 in August, before any other suggestions from any other forecaster. I also suggest that unusually strong winds will again be problematic at times during the upcoming autumn/winter period too.
As for next winter, the Met Office representation/scientist who stated “we are currently expecting a series of milder winters” will be incorrect about the upcoming 2012/2013 winter (Aired BBC 2 - 6th November 2011).
I also expect that the “series of milder winters” statement was made due to the unexpected rise in solar activity during the late part of 2011, and the expected rises being forecast by other professional bodies for the future (when I have consistently argued otherwise).
I expect large parts of this winter to be very cold and exceptionally snowy in comparison to last year (forecasting confidence is quite high). I also expect these conditions to arrive earlier, rather than later this winter. There may even be the potential for some of the coldest/snowiest conditions in at least a century at times within the upcoming winter. More detailed information to follow on this shortly in the UK winter 2012-13 forecast/updates.

You heard it here first another mild winter this year.:D

mcriot29 · 12-06-2012 01:37PM

Lucreto wrote: »

James Madden the Soothsayer predicted this coming Winter.

I strongly emphasised on the strong winds throughout the winter period of 2011/12 in August, before any other suggestions from any other forecaster. I also suggest that unusually strong winds will again be problematic at times during the upcoming autumn/winter period too.
As for next winter, the Met Office representation/scientist who stated “we are currently expecting a series of milder winters” will be incorrect about the upcoming 2012/2013 winter (Aired BBC 2 - 6th November 2011).
I also expect that the “series of milder winters” statement was made due to the unexpected rise in solar activity during the late part of 2011, and the expected rises being forecast by other professional bodies for the future (when I have consistently argued otherwise).
I expect large parts of this winter to be very cold and exceptionally snowy in comparison to last year (forecasting confidence is quite high). I also expect these conditions to arrive earlier, rather than later this winter. There may even be the potential for some of the coldest/snowiest conditions in at least a century at times within the upcoming winter. More detailed information to follow on this shortly in the UK winter 2012-13 forecast/updates.

You heard it here first another mild winter this year.:D

Wonder what the postman will have to say on this winter , anyone know what his summer forecast is , joe b us going for a cold winter this year , mark vogan is already droping hints on this winter seems to ve saying it wont be mild

dopolahpec · 12-06-2012 02:34PM

Winter 2012/2013 - and we haven't even passed the solstice.

This is just depressing.

I mean there's weather enthusiasm, then there's unhealthy, dare I say obsessive fixation on snow and ice, to think people would be wishing away the summer dreaming of what may come in December...

mcriot29 · 12-06-2012 03:15PM

dopolahpec wrote: »

Winter 2012/2013 - and we haven't even passed the solstice.

This is just depressing.

I mean there's weather enthusiasm, then there's unhealthy, dare I say obsessive fixation on snow and ice, to think people would be wishing away the summer dreaming of what may come in December...

You mean come in oct not dec lol thats if you go by madmans forecast a snowy oct
Hard to wish this summer away when its just like winter was 13c and dull seems we have not had any summer or winter been 13 c winter and summer

Lucreto · 12-06-2012 04:46PM

mcriot29 wrote: »

Wonder what the postman will have to say on this winter , anyone know what his summer forecast is , joe b us going for a cold winter this year , mark vogan is already droping hints on this winter seems to ve saying it wont be mild

Everyone but the postman said it was going to be a cold Winter but it turned out one of the warmest.

This is what Michael Gallagher said at the end of March

http://www.donegaldaily.com/2012/03/28/dont-buy-any-more-suncream-just-yet-donegal-weatherman/

He wasn't far off.

dopolahpec wrote: »

Winter 2012/2013 - and we haven't even passed the solstice.

This is just depressing.

I mean there's weather enthusiasm, then there's unhealthy, dare I say obsessive fixation on snow and ice, to think people would be wishing away the summer dreaming of what may come in December...

Not everyone likes Summer. I prefer Winter and I just tolerate Summer.

I go by the phrase It easy to escape the cold in Winter but hard to escape the heat in Summer. Air conditioning is not worthwhile in Ireland as temperatures never reach too high for very long and we have to suffer through it when it does.

This Summer so far hasn't been too bad only a handful of hot days.

mcriot29 · 12-06-2012 05:02PM

Lucreto wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

Wonder what the postman will have to say on this winter , anyone know what his summer forecast is , joe b us going for a cold winter this year , mark vogan is already droping hints on this winter seems to ve saying it wont be mild

Everyone but the postman said it was going to be a cold Winter but it turned out one of the warmest.

This is what Michael Gallagher said at the end of March

http://www.donegaldaily.com/2012/03/28/dont-buy-any-more-suncream-just-yet-donegal-weatherman/

He wasn't far off.

dopolahpec wrote: »

Winter 2012/2013 - and we haven't even passed the solstice.

This is just depressing.

I mean there's weather enthusiasm, then there's unhealthy, dare I say obsessive fixation on snow and ice, to think people would be wishing away the summer dreaming of what may come in December...

Not everyone likes Summer. I prefer Winter and I just tolerate Summer.

I go by the phrase It easy to escape the cold in Winter but hard to escape the heat in Summer. Air conditioning is not worthwhile in Ireland as temperatures never reach too high for very long and we have to suffer through it when it does.

This Summer so far hasn't been too bad only a handful of hot days.

Be great if someone could set up a website for the postmans predictions , wouldent take much even a blog, and he was the only forecaster to be spot on

Deep Easterly · 12-06-2012 10:05PM

Lucreto wrote: »

I go by the phrase It easy to escape the cold in Winter but hard to escape get a bit of heat in Summer

Fixed ye phrase

Lucreto · 12-06-2012 10:26PM

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Fixed ye phrase

Seems like that for the last few year.:D

JJJJNR · 12-06-2012 10:36PM

Great hope we have loads of 10c days in the winter, just like the summer..

gbee · 13-06-2012 12:54AM

Birdnuts wrote: »

Basically the danger of another snorefest on the scale of last winter!!

We are in a seven year cold snap, last year we [in Ireland] were haunted that the blocking high kept the cold away ~ record cold last winter, we will see one or two bad winters before we return to our usual snorefest.

mcriot29 · 13-06-2012 10:06PM

gbee wrote: »

Birdnuts wrote: »

Basically the danger of another snorefest on the scale of last winter!!

We are in a seven year cold snap, last year we [in Ireland] were haunted that the blocking high kept the cold away ~ record cold last winter, we will see one or two bad winters before we return to our usual snorefest.

What do you meAn 7 years why 7 , never heard of this before

Redsunset · 24-06-2012 09:51PM

Probably a big pile of poo but just for the record Joe Bastardi has the core of winter cold over the north west of Europe. We shall see.

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mcriot29 · 24-06-2012 10:47PM

redsunset wrote: »

Probably a big pile of poo but just for the record Joe Bastardi has the core of winter cold over the north west of Europe. We shall see.

Why is the north of ireland in white , and sum patchs around of white

Birdnuts · 24-06-2012 11:52PM

redsunset wrote: »

Probably a big pile of poo but just for the record Joe Bastardi has the core of winter cold over the north west of Europe. We shall see

So the polar opposite of last winter - I remain to be convinced!!

Kippure · 25-06-2012 10:57AM

redsunset wrote: »

Probably a big pile of poo but just for the record Joe Bastardi has the core of winter cold over the north west of Europe. We shall see.

Not at all, He predicited are severe winter 2010 into 2011. He was right. I,d say a similliar pressure pattern setup for this winter. High pressure south of greenland, stirring down cold north westerlies/easterlies.

tylercollins · 25-06-2012 11:00AM

mcriot29 wrote: »

Why is the north of ireland in white , and sum patchs around of white

Covered in snow

mcriot29 · 25-06-2012 01:07PM

tylercollins wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

Why is the north of ireland in white , and sum patchs around of white

Covered in snow

Yep hopefully,
I think joe b is going by the shift in the pdo did he not predict winters 2013-14-15 would be very cold for europe .
Anyone know when the postman gives his winter forecast ???
I have a book on the mini ice age winters and there seems to be a mild winter in between bad winters then, i expected last year to be a mild one i predict this winter could be a very cold one , funny how joe b is giving his ideas so early does he spot something like the daltion winters where

Min · 25-06-2012 08:15PM

Kippure wrote: »

Not at all, He predicited are severe winter 2010 into 2011. He was right. I,d say a similliar pressure pattern setup for this winter. High pressure south of greenland, stirring down cold north westerlies/easterlies.

He also said the cold last winter in Europe would be concentratred in south east Europe so he was fairly accurate.

Kippure · 26-06-2012 10:29AM

mcriot29 wrote: »

Yep hopefully,
I think joe b is going by the shift in the pdo did he not predict winters 2013-14-15 would be very cold for europe .
Anyone know when the postman gives his winter forecast ???
I have a book on the mini ice age winters and there seems to be a mild winter in between bad winters then, i expected last year to be a mild one i predict this winter could be a very cold one , funny how joe b is giving his ideas so early does he spot something like the daltion winters where

http://notrickszone.com/2010/09/10/joe-bastardi-future-shock-brutal-winters-ahead-from-2013-on-now-into-a-major-la-nina/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztuzbuiF6rE 46 minutes in he talks about Our future cold winters. But over all good speech

mcriot29 · 30-06-2012 09:04PM

Kippure wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

Yep hopefully,
I think joe b is going by the shift in the pdo did he not predict winters 2013-14-15 would be very cold for europe .
Anyone know when the postman gives his winter forecast ???
I have a book on the mini ice age winters and there seems to be a mild winter in between bad winters then, i expected last year to be a mild one i predict this winter could be a very cold one , funny how joe b is giving his ideas so early does he spot something like the daltion winters where

http://notrickszone.com/2010/09/10/joe-bastardi-future-shock-brutal-winters-ahead-from-2013-on-now-into-a-major-la-nina/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztuzbuiF6rE 46 minutes in he talks about Our future cold winters. But over all good speech

The idea of very cold winters gets me looking forward to this winter last year was just a blip in what will be the new mini ice age, well this summer being cold and wet goes along with mini ice age summers so just maybe we will see thecwhite stuff again this year

gbee · 30-06-2012 09:17PM

mcriot29 wrote: »

The idea of very cold winters gets me looking forward to this winter last year was just a blip in what will be the new mini ice age, well this summer being cold and wet goes along with mini ice age summers so just maybe we will see thecwhite stuff again this year

The Jet Stream and the blocking high was the only thing that 'saved' us for the Winter of 2011/12, a big freeze was hanging over us and just bursting to explode.

I'm buying a new set of tyre for my Jeep, mud n snow ones, I put road tyres on her last summer and all through the winter.

mcriot29 · 30-06-2012 10:56PM

gbee wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

The idea of very cold winters gets me looking forward to this winter last year was just a blip in what will be the new mini ice age, well this summer being cold and wet goes along with mini ice age summers so just maybe we will see thecwhite stuff again this year

The Jet Stream and the blocking high was the only thing that 'saved' us for the Winter of 2011/12, a big freeze was hanging over us and just bursting to explode.

I'm buying a new set of tyre for my Jeep, mud n snow ones, I put road tyres on her last summer and all through the winter.

Lets hope you get to make use of them this winter,Joe b seems to think this winter will be like 2009 hopefully wont be as dry 2010 saw more snow

desolate sun · 01-07-2012 02:51PM

mcriot29 wrote: »

I have a book on the mini ice age winters and there seems to be a mild winter in between bad winters e

Mcriot, what is this wonderful book you speak of?

would love to have a read of something like that, being a massive snow fan!

mcriot29 · 01-07-2012 03:04PM

desolate sun wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

I have a book on the mini ice age winters and there seems to be a mild winter in between bad winters e

Mcriot, what is this wonderful book you speak of? would love to have a read of something like that, being a massive snow fan!

Theres a few one is frozen in time by paul hudson,best one is frozen britain by gavin cooke below is about his book
http://www.sundaysun.co.uk/news/north-east-news/2010/12/05/author-claims-we-re-in-the-grip-of-a-mini-ice-age-79310-27768699/

Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

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